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UK General Election 2024

Now that we are in the final throes of the campaign, who will you be voting for?

  • Labour

    Votes: 104 49.5%
  • Conservative

    Votes: 8 3.8%
  • Reform

    Votes: 18 8.6%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 57 27.1%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 15 7.1%
  • SNP

    Votes: 4 1.9%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Independent

    Votes: 3 1.4%

  • Total voters
    210
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takno

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I have a relative who lives in what would typically be a safe Tory seat. He hates reform. Usually votes Lib Dem. Labour are nowhere in this seat. Tory mp is not a head banger afaik. I wonder if he should vote Tory to limit damage from Reform?

Interested in people’s thoughts.

I doubt he’s voted Tory in the last 40+ years.
I wouldn't imagine for a second that he would do that, but it's unlikely to prove very useful anyway - the headbangers in the remains of the Tory party will count every vote the party got as a vote for being even more extremist

Trump; Andrew Tate - judge a man by the friends he has....????
I'm not sure either man would be particularly happy to be described as a friend of Nigel. Really more "judge a man by the people he awkwardly hangs around near and casually name-drops like they're besties"
 
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Busaholic

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I have a relative who lives in what would typically be a safe Tory seat. He hates reform. Usually votes Lib Dem. Labour are nowhere in this seat. Tory mp is not a head banger afaik. I wonder if he should vote Tory to limit damage from Reform?

Interested in people’s thoughts.

I doubt he’s voted Tory in the last 40+ years.
I see no reason why he shouldn't vote LibDem, there presumably being more than a chance of them being successful this time.
 

nw1

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How much of the Tory Right will there be left in parliament next month?

Sadly a lot of the key players appear to be in safe seats. Not all; Gullis will surely go but Braverman and Badenoch are safe.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I have noticed that this week, the Tories are adopting a quite clever strategy of saying 'Sure, we're not going to form a Government, but you liked your local MP didn't you? S/He's done so much. So why not vote for him/her to continue helping you locally'. Many are removing any mention of being Tory from literature or their social media posts and suggesting they're now independent.

They obviously hope people will do that up and down the country and they'll win. It's an interesting strategy, and ultimately the best they have now given I can't see anything else working.

It also goes to show just how toxic the Tories have become, although it isn't the first time candidates have played down their party association.

Mine has done that, but they have clearly stated "Conservatives" on the front page, and there is the usual "only Rishi can deal with threats to our country" blurb on the back, probably copy-and-pasted from national literature.

I doubt that so many people are naive enough that it will result in a Tory victory, though.

I do wonder whether Farage's pronouncements will be a pivotal point, though, and whether it's time to revise upwards the number of Tory holds to between 150 and 200. This would still be the same ballpark as 1997.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Is it though? MAGA supporters love Putin. He's a dictator who can get rid of opposition (they'd love to do that). Putin has very similar views on non-white people, LGBTQ+ issues and so on.

Trump loves Putin too. He'd love to be like Putin.

Oh and I am pretty sure the MAGA crowd love Andrew Tate too.

Reform seems to be trying to create the same sort of cult here too, especially with the amount of MAGA profile bots supporting Reform and comparisons already being suggested to electoral fraud (i.e. the only reason Reform is not going to win is because people are modifying votes at polling stations, and postal votes are all fake... yes, these things ARE being said already).

I think Nigel will ultimately flounder because, like the MAGA movement, it isn't as big as we think thanks to social media and how so many people love following them because they're often very entertaining. They think they're a bigger crowd than they are, and hopefully why Reform isn't going to go anywhere. My main fear is Nigel becomes MP, because that's his way into the Conservatives. I don't really care about anyone else.

Perhaps, but I'm not sure that we have quite such a high proportion of deranged far-right extremists here as there evidently are in the USA.
 
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jon0844

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I am not sure the US does either, and we will find out after their next election. They're very loud though.
 

edwin_m

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How much of the Tory Right will there be left in parliament next month?

