UK General Election 2024

[Snow1964]

Although the sample sizes are much bigger, MRP still works best on the battles between the big major parties, and less well for small parties hoping to do well in a few target seats.

MRP also uses historic statistical data

It struggles with about half the seats (where there was a dominant party) because very little detailed historic polling was ever done in these areas, so breakdown by age group, gender etc has weak data. Most old data is from the swing seats, not those normally safe.

There are other problems too :
1) most previous data tends to be during university term times so is weak about students at their parents addresses during holidays
2) the move out of cities post covid doesn't reflect in the last census, on which a lot of age, gender, ethnicity data is based, so dataset has unknown errors
3) boundary changes have seriously affected some constituencies

From what I gather there are around 100 constituencies with the 2 top parties within 5%, so usually deemed close to call. Could easily move few percent when the 7m thought to be undecided choose (and who actually turns out on the day will also change result) so could easily change things in dozens of constituencies.

 

[Busaholic]

Yesterday I got a few hours to spend some quality time with 631 rows and 12 columns of data.

The poll sources have now been updated and the polling used is as follows:




As far as I can tell the 2019 results are adjusted for boundary changes but not by-elections, defections or expulsions.

I looked at 2 aspects.

Constituencies where all of the pollsters have the same 2024 prediction.

I identified 391 constituencies where all 12 pollsters have the same predicted outcome in 2024. This can be broken down as follows for 2019 estimated result and 2024 predicted result.

191 lab hold
147 lab gain from con
12 lab gain from snp

6 lib hold
15 lib gain from con

14 con hold
4 snp hold
2 pc hold

On the basis of unanimous predictions only, Labour would win enough seats for an overall majority.

The 14 unanimous conservative holds are:

Arundel and South Downs
Beaconsfield
Brentwood and Ongar
Christchurch
East Surrey
Hamble Valley
Maldon
New Forest East
North Dorset
North East Hampshire
North West Essex
Sevenoaks
South Shropshire
Weald of Kent

The 15 unanimous Liberal Democrat gains are:

Cheadle
Cheltenham
Dorking and Horley
Eastbourne
Esher and Walton
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Henley and Thame
Lewes
South Cambridgeshire
St Ives
Taunton and Wellington
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester

Black Sheep constituencies

These are where all pollsters agree except for one Black Sheep pollster predicting a different result. I have identified 73 of these and here is a Black Sheep ranking by pollster. I devised this as a fairly crude metric of how much each pollster's methodology diverges from the herd.

18 More in Common
10 Savanta
10 We Think
7 Ipsos
6 Electoral Calculus
6 Survation
5 Britain Predicts
5 Yougov
2 Election Maps
2 Focal Data
2 FT
0 Economist

Of the 18 More in Common Black Sheep, 14 are predicted Conservative holds where all other pollsters are predicting Conservative defeats, 13 to Labour and 1 to Liberal Democrat. The remaining 4 are all in Scotland.

On the other hand, all 10 Savanta Black Sheep are predicted Labour gains where all other pollsters are predicting another result. 8 of these are otherwise Conservative holds, the other 2 are in Scotland.

Regarding We Think, 6 of their 10 Black Sheep are where they are predicting an SNP hold and all other pollsters are predicting a Labour gain.

6 of the 7 Ipsos Black Sheep are predicted Conservative holds where all others are predicting a Liberal Democrat gain.

Electoral Calculus are the only pollster predicting that Galloway and Corbyn will win, they are also predicting that Reform will win in Barnsley South.

Another point worth noting is that 18 of the 73 Black Sheep predictions are in Scotland, which suggests that there is more divergence in methodology in Scotland than in England.

Here are some tentative inferences.

• voting on the day is going to need to be very significantly different from all of the polls to give any result other than a big Labour victory, and differences in polling methodology are only a matter of degree
• Predictions for Scotland are not as good as for England
• Polling consensus is possibly represented by the Economist, Focal Data and FT polls, though consensus isn't necessarily correct
• I was unsure about including the Election Maps poll there because their Liberal Democrat/Conservative split is rather different from the Economist, Focal Data and FT polls

Thank you so much for that work, it must have taken you a lot of time.

