Ukraine-Where will it end?

[DownSouth]

Point 2, under the Constitution of Ukraine - Title III Elections. Referendum, it is quite clear that in Article 73 "Alterations to the territory of Ukraine shall be resolved exclusively by the All-Ukrainian referendum" which brings us to Articles 69, 70 but most importantly 72 which quite clearly states "The All-Ukrainian referendum shall be called by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine or by the President of Ukraine in accordance with their powers determined by this Constitution.

The All-Ukrainian referendum shall be convened as a popular initiative at the request of at least three million citizens of Ukraine eligible to vote, provided that the signatures in favour of the referendum have been collected in at least two-thirds of the oblasts with at least 100,000 signatures gathered in each oblast"

This means the Constitution of Ukraine says in effect that any referendum for the Crimea to secede to Russia would be illegal UNLESS The All-Ukrainian referendum is convened meaning every Ukrainian citizen would have to vote to permit or to deny the Crimea to secede to Russia and there's no way the Crimea government which in itself is illegal can hold a legal referendum

There is a significant degree of tension over whether territorial integrity or self-determination takes precedence in international law. If international monitors were to verify the referendum is conducted fairly then things may start to swing in favour of self-determination - and the USA will find out what happens when they play with the pros.

The unilateral declarations of independence from Yugoslavia by Croatia and Slovenia will be very instructive here - both share similarities of regional majorities not having their interests served by the arrangements which existed to give them some amount of autonomy while respecting territorial integrity. Both had their declarations of independence internationally recognised.

Well, you're not comparing like-with-like. In the Weimar Constitution, the President was more of a figure-head. In Ukraine (at the time of the 2012 election) the President was a directly-elected post with political power.

The largest party in the 2012 election was the Party of Regions, with 42% of the vote and 185 (out of 445 seats). The President (elected in 2010) also came from the same party. But were they free and fair? Well you'll have to make up your own mind, but look what the government did to former PM (and losing 2010 presidential candidate) Yulia Tymoshenko...

We must be careful to avoid canonising Yulia Tymoshenko - there is waaaaaaay too much stench of corruption around her. The Ukrainian people recognise this, but when faced with a bigger ******* (e.g. her former coalition partner Yanukovych) they choose to hold their noses and tolerate it so long as they need her sole redeeming quality - that she's reasonably effective at rallying enough people and marshalling her business connections to depose unpopular incumbents who are a little marginally worse. Now that Yanukovych has been deposed she should be sent back to prison if she ever starts getting too close to getting back into the national power structures.

The leader that the Ukraine needs now that the constitution has been restored is Viktor Yuschenko, and all indications seem to be that he will run for President next year and almost certainly win.

 

[Monty]

Russia has allegedly planted minefields on the Crimean border with mainland Ukraine.

Also:
A long convoy of Ukrainian BMP's and BTR's leaving lviv heading towards the Crimean border.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6blKRuLfN84

I only see BTR-80s there, no BMPs though that's not too much of a surprise as it makes more sense to move those by rail. There is another video knocking about of the army preparing to move approximately 20 T-64BM MBTs by rail.

 

[bb21]

Point 1, Putin's claims he's only trying to protect the Russian minority in the Crimea are invalid as in the Constitution of Ukraine - Title II
Human and Citizen Rights, Freedoms and Duties Article 21, 24 & 26 the Russian minorities are protected under the Constitution of Ukraine.

The problem is that the new regime are hardly sending out positive signals. Doing this the day after they took power is never going to win the hearts of the ethnic Russians.

The amount of selective journalism out there at the moment is quite laughable. Impartiality is rarer than hen's teeth.

We must be careful to avoid canonising Yulia Tymoshenko

I remain deeply sceptical of her real motives of wanting Ukraine to join the EU. Is it really for the benefit of the Ukrainian people, or is it for herself? I don't think anyone can answer this question at the moment, but she is far from a saint herself.

I am not supporting Russia's actions in case anyone gets on the defensive, but the real situation is far more complex than made out by many papers.