Sadly a lot of the key players appear to be in safe seats. Not all; Gullis will surely go but Braverman and Badenoch are safe.
A constituency that selects and elects a more centrist Tory is probably going to have a more centrist electorate, who are more likely to look at the recent trajectory, conclude it isn’t their party any more and switch to Labour or LibDem. Meanwhile any right wing voters may decide their Tory is actually a closet socialist and go for Reform.

A constituency whose Tory incumbent is right wing probably has a more right wing electorate too, so they are less at risk from Reform. Centrist voters there are likely to be few in number and possibly didn’t vote Tory in 2019 so can’t be lost now.

Hence, in this election, it’s likely that the surviving Tory MPs will be further right on average.
 

bahnause

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Just got approached by the Reform candidate as I walked down Northallerton high street. He looks like a thug in a cheap suit about to go to court, and was unable to answer a couple of pretty basic questions I asked him. Both times he tried to turn the subject to immigration. Deeply unimpressive
That comes as no surprise. It doesn't just affect the candidates, but the entire party. If the press didn't just use reform and Nigel Farage as clickbait, but did their job and dealt with the content, that would be progress. Even the simplest questions on substantive policy make it clear how empty and factually incompetent this party is. In an interview with Independent TV, the simplest questions on climate change, Russia and finance were enough to turn Farage into the stammering heap of misery he really is. Beyond disinformation, disgust and contempt, there is not much substance to their policies.
 

renegademaster

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Yes, I'm familiar, but I don't see the Tories merging into Reform.

What is more likely is Farage abandoning his little special purpose vehicle, Reform UK (limited) and simply attempting to take back the Tory rump of supporters into the Tory Party, where it will then die if he becomes its leader.

Anyone who is voting Reform deserves what is coming; this is not going to be a good time to live in somewhere like Clacton. Labour are not interested in places like that any more; they know where their vote is and it isn't in coastal towns which have been on life support for decades.
What exactly do you think is coming from Clacton if they vote in Farage
 

Howardh

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What exactly do you think is coming from Clacton if they vote in Farage
Should it be illegal for a UK political party to stand for parliament if it's leader isn't elected by it's members? On asking that, I appreciate that you can stand as an unelected individual, such as Binface, which makes my suggestion problematic, but if Farage gets elected this is the first time and Ref have 3+ seats, to my knowledge, that a party with (say) more than there seats has an unelected leader?
 

renegademaster

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Should it be illegal for a UK political party to stand for parliament if it's leader isn't elected by it's members?
Whether the voters are OK with that is down to them. Reform's governance structure is hardly a secret. Seems a bit iffy to suddenly ban "private" parties because one appears with you politics you don't like. Lists based around a single person who created it aren't uncommon in Europe. The current French president runs a personal party. The tory Party while letting grassroot members vote for their leader they don't get any say on which candidates they get given, and until recently Labour wasn't a one man one vote democracy either.
 
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Gloster

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Should it be illegal for a UK political party to stand for parliament if it's leader isn't elected by it's members? On asking that, I appreciate that you can stand as an unelected individual, such as Binface, which makes my suggestion problematic, but if Farage gets elected this is the first time and Ref have 3+ seats, to my knowledge, that a party with (say) more than there seats has an unelected leader?

I think the current situation is reasonable and any meddling with the rules might have unintended consequences. The Registration of Political Parties Act 1998 and the Political Parties, Referendums and Elections Act 2000 already allow a party to object to someone using their name or a similar one at an election, so if they are happy with a candidate standing under their banner, then they might as well be allowed to.
 

takno

Verified Rep - Traksy
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The current French president runs a personal party
Non right-wing-extemist French politics is indeed being torn apart by the massive egos of Macron and Melanchon. I'm not a huge fan of changing the rules, but I'm struggling to think of any ego-driven populist mass movements which have been good for their respective countries.
 