Without analyising it too much, I'm immediately struck by the unanimous LibDem gains and that only two are in SW England, one in my seat in Cornwall and one in Somerset, whereas all the narrative is of the region going orange. The other thing I happened to notice was that Arundel is given as a unanimous Tory hold, whereas a report last week on the constituency on a Radio Four news programme sowed some doubt as to that conclusion. Admittedly, this could just have been extra BBC scrupulousness, but gave me pause for thought

 

[Gloster]

Frankly, there are so many new factors this year that the first poll that I am prepared to regard as reasonably accurate will be the exit poll at 22.00 on Thursday: these have a reputation of being fairly accurate. The wild variation between results and my doubts about how carefully some of the samples are chosen, together with the fact there seem to be far more organisations involved, some of which will need to make a name for themselves or curry favour with customers, means that I can’t be happy that any are truly representative.

 

[takno]

Frankly, there are so many new factors this year that the first poll that I am prepared to regard as reasonably accurate will be the exit poll at 22.00 on Thursday: these have a reputation of being fairly accurate. The wild variation between results and my doubts about how carefully some of the samples are chosen, together with the fact there seem to be far more organisations involved, some of which will need to make a name for themselves or curry favour with customers, means that I can’t be happy that any are truly representative.

I'm not regarding anything as accurate until I see the actual results, and even then I've got my suspicions.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I'm not regarding anything as accurate until I see the actual results, and even then I've got my suspicions.

These are UK elections not US election lol .

 

[Falcon1200]

The people who go up a band pay more, but the people who stay in the same band pay less. The people who go down a band get double stamps through decreases in both the banding and the rate.

Thanks for the explanation.

It does seem to be yet another area of Council Tax unfairness, in that if some people through having their house moved up a band pay more, others end up paying less! Whereas it would seem more sensible to, instead, provide extra finance for the council. But there is clearly no appetite for any of the parties to reform Council Tax, thanks to the undoubted adverse effect on their popularity.

 

[takno]

Thanks for the explanation.

It does seem to be yet another area of Council Tax unfairness, in that if some people through having their house moved up a band pay more, others end up paying less! Whereas it would seem more sensible to, instead, provide extra finance for the council. But there is clearly no appetite for any of the parties to reform Council Tax, thanks to the undoubted adverse effect on their popularity.

In practice you could certainly make an argument for increasing the tax at the same time, since you have made it fairer and therefore it's acceptable for it to be higher. Particularly in Scotland, the almost complete freeze in council tax in Scotland for over a decade has definitely resulted in quite low rates, and the council is clearly struggling to provide a decent set of services as a result.

 

[nw1]

The 15 unanimous Liberal Democrat gains are:

Cheadle
Cheltenham
Dorking and Horley
Eastbourne
Esher and Walton
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Henley and Thame
Lewes
South Cambridgeshire
St Ives
Taunton and Wellington
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester

What's a little strange and unexpected there is that Dorking and Horley, and Henley and Thame, are unanimous Lib Dem gains when I'd class both as Tory/Lib Dem tossups.

On the other hand, Guildford and Woking are not unanimous Lib Dem gains (so presumably, Tory holds for some). It would be very odd indeed, and hard to explain, to see the university town of Guildford stay Tory but nearby Dorking flip to the Lib Dems!

 

[simonw]

What's a little strange and unexpected there is that Dorking and Horley, and Henley and Thame, are unanimous Lib Dem gains when I'd class both as Tory/Lib Dem tossups.

On the other hand, Guildford and Woking are not unanimous Lib Dem gains (so presumably, Tory holds for some). It would be very odd indeed, and hard to explain, to see the university town of Guildford stay Tory but nearby Dorking flip to the Lib Dems!

The problem with @Magdalia s analysis is it only takes one poll to eliminate a seat. The clue being the word unanimous.

Few people, I suspect, expect Libdem gains to be limited to 15.

The anti Tory feeling in the South East is very strong in many areas, because of Brexit and the perceived poor handling of the economy.

What this will translate into on the day we only have 4 days left to find out.

 

[Magdalia]

On the other hand, Guildford and Woking are not unanimous Lib Dem gains (so presumably, Tory holds for some). It would be very odd indeed, and hard to explain, to see the university town of Guildford stay Tory but nearby Dorking flip to the Lib Dems!

The problem with @Magdalia s analysis is it only takes one poll to eliminate a seat. The clue being the word unanimous.

Guildford and Woking are both in the Black Sheep category.

Guildford is a unanimous Conservative loss but We Think have Labour to win not Liberal Democrat.