 

[meridian2]

Sensible solution - Crimea reverts back to Russian control
Silly solution - a proxy war between the US and Russia over Ukraine gas pipelines which is what this is all about

Sent from my HTC One mini using Tapatalk 2

Triviliased like the casual simplicity of the media. Whenever the US is involved with anything, it must be related to a country's gas supply, because that answers everything and must be true. :roll:
bb21 is right. The situation is much more complex than simply evaluating the situation into either a 'good' or 'bad' outcome. It is therefore very difficult to have an informed debate on this subject with so many people towing the partylines of the various media outlets which conform to their ideals.

 

[Johnuk123]

I see a few hundred heavily armed Academi are now strutting around Kiev and Donetsk attempting to intimidate the locals who aren't pro-EU.

My son and his ex-colleagues met plenty of these in Afghan and they aren't very nice.

 

[transmanche]

The largest party in the 2012 election was the Party of Regions, with 42% of the vote and 185 (out of 445 seats). The President (elected in 2010) also came from the same party. But were they free and fair? Well you'll have to make up your own mind, but look what the government did to former PM (and losing 2010 presidential candidate) Yulia Tymoshenko...

We must be careful to avoid canonising Yulia Tymoshenko - there is waaaaaaay too much stench of corruption around her.

Oh I'm not 'canonising' her, but are you seriously suggesting that the charges against her were not politically motivated? Do you think she had a fair trial? This is what Amnesty International said at the time of her conviction (and I trust their opinion far more than that of any media outlet):

The prosecution against Yuliya Timoshenko is politically motivated. The charges against her are not internationally recognizable offences, they are attempts to criminalize decisions that she made in the course of her work. Poor political decisions of this kind – if that is what they were - should be punished by voters, not through courts. Her conviction on these charges is illegitimate and she should be immediately released.

Source: Amnesty International

 

[DownSouth]

I see a few hundred heavily armed Academi are now strutting around Kiev and Donetsk attempting to intimidate the locals who aren't pro-EU.

My son and his ex-colleagues met plenty of these in Afghan and they aren't very nice.

For those playing at home, "Academi" is the new name of the CIA's favourite mercenaries Blackwater - they needed to whitewash their reputation with a couple of new names after gaining a little too much fame with their exploits in Iraq.

If it is true, it suddenly makes the US involvement look a lot more transparent - and less competent at the same time.

 

[W-on-Sea]

No chance of Yushchenko coming back, I'm afraid. His 5% result at the last (fairly held) presidential election, sadly (given that he promised so much), but rightly (given that he delivered so little), more or less did for his political career: his party and associated coalition has almost completely disintegrated.

And I think (and hope) that Tymoshenko will not be elected President, either.

Also, the language law that bb21 links to a news article about has been revoked by the acting president (and this law did not, in any case, apply to Crimea)

The key point about the Crimea referendum, and why it is illegitimate, is that the authorities who called it were (and are) illegitimate, and the procedures by which they are organizing it are also illegitimate. Quite apart from the fact that Ukrainian law only permits national, not regional, referendums, or that nothing provides for the legal secession from Ukraine of Crimea (unlike the situation with the former Soviet or Yugoslav Republics, and arguably the Yugoslav Provinces such as Kosovo)

Remember that the "Crimean Prime Minister" was imposed, at gunpoint, two weeks ago, and that his party (which supports union with Russia) got 4% of the vote at the most recent Crimean parliamentary election. What happened in Kyiv was a revolution (after the president fled from the country): what happened in Crimea was quite simply a coup d'état.

The comparisons from Yugoslavia I would make then are not those of Slovenia or Croatia, but of the "Republic of Serb Krajina" (of Serbs resident is one part of Croatia) - who seized power with assistance from a neighbouring country. However, one very major difference is that the Serbs of early 1990s Croatia almost certainly did have legitimate grievances against the Croatian government of that time (non-Croats being sacked from state positions, fiery anti-Serbian rhetoric from the Croatian leader Franjo Tudjman) . There is no such situation in Ukraine today that bears any comparison with this.

 

[DownSouth]

Oh I'm not 'canonising' her, but are you seriously suggesting that the charges against her were not politically motivated? Do you think she had a fair trial? This is what Amnesty International said at the time of her conviction (and I trust their opinion far more than that of any media outlet):


Source: Amnesty International

Oh dear, somebody who is still naïve enough to go along with the Amnesty International circus. Open your eyes buddy, they'll chase any scrap of attention they can get even if they know they are being led down the garden path.