HSTEd

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That comes as no surprise. It doesn't just affect the candidates, but the entire party. If the press didn't just use reform and Nigel Farage as clickbait, but did their job and dealt with the content, that would be progress. Even the simplest questions on substantive policy make it clear how empty and factually incompetent this party is. In an interview with Independent TV, the simplest questions on climate change, Russia and finance were enough to turn Farage into the stammering heap of misery he really is. Beyond disinformation, disgust and contempt, there is not much substance to their policies.
Well that sort of questioning would also dismantle virtually all of the parties, as was demonstrated when Beth Rigby tore both Starmer and Sunak to pieces.

This election is strangely detached from the economic reality, as numerous experts have pointed out.
 

JamesT

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Should it be illegal for a UK political party to stand for parliament if it's leader isn't elected by it's members? On asking that, I appreciate that you can stand as an unelected individual, such as Binface, which makes my suggestion problematic, but if Farage gets elected this is the first time and Ref have 3+ seats, to my knowledge, that a party with (say) more than there seats has an unelected leader?
Depending on quite how you’re defining that, none of Gordon Brown, Theresa May, or Rishi Sunak were elected by the wider membership of their parties.
I don’t think we should really be trying to regulate the internal workings of political parties like that. People can see what they’re being offered and can either vote for it or not.
 

mwmbwls

Member
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Messages
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Getting back to railways , the July edition of "Modern Railways" hit the Mwmbwlian door mat this morning having been written and printed before the announcement of a General Election. It is a general principle of general elections that the existing governing party cannot bind its successor to its previous policies but it can make it difficult to change them.. There is article on Page 14 headlined "HS2 Axe could constrain growth" which confirms that the NPR line from Manchester Piccadilly to Manchester Airport will be built whilst the section of HS2 2b from High Leigh to to Crewe will not, This was confirmed by a parliamentary vote on the 21st May. Labour have been careful in wording their manifesto in terms of not ruling anything in or out and my maintaining a tactical silence are keping their options open. It does however seem self evident that if NPR is built and HS2 is built that reinstating HS2's missing link might just be a matter of time.
 

Magdalia

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Should it be illegal for a UK political party to stand for parliament if it's leader isn't elected by it's members?
You have a very short memory! The current Prime Minister was not elected by the party members: when the previous Prime Minister resigned, the appointment of a successor was an urgent matter, where holding an election carried some significant risks for the stability of the UK economy.

Depending on quite how you’re defining that, none of Gordon Brown, Theresa May, or Rishi Sunak were elected by the wider membership of their parties.
Involvement of party members in selecting party leaders is a relatively recent phenomenon. Neil Kinnock, elected by an electoral college in 1983, was the first Labour leader where party members had the opportunity to vote. In the Conservative Party that did not happen until David Cameron in 2005. I can remember Ted Heath replacing Alec Douglas Home in 1965 when he was the first Conservative leader to be chosen by a transparent vote of party MPs.
 

renegademaster

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Nothing will come from Clacton and nothing will change for the people who live there. It’s a protest vote.
Would Keir give then something different than national policies he's already announced if they voted in the Labour candidate? Your post almost read like a threat they should be punished for voting a way you don't like
 

ChrisC

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Tell him to have a look at the GetVoting website. Whilst he doesn't have to take its advice (it tells you who to tactically vote for to remove Tories), they do have up to date polling for each constituency, so he can decide what might be for the best. Hopefully for him the tactical voting recommendation is Lib Dem!

GetVoting
I’ve just had a look at the Getvoting website and found it quite interesting.
I‘ve always been a centre right Conservative voter, but at the last election in 2019 I voted Lib Dem because as I didn’t agree with Brexit there was no way that I could vote for Boris. During these last 5 years I have just got to the point where I want the Conservatives out and I say that as someone who has been voting Conservative since the late 1970’s.

Where I have live the current MP is Conservative, as it generally is, and he had a majority of just over 16,000 over Labour in 2019. The Lib Dems have never done anything here and didn‘t even quite manage to get 3,000 votes in 2019.

In the 2019 election the share of the votes here was Conservative 60.8%, Labour 30.1%, Lib Dem 5.5% and Green 2.3%.
Getvoting are predicting for the forthcoming election Conservative 27.2%, Labour 45.1%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Green 4.2% and Reform 17.7%.
To vote tactically it is suggested to vote Labour.

