Ukraine-Where will it end?

[Masbroughlad]

Things are hotting up in Ukraine. What will happen? Where will it go? What will the end point be?

Really hoping for a positive outcome for all.

 

[RochdalePioneers]

Sensible solution - Crimea reverts back to Russian control
Silly solution - a proxy war between the US and Russia over Ukraine gas pipelines which is what this is all about

Sent from my HTC One mini using Tapatalk 2

 

[Jones]

10 years ago - War.

Now....Europe is totally reliant on Russia for gas.....so lots of empty promises and locals will get killed.

Sad to say but even though it's Europe's front door, we only have a "European Neighbourhood Policy" relationship so can't see the EU countries getting involved.

Expect the kind of non action we saw in the Balkans.......

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I knew that the Crimea had been under many invaders in the past, but on reading about that region, I was amazed at the actual number of these since the Cimmerians first invaded.

 

[Johnuk123]

It's quite obvious Putin is a bit unstable but he has been pushed.

Europe with it's never ending expansionism and it's desire to keep pushing farther east has definitely caused this problem.

Everybody knows Russia is one of the most paranoid nations on earth what did the EU expect.

Today I watched RT on Sky and they had a prominent Russian senator on. He was quite certain that the whole of the Ukraine and Poland was the end product.
If he's right then I think the ridiculous Baroness Ashtons idea of sending a "stongly worded letter" might not be quite enough.

 

[fowler9]

Whatever happens it isn't going to be pretty. Even just over recent decades we have Muslim Tartars being booted out. There is also a massive Russian and Ukranian population. Europe and the US are going to support Ukrainein the interest of globalism. Russia of course have their own interests and who can blame them. Who knows what side of that China will land. Ukraine have a massive and pretty advanced military. They would give the Russians or the west more of a square go than a lot of the countries the west has gone to war with recently.

The West wants to keep the Ukraine on side for Globalism, Putin has no need to do that. Russia has its own small army of very wealthy Oligarchs.

 

[Class172]

Unfortunately, as much as I do not wish to see it, I can foresee the break-up of Ukraine, whether it be the whole country or a smaller section such as Crimea.

 

[Monty]

The whole country as it risk IMHO, Putin won't stop at the Crimea not when most of the eastern part of the Ukraine is ethnically Russian. There isn't much to stop him absorbing the entire country, the Ukrainian Army is a shambles and is in no condition to fight, NATO won't risk a direct conflict either and Putin knows it. It doesn't help when you have fools like Baroness Ashton and William Hague who only want to send strongly worded letters, nothing sends a "don't f*ck with me message" like a division of tanks on the move and while I wouldn't suggest we start moving armour to the Polish boarder the government should give serious consideration at getting the 1st (UK) Armoured Division organised and out on exercise. The Polish and other Baltic States must be crapping themselves.

This is why the withdrawal of the British Army from Germany is a very bad idea.

 

[bnm]

Send in the tanks? Are you mad? That'll help Ukraine how exactly?

 

[bb21]

The easy solution is that some politicians should learn when to keep their trap shut.

Empty threats is all they will be. Europe won't get involved. The Americans won't get involved either.

 

[Monty]

Send in the tanks? Are you mad? That'll help Ukraine how exactly?

Did you actually read my post? I didn't say send in tanks. I said it time to start sending our armoured units out on exercise, it's posturing and it does have a strategic value as it helps to create a deterrence. If we (the west) cock this up Russia will know it has free reign to move it's army at will all around Eastern Europe and the Baltic at will, if however NATO sends a message that it's not prepared to tolerate such aggression they will think twice, Russia doesn't want a shooting war with NATO any more than we do. But unless we back up our words with actions all it does is tell Putin he can do pretty much all he wants. The best way of doing that is by moving your tanks and increasing your forces readiness.

 

[transmanche]

Sensible solution - Crimea reverts back to Russian control

I haven't heard it mentioned in any mainstream news reports so far: that on the formation of the USSR, Crimea was part of the Russian SFSR and was 'transferred' to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. (Khrushchev was leader at the time - and he was a Ukrainian.)

And then things were just left as they are...

 

[TheKnightWho]

It's quite obvious Putin is a bit unstable but he has been pushed.

Europe with it's never ending expansionism and it's desire to keep pushing farther east has definitely caused this problem.

Everybody knows Russia is one of the most paranoid nations on earth what did the EU expect.

Today I watched RT on Sky and they had a prominent Russian senator on. He was quite certain that the whole of the Ukraine and Poland was the end product.
If he's right then I think the ridiculous Baroness Ashtons idea of sending a "stongly worded letter" might not be quite enough.

