UK General Election 2024

[takno]

Finally got Reform, Conservative & LibDem leaflets today.
I’ve had at least 3xLabour already, it’s clear where the effort lies.
I voted by post a week ago.
LibDem mainly gone to ground (per the next poster)
The Conservative (Esther McVey) is against so many things I’m in favour of - HS2, Europe, gay marriage
Reform is beyond the pale for me

I've been away for 3 weeks so haven't been keeping up, but checking through my bin I've had 2xLabour (one of which looks like it was a regular MSP update printed before the election was called, an SNP one and a Green one. Realistically I'd say Labour are very likely to win and the only other party that has a remote chance is the SNP, so it's not incredibly surprising.

I've only just actually checked the candidates however, and I'm surprised to see that we have 10 candidates standing. My thinking is:

• The Conservatives will be targeting their spending reasonably carefully in Scotland and we wouldn't be anywhere on their target list.
• I guess this applies to the LibDems as well, although I'm a bit disappointed because they've historically had a fairly good ground game locally, and seem to have an office round the corner which is available for their use any time they want it (it was also used as an MPs office in the second series of Clique)
• The Scottish Family party and Alba I understand will be able to lean on their national campaigns to put together a couple of hundred votes so probably don't gain much from printing leaflets.
• Our consistently-pathetic former Conservative councillor, who finally lost his job at the last election, has decided to froth out his dotage for Reform. Since he very rarely bothered to do more than the minimum as a councillor, even with the backing of a meaningful local party, it's not surprising that he's done nothing this time

The main surprise is that there are two independents and neither of them have made any effort. I just can't see the point in standing with no party affiliation and then not even trying, unless they want to test whether even their mothers love them enough to vote for them.

 

[52290]

As you say, highly amusing !

If you reform reform you get former which my dictionary defines as "of an earlier time".

 

[43096]

Finally got Reform, Conservative & LibDem leaflets today.
I’ve had at least 3xLabour already, it’s clear where the effort lies.
I voted by post a week ago.
LibDem mainly gone to ground (per the next poster)
The Conservative (Esther McVey) is against so many things I’m in favour of - HS2, Europe, gay marriage
Reform is beyond the pale for me

I think the LibDems have been putting a lot of effort into your neighbouring constituencies of Cheadle and Hazel Grove. Not sure they're making much effort in Tatton or Macclesfield in consequence.

 

[jfollows]

I think the LibDems have been putting a lot of effort into your neighbouring constituencies of Cheadle and Hazel Grove. Not sure they're making much effort in Tatton or Macclesfield in consequence.

That makes a lot of sense, thank you. Labour to win in Macclesfield and - less likely but still very possible - here in Tatton.

 

[Busaholic]

Farage probably forgot that the UK has had first hand experience of Russia's dirty tactics: we had two state-sponsored poisonings on UK soil from Russia, one of them leading to the death of an innocent civilian and severe health problems to several others. There were also 10 UK citizens killed on the MH17 flight shot down (the loss of 193 Dutch citizens goes a long way to Dutch support for Ukraine being very high as well).

Staying with Reform they've had to drop another 3 candidates over offensive remarks:

Reform UK drops three candidates over offensive comments

The candidates will still appear on the ballot paper as it is too late to remove them.

www.bbc.co.uk

There's a sting in the tail (or tale!) though, as ever with Farage. Although he claims to want to have nothing to do with them anymore, he is asking people to still vote for them, as their names cannot be removed from the ballot papers of course. This is supposedly on the basis that any votes they garnered would get added to Reform's overall tally in the election. So, if by some aberration one came top of their poll and got elected as a Reform MP Uncle Nigel would still denounce them. Pull the other one, Farage... Hope Channel Four take you for all the mney you claim to have in Coutts.

