michael769
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- 9 Oct 2005
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Today we see the beginnings of high pressure building from the south. The buildup is not fast enough to prevent a ban of rain from crossing over the north of the country but will help to break the rain band up leaving it to be light and patchy in nature.
In the short term we can expect to see high pressure to the South and low to the North with a westerly flow in between. The creates the common summer pattern of settled and dry weather to the south and east with less settled damp and cloudy conditions in the north.
Things will begin to change though midweek as from Wednesday the high pressure will migrate Northwards as it builds further effectively shutting off both the jetstream and the westerly atlantic flow, bringing dry settled conditions with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will depend on the precise positioning of the high and the direction of air that it pulls in, but the most likely outcome is a warm one with it feeling very warm during the day in the sunshine, but with days shortening and clear skys we can expect temperatures to tumble away at night, giving the characteristically huge variations in day and night temperatures that tend to accompany settled weather in Spring and Autumn.
The settled weather is likely to persist through until at least the weekend - after that the computer models are offering us two very different scenarios. The American GFS model predicts a rebuilding of the jetstream as the high drifts off into Scandinavia opening the door to unsettled but very warm conditions, while the European ECMWF model keeps the high right over us bringing the prospect of a sustained period of dry and sunny weather albiet with the increasing likelihood of overnight mist and fog.
In the short term we can expect to see high pressure to the South and low to the North with a westerly flow in between. The creates the common summer pattern of settled and dry weather to the south and east with less settled damp and cloudy conditions in the north.
Things will begin to change though midweek as from Wednesday the high pressure will migrate Northwards as it builds further effectively shutting off both the jetstream and the westerly atlantic flow, bringing dry settled conditions with lots of sunshine. Temperatures will depend on the precise positioning of the high and the direction of air that it pulls in, but the most likely outcome is a warm one with it feeling very warm during the day in the sunshine, but with days shortening and clear skys we can expect temperatures to tumble away at night, giving the characteristically huge variations in day and night temperatures that tend to accompany settled weather in Spring and Autumn.
The settled weather is likely to persist through until at least the weekend - after that the computer models are offering us two very different scenarios. The American GFS model predicts a rebuilding of the jetstream as the high drifts off into Scandinavia opening the door to unsettled but very warm conditions, while the European ECMWF model keeps the high right over us bringing the prospect of a sustained period of dry and sunny weather albiet with the increasing likelihood of overnight mist and fog.
I would suggest 20-1 is more realistic. The last couple of years have missed by mere days and possibly even hours, so I think it could happen this year if those trends continue. Not that I would bet on it though.