Woking is all Liberal Democrat gain except Ipsos have Conservative hold. Five other constituencies are like this: Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Newbury, Thornbury and Yate, and Wells and Mendip Hills.

For the Conservatives to retain these you have to think that Ipsos know something that the others don't!

 

[Gloster]

Woking is all Liberal Democrat gain except Ipsos have Conservative hold. Five other constituencies are like this: Glastonbury and Somerton, Godalming and Ash, Newbury, Thornbury and Yate, and Wells and Mendip Hills.

For the Conservatives to retain these you have to think that Ipsos know something that the others don't!

Glastonbury and Somerton would be a bit of an odd Conservative hold/gain as much of it is made up of the former Somerton and Frome, which had a Liberal-Democrat MP from 1997-2010 and went heavily back in last year‘s by-election; the other parts of it came from Wells and Yeovil, both of which have had Liberal-Democrat MPs (the latter was Paddy Ashdown’s seat). Wells looks like the sort of seat that the Liberal-Democrats needs to win: the old seat had a Liberal-Democrat MP at one point and so did most of the constituencies from which bits were taken to form the new constituency. Thornbury and Yate, and Newbury have also had Liberal-Democrat MPs in the past.

 

[Kaliwax]

I sent all my candidates an email, of why should the disabled vote for them. Labour and Green Party only ones responded so far. Green Party candidate, sent a very nice response back and says the reason why he got into politics in the first place was to help the disabled.

Id be interested to hear my local reform and tory candidates view on the disabled.

 

[jfollows]

More desperation tactics from the Conservatives today, Cleverley saying that Labour will "gerrymander the system" to bring a "permanent Labour government" because of giving votes to 16 year-olds, "votes for foreign nationals" and "probably going to get votes for criminals" (all reported at https://www.theguardian.com/politic...mes-cleverly-claims-rishi-sunak-conservatives).

Again, it just makes me laugh ironically - given that the Conservatives have done their bit to gerrymander the system with mandatory voter ID & votes for expatriates abroad. The first failed in its intent. I don't actually support the idea of votes for 16/17 year-olds, but I'm not exercised about it, there'd be nothing invalid in their votes if it came to pass, it's simply that I prefer the idea of 18 as an age limit for most things.

Just part of the tactics now being used by the Conservatives to minimise their losses rather than to win the election I guess.

EDIT Oh, and why would criminals predominantly vote Labour anyway? The current indicators seem to be that more educated people (who could be criminals, I agree, but are probably less likely to be) tend more to vote Labour these days.

 

[gg1]

Electoral Calculus are the only pollster predicting that Galloway and Corbyn will win, they are also predicting that Reform will win in Barnsley South.

Looking at the detail for Islington North it's interesting that a number of the pollsters clearly aren't taking into account local factors. Whilst Corbyn may not win, it's virtually guaranteed he will take a significant number of votes from the official Labour candidate (he is by all accounts personally well liked by many of his constituents), 5 out of 12 however have the vote share for 'others' as 8% or less with another saying 13%.

Similarly with Rochdale, I don't think Galloway will retain the seat but I would expect him to win somewhat more than 0-7% of the vote 6 of the 12 pollsters are predicting.

 

[bspahh]

Looking at the detail for Islington North it's interesting that a number of the pollsters clearly aren't taking into account local factors. Whilst Corbyn may not win, it's virtually guaranteed he will take a significant number of votes from the official Labour candidate (he is by all accounts personally well liked by many of his constituents), 5 out of 12 however have the vote share for 'others' as 8% or less with another saying 13%.

Similarly with Rochdale, I don't think Galloway will retain the seat but I would expect him to win somewhat more than 0-7% of the vote 6 of the 12 pollsters are predicting.

For Islington North, Oddschecker have Labour as the favourites (4/6) with Corbyn at 5/4.

In Rochdale, Labour are the favourites (4/7) with Galloway's Workers Party of Britain at 9/4

I find it interesting that the favourite for the number of MPs for Reform is 7 or more (7/4), with 1-2 seats at 2/1.

Betting markets for niche bets like this are something that you could bias without spending much

 

[takno]

Looking at the detail for Islington North it's interesting that a number of the pollsters clearly aren't taking into account local factors. Whilst Corbyn may not win, it's virtually guaranteed he will take a significant number of votes from the official Labour candidate (he is by all accounts personally well liked by many of his constituents), 5 out of 12 however have the vote share for 'others' as 8% or less with another saying 13%.