 

[AlterEgo]

Farage probably forgot that the UK has had first hand experience of Russia's dirty tactics: we had two state-sponsored poisonings on UK soil from Russia, one of them leading to the death of an innocent civilian and severe health problems to several others. There were also 10 UK citizens killed on the MH17 flight shot down (the loss of 193 Dutch citizens goes a long way to Dutch support for Ukraine being very high as well).

Staying with Reform they've had to drop another 3 candidates over offensive remarks:

Reform UK drops three candidates over offensive comments

The candidates will still appear on the ballot paper as it is too late to remove them.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just to note Nigel would still like your vote for those spectacularly racist, basket case candidates a way of showing support for his party.

Asked what Reform would say to voters in the constituencies where the candidates had been dropped, the party spokesman said he would “encourage them to vote for the party, by voting for these people on the ballot paper".

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Just to note Nigel would still like your vote for those spectacularly racist, basket case candidates a way of showing support for his party.

Asked what Reform would say to voters in the constituencies where the candidates had been dropped, the party spokesman said he would “encourage them to vote for the party, by voting for these people on the ballot paper".

Whilst we don't want anyone to have their faces eaten by Leopards we would still encourage you to vote for Leopards Eating People's Faces.

 

[takno]

Whilst we don't want anyone to have their faces eaten by Leopards we would still encourage you to vote for Leopards Eating People's Faces.

In all fairness neither of Conservative or Labour have come out against leopard face eating in their manifestos, and everybody knows that the 15 minute city advocated by the greens actually means that you'll never be more than 15 minutes away from a ravenous leopard. There's three lions on the shirt, and only Reform is willing to stand up and ensure that groups of three lions will be the only big cats eating faces in our united republic of Wetherspoonia.

At least I think that's what it said in their manifesto

 

[OhNoAPacer]

In all fairness neither of Conservative or Labour have come out against leopard face eating in their manifestos, and everybody knows that the 15 minute city advocated by the greens actually means that you'll never be more than 15 minutes away from a ravenous leopard. There's three lions on the shirt, and only Reform is willing to stand up and ensure that groups of three lions will be the only big cats eating faces in our united republic of Wetherspoonia.

At least I think that's what it said in their manifesto

Though technically the 3 lions are actually leopards.

 

[Falcon1200]

Council tax in England is based on historic house values, from 33 years ago.

As it is in Scotland too, resulting in the situation where a house extended before the Great Valuation is in a higher Council Tax band than houses extended since; Despite the houses extended since now being larger! Another Council Tax unfairness.

There's another issue: If the house valuations were kept up-to-date, that would give people a perverse disincentive to make home improvements. If you're wondering whether you can afford to do a loft conversion, then knowing that, if you go ahead and pay lots of money to do it, one of your 'rewards' will be a bigger council tax bill every year forever is not going to help!

But OTOH if people can afford home improvements large enough to push their home into a higher Council Tax band they can afford to pay more Council Tax!

Council Tax won't be reformed or abolished. It is all too difficult, and not worth the effort for the amount of revenue it raises. In particular a revaluation isn't going to happen because anyone who goes up a band (or possibly up more than one band) is going to be hit by a very big increase in their council tax bill.

Non-reformation leads to the unfairness regarding Council Tax bands I mentioned above.

This is not correct. A revaluation of properties would have no impact on the overall amount of Council Tax collected. That is set by each council in its annual budget. All a revaluation would do is redistribute the existing total council tax collected in a different way.

How would it not lead to more revenue, if as in the example in my first comment, houses were moved in a higher Council Tax band having been enlarged and improved since their initial valuation?

Taxation, whether at a national or local level, is an absolutely inevitable and necessary means of funding the services we all use, however whatever system is used must be seen and considered to be fair, and Council Tax as it is operated at present most certainly is not.

 

[317 forever]

Michael Foot was a regular on the 24 bus too, using his bus pass when he became eligible.

Had he lived long enough, he would have been horrified that this became the first route to be fully converted to Borismasters.

