Ukraine-Where will it end?

[Johnuk123]

The timing of the missile launch and the 150,000 man exercise on Ukraine's border were obviously completely coincidental.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

For those forum members of mature years, I wonder when Putin will start banging a shoe on a rostrum during a speech to simulate another leader who was in a situation where things has become somewhat overheated.

 

[Jones]

God I miss the Cold War.

 

[BlythPower]

God I miss the Cold War.

I know. Life's just not the same without the ever present threat of nuclear obliteration.

 

[Amberley54]

For those forum members of mature years, I wonder when Putin will start banging a shoe on a rostrum during a speech to simulate another leader who was in a situation where things has become somewhat overheated.

Ironic that the guy doing the shoe banging at the UN (Khruschev) was actually a native Ukrainian and one of the first things he did once Beria was out of the way was to cede Crimea to the Ukrainian SSR from the Russian SSR!

 

[ainsworth74]

For those forum members of mature years, I wonder when Putin will start banging a shoe on a rostrum during a speech to simulate another leader who was in a situation where things has become somewhat overheated.

Perhaps Putin will take a leaf out of the Soviet playbook and atomise another part of Novaya Zemlya. I'm sure they've got the blueprints for another Tsar Bomba somewhere in a dusty archive...

I know. Life's just not the same without the ever present threat of nuclear obliteration.

Which suggests that since the Cold War we haven't? There are some arguments that we are more at risk of a nuclear exchange between two powers now than we were of NATO and the Warsaw Pact exchainging fire through most of the Cold War.

 

[Jones]

I know. Life's just not the same without the ever present threat of nuclear obliteration.

It would never have happened then, but now?

World has changed so much in the last quarter century, real power is moving further east yearly....

 

[bb21]

The threat of nuclear destruction would still not be coming from the likes of the US, Russia, China or even India, etc. The government of these countries are not naive enough to think that there is anything to gain by such actions.

Certain other countries, on the other hand, ...

It made me laugh when Putin told the West not to bother with G8 if they didn't want to.

 

[Johnuk123]

I know. Life's just not the same without the ever present threat of nuclear obliteration.

Well I was around then and I can't remember people ever really being worried at all. Nobody mentioned it except the usual suspects who are still around now but in very small numbers.

Whereas now with muslim terrorists one step away from biological warfare and dirty bombs this country in particular is simply counting down the days.

 

[Oswyntail]

Well I was around then and I can't remember people ever really being worried at all. Nobody mentioned it except the usual suspects who are still around now but in very small numbers..

I can remember the kids at primary school following the Cuban Missile crisis very nervously.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The mention of Russia taking steps to protect Russian citizens of Ukraine seems rather worryingly similar to the statements from The Third Reich in 1938 who also stated that they wanted to protect German citizens in the Sudetanland....and we all know what that incursion was the precursor to..

 

[ainsworth74]

I can remember the kids at primary school following the Cuban Missile crisis very nervously.

Though to be fair that's something of a special case. Rather than a more pervasive sense of dread.

The mention of Russia taking steps to protect Russian citizens of Ukraine seems rather worryingly similar to the statements from The Third Reich in 1938 who also stated that they wanted to protect German citizens in the Sudetanland....and we all know what that incursion was the precursor to..

They do, however Putin isn't Hitler and this time around Poland is a member of an actual defensive alliance and the risk of invading for Putin would be astronomical compared to any advantages.

However, I'll say again, if I were to live in the Baltic States, NATO members or not, I'd be very nervous.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

They do, however Putin isn't Hitler and this time around Poland is a member of an actual defensive alliance and the risk of invading for Putin would be astronomical compared to any advantages.

However, I'll say again, if I were to live in the Baltic States, NATO members or not, I'd be very nervous.

Sudentanland was not part of Poland...think more of the former Czechoslovakia.

 

[Butts]

If the people of Crimea choose to return to Russian rule after the plebiscite then that should happen.

