Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[ainsworth74]

Don't forget when kids went back to school for one day before he changed his mind.

Oh god, I think I'd blocked that one from my mind. But yes that was another stunning bit of 'decision' making.

 

[Simon11]

I think there's several things at play when it comes to the utter state of gloom in the media atm:

- The media have had an absolute boon off the COVID crisis. Everyone has been hooked to the news media in a way they haven't been for decades.
- The government want to manage expectations if they manage to screw something up down the line (which I wouldn't put past them)
- There's an "optimistic outlook" / "pessimistic outlook" ping-pong about industries like travel, events and hospitality so they aren't in absolute uproar, but then also the government can claim they didn't promise anything if it does go wrong
- The government are keen not to paint too positive a light about the situation, because it might encourage people to ignore the restrictions or feel like the vaccine isn't necessary
- Everyone has spent the last year insisting that even a small number of COVID cases / deaths are a huge problem, and there's no easy route for them to backtrack on that

Firstly worth pointing out that this applies across the globe and I think the USA media are far worse!

Its known within the media sector, that negative new stories gets far more hits than positive stories. People would rather hear about a story about how teacher X did something really bad, than hear about the many other thousands of teachers who did something amazing.

This then applies to covid and the negative stories are the ones that we hear the most as this draws in the most people

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I think your second point above might be a key one here (at least for the Government's tone). They've spent the last year basically making promises on when things will happen and then just being proven completely wrong. You know the sort of thing. In March 2020 Boris was all "we can turn the tide in 12 weeks and send it packing". Well, that didn't really happen. Then in July back to Normal by Christmas and, er, that didn't happen either. Heck in December he attacked Starmer in the Commons over differing views of Christmas plans days before u-turning on them himself and ending up doing what Starmer had been calling for (or something similar anyway). Then there's been the various farces with things like the NHS app, Test & Trace, the ridiculous fiddling with testing figures so they could make it look like they hit 100,000 per day by the end of April 2020 (rather than just being honest and saying "we set an ambitious target, we made massive strides and we got close and we'll hit it soon" which I think most people would have thought perfectly acceptable!). Then there's the ever present rumblings that the back bench Tory MPs are (along with the rest of us) heartily sick of the Government making promises and then just not hitting them, u-turning on them, pretending they never existed, etc etc.

So I can well believe that they're finally at the point of just deciding to manage expectations as far down as possible so that it becomes nearly impossible for them to fail to meet them.

The virus was largely sent packing by July with case rates and hospitalisations very low. There failure was not be prepared for the inevitable autumn resurgence and not to manage the populous expectations about that. The Tier system was a reasonable approach but they never acted on early warnings to place areas into restriction as soon as outbreaks were detected and then when they lost control had to resort to lockdown 2 which should have been left. The Kent variant story is convenient cover for lockdown 3 and Xmas but it was clear in November that there were big issues in Kent when Lockdown 2 didn't moderate cases and somebody cannot have been alive to this even if cause wasn't fully understood that something wasn't right. They did nothing and worse left shops open and sowed the seeds for widespread transmission in L&SE in the run upto Xmas causing lockdown 3.
They know they screwed up in the run upto Xmas and have now flipped 180 degrees and are on ultra cautious setting hence current govt behaviour and actually for the first time thats a good thing as it will allow us to strangle the virus down to manageable levels. My take is they will relax a lot more than pessimists think and we will back to at least summer 20 restrictions by early May and maybe less by June. However, it would be an act of folly not to prepare the nation for what might be necessary in Autumn, however negative people see that, because proof the vaccine is doing its job won't really be testable till then now as seasonal effects will soon be the dominant factor in driving down transmission. So we need to have a contingency plan that is understood and resourced up just in case.