 

[Magdalia]

How would it not lead to more revenue, if as in the example in my first comment, houses were moved in a higher Council Tax band having been enlarged and improved since their initial valuation?

I explained how Council Tax is set in #1817, which I have repeated below.

There are some misunderstandings here about local government finance in general and council tax in particular.

Before the start of each financial year, each local authority sets a budget of what it plans to spend and how that will be funded. That includes its council tax requirement, the amount it needs to raise from council tax.

At the same time each billing authority calculates the council tax base, the number of properties in each council tax band, and in particular the number of band D equivalents, each of the other bands being on a fixed ratio to band D.

The band D council tax is then calculated by dividing the council tax requirement by the number of band D equivalents, and the other bands by applying the fixed ratios to the band D number.

Reform of council tax on its own does not affect each local authority's council tax requirement, that still comes out of the budget setting process. The main impact of changing the council tax bands, either by a property revaluation, and/or by changing the ratios between the council tax bands, is to change how the council tax requirement is distributed amongst properties within each local authority.

In particular it would not directly redistribute any funds from one local authority to another. That happens all the time through grants from central government. But council tax reform would change the council tax base, and there might be an indirect effect if the council tax base is part of any of the grant distribution calculations.

If a council has more properties moving upwards than moving downwards, that will increase its council tax base. That gives the council more band D equivalents to share the cost of the total council tax requirement, which is still determined by the budget setting process in the usual way. As a result the Band D council tax rate will go down, and when the fixed ratios are applied, the rates for all of the other bands will go down too. The people who go up a band pay more, but the people who stay in the same band pay less. The people who go down a band get double stamps through decreases in both the banding and the rate.

On the other hand, if there were more downward revaluations than upward revaluations then the council tax base would shrink. This gives the council fewer band D equivalents to share the cost of the total council tax requirement. This would result in the Band D council tax rate going up, and when the fixed ratios are applied, the rates for all of the other bands will go up too. Everyone would pay more, except for the lucky few who had a downward revaluation. The very unlucky people who had an upward revaluation would get a double whammy of increases in both the banding and the rate.

Are you still sure that you want to do this Minister?

 

[317 forever]

While Sevenoaks seems to be one of the few seats which is anticipated to return a Conservative MP in all of the current polling, Central Devon is much more at risk.

Mel Stride could be the new Chris Patten. He has campaigned as though he is the Conservative chairman (where has Richard Holden been recently?) and could lose his seat in the process.

 

[JamesT]

As it is in Scotland too, resulting in the situation where a house extended before the Great Valuation is in a higher Council Tax band than houses extended since; Despite the houses extended since now being larger! Another Council Tax unfairness.

Unless things are very different in Scotland, extending a house since 1991 would potentially make it liable to move up a band. But the reassessment only generally happens when the house is sold as you’re not going to appeal the band you’re in because you think it should be higher.

 

[jfollows]

Desperation final tactics from the Conservatives now, "buyer's remorse" and

It’s clear that Labour would do irreversible damage within just 100 days of coming to power.

from Rishi.
It's also insulting to tell people that they shouldn't vote a particular way but it's expected.
Rishi probably knows full well that nobody is listening to him, and those that are can think of countless examples of "irreversible damage" he and his party has been responsible for. Maybe some of us are more tolerant of 2010-2016 than others, but definitely since 2019.
But it sounds to me as if the final tactic is to insult anyone who won't vote for him, and I'd find that counter-productive (I’ve already voted by post).

 

[edwin_m]

Though technically the 3 lions are actually leopards.

So that's three lies then. Boris must be behind this.

(where has Richard Holden been recently?)

Busy getting himself nominated on a shortlist of one for a neigbouring seat only 200 miles away.