The great advantage Putin has is that he does not have to explain or justify his actions to the Russian Public due to the lack of a functioning independent media.

There are certain advantages to this system - if Putin was building HS2 it would be done in years rather than decades.

 

[Jones]

Whereas now with muslim terrorists one step away from biological warfare and dirty bombs this country in particular is simply counting down the days.

Dirty bomb is one of the easiest things in the World to make.

Just need a trip to a hospital or a Diy shop.....

 

[transmanche]

The mention of Russia taking steps to protect Russian citizens of Ukraine seems rather worryingly similar to the statements from The Third Reich in 1938 who also stated that they wanted to protect German citizens in the Sudetanland....and we all know what that incursion was the precursor to..

I was thinking the very same thing yesterday. The rhetoric used by the Russian ruling elite is very similar to that used in Germany during the late 1930s - and not just that about their 'ethnic compatriots' in Ukraine...

 

[ainsworth74]

Sudentanland was not part of Poland...think more of the former Czechoslovakia.

Indeed it was and this is an area of history which I have reasonable amount of knowledge about. My mention of Poland was taking the suggestion of Crimea being the Sudentanland (therefore the remainder of the Ukraine playing the role of Czechoslovakia) to one possible conclusion.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Well I was around then and I can't remember people ever really being worried at all. Nobody mentioned it except the usual suspects who are still around now but in very small numbers.

Whereas now with muslim terrorists one step away from biological warfare and dirty bombs this country in particular is simply counting down the days.

Do you genuinely believe that?

Sometimes I'm really, really glad that I don't believe everything I read in the papers...

 

[carriageline]

Dirty bomb is one of the easiest things in the World to make.

Just need a trip to a hospital or a Diy shop.....

That's a new one, we now have experts on biological weapons!! Brilliant!

 

[W-on-Sea]

"If the people of Crimea choose to return to Russian rule after the plebiscite then that should happen."

The plebiscite in Crimea has next to zero chance of being held fairly.

Why not?

(a) the Prime Minister and Government of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (which does not include Sevastopol) were overthrown at gunpoint (after gunmen took control of the parliament in Simferopol) a couple of weeks ago: the new "Prime Minister" is the leader of a party (committed to union with Russia) that got 4% of the vote, and 3 out of 100 seats at the last election there. (In all no more then 15% of the votes were for parties that are either openly or ambigiously for reunion with Russia) - although when the population of Sevastopol is added to this the % might be expected to increase by a few percentage points.

(b) Crimea is effectively under armed Russian occupation. Even if Russia had a history of running free and fair elections (which, to state the obvious, it doesn't), this would not be any way to run a fair vote.

(c) Ukrainian TV stations have just been prevented from broadcasting to Crimea: so the main media is now Russian state media, which is putting out incredible, breathtakingly dishonest propaganda

(d) Calling a referendum at 10 days notice hardly allows preparation of an opposition case, even without the factors outlined in points (a), (b) and (c)

Russia will have trouble from the Crimean Tatars/.

I wouldn't rule out Ukraine restarting its nuclear weapons programme in a consequence of all this: it has the means and know-how, and it gave up its (ex-Soviet) weapons in 1994 on the understanding that in return, it's territorial integrity would be protected by Russia, the USA and UK.

 

[Johnuk123]

The Crimean parliament voted overwhelmingly on Thursday "to enter into the Russian Federation with the rights of a subject of the Russian Federation".
The vice premier of Crimea, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16. All state property would be "nationalised", the Russian rouble adopted and Ukrainian troops treated as occupiers and forced to surrender or leave, he said.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/06/uk-ukraine-idUKBREA1H0EM20140306

Definitely the right decision, might be a bit of shooting though when they kick out the Ukraine troops.