Of course the charges against her were politically motivated - but so also was all the interference by her allies (some of whom later testified against her despite also being in opposition to Yanukovych) which stopped her business dealings being looked into more effectively at some earlier point. The wife of the CEO who imported 80% of the country's main energy source as the Minister of Fuel and Energy - nope, nothing to see there!

 

[bb21]

Also, the language law that bb21 links to a news article about has been revoked by the acting president (and this law did not, in any case, apply to Crimea)

It is all about the message this is sending, and the timing of it. The technicalities may not matter so much in many peoples' eyes when emotions are running high.

How would you feel if you were an ethnic Russian? Totally unnecessary and highly provocative - and gives Putin an easy excuse, legitimately or not.

 

[transmanche]

Oh dear, somebody who is still naïve enough to go along with the Amnesty International circus.

Ah, so you belong to the when-you-can't-form-a-coherent-argument-you'll-just-mock-patronise-and-belittle-anyone-who-doesn't-agree-with-you school of thought... :roll:

 

[W-on-Sea]

It is all about the message this is sending, and the timing of it. The technicalities may not matter so much in many peoples' eyes when emotions are running high.

How would you feel if you were an ethnic Russian? Totally unnecessary and highly provocative - and gives Putin an easy excuse, legitimately or not.

That's fair comment - I think it was a misguided move, for the reasons you state, but - on the other hand, the law allowing Russian to be used as an official language was only introduced 2 years ago in the first place, and was no means adopted universally across the eastern/southern parts of the country - and not at all in the capital city, even. The system whereby Ukrainian was the sole official language (apart from in Crimea) had been in place for around 20 years, rightly or wrongly, but it had not been a major focus of discontent. Annoyance, sure.

It's not really an "ethnic" question, though - the language issue in Ukraine is more more complicated than that: it's quite normal for people to speak both languages - certainly the main language one *hears* being spoken in Kyiv is Russian (while the identity of who constitutes a Ukrainian and who a Russian, in many parts of the country, is very fluid, and it's not necessarily contradictory for someone to be both); while Lviv, say, is very differently politically and culturally from Donetsk, there is not a clear and obvious "divide" between the groups of speakers of the two languages in the way that there is, more or less, in, for example, Belgium. Even in the east many people in rural areas speak Ukrainian as their first language, even though the cities there are generally Russian-speaking.

 

[Johnuk123]

In January, 15,000 ultranationalists held a march through Kiev. They did so to honour Nazi-era collaborator and mass murderer Stepan Bandera. Some wore uniforms of a Wehrmacht Ukrainian division used in WW II. they chanted “Bandera, come and bring order.”

What on earth was the EU thinking of backing and encouraging these Nazi thugs. What can the EU gain from forcing the back of Putin against a wall? What can it offer Ukraine other than a belt-tightening austerity program the same as Greece.

I can't see anything other than the partition of Ukriane it is the only outcome that might just prevent war.

West Ukraine would become the EU’s newest poor member, crippled with debt to the IMF with a very far-right dominated government. The richer East Ukraine along with Crimea would be a Russian satellite state with all of the benefits and some inconveniences.

I was listening to an East Ukraine mp on the radio and what he said makes perfect sense.
He said as it was EU policy to concentrate Industry in Germany the Ukranian heavy industry especially steel plants had zero chance of surviving once the EU took over the country.

 

[kylemore]

I can't see anything other than the partition of Ukriane it is the only outcome that might just prevent war.
.

I think you're right.

It is noticable that there have been no posts on this thread for two days but not only that the Propaganda Ministry - I beg your pardon the BBC - have been backing off.

I think once people examine the facts then the rhetoric about "just like the Czech crisis in 1938" and "Putin the new Hitler" is dying away as people come to their senses, and I think our masters here in the UK realise that.

The actions of the Russian population in Crimea and the present Eastern Ukraine have been justifiable and those of the Russian Govt also justifiable but measured and resolute.

What happened in Kiev was a dirty little operation by the usual suspects, possibly long in the planning, perhaps exploiting genuine concerns over state corruption etc.