 

[JamesT]

Desperation final tactics from the Conservatives now, "buyer's remorse" and

from Rishi.
It's also insulting to tell people that they shouldn't vote a particular way but it's expected.
Rishi probably knows full well that nobody is listening to him, and those that are can think of countless examples of "irreversible damage" he and his party has been responsible for. Maybe some of us are more tolerant of 2010-2016 than others, but definitely since 2019.
But it sounds to me as if the final tactic is to insult anyone who won't vote for him, and I'd find that counter-productive (I’ve already voted by post).

It sounds more like it’s struck a nerve with you personally. Campaigning on the basis that the other lot are going to destroy everything has been standard for years. How many times have Labour wheeled out “N days to save the NHS”?

 

[jfollows]

It sounds more like it’s struck a nerve with you personally.

Probably, although it just makes me laugh more than anything really, if Rishi wants to treat me like an idiot I'm only too happy to be part of ensuring that he's out of a job on Friday I guess.

 

[takno]

Probably, although it just makes me laugh more than anything really, if Rishi wants to treat me like an idiot I'm only too happy to be part of ensuring that he's out of a job on Friday I guess.

I think it's pretty natural at this stage for all the parties to try to solidify their base, pushing people who have already decided that they prefer them to actually go out and vote. It's too late to fundamentally win arguments or change minds, you just have to drag people to action.

Fear is probably the most effective motivator for this, and it probably doesn't matter too much about further alienating people who can't be won over. As a result the messaging from all sides will often start to sound more and more mendacious to the people it is no longer directed at.

 

[Magdalia]

Aggregating Predictions for the General Election

has a table with the predictions of the winner at each constituency from these sources:

• Britain Predicts (New Statesman) (22 June)
• The Economist (26 June)
• Electoral Calculus (26 June)
• Focaldata (24 June)
• The FT (25 June)
• Ipsos (18 June)
• More in Common (19 June)
• Savanta (19 June)
• Survation (16 June)
• WeThink (26 June)
• YouGov (19 June)

Yesterday I got a few hours to spend some quality time with 631 rows and 12 columns of data.

The poll sources have now been updated and the polling used is as follows:

Data is taken from:

• Britain Predicts (New Statesman) (22 June)
• The Economist (28 June)
• electionmaps (27 June)
• Electoral Calculus (28 June)
• Focaldata (24 June)
• The FT (25 June)
• Ipsos (18 June)
• More in Common (19 June)
• Savanta (19 June)
• Survation (28 June)
• WeThink (26 June)
• YouGov (19 June)

As far as I can tell the 2019 results are adjusted for boundary changes but not by-elections, defections or expulsions.

I looked at 2 aspects.

Constituencies where all of the pollsters have the same 2024 prediction.

I identified 391 constituencies where all 12 pollsters have the same predicted outcome in 2024. This can be broken down as follows for 2019 estimated result and 2024 predicted result.

191 lab hold
147 lab gain from con
12 lab gain from snp

6 lib hold
15 lib gain from con

14 con hold
4 snp hold
2 pc hold

On the basis of unanimous predictions only, Labour would win enough seats for an overall majority.

The 14 unanimous conservative holds are:

Arundel and South Downs
Beaconsfield
Brentwood and Ongar
Christchurch
East Surrey
Hamble Valley
Maldon
New Forest East
North Dorset
North East Hampshire
North West Essex
Sevenoaks
South Shropshire
Weald of Kent

The 15 unanimous Liberal Democrat gains are:

Cheadle
Cheltenham
Dorking and Horley
Eastbourne
Esher and Walton
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Henley and Thame
Lewes
South Cambridgeshire
St Ives
Taunton and Wellington
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester

Black Sheep constituencies

These are where all pollsters agree except for one Black Sheep pollster predicting a different result. I have identified 73 of these and here is a Black Sheep ranking by pollster. I devised this as a fairly crude metric of how much each pollster's methodology diverges from the herd.

