If the vaccine doesn't turn out to be very effective for now the apparent seasonality will help us get through the summer with little concern, then we should just do what we do with flu: tweak the vaccine for whatever strain(s) causes concern at the time and roll it out to the same people who get a flu jab, and maybe like just recently, roll the vaccine out to over 50s as well.
Is it thought likely a months lockdown would be proposed around November to issue boosters to everybody,? I hope not but have a gut ffeeling something like that well may happen
Unlikely. The Times was reporting it would be probably supplied to independent pharmacists/Boots etc to give at the same time as the flu jab.
Why would you need a lockdown? Just offer it out along with flu jabs and job done.
Indeed, I have been very supportive of this lockdown as let's face it. we opened up too much in the run-up to Christmas and are paying for it. However we cannot keep locking down, it's such a blunt tool, as you state it destroys livelihoods, education etc and not to mention the WHO advises against using it unless absolutely necessary
This is crazy. I refuse to normalise harmful lockdowns. There is no need for it and there can be no justification for this.
i really hope your right, I’ve just currently got zero confidence in this government not being panicked into another lockdown should infection rates rise again, as is likely to some degree next winter
They're not allowed, im volunteering at the York site and they're waiting for the governments approval to go ahead with it
Allowed or not, it is happening. We know a few under 70 without pre-existing conditions who have had it.
I have come across this article from Unherd about the AztraZeneca vaccine and the South Africa variant
Three things I have noticed:
Must be restrictions on the vaccination hubs compared to GP surgeries / hospitals
That makes sense
With confidence intervals as massive as that, there's almost no point in even reading the study
I think that the vaccinations won't stop the pandemic. Hope I am wrong.
Vaccinations will massively reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill, which in turn will reduce the time & exposure the virus will have to transmit, which will reduce its spread & remove the impact it has on global health services. That will end the pandemic, it won't remove the virus, but that was never a feasible option away from lazy media hacks & politicians looking to score points.
Agreed, "how much" has big impacts in 6-8 weeks time onwards
The BoE is expecting a consumer spending surge as there is about £130bn in extra accumulated savings through not going on holiday/pub etc.
What's your reasoning behind thinking this?
Accumulated savings? You mean for people who have had a 20% pay reduction for much of a year, or those who have lost their jobs altogether. Even those that might have saved money earlier in the year will be picking up additional housing costs from working & schooling from home. Plus there are those who have accumulated additional personal debt through a combination of the above. Some people might have some spare cash, many will not. And I suspect a fair amount of that "saved" money is already spoken for.
I don't know who the BoE have been talking to but it won't be people on the breadline, recently unemployed or anyone who realises just how close we are to a "rainy day" as a result of the last year so therefore won't spend galore. Even if all restrictions and/or the vaccine programme were lifted/completed tomorrow I doubt a spending spree will ever happen after.
Heading slightly off topic....
Maybe they do have a better view of it, I just wonder if they are being a bit optimistic. A lot of winter bills, credit cards etc won't yet have been paid. But as you say, that's probably for another thread.
They've already moved the goalpost out to everyone over 50 despite cohorts 1-4 being the group that needed doing to make a difference and CRG have defacto signed off on that now so if there not going to pushback we are stuck with May at the earliest. Now the reality is we have seasonal suppression overlaid on vaccines so there is no reason that restrictions can be wound right back from May to Sept. My view is we will extensive oversight going into Autumn to detect the virus growing again as it won't be till then we will know how effective vaccines are. So there needs to be a contingency plan for NHS to be resourced up to manage a higher caseload than a normal flu season plus shielding is going to be a necessity so lets find a way it can be done thats more supportive for those involved. My hope is this won't be required but we are in lockdown 3 because of inaction by govt last to manage the situation. Yes the Kent variant may have caught them off guard but from my chair the warning signs were there in lockdown 2 that something wasn't right in Kent and had they been more cautious than worrying about Xmas we could have contained it.