The formidable duo of Herman Van Rompuy and Baroness Ashton who between them have all the charisma of a damp dish cloth are leading the EU's condemnation, the Russians can't believe how easy it all is.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Putin must be delighted at the speed that the referendum is to be held, especially as he is not seen to be a prime mover but just an interested observer..:roll:

 

[Class172]

Indeed it was and this is an area of history which I have reasonable amount of knowledge about. My mention of Poland was taking the suggestion of Crimea being the Sudentanland (therefore the remainder of the Ukraine playing the role of Czechoslovakia) to one possible conclusion.

A lot at my school have made similar comparisons to the taking of Sudentanland.

Putin must be delighted at the speed that the referendum is to be held, especially as he is not seen to be a prime mover but just an interested observer..:roll:

Clearly there are no external forces at work... :roll:

Just to throw an idea in - if Crimea are so insistent on leaving Ukraine, could they not form their own country??

 

[Amberley54]

A lot at my school have made similar comparisons to the taking of Sudentanland.

Clearly there are no external forces at work... :roll:

Just to throw an idea in - if Crimea are so insistent on leaving Ukraine, could they not form their own country??

On your last point, the Crimean Tartars would probably want anyone to rule their country other than the Russians given the long history of discrimination and ethnic cleansing by the Tsars and then Stalin of their nation.

 

[Bodie]

I have a rule and it is summed up by saying:

Internationally speaking all countries have the right to do what they wish.

Sadly at this present moment in time the only country with that allowance is the United States of America.

So they can invade countries that have nothing to do with them at leisure (Iraq springs to mind) yet anyone else who even remotely does so is made out to be evil. America in this is just the biggest of the bullies and the UK is one of its little gang.

Applying my rule, I have no trunk with the USA mouthing off at Russia. They can talk the talk. I wouldn't mind if Norway or Australia or North Korea or the Central African Republic did the same.
If the American want to do that then so be it.
Switzerland can invade Germany or Yemen and Oman can join forces and invade Mexico. It's all fair in my book.


Just as if Western Ukraine wants to join the EU then so be it, likewise if Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea want to rejoin Russia then so be it.

As you may have already guessed what sticks in my throat is the wild hysteria being whipped up. That is why I say it's only America who is allowed to do as they please.
Thus if the American's don't like something, your sure going to know about it.

Trouble is there are many of us who are not going to buy their version of events.

The Crimea was part of Russia till 1954, and it only became part of the region of Ukraine because of a bureaucratic piece of paper shuffling. Russian bureaucrat thinks 'The Crimea she too far from Moscow, lets transfer it to Kiev's control, much nearer'
It was all still part of USSR.

Then in the fall of Communism in the early 1990's the Western half of the Ukraine got stronger as Moscow got weaker and due to that imbalance the Crimea became part of the newly independent Ukraine.
Still Moscow did have enough just to hold on to Sevestopal for it's Black Sea fleet. In fact you will note that that whole city is Russian. They don't just sit on their ships in the port. They have bases for their marines in the city. That is where the Russian troops who you see on the TV surrounding the Ukrainian Army bases came from NOT from across the border in Russia.
There are I think about 5,000 Russian troops based in the Crimea.
You will also note that the treaty that was signed when Ukraine became independent allows for not only these troops to be permanently based there but that Russia also has a legitimate right to increase troops if they feel the need to protect their Black Sea fleet in the Crimea.
Sort of a softener back in the day when the Ukraine became independent.

Also the Crimea region of Ukraine is or was semi autonomous. They have their own parliament, and that parliament just voted 78 to 1 to join the Russian Federation.

Yet to listen to the news, you'd think Putin himself had led a grand army of Russian troops across that sacred international border and forced the Crimeans to give him the land!

That's my final point. Today our leaders wail about International laws and borders. The law is pointless and unenforceable and just the pipe dream of those people who think they can use it to bring about a one world state. The borders part is the most stupid, they're not locked for evermore!, they can and do shift over time.
Yes they can be shifted by force or they can in this case shift because of people's desires.
The people of Crimea want to join Russia!
Isn't that something these people who are howling at big, bad Russia usually would strongly support - The rights of people to choose.
Sure it's there in black and white in the UN charter.