Ah yes. Clearly Russia sending in the troops is the fault of the Ukrainian people's democratic decision to have trade links with the EU (and therefore all the EU's fault), and this is nothing to do with Russia's history of imperialism, the corrupt quasi-dictator at the top and the legacy of the Soviet Union.

It's unbelievable the lengths some people will go to for a bit of EU bashing. I promise you now that if Russia conducts a full invasion of Ukraine (nevermind Poland!) that NATO will come down on them like a ton of bricks.

This is all aside from the fact that "he's unstable, and therefore it's the other guy's fault for provoking him" is about the ****est defence in court it's possible to have; the same thing applies on the global stage.

 

[Monty]

I would argue that Putin is far from unstable, he is an exceptionally clever and devious man. You don't raise in the ranks of the KGB when you're a nut job.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I would argue that Putin is far from unstable, he is an exceptionally clever and devious man. You don't raise in the ranks of the KGB when you're a nut job.

I agree. But I had to assume it for the purposes of making my point against Johnuk123.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Had this occurred in a time period where winter was approaching, the Russian trump card of a disruption to the gas supply to Western Europe could have been played.

 

[Johnuk123]

I would argue that Putin is far from unstable, he is an exceptionally clever and devious man. You don't raise in the ranks of the KGB when you're a nut job.

Devious is probably a better description, ruthless is another one.

One thing's for sure now the troops are on the ground they won't be going back.

Seeing all the locals embracing them it's obvious they're very welcome.

I think partition is the most likely outcome with the west of Ukraine staying as it is and the east becoming once again part of Russia.

Wars are sometimes started by one trigger happy soldier, let's hope that this isn't the case with this one. The t.v. is reporting a western Ukranian politician as saying if the Russians do push on they will re-obtain nuclear weapons and also let the 19 nuclear power stations go into melt-down.

They are knowledgeable about nuclear weapons having had them until recently, they used to make their own so they aren't novices.

One thing is for sure if the Russians are intent on pushing on west then the shooting bit is only a matter of time.

 

[ainsworth74]

I promise you now that if Russia conducts a full invasion of Ukraine (nevermind Poland!) that NATO will come down on them like a ton of bricks.

Never going to happen. NATO will not engage with another nuclear power unless it's an Article 5 situation and seeing as Ukraine is not, thankfully, a NATO member that is not going to happen.

The Polish might be getting nervous (and who can blame them with their history) but Russia won't be attack Poland anytime soon as that would provoke a NATO response. The Baltic States however should be very worried. NATO members they may be but I'm far from convinced NATO would ride to the rescue.

The Ukraine, militarily, is on it's own.

And whilst I agree with Monty that it might not be a bad idea to bring the tanks out of the shed and have a run around on Salisbury Plain the painful reality is that after the last Defence 'Review' the armed forces are increasingly not designed for this kind of fight. We would struggle to put the 1st (UK) Armoured Division in the field...

 

[tranzitjim]

Here in my country of Australia, petrol for motorists has jumped from $1.40s to $1.60s in only a day or so.

Blame on this price rise has been put upon fear in the marketplace over crude oil supplies, which people fear may be problematic should full out war break out in Ukraine.

Further to this fear is the fact that the war would break out right across a major oil supply route which may be blocked if war breaks out.

The natural result is, increase in fuel prices shall result in a lot more people who would otherwise drive their automobile, would instead be using public transport.


Focus of this thread should be,
++ Has there been an increase in petrol prices for motorists?

++ Is there a marked increase in demand for public transport, either timed or directly because of this chain of events?

++ Are there any rail projects of which may now be launched, where it would not be worthwhile before the war breaks out?

++ Would the new found crush of passengers expose weak spots of which would need a capacity increase in the future to meet such capacity issues?

++ What areas of the UK rail network are most at risk of such a surge in passengers?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Seeing all the locals embracing them it's obvious they're very welcome.

It's a bit simplistic to argue that, though. The majority of Ukraine is clearly opposed to what's going on, and even Crimea is extremely divided on the issue. I imagine if someone pointed a gun at you then you'd probably be quite compliant about the issue.

Plus it's not really fair to argue that a country should allow part of itself to secede in this sort of way. I mean, imagine this situation existed with Scotland (in every way than geography + language) - would you be happy about it?

 

[Johnuk123]

It's a bit simplistic to argue that, though. The majority of Ukraine is clearly opposed to what's going on, and even Crimea is extremely divided on the issue. I imagine if someone pointed a gun at you then you'd probably be quite compliant about the issue.

Plus it's not really fair to argue that a country should allow part of itself to secede in this sort of way. I mean, imagine this situation existed with Scotland (in every way than geography + language) - would you be happy about it?