 

[yorksrob]

The virus was largely sent packing by July with case rates and hospitalisations very low. There failure was not be prepared for the inevitable autumn resurgence and not to manage the populous expectations about that. The Tier system was a reasonable approach but they never acted on early warnings to place areas into restriction as soon as outbreaks were detected and then when they lost control had to resort to lockdown 2 which should have been left. The Kent variant story is convenient cover for lockdown 3 and Xmas but it was clear in November that there were big issues in Kent when Lockdown 2 didn't moderate cases and somebody cannot have been alive to this even if cause wasn't fully understood that something wasn't right. They did nothing and worse left shops open and sowed the seeds for widespread transmission in L&SE in the run upto Xmas causing lockdown 3.
They know they screwed up in the run upto Xmas and have now flipped 180 degrees and are on ultra cautious setting hence current govt behaviour and actually for the first time thats a good thing as it will allow us to strangle the virus down to manageable levels. My take is they will relax a lot more than pessimists think and we will back to at least summer 20 restrictions by early May and maybe less by June. However, it would be an act of folly not to prepare the nation for what might be necessary in Autumn, however negative people see that, because proof the vaccine is doing its job won't really be testable till then now as seasonal effects will soon be the dominant factor in driving down transmission. So we need to have a contingency plan that is understood and resourced up just in case.

I must admit, in all of this, I don't think I've ever seen anything from the Government on planning, or progress to tackle the shortfall in NHS staffing that existed prior to the pandemic. This autumn will have been a year and a half since the start of the pandemic. There must surely have been some progress on this by then.

 

[ainsworth74]

I must admit, in all of this, I don't think I've ever seen anything from the Government on planning, or progress to tackle the shortfall in NHS staffing that existed prior to the pandemic. This autumn will have been a year and a half since the start of the pandemic. There must surely have been some progress on this by then.

I thought we solved that with all the clapping?

 

[yorksrob]

I thought we solved that with all the clapping?

Yes, it must have solved something !

 

[Bantamzen]

I thought we solved that with all the clapping?

Apparently there were not enough pot bangers, so from March the police will be enforcing it whenever BoJo has some bad news needs to be buried.

 

[Yew]

The virus was largely sent packing by July with case rates and hospitalisations very low. There failure was not be prepared for the inevitable autumn resurgence and not to manage the populous expectations about that.

Isn't that exactly why all the experts advised against lockdowns? because all the modelling showed a massive resurgence once it was lifted?

 

[Кряква]

The virus was largely sent packing by July with case rates and hospitalisations very low. There failure was not be prepared for the inevitable autumn resurgence and not to manage the populous expectations about that. The Tier system was a reasonable approach but they never acted on early warnings to place areas into restriction as soon as outbreaks were detected and then when they lost control had to resort to lockdown 2 which should have been left. The Kent variant story is convenient cover for lockdown 3 and Xmas but it was clear in November that there were big issues in Kent when Lockdown 2 didn't moderate cases and somebody cannot have been alive to this even if cause wasn't fully understood that something wasn't right. They did nothing and worse left shops open and sowed the seeds for widespread transmission in L&SE in the run upto Xmas causing lockdown 3.
They know they screwed up in the run upto Xmas and have now flipped 180 degrees and are on ultra cautious setting hence current govt behaviour and actually for the first time thats a good thing as it will allow us to strangle the virus down to manageable levels. My take is they will relax a lot more than pessimists think and we will back to at least summer 20 restrictions by early May and maybe less by June. However, it would be an act of folly not to prepare the nation for what might be necessary in Autumn, however negative people see that, because proof the vaccine is doing its job won't really be testable till then now as seasonal effects will soon be the dominant factor in driving down transmission. So we need to have a contingency plan that is understood and resourced up just in case.

What you don't seem to understand is that there simply is, and will be, no "necessary in Autumn". There was no "necessary in March 2020". It was a sane precaution given what we knew.

We now know more.

If we go back in to lockdown in Autumn there will be riots. There'll be singular riots even if it is just me.

Lockdown crew are the ones that need their bloody "expectations managed". They've already "managed expectations" from a few weeks into _eleven months_.

If that's "negative" to you, tough tits.