Similarly with Rochdale, I don't think Galloway will retain the seat but I would expect him to win somewhat more than 0-7% of the vote 6 of the 12 pollsters are predicting.

This is the sort of thing that does get underrepresented in polls. I think it gets very overstated in people's minds though.

Not that many Labour voters are both aware enough and genuinely hard enough left to vote for an independent instead of Labour. Even amongst those who ate left wing enough, many will in any case view Corbyn as a slightly absurd posturing idiot rather than a useful contribution to left wing issues. Furthermore, a lot is being made of his impact as an effective local MP, but the vast majority of people have no interaction at all with their MP, and for the most part aren't even aware that this is something they might be able to do.

It's not impossible that he wins the seat if he's got a really good ground game, but it really wouldn't be surprising to see him poll less than 10%.

As to Galloway, who knows? I can easily see him hitting the buffers at 5%. He's not at all likeable or credible, and this is a mass participation event. If relevant community leaders push hard for him he could pick up more, but most of the people he'd need to engage with have seen through him by now.

People fundamentally don't vote for independents

 

[edwin_m]

Looking at the detail for Islington North it's interesting that a number of the pollsters clearly aren't taking into account local factors. Whilst Corbyn may not win, it's virtually guaranteed he will take a significant number of votes from the official Labour candidate (he is by all accounts personally well liked by many of his constituents), 5 out of 12 however have the vote share for 'others' as 8% or less with another saying 13%.

Similarly with Rochdale, I don't think Galloway will retain the seat but I would expect him to win somewhat more than 0-7% of the vote 6 of the 12 pollsters are predicting.

MRP works out the demographics in each constituency and then assumes each demographic will vote according to a profile derived from national surveys of that demographic. This doesn't take account of strong local factors, independents or small parties. So they are more likely to be wrong for seats like Islington North and Rochdale.

 

[Gloster]

It used to be said that an MP’s personal vote was worth only around 1,500 votes. Even with larger constituencies and easier ways to contact them, I doubt if this is more than double that nowadays.

(The personal vote was those who had dealt with him or her or knew someone who had or who had seen the MP actually sort out a problem and so were inclined to him or her because of their actions. Unfortunately, it cuts both ways nowadays: you have people who won’t vote for an MP because he or she didn’t fix their defective streetlight the same day as they sent a misspelled e-mail that didn’t give an address.)

 

[DarloRich]

just had a Reform party advert on the bottom of my RUK screen! blurgh!

 

[Cross City]

Cleverley saying that Labour will "gerrymander the system" to bring a "permanent Labour government" because of giving votes to 16 year-olds, "votes for foriegn nationals"

Maybe if other parties are scared of not getting in to power again because they're unattractive to 16-17 year-olds and foreign residents of the UK then they should try and be more attractive to those groups?

Radical thinking I know.

 

[D6130]

Just had a Lib-Dem leaflet dropped through the door with the post. First communication since the election was called....although the new Tory candidate put out a very impressive illustrated leaflet soon after her candidacy was announced back in February. Nothing from any other parties....but local Labour canvassers may have swerved us as we have several Labour posters in the windows, as my wife is a party member.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What is it abut east Lincolnshire that makes it such a hotbed of Reform support?
Why is it any different to other rural/forgotten/deprived areas in other parts of the country?
Thinking of parts of the north-east/south west/Wales with similar problems.
It can't be Brexit issues because we've done that.

 

[takno]

Just had a Lib-Dem leaflet dropped through the door with the post. First communication since the election was called....although the new Tory candidate put out a very impressive illustrated leaflet soon after her candidacy was announced back in February. Nothing from any other parties....but local Labour canvassers may have swerved us as we have several Labour posters in the windows, as my wife is a party member.

The Labour party deliberately strike me off the canvassing list as a party member, so I imagine your house will be the same

 

[david1212]

Saturday I had leaflets from Greens, Lib Dems & Reform delivered together with some other junk marketing / advertising. Still nothing from the Conservatives. The Greens currently have the largest number of District Council members and there are several Lib Dem but exteremly unlikely ether will be even close. The result will be interesting compared to 2019 when Labour only held by a few hundred seats.
While from Oddschecker all but certain Labour will retain the seat in 2015 and 2010 it was held by the Conservatives. Hostorical but 1992 and many elections before it was Conservative held.