Those Russian soldiers aren't exactly threatening most of them are carrying guns with no clips so to appear friendly.
It's actually illegal under the Geneva convention to not display uniform insignia but Putin isn't going to be bothered by that.

Crimea would go Russian in a heartbeat. The east of Ukraine is also but not entirely Russian leaning. The west is largely pro Western and is probably not on the Russian radar yet.

It's a very complicated country with a complicated past

 

[TheKnightWho]

Those Russian soldiers aren't exactly threatening most of them are carrying guns with no clips so to appear friendly.
It's actually illegal under the Geneva convention to not display uniform insignia but Putin isn't going to be bothered by that.

Crimea would go Russian in a heartbeat. The east of Ukraine is also but not entirely Russian leaning. The west is largely pro Western and is probably not on the Russian radar yet.

It's a very complicated country with a complicated past

I'm aware of that, but regardless it's not alright for Russia to behave in the manner that they are, and it's a huge blunder to behave like this.

Their stock markets are crashing, they'll soon face economic sanctions, they're already facing political sanctions (of sorts) and they're alienating what few links they already have with the West.

The only thing they've got going for them is oil, but they're overestimating the West's reliance on it. That's aside from the fact that it'll be far more damaging to them than it will be to us if they ever do decide to cut Europe off.

 

[Oswyntail]

One thing I really do not have a handle on is the concept of "ethnicity". In the mix in Crimea are "ethnic Russians", "ethnic Tartars" and others. I feel this is very different from our own domestic differences, where the UK is, for the most part, broadly homogeneous, whether Scottish, Irish, English or Welsh (forget recent immigration for now). We are all part of the same "race", as we are with Western Europe generally. Ethnicity is obviously felt more strongly in Crimea. What is this strange force that has divided the country - and is the right approach to redesign the country along ethnic or historic boundaries?

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I haven't heard it mentioned in any mainstream news reports so far: that on the formation of the USSR, Crimea was part of the Russian SFSR and was 'transferred' to the Ukrainian SSR in 1954. (Khrushchev was leader at the time - and he was a Ukrainian.)

And then things were just left as they are...

I think that this is a rather key issue...I've heard it once on mainstream news, but that was some days ago, it's not mentioned now. The Crimea was clearly 'transferred' at a time when there didn't seem any prospect of the Soviet Union disappearing, and even though Ukraine then was an 'independent' Soviet State within the USSR, in practice I wonder how much difference it made. Once the USSR disappeared, it left all those Russians as citizens in another state, and wasn't one of the first acts of the new Ukrainian government to abolish Russian as a legally recognised language in the country? Rather a silly thing to do, and clearly gave Putin more ammunition to say that the Russians in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine were being threatened.
As an aside, I wonder how many British people actually were aware that Crimea was in Ukraine anyway? Anyone who did a bit of history at school which included the Crimean war (1853-56) may have thought that the Crimea was still in Russia.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Wasn't one of the first acts of the new Ukrainian government to abolish Russian as a legally recognised language in the country? Rather a silly thing to do, and clearly gave Putin more ammunition to say that the Russians in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine were being threatened.

The Ukrainian language, like the Serbian language, is one that uses Cyrillic script and not Roman script used in Western Europe..

 

[Oswyntail]

I am reminded of this, for obvious reasons. The sequence, from Eisenstein's "Battleship Potemkin", is famously set in Odessa - Ukraine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ps-v-kZzfec

 

[Johnuk123]

Putin has ordered the troops that were carrying out exercises near the Eastern Ukraine border back to base.
This has either been done to reduce tension or it's been done to lure the Ukrainians into a false sense of security and he'll then hit them very hard and it'll be a massive shock.

Egypt did something very similar just before the war with Israel in the early 1970's.

The fact remains Russia can invade all of Ukraine any time it wants without a lot of opposition.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'm sure there are many in positions of power in America and the UK who long for a return of the old certainties of a new Cold War.
America can portray itself as the "good" superpower, nuclear weapons suddenly become "useful" again, the arms manufacturers can start building big stuff again and both sides have a very easily identifiable and definable enemy.

The only enemy now are muslim terrorists so you can imagine how some in the west would be very happy to stoke up a bit of tension.

 

[Manchester77]

Russia have test fired an ICBM according to their state news

 

[Darandio]

Russia have test fired an ICBM according to their state news

But before anyone gets their knickers in a twist....

1, The launch was already planned before the current situation.
2, The US had already been informed prior that a launch was taking place as per normal protocol.

 

[Manchester77]

But before anyone gets their knickers in a twist....

1, The launch was already planned before the current situation.
2, The US had already been informed prior that a launch was taking place as per normal protocol.

cheers, just got retweeted by bbc breaking so one assumed it was linked to current events