 

[SJN]

I’ve seen elsewhere it being said that we still won’t be able to remove restrictions. Definitely keep borders closed. This is because if we get mutant strains from elsewhere then the vaccine might not work and back to square one. It just feels never ending!

 

[ainsworth74]

I’ve seen elsewhere it being said that we still won’t be able to remove restrictions. Definitely keep borders closed. This is because if we get mutant strains from elsewhere then the vaccine might not work and back to square one. It just feels never ending!

It's one of the reasons that we (as in rich countries) need to make sure we throw vaccines at countries and peoples who might not be able to afford them themselves. Whilst Covid may not ever go away the more people we can vaccinate the less chance it has to mutate and cause problems beyond those caused by season flu.

 

[greyman42]

I think there's several things at play when it comes to the utter state of gloom in the media atm:

- The media have had an absolute boon off the COVID crisis. Everyone has been hooked to the news media in a way they haven't been for decades.

I am not so sure about this. Speaking for myself and perhaps many others, i find the constant doom and gloom stories a complete turn off and do so or switch channels. If i buy a newspaper, i never buy one with doom and gloom headlines.

 

[packermac]

I agree. It's simply bizarre.

We are 25% of the way towards all restrictions being completely removed. Gone. February 2020.

At the current pace 100% of the adult population will be vaccinated by approx June.

Earlier, even - since 7% are confirmed to be exposed and likely >20% in reality.

Yet no-one seems to be acknowledging this.

What is the explanation?

I very much doubt it. I am 69 my first jab is Feb 19, second Mid May. No way will the whole population be done by June, they may just achieve the over 50's

 

[MikeWM]

I am not so sure about this. Speaking for myself and perhaps many others, i find the constant doom and gloom stories a complete turn off and do so or switch channels. If i buy a newspaper, i never buy one with doom and gloom headlines.

Certainly true for me. I've consumed and purchased far less media in the preceding 12 months than in pretty much any previous year. I even let my Private Eye subscription lapse, after 25 years or so.

I think the boon for the media is more in how trivially easy it has been to generate never-ending stories about the same thing. No actual journalism has been displayed in the 'mainstream' all year - which has been a significant problem for years, but at least until now they had to try to put together a mix of stories to fill pages/airtime. Being a 'journalist' at the moment must be one of the easiest jobs going.

 

[kez19]

I’ve seen elsewhere it being said that we still won’t be able to remove restrictions. Definitely keep borders closed. This is because if we get mutant strains from elsewhere then the vaccine might not work and back to square one. It just feels never ending!

Yet its strange that all these mutuations are appearing randomly, yet last year there was nothing of a sort, and as speaking of mutations hasn't any of these people be scientists or media heard of things that mutate all the time with the common cold or flu or are they that thick these days? (or are they being cleverly stupid in all this?).

Its seems like common sense in general has gone out the window for the sake of clicks/hysteria (yes I know COVID can be serious too) but with the media that much concentrating on more negative than positive - it seems like the media/SAGE etc have motives. (said this in numerous other threads but yet it seems its tying in together regardless of thread!)

 

[HSTEd]

I very much doubt it. I am 69 my first jab is Feb 19, second Mid May. No way will the whole population be done by June, they may just achieve the over 50's

It is supposedly anticipated that all of Astra Zeneca's doses will be delivered by the end of June. Which is basically 90% of the adult population alone.

Once J&J arrives in the next few weeks and Novavax in early April we will buried under an avalanche of vaccines.

Doses are currently rare, in a few months they will not be.

 

[Кряква]

I very much doubt it. I am 69 my first jab is Feb 19, second Mid May. No way will the whole population be done by June, they may just achieve the over 50's

The second dose is not required for short term reduction of severe symptoms.

From about March 10 you will be essentially good to go. This is the basis behind us delaying the second dose.

 

[yorkie]

Yet its strange that all these mutuations are appearing randomly, yet last year there was nothing of a sort, and as speaking of mutations hasn't any of these people be scientists or media heard of things that mutate all the time with the common cold or flu or are they that thick these days? ...