If it was looking very close I would perhaps have considered tactically voting Labour just to get the Conservatives out. However, as it’s looking like a comfortable Labour majority here, I am thinking very seriously of voting Lib Dem again, even though here it could be seen as a wasted vote.
 

Tester

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I’ve just had a look at the Getvoting website and found it quite interesting.
I‘ve always been a centre right Conservative voter, but at the last election in 2019 I voted Lib Dem because as I didn’t agree with Brexit there was no way that I could vote for Boris. During these last 5 years I have just got to the point where I want the Conservatives out and I say that as someone who has been voting Conservative since the late 1970’s.

Where I have live the current MP is Conservative, as it generally is, and he had a majority of just over 16,000 over Labour in 2019. The Lib Dems have never done anything here and didn‘t even quite manage to get 3,000 votes in 2019.

In the 2019 election the share of the votes here was Conservative 60.8%, Labour 30.1%, Lib Dem 5.5% and Green 2.3%.
Getvoting are predicting for the forthcoming election Conservative 27.2%, Labour 45.1%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Green 4.2% and Reform 17.7%.
To vote tactically it is suggested to vote Labour.

If it was looking very close I would perhaps have considered tactically voting Labour just to get the Conservatives out. However, as it’s looking like a comfortable Labour majority here, I am thinking very seriously of voting Lib Dem again, even though here it could be seen as a wasted vote.
If you really want the Conservatives out, hold your nose and vote Labour - it doesn't bind you for the future!

Don't leave it to others - we should all do our bit.
 

Gloster

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If it was looking very close I would perhaps have considered tactically voting Labour just to get the Conservatives out. However, as it’s looking like a comfortable Labour majority here, I am thinking very seriously of voting Lib Dem again, even though here it could be seen as a wasted vote.

And here you have the problem. I fear that a lot of people who want the Conservatives out will look at things and say, “Oh, well, Labour are bound to get in, so I won’t bother to vote.” The result will be that Labour fail to take a number, possibly a decisive number, of seats. If you want the Conservatives out, vote for whichever party is the most likely to get them out.

Although my heart and my recent votes go towards Green, I will be voting Labour as they have the best chance of defeating the Conservatives in my completely altered constituency. I was thinking that if Labour had no chance, I would vote Green, but as they seem to have a chance, I will vote for them.
 

Enthusiast

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...when the previous Prime Minister resigned, the appointment of a successor was an urgent matter, where holding an election carried some significant risks for the stability of the UK economy.
I think as well as that it carried a significant risk that the party members would once again select somebody not on the "approved" list.
 

DynamicSpirit

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In the 2019 election the share of the votes here was Conservative 60.8%, Labour 30.1%, Lib Dem 5.5% and Green 2.3%.
Getvoting are predicting for the forthcoming election Conservative 27.2%, Labour 45.1%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Green 4.2% and Reform 17.7%.
To vote tactically it is suggested to vote Labour.

If it was looking very close I would perhaps have considered tactically voting Labour just to get the Conservatives out. However, as it’s looking like a comfortable Labour majority here, I am thinking very seriously of voting Lib Dem again, even though here it could be seen as a wasted vote.

Personally I'd be a bit wary of that reasoning because GetVoting is using estimates based on MRP polling and other factors, and we don't really have much way of knowing how reliable those estimates are - particularly since MRP is a relatively new polling technique that hasn't got enough of a track record for us to know how good it is. If, as you say, the Tories were 30% ahead of Labour last time then that makes for what in normal circumstances would be a very safe Tory seat. In today's exceptional circumstances, I can well believe it's become marginal and that Labour might take it, but it seems to me too much of a stretch to imagine the swing would be big enough to make it safe Labour.
 

AlterEgo

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Would Keir give then something different than national policies he's already announced if they voted in the Labour candidate? Your post almost read like a threat they should be punished for voting a way you don't like
No, but Labour’s politics - a continuation of neoliberalism - will not uplift the people of Clacton anyway. And it is not a place they can be bothered to play pork barrel politics anyway. I don’t know how or why you read it as a threat I was making. I’ve just stated what I thought would happen.