18 More in Common
10 Savanta
10 We Think
7 Ipsos
6 Electoral Calculus
6 Survation
5 Britain Predicts
5 Yougov
2 Election Maps
2 Focal Data
2 FT
0 Economist

Of the 18 More in Common Black Sheep, 14 are predicted Conservative holds where all other pollsters are predicting Conservative defeats, 13 to Labour and 1 to Liberal Democrat. The remaining 4 are all in Scotland.

On the other hand, all 10 Savanta Black Sheep are predicted Labour gains where all other pollsters are predicting another result. 8 of these are otherwise Conservative holds, the other 2 are in Scotland.

Regarding We Think, 6 of their 10 Black Sheep are where they are predicting an SNP hold and all other pollsters are predicting a Labour gain.

6 of the 7 Ipsos Black Sheep are predicted Conservative holds where all others are predicting a Liberal Democrat gain.

Electoral Calculus are the only pollster predicting that Galloway and Corbyn will win, they are also predicting that Reform will win in Barnsley South.

Another point worth noting is that 18 of the 73 Black Sheep predictions are in Scotland, which suggests that there is more divergence in methodology in Scotland than in England.

Here are some tentative inferences.

• voting on the day is going to need to be very significantly different from all of the polls to give any result other than a big Labour victory, and differences in polling methodology are only a matter of degree
• Predictions for Scotland are not as good as for England
• Polling consensus is possibly represented by the Economist, Focal Data and FT polls, though consensus isn't necessarily correct
• I was unsure about including the Election Maps poll there because their Liberal Democrat/Conservative split is rather different from the Economist, Focal Data and FT polls

 

[DarloRich]

where do think Reform will finish up? i think a high overall vote share but low number of seats.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

where do think Reform will finish up? i think a high overall vote share but low number of seats.

Similar or even higher number of votes cast than the LibDems (who will likely nevertheless pick up slightly more parliamentary seats)?

 

[takno]

Yesterday I got a few hours to spend some quality time with 631 rows and 12 columns of data.

The poll sources have now been updated and the polling used is as follows:




As far as I can tell the 2019 results are adjusted for boundary changes but not by-elections, defections or expulsions.

I looked at 2 aspects.

Constituencies where all of the pollsters have the same 2024 prediction.

I identified 391 constituencies where all 12 pollsters have the same predicted outcome in 2024. This can be broken down as follows for 2019 estimated result and 2024 predicted result.

191 lab hold
147 lab gain from con
12 lab gain from snp

6 lib hold
15 lib gain from con

14 con hold
4 snp hold
2 pc hold

On the basis of unanimous predictions only, Labour would win enough seats for an overall majority.

The 14 unanimous conservative holds are:

Arundel and South Downs
Beaconsfield
Brentwood and Ongar
Christchurch
East Surrey
Hamble Valley
Maldon
New Forest East
North Dorset
North East Hampshire
North West Essex
Sevenoaks
South Shropshire
Weald of Kent

The 15 unanimous Liberal Democrat gains are:

Cheadle
Cheltenham
Dorking and Horley
Eastbourne
Esher and Walton
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hazel Grove
Henley and Thame
Lewes
South Cambridgeshire
St Ives
Taunton and Wellington
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Wimbledon
Winchester

Black Sheep constituencies

These are where all pollsters agree except for one Black Sheep pollster predicting a different result. I have identified 73 of these and here is a Black Sheep ranking by pollster. I devised this as a fairly crude metric of how much each pollster's methodology diverges from the herd.

18 More in Common
10 Savanta
10 We Think
7 Ipsos
6 Electoral Calculus
6 Survation
5 Britain Predicts
5 Yougov
2 Election Maps
2 Focal Data
2 FT
0 Economist

Of the 18 More in Common Black Sheep, 14 are predicted Conservative holds where all other pollsters are predicting Conservative defeats, 13 to Labour and 1 to Liberal Democrat. The remaining 4 are all in Scotland.

On the other hand, all 10 Savanta Black Sheep are predicted Labour gains where all other pollsters are predicting another result. 8 of these are otherwise Conservative holds, the other 2 are in Scotland.