Safe to say there is more to this. Russia has gotten on the wrong side of some very powerful people. Those powerful people are not who you might think they are. These people don't get elected, they work in the shadows, pulling strings.

rant over

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The Crimea was part of Russia till 1954, and it only became part of the region of Ukraine because of a bureaucratic piece of paper shuffling. Russian bureaucrat thinks 'The Crimea she too far from Moscow, lets transfer it to Kiev's control, much nearer'. It was all still part of USSR.

A reading of the history of the land area of the Crimean peninsula shows that this land has been historically part of a very large number of invading powers. Russia did not annexe Crimea until as late as 1788 in historical terms.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

On your last point, the Crimean Tartars would probably want anyone to rule their country other than the Russians given the long history of discrimination and ethnic cleansing by the Tsars and then Stalin of their nation.

How many of those Muslim Crimean Tatars eventually returned to Crimea from their forced exile to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan ?

Note that I have used the original spelling of the name of these people.

 

[Greenback]

The history of the area is complex. One of the greatest challenges today is what happens when a section of the populace of a state do not like what their government does.

What has happened in Ukraine can, from one perspective, be seen as a the overthrowing of an evil man. On the other, it can be seen as being a cynically planned armed coup to dispose of a preoperly elected government. Take your pick. The same applies to Crimea, depending on your point of view.

 

[Johnuk123]

I have a rule and it is summed up by saying:

Internationally speaking all countries have the right to do what they wish.

Sadly at this present moment in time the only country with that allowance is the United States of America.

So they can invade countries that have nothing to do with them at leisure (Iraq springs to mind) yet anyone else who even remotely does so is made out to be evil. America in this is just the biggest of the bullies and the UK is one of its little gang.

Applying my rule, I have no trunk with the USA mouthing off at Russia. They can talk the talk. I wouldn't mind if Norway or Australia or North Korea or the Central African Republic did the same.
If the American want to do that then so be it.
Switzerland can invade Germany or Yemen and Oman can join forces and invade Mexico. It's all fair in my book.


Just as if Western Ukraine wants to join the EU then so be it, likewise if Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea want to rejoin Russia then so be it.

As you may have already guessed what sticks in my throat is the wild hysteria being whipped up. That is why I say it's only America who is allowed to do as they please.
Thus if the American's don't like something, your sure going to know about it.

Trouble is there are many of us who are not going to buy their version of events.

The Crimea was part of Russia till 1954, and it only became part of the region of Ukraine because of a bureaucratic piece of paper shuffling. Russian bureaucrat thinks 'The Crimea she too far from Moscow, lets transfer it to Kiev's control, much nearer'
It was all still part of USSR.

Then in the fall of Communism in the early 1990's the Western half of the Ukraine got stronger as Moscow got weaker and due to that imbalance the Crimea became part of the newly independent Ukraine.
Still Moscow did have enough just to hold on to Sevestopal for it's Black Sea fleet. In fact you will note that that whole city is Russian. They don't just sit on their ships in the port. They have bases for their marines in the city. That is where the Russian troops who you see on the TV surrounding the Ukrainian Army bases came from NOT from across the border in Russia.
There are I think about 5,000 Russian troops based in the Crimea.
You will also note that the treaty that was signed when Ukraine became independent allows for not only these troops to be permanently based there but that Russia also has a legitimate right to increase troops if they feel the need to protect their Black Sea fleet in the Crimea.
Sort of a softener back in the day when the Ukraine became independent.

Also the Crimea region of Ukraine is or was semi autonomous. They have their own parliament, and that parliament just voted 78 to 1 to join the Russian Federation.

Yet to listen to the news, you'd think Putin himself had led a grand army of Russian troops across that sacred international border and forced the Crimeans to give him the land!