If the majority of the population in Western Ukraine expect the EU to be the panacea to all there woes (which I doubt - but thats how its being portrayed here) then they only have to look at Poland, Romania, Greece. A case of "out of the frying pan etc"!

 

[Monty]

It's more likely to do with the fact it's now old news and in the end nobody wants to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine, a country with very little of value. So everyone prefers to forget it happened. The Russians have had little justification for occupying Crimea, they and ethnic Russia population cry about the Ukrainians from the west being all Nazi's and that they fear for their safety. But take a closer look and what do you see? The Russians have just as much of a problem (if not bigger) with far right as the Ukraine does and in Crimea itself Pro Russian militia go around beating up Ukrainians and ethnic Tatars.. Both sides are far from squeaky clean, but it's not the Ukraine who is invading sovereign territory whipping up sectarian tension in a hotly contested area..

The Ukraine will fight for the Crimea and the East even if it means that they will loose they simply cannot afford to loose the part of the country that holds the majority of its industrial base.

As for Putin, can anyone say 'buffer zone?' Cold War 101.

 

[Oswyntail]

.....The actions of the Russian population in Crimea and the present Eastern Ukraine have been justifiable and those of the Russian Govt also justifiable but measured and resolute.

Except that they are in defiance of international law, and if everyone were to take such actions we'd all be stuffed.

.....What happened in Kiev was a dirty little operation by the usual suspects, possibly long in the planning, perhaps exploiting genuine concerns over state corruption etc....

And here we have more of the paranoid conspiracy theorists blether. Who, pray, are the "usual suspects", and where is your evidence for their involvement? I love the sinister atmosphere of "possibly long in the planning", with the hint of dark plots being hatched in smoke-filled rooms until ripe! And the beautiful word "exploiting" which tends to dominate the fact of "genuine concerns about corruption".

 

[Johnuk123]

The Ukraine will fight for the Crimea and the East even if it means that they will loose they simply cannot afford to loose the part of the country that holds the majority of its industrial base.

Picking a fight with Russia is a fight they will be lucky to come second in.
Although I fully understand how they will find it difficult to just lie down.

The whole area is so complicated regarding different ethnic bases in certain areas it's never going to be a settled place.

The Russians quite rightly see the EU as politically very weak with no leaders who wield any real clout so they have calculated that what they have they hold and so far they can't believe how easy it's all been.
The US may rant a little but they have no stomach for any fight however small.

 

[kylemore]

The Russians are allowed a certain amount of troops in Crimea under treaty obligations. As far as it's possible to know this number has not been exceeded. There has been no Invasion.

If a majority of people in Crimea wish to express their self-determination then who are we to say that is wrong? If it is wrong then it is also wrong that Kosovo broke away from Serbia and closer to home it is also wrong that a majority of people in Northern Ireland were able to express their wish to be in the State of their choice and that UK soldiers died to defend that right.

You can't have you're cake and eat it.
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And here we have more of the paranoid conspiracy theorists blether. Who, pray, are the "usual suspects", and where is your evidence for their involvement? I love the sinister atmosphere of "possibly long in the planning", with the hint of dark plots being hatched in smoke-filled rooms until ripe! And the beautiful word "exploiting" which tends to dominate the fact of "genuine concerns about corruption".

Well it really depends on how you think the world is run.

If you believe in fairy tales then yes what happened in Kiev was a totally spontaneous event at grass roots level with no involvement from outside, from NGOs for instance, when it was going their way the US was crowing about it's involvement.

Putin says there has been outside manipulation and control of the regime change process and I'm sure he has more information at his disposal than you or me. But of course Putin is 100% a liar whereas Willie Hague and Kerry and McCain speak nothing but the truth.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The US may rant a little but they have no stomach for any fight however small.

Well not against a large determined foe that knows what wartime suffering is all about, up against modern Air forces, state of the art radar and missile systems as opposed to a few kalashnikovs and home made rocket launchers, in a war where the casualties would be measured in the 1000s per day rather than the 100s a year.

 

[transmanche]

The Russians are allowed a certain amount of troops in Crimea under treaty obligations. As far as it's possible to know this number has not been exceeded. There has been no Invasion.