Mutations have been occurring constantly; we didn't do much genomic analysis before, but we do now. Many countries don't do this, even now.

People forget that Wuhan battled a less transmissible form; China's incredibly harsh lockdown helped but it wasn't the only factor; Europe had the much more transmissible G614 variant ( see https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/what-sage-really-think.212718/#post-4925455 ) in what is referred to as a 'D614G' mutation.

People who say we should be more like China conveniently forget that this mutation had occurred so that Europe fought a much more transmissible variant, and that a like-for-like comparison isn't possible (or maybe they are just ill-informed in which case they ought to keep their traps shut and leave it to be people who do have a clue!)

We are now seeing 'convergent evolution evolution' of mutations such as 'E484K' (The glutamate (E) to Lysine (K) substitution at position 484 (E484K) in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein); K484 variants have occurred independently in different locations.

If a particular change is evolutionary advantageous for the virus, it will happen, and it won't just happen once.

The idea that there are an unlimited number of such mutations, and that they will likely occur somewhere else not within the UK, and that shutting the borders will keep them out, is utterly false and is peddled by people who lack understanding of how this virus is evolving. There are loads of such people spouting absolute nonsense right now, using this nonsense as justification to keep restrictions in place and falsely claim that vaccines are ineffective.

The reality is that E484 has occurred independently in Britain, South Africa, and Brazil. And potentially other places that don't carry out genomic testing.

Such changes do not affect T-cell immunity; they can impair the antibody response but they do not render vaccines ineffective. The vaccines can, and will, be tweaked to increase efficacy with these variants.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Advice please:

My Dad had his jab 22nd January - so his 3 weeks is upon us tomorrow.

What is it that the 2nd jab does over the 1st?

He is fixated on the 2nd jab

Is there any official doc on it?

 

[35B]

Advice please:

My Dad had his jab 22nd January - so his 3 weeks is upon us tomorrow.

What is it that the 2nd jab does over the 1st?

He is fixated on the 2nd jab

Is there any official doc on it?

Replying with the caveat that I am a layman, synthesising my understanding of what's been stated in public.

The vaccines have been tested on the basis of 2 jabs, three weeks apart. The idea appears to be that the second jab boosts the effect of the first.

The government's medical advisors made a decision that the basic science supports a longer period of 12 weeks before the second jab. When they made that decision it seemed risky but justified in terms of reducing the burden of Covid on the NHS given that the 1st jab delivers a positive effect; further research appears to be showing that this delay actually appears to be boosting the immune effect achieved by the vaccine.

There's a broader point in that, which is the way it serves as a reminder of how limited our insight into the finer details of the operation of these vaccines is. The tests were done on a protocol based on 2 identical doses 3 weeks apart. We then saw how a cock-up within the AZ testing showed an outlier effect with doses delivered on a different plan giving a better result. When I needed travel jabs a few years ago, the nurse told me how the intervals on one were beginning to be extended, as research was showing how immunity remained strong much longer than previously thought.

 

[Yew]

I’ve seen elsewhere it being said that we still won’t be able to remove restrictions. Definitely keep borders closed. This is because if we get mutant strains from elsewhere then the vaccine might not work and back to square one. It just feels never ending!

That is indeed a very big if and if. Given that there is cross-immunity between SARS, cold coronaviruses and Sars-COV-2, it seems incredibly unlikely that such a thing could happen.

 

[SJN]

That is indeed a very big if and if. Given that there is cross-immunity between SARS, cold coronaviruses and Sars-COV-2, it seems incredibly unlikely that such a thing could happen.

Yeah I’m just saying what I’ve seen elsewhere. It’s said that people bought back a variant from Spain last Summer, then there’s the South African one and now if we don’t keep the borders closed, then we could be risking bringing more variants in and damaging our vaccine progress. I’m just feeling fed up with it all and it just seems some people want restrictions forever.