That's my final point. Today our leaders wail about International laws and borders. The law is pointless and unenforceable and just the pipe dream of those people who think they can use it to bring about a one world state. The borders part is the most stupid, they're not locked for evermore!, they can and do shift over time.
Yes they can be shifted by force or they can in this case shift because of people's desires.
The people of Crimea want to join Russia!
Isn't that something these people who are howling at big, bad Russia usually would strongly support - The rights of people to choose.
Sure it's there in black and white in the UN charter.

Safe to say there is more to this. Russia has gotten on the wrong side of some very powerful people. Those powerful people are not who you might think they are. These people don't get elected, they work in the shadows, pulling strings.

rant over

The EU and USA should have never got involved in this from the start.

Parachuting thugs into the square in Kiev to organise the protesters was just the type of thing the EU is well known for they tried the same trick in Greece.

Who saw that masked thug in the square last week who was Italian but tried to tell Sky he was Ukranian.

The EU has gone out of its way to tempt Ukraine with massive amounts of cash and promises of future absorption into the eventual USE.

If some people in that part of the country want to go down that route then that's fine but not by overthrowing a democratically elected Govt by violence.

As regards the Crimea that will soon be part of Russia again. The only fly in the ointment is the 12% muslim tartars who have already been chanting about Allah telling them to kill Russians. They could cause a lot of problems to Putin who has had his fair share of problems from them in the past.

 

[Oswyntail]

...
The Crimea was part of Russia till 1954, and it only became part of the region of Ukraine because of a bureaucratic piece of paper shuffling....
It was all still part of USSR.

The USSR does not exist any more, and was a blip in the regions structure. It is not the norm or status quo.

...Crimea became part of the newly independent Ukraine.

The key word being "independent"

...In fact you will note that that whole city is Russian.

Even if that were true, what would you feel if a city in the UK with a majority of population from an ethnic grouping minority in the UK voted to secede - say Leicester voting to become part of Pakistan?

...also has a legitimate right to increase troops if they feel the need to protect their Black Sea fleet in the Crimea.

And that, IMHO, is the crux of the matter. There is NO realistic threat to the Black Sea fleet, but there is the possibility of arrangements being tightened up. Without the Crimea, Russia has no access to the Mediterranean, and that has been a major part of Russian policy since the 1700s. A fleet that can only be based in the Baltic or Arctic cannot be a major influence in the Western hemisphere.

...Also the Crimea region of Ukraine is or was semi autonomous. They have their own parliament, and that parliament just voted 78 to 1 to join the Russian Federation.

The self-proclaimed "Prime Minister" who led the thugs who took over the parliament at gunpoint was the leader of the pro-Russian party that gained a massive 4% of the vote in the most recent elections. I do not know whether the 78-1 vote was by secret ballot, but somehow I doubt it.

...The people of Crimea want to join Russia!

Some of them do, some of them don't, but a military occupation is a powerful inducement.

...Those powerful people are not who you might think they are. These people don't get elected, they work in the shadows, pulling strings.

And there we have it - it's all a big conspiracy by the Illuminati (or whatever).

 

[TheKnightWho]

The EU and USA should have never got involved in this from the start.

Parachuting thugs into the square in Kiev to organise the protesters was just the type of thing the EU is well known for they tried the same trick in Greece.

Who saw that masked thug in the square last week who was Italian but tried to tell Sky he was Ukranian.

The EU has gone out of its way to tempt Ukraine with massive amounts of cash and promises of future absorption into the eventual USE.

If some people in that part of the country want to go down that route then that's fine but not by overthrowing a democratically elected Govt by violence.

As regards the Crimea that will soon be part of Russia again. The only fly in the ointment is the 12% muslim tartars who have already been chanting about Allah telling them to kill Russians. They could cause a lot of problems to Putin who has had his fair share of problems from them in the past.

Conveniently ignoring the vast number of protests that have been going on there for months from protesters that want to join the EU. Or the fact that the ex-President has emptied the treasury etc. This is not the EU trying to woo Ukraine - they already want to join.

You can blame the EU all you like, but it doesn't change the facts.