But they're not allowed to roam the streets when armed, or prevent the Ukrainian military from entering their own military bases...
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

and closer to home it is also wrong that a majority of people in Northern Ireland were able to express their wish to be in the State of their choice and that UK soldiers died to defend that right.

The majority of people in NI wish to remain in the same state they already are in... so not really the same position as Crimea. (Not that we know what percentage of people in Crimea wanted the region to join Russia before the current crisis blew up.)

 

[Oswyntail]

...
Well it really depends on how you think the world is run.

If you believe in fairy tales then yes what happened in Kiev was a totally spontaneous event at grass roots level with no involvement from outside, from NGOs for instance, when it was going their way the US was crowing about it's involvement.

I note you have totally ignored my request for evidence. You have your own fairy tales, which I do not share.

...Putin says there has been outside manipulation and control of the regime change process and I'm sure he has more information at his disposal than you or me. But of course Putin is 100% a liar whereas Willie Hague and Kerry and McCain speak nothing but the truth.....

Well Putin is something of an expert in "outside manipulation and control of the regime", so perhaps we should believe him. Or not.:roll:

 

[TheKnightWho]

I note you have totally ignored my request for evidence. You have your own fairy tales, which I do not share.

This. I notice a lot of assertions by certain people in this thread that curiously tie-in to their preconceived notions of various political entities.

What some don't seem to understand is that things aren't automatically true just because it 'seems obvious' or you can't see any alternatives. There is such a thing as evidence.

 

[DownSouth]

Putin says there has been outside manipulation and control of the regime change process and I'm sure he has more information at his disposal than you or me. But of course Putin is 100% a liar whereas Willie Hague and Kerry and McCain speak nothing but the truth.

Well we do know that one of Kerry's senior diplomats gave a rather, um, uncensored view of the EU which I fully believe was not a lie!

 

[Johnuk123]

Well we do know that one of Kerry's senior diplomats gave a rather, um, uncensored view of the EU which I fully believe was not a lie!

Strangely not reported at all by the BBC.

 

[ainsworth74]

Strangely not reported at all by the BBC.

Really?

An apparently bugged phone conversation in which a senior US diplomat disparages the EU over the Ukraine crisis has been posted online. The alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US Ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt, appeared on YouTube on Thursday. It is not clearly when the alleged conversation took place.

 

[transmanche]

Well we do know that one of Kerry's senior diplomats gave a rather, um, uncensored view of the EU which I fully believe was not a lie!

Strangely not reported at all by the BBC.

You mean apart from the five news articles and three analysis pieces...

• Ukraine crisis: Leaked US phone call appears online
• Ukraine crisis: Leaked phone call embarrasses US
• Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call
• Victoria Nuland gaffe: Angela Merkel condemns EU insult
• US apology after EU Ukraine insult
• Victoria Nuland: Leaked call shows US hand on Ukraine (Analysis from Mark Mardell, the BBC's North America editor.)
• Nuland phone leak: When Ukraine divides old allies (Analysis from Gavin Hewitt, the BBC's Europe Editor.)
• Victoria Nuland gaffe shows diplomats can trash-talk too (Analysis from PJ Crowley, former US Assistent Secretary of State.)

No not reported at all... :roll:

 

[Johnuk123]

Right I'll give you that, I was misinformed as my information came from another source which is usually accurate.

What it does show is the disdain and mistrust that some senior US diplomats must have for the EU.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Right I'll give you that, I was misinformed as my information came from another source which is usually accurate.

What it does show is the disdain and mistrust that some senior US diplomats must have for the EU.

Large economic blocs dislike each other. Shocker!

 

[transmanche]

Right I'll give you that, I was misinformed as my information came from another source which is usually accurate.

It took literally just seconds for me to Google.

But you preferred to regurgitate someone else's made-up nonsense without checking its veracity first? You're obviously a Daily Mail journalist AICMFP...

 

[Johnuk123]

It took literally just seconds for me to Google.

But you preferred to regurgitate someone else's made-up nonsense without checking its veracity first? You're obviously a Daily Mail journalist AICMFP...

I'll tell you the source it was Sky news Jeff Randall who is normally very reliable.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I'll tell you the source it was Sky news Jeff Randall who is normally very reliable.

That well known unbiased news source