Regarding We Think, 6 of their 10 Black Sheep are where they are predicting an SNP hold and all other pollsters are predicting a Labour gain.

6 of the 7 Ipsos Black Sheep are predicted Conservative holds where all others are predicting a Liberal Democrat gain.

Electoral Calculus are the only pollster predicting that Galloway and Corbyn will win, they are also predicting that Reform will win in Barnsley South.

Another point worth noting is that 18 of the 73 Black Sheep predictions are in Scotland, which suggests that there is more divergence in methodology in Scotland than in England.

Here are some tentative inferences.

• voting on the day is going to need to be very significantly different from all of the polls to give any result other than a big Labour victory, and differences in polling methodology are only a matter of degree
• Predictions for Scotland are not as good as for England
• Polling consensus is possibly represented by the Economist, Focal Data and FT polls, though consensus isn't necessarily correct
• I was unsure about including the Election Maps poll there because their Liberal Democrat/Conservative split is rather different from the Economist, Focal Data and FT polls

Great analysis, thanks. Polling always tends to be worse in Scotland - I think it's just fundamentally harder to predict a 4-way fight. In this election the collapse of the SNP means that there are two complex drifts in play and honestly more or less everything feels like it's genuinely up for grabs.

where do think Reform will finish up? i think a high overall vote share but low number of seats.

I don't think they'll do all that well on vote share - I suspect their vote is quite soft, and is being overpredicted in a lot of the polls. At best I'd guess they'll be level-pegging with the Lib Dems. In terms of seats that could quite easily equate to none.

That's just an instinct though, and I don't think we're seeing what's happening on the ground in relevant constituencies. I genuinely wouldn't be surprised to see them break through and take a dozen red wall constituencies.

It's easy to dismiss them because they're too obviously charlatans and are too awful to contemplate, but I think in the end mainstream politics has to address the relentless growth of inequality and failure to bother gaining societal consensus on social changes.

 

[oldman]

Looking at the leaflets I have had:

Tories don't mention Sunak, or anything to do with the British government. It's a mixture of 'we hate the SNP' and local government issues (potholes - they're against them). Picture of candidate.

LibDems (4th last time) - 'the choice is clear here' but don't mention Labour (who are most likely to challenge the SNP). Offering 'a local champion to clean up sewage from our rivers', which is nice of him. Pictures of candidate and (Scottish) leader, no mention of Ed Davey. Two leaflets.

Sitting MP Joanna Cherry (SNP) has a small strapline SNP - for Scotland, but otherwise doesn't mention the party or its policies and boasts of being a thorn in their side. Pushing herself as independent. Opposes 'top-down' climate crisis policies and supports 'rights of women and girls'. Picture of candidate.

Scottish Greens don't mention gender on which they are usually vocal. No more oil, wealth tax, defend migrants. Picture of the joint leaders not the candidate.

Labour boringly conventional - Tories out, headline policies, hard-working local councillor, best placed to beat SNP, pictures of candidate and party leaders (both).

Scottish Family Party - pro-life, free speech, responsibility, anti-trans. Picture of candidate.

Group calling themselves Edinburgh People who don't like political parties so they're forming one. Their single issue is, er, Edinburgh People. Picture of someone (leader or candidate?).

Reform - nothing.

 

[43096]

Though technically the 3 lions are actually leopards.

Don’t mention that foreigner Jules Rimet (still gleaming), though.

 

[Magdalia]

where do think Reform will finish up?

In terms of seats that could quite easily equate to none.

Although the sample sizes are much bigger, MRP still works best on the battles between the big major parties, and less well for small parties hoping to do well in a few target seats.