 

[Yew]

Yeah I’m just saying what I’ve seen elsewhere. It’s said that people bought back a variant from Spain last Summer, then there’s the South African one and now if we don’t keep the borders closed, then we could be risking bringing more variants in and damaging our vaccine progress. I’m just feeling fed up with it all and it just seems some people want restrictions forever.

The idea of a vaccine avoiding variant is almost inconceivable.

 

[SJN]

The idea of a vaccine avoiding variant is almost inconceivable.

Well the AZ vaccine has been in the news a lot this week saying it’s not good with the SA variant due to a small study done in SA.

 

[Domh245]

Advice please:

My Dad had his jab 22nd January - so his 3 weeks is upon us tomorrow.

What is it that the 2nd jab does over the 1st?

He is fixated on the 2nd jab

Is there any official doc on it?

2nd dose gives longer term protection. As I understand it (in simplified terms) the first dose causes the body to develop the initial immune response (antibodies etc), but the second fools it into thinking that it's going to see the virus the vaccine is imitating a lot, which encourages the longer term protection mechanisms (memory cells etc) but it is the first dose that gives the bulk of the efficacy.

The CMO's statement on it is about as official a statement as you can expect

The MHRA authorisation includes conditions that the AstraZeneca (Oxford) vaccine should be administered in 2 doses, with the second dose given between 4 and 12 weeks after the first. The MHRA has also clarified that for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, the interval between doses must be at least 3 weeks. For both vaccines, data provided to MHRA demonstrate that while efficacy is optimised when a second dose is administered, both offer considerable protection after a single dose, at least in the short term. For both vaccines the second dose completes the course and is likely to be important for longer term protection.

 

[yorkie]

Well the AZ vaccine has been in the news a lot this week saying it’s not good with the SA variant due to a small study done in SA.

What do you mean by "not good"?

Did you read my posts on this?

 

[SJN]

What do you mean by "not good"?

Did you read my posts on this?

Hi. Yes I’ve read yours now and they make sense thanks. It’s just what I’ve read elsewhere mainly on Digital Spy. There’s a lot of discussion on there about all this and a lot are convinced that if the SA variant becomes widespread we will be back to square one.

 

[HSTEd]

Hi. Yes I’ve read yours now and they make sense thanks. It’s just what I’ve read elsewhere mainly on Digital Spy. There’s a lot of discussion on there about all this and a lot are convinced that if the SA variant becomes widespread we will be back to square one.

It would be a major setback but It is doubtful we will be all the way back to square one.

If a single mutation was capable of defeating the immune system completely Influenza would have destroyed our civilisation long before now.

 

[hwl]

Well the AZ vaccine has been in the news a lot this week saying it’s not good with the SA variant due to a small study done in SA.

In the SA study 87% of those vaccinated had strong vaccine strain specific T-Cell response to the new problem SA strain - i.e. good T cell response. The last bullet point on the last slide that was ignored by the media... And hugely positively news worth in it own right.
I.e. you are NOT going to see many serious cases develop.

The problems is the lack vaccine specific antibody ability to target the problem strain hence lots of minor cases who are good at spreading it!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

It would be a major setback but It is doubtful we will be all the way back to square one.

If a single mutation was capable of defeating the immune system completely Influenza would have destroyed our civilisation long before now.

We just lose the nice bonus of massively cutting transmission through vaccination until we have new versions of the vaccine. We should probably hold of an wait to see if there are few more problems mutations before finally deciding.

 

[philosopher]

Hi. Yes I’ve read yours now and they make sense thanks. It’s just what I’ve read elsewhere mainly on Digital Spy. There’s a lot of discussion on there about all this and a lot are convinced that if the SA variant becomes widespread we will be back to square one.

From what understand is that with the SA variant the antibodies do not recognise it very well. However T cells do recognise this new variant and are therefore are able mount an immune response. T cells however respond slower than antibodies so you may get unwell, however you will not get seriously unwell. More likely you will have mild cold type illness the second time round.