Regarding Council Tax IMO the band should be reviewed when there is major construction work. The house at the back of me has been extended twice. If this size back when the bands were set I guess it would be two bands higher, possibly more. One opposite would be at least one band higher.

 

[birchesgreen]

Maybe if other parties are scared of not getting in to power again because they're unattractive to 16-17 year-olds and foreign residents of the UK then they should try and be more attractive to those groups?

Radical thinking I know.

Amusing that Cleverly belongs to a party that actually did try and do some gerrymandering, but luckily for us they sucked at it like everything else.

 

[nw1]

More desperation tactics from the Conservatives today, Cleverley saying that Labour will "gerrymander the system" to bring a "permanent Labour government"
because of giving votes to 16 year-olds, "votes for foreign nationals" and "probably going to get votes for criminals" (all reported at https://www.theguardian.com/politic...mes-cleverly-claims-rishi-sunak-conservatives).

Does he honestly believe people will believe it will bring about a "permanent Labour government"?

As an aside I'd say that long term "foreign nationals" (e.g. EU citizens with settled status, or citizens of other countries with permanent residence rights) should get voting rights, but that's by the by.

 

[Gloster]

What is it abut east Lincolnshire that makes it such a hotbed of Reform support?
Why is it any different to other rural/forgotten/deprived areas in other parts of the country?
Thinking of parts of the north-east/south west/Wales with similar problems.
It can't be Brexit issues because we've done that.

It has been suggested that they object to all the Poles, Estonians, Lithuanians, etc. ”Coming over here and taking our jobs…” in the various agricultural and food processing industries. These jobs are poorly paid and unpleasant casual work, but various East Europeans are prepared to work for peanuts, often in the hope of either saving a bit of money or moving on to better things. There was an article around a decade ago, which I read with interest as I used to know one of the employers quoted, that said that the East Europeans were preferred as they were a lot more reliable than the locals who had a casual attitude to the work. There have also been culture clashes and problems because after a few years you get less desirable chancers coming over to feed on their countrymen. But at the root it may be having a large and separate group of generally more successful foreigners in a rural area.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2024 ==

As an aside I'd say that long term "foreign nationals" (e.g. EU citizens with settled status, or citizens of other countries with permanent residence rights) should get voting rights, but that's by the by.

Of course foreigners can have voting rights. Just donate a large sum to the Conservatives and you will be allowed to vote…in the House of Lords.

 

[takno]

Just got my weekly postal delivery, with leaflets from the Lib Dems, Reform, the Scottish Family Party and "Edinburgh People", so it's just the Tories and the one oddball independent who haven't bothered at all.

The Scottish Family Party leaflet demonstrated them to be even more disgusting than I thought - I'm frankly slightly uncomfortable knowing there's somebody as nasty as that proudly and openly living in my local community.

Edinburgh People meanwhile is some former Logistics consultant who moved here 5 years ago. Apparently he thinks his complete lack of any background in politics and pretty small background in Edinburgh makes him more of an "Edinburgh People" than the local MP. The local MP was born here and had real actual full time jobs outside politics until he became MP in 2010. I think "Edinburgh People" are almost as conceited as Reform, and since they haven't mentioned any policies at all I can only really conclude that they are as evil as well.

 

[renegademaster]

Just got my weekly postal delivery, with leaflets from the Lib Dems, Reform, the Scottish Family Party and "Edinburgh People", so it's just the Tories and the one oddball independent who haven't bothered at all.

The Scottish Family Party leaflet demonstrated them to be even more disgusting than I thought - I'm frankly slightly uncomfortable knowing there's somebody as nasty as that proudly and openly living in my local community.

Edinburgh People meanwhile is some former Logistics consultant who moved here 5 years ago. Apparently he thinks his complete lack of any background in politics and pretty small background in Edinburgh makes him more of an "Edinburgh People" than the local MP. The local MP was born here and had real actual full time jobs outside politics until he became MP in 2010. I think "Edinburgh People" are almost as conceited as Reform, and since they haven't mentioned any policies at all I can only really conclude that they are as evil as well.

An independent candidate not having much policy substance meaning he is evil is quite a jump

 

[takno]

An independent candidate not having much policy substance meaning he is evil is quite a jump

Yeah, it was more facetious really. I just find the whole thing deeply weird. If the only reason you're providing for people to vote for you is that you're local and not a career politician, then really you need to both be local, and be standing against a career politician.