Anywhere that is voting for a charlatan like Farage to “make a point” is screaming into the void. And if they’re voting positively for Farage because they actually like him, I cannot say I have much sympathy.
 

edwin_m

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Personally I'd be a bit wary of that reasoning because GetVoting is using estimates based on MRP polling and other factors, and we don't really have much way of knowing how reliable those estimates are - particularly since MRP is a relatively new polling technique that hasn't got enough of a track record for us to know how good it is.
The existence of sites that tell people their best anti-Tory tactical vote is to some extent a self-fulfilling prophecy. If all who are willing to vote tactically in a constituency go for the same candidate then the Tory is more likely to be voted out.

There are however several such sites and they may be giving different advice for the same seat. Another one is stopthetories.vote.
 

takno

Verified Rep - Traksy
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I’ve just had a look at the Getvoting website and found it quite interesting.
I‘ve always been a centre right Conservative voter, but at the last election in 2019 I voted Lib Dem because as I didn’t agree with Brexit there was no way that I could vote for Boris. During these last 5 years I have just got to the point where I want the Conservatives out and I say that as someone who has been voting Conservative since the late 1970’s.

Where I have live the current MP is Conservative, as it generally is, and he had a majority of just over 16,000 over Labour in 2019. The Lib Dems have never done anything here and didn‘t even quite manage to get 3,000 votes in 2019.

In the 2019 election the share of the votes here was Conservative 60.8%, Labour 30.1%, Lib Dem 5.5% and Green 2.3%.
Getvoting are predicting for the forthcoming election Conservative 27.2%, Labour 45.1%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Green 4.2% and Reform 17.7%.
To vote tactically it is suggested to vote Labour.

If it was looking very close I would perhaps have considered tactically voting Labour just to get the Conservatives out. However, as it’s looking like a comfortable Labour majority here, I am thinking very seriously of voting Lib Dem again, even though here it could be seen as a wasted vote.
If you want the Tories out then vote Labour. I understand you want to take advantage of the wave and use your vote to send a message, but you are part of the wave. Lots of people voted Brexit or didn't vote to send a message, and look how that turned out.
 

nw1

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Noticed that in some polls, the Tories are predicted to be almost wiped out of London, including in such true-blue areas as Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Old Bexley and Sidcup (Edward Heath's old seat).

For example YouGov: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/artic...conservatives-on-lowest-seat-total-in-history

An oddity is Finchley and Golders Green remaining Tory. This was Labour from 1997 to 2010. Perhaps this is out of sympathy for outgoing MP Mike Freer, who was the target of quite a bit of abuse.

Sadly (given who the MP is), but more predictably (as it was only Labour for one term from 1997), one of the other remaining Tory seats is Romford. Havering Borough appears to be Tory Central within London, it appears: its politics being more typical of neighbouring Essex than the capital.
 
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JonathanH

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I was thinking that if Labour had no chance, I would vote Green, but as they seem to have a chance, I will vote for them.
A Labour landslide in this election could be what the Greens need for the next, since people on the left will start to see that their views are better represented by the Green Party and have more conviction to vote for them next time. I'd imagine that a lot of people who would like to vote Green feel they have to vote Labour to kick the Conservatives out.
 

PGAT

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I think the Greens have shot themselves in the foot by opposing new homes and nuclear power with the left
 

nw1

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I think the Greens have shot themselves in the foot by opposing new homes and nuclear power with the left

I guess that depends on the individual; for those who see climate change as the biggest issue, they are likely to be still the most favoured party.
 

PGAT

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I guess that depends on the individual; for those who see climate change as the biggest issue, they are likely to be still the most favoured party.
Even then, I would say I’m the target demographic for the Green Party but they have failed to capture my interest as they oppose most of the meaningful climate policies and I believe the Lib Dems have a better manifesto regarding the climate.
 
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