There are some Reform victories predicted by the MRP polls

Clacton 8 of 12 pollsters have a Reform (Farage) victory, Focal Data, More in Common and We Think have a Conservative hold and Savanta has Labour

Ashfield Election Maps, Electoral Calculus, Ipsos and YouGov have a Reform (Anderson) victory, the others are all Labour

Boston and Skegness Britain Predicts and Electoral Calculus have a Reform (Tice) victory, the others are Conservative hold except Savanta has Labour

Louth and Horncastle Electoral Calculus and Yougov have a Reform (who?) victory, 8 pollsters have Conservative but Savanta and We Think have Labour

Note from the Black Sheep analysis above that Savanta are particularly inclined to go for a Labour victory.

There are 12 constituencies with 1 pollster predicting a Reform victory. I have put these in pollster order:

Britain Predicts Hornchurch and Upminster, Mid Buckinghamshire, South Basildon and East Thurrock
Electoral Calculus Barnsley South, Skipton and Ripon
Ipsos North West Leicestershire
Survation Exmouth and Exeter East
We Think Isle of Wight West, Newark, South Suffolk
Yougov Basildon and Billericay, Great Yarmouth

This means that Focal Data, More in Common and Savanta are predicting no wins for Reform, while Economist and FT only have Reform winning in Clacton.

 

[takno]

Group calling themselves Edinburgh People who don't like political parties so they're forming one. Their single issue is, er, Edinburgh People. Picture of someone (leader or candidate?).

They're an interesting collection of people. I honestly can't decide whether it's a publicity stunt for the leader's rather unimpressive pizza shop, or just a bunch of 5 depressing misfits. I'm wavering between the two - there's a previous thing for the pizza shop which was pitched as a rather hapless "nice" gesture gone viral, but basically read like it had been set up for the local paper.

Either way, they're completely unable to make any difference, and aren't really worthy of the time I've just spent reading their website

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jun 2024 ==

Although the sample sizes are much bigger, MRP still works best on the battles between the big major parties, and less well for small parties hoping to do well in a few target seats.

There are some Reform victories predicted by the MRP polls

Clacton 8 of 12 pollsters have a Reform (Farage) victory, Focal Data, More in Common and We Think have a Conservative hold and Savanta has Labour

Ashfield Election Maps, Electoral Calculus, Ipsos and YouGov have a Reform (Anderson) victory, the others are all Labour

Boston and Skegness Britain Predicts and Electoral Calculus have a Reform (Tice) victory, the others are Conservative hold except Savanta has Labour

Louth and Horncastle Electoral Calculus and Yougov have a Reform (who?) victory, 8 pollsters have Conservative but Savanta and We Think have Labour

Note from the Black Sheep analysis above that Savanta are particularly inclined to go for a Labour victory.

There are 12 constituencies with 1 pollster predicting a Reform victory. I have put these in pollster order:

Britain Predicts Hornchurch and Upminster, Mid Buckinghamshire, South Basildon and East Thurrock
Electoral Calculus Barnsley South, Skipton and Ripon
Ipsos North West Leicestershire
Survation Exmouth and Exeter East
We Think Isle of Wight West, Newark, South Suffolk
Yougov Basildon and Billericay, Great Yarmouth

This means that Focal Data, More in Common and Savanta are predicting no wins for Reform, while Economist and FT only have Reform winning in Clacton.

Again a great breakdown. I'm interested to see if there will be any kind of "shy Reform" or indeed "lazy Reform" effect which makes the polls systematically wrong. In the case of Clacton and Ashfield I'd also be interested to see if there is a tactical vote against Reform. I can definitely see the potential for Labour and Lib Dem voters holding their nose and voting Tory in Clacton.

 

[Yew]

Their single issue is, er, Edinburgh People.

For or Against?

 

[Busaholic]

Had he lived long enough, he would have been horrified that this became the first route to be fully converted to Borismasters.

I think he'd have been more worried about the enormous reduction in even the notional frequency.

 

[takno]

For or Against?

They don't appear to have a settled opinion either way, but the really important thing is to put them on the agenda. Edinburgh has been all about the cats and dogs for too long, and it's time for a much clearer bipedal focus.