UK General Election 2024

[dangie]

My Uncle was the same, liked the free parking in the town and should have been a typical Tory voter but didn't necessarily always vote for them.

Years ago my uncle used to be a member of the local tennis club. He never played tennis in his life. He joined because the club used to have a late bar and the occasional lock in

 

[najaB]

General Election "campaigns" are infantile.

It's maybe a sad reflection on the state of society, but there are an alarming number of people who pay zero attention to politics outside of election season.

 

[Falcon1200]

I think what many of us would have liked was a 2022 General Election to follow the appointment of Truss as Tory leader, to see if we, as an electorate, actually wanted her.

(For balance I will also say that a 2007 GE following the appointment of Gordon Brown would have been the fairest response).

Agree, and also when the First Minister was replaced, twice, there should have been a Scottish Parliament election; No chance of that, although I do seem to recall a certain N.Sturgeon demanding a General election when the PM changed.

Not only do I not want anybody (especially politicians) to know who I might vote for, I don't even want them to know whether or not I might vote at all.

Don't tell them, tell them your true intention, or tell them what they want to hear depending on the colour of their rosette!

 

[jfollows]

My late father was a member of the local Conservative club but he told me that I shouldn't conclude that he always voted Conservative.

People generalise that voters become more right-wing as they get older, and that may be true in general, but it's not true in anything like all cases either.
I was lucky enough to be a member of the same Oxford University Conservative Association as Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were, the first of these before me and the last three two after me. I don't think my political views have changed all that much, I've doubtless become wiser but that wasn't hard, and I supported people like Heseltine and Clarke back then, as well as Thatcher. What's changed more than me - by a long way - has been the Conservative party, it's completely changed beyond recognition from what I subscribed to and supported in my twenties. I've said many times before that I last voted Conservative in 1992, and that's because since then it's gone bonkers in my view, little Britain for sure, anti-all sorts of things I believe in, but I don't think I've become more "left wing" as I've got older, the political world is what's changed and has moved to the right.
There's nothing wrong with generalisations in appropriate context, but they shouldn't be applied to individuals.
I was appalled by Boris Johnson ten years ago, and my view hasn't changed, but as a generalisation it seems as if I'm in the majority now that I wasn't in then. My hope is for a return to greater sanity in politics, a government with an agenda and an opposition to restrain it, and we've not had anything remotely like that since 2015. If the Conservatives win fewer than 100 seats I won't be unhappy, because I think it might serve to provoke a better return to what I think of as sanity than would be the case with a less devastating loss.

 

[Busaholic]

Don't tell them, tell them your true intention, or tell them what they want to hear depending on the colour of their rosette!

Keep a copy of Watchtower magazine handy, proffer it as a 'gift' and you'll only see their exhaust fumes.

 

[Gloster]

People generalise that voters become more right-wing as they get older, and that may be true in general, but it's not true in anything like all cases either.
I was lucky enough to be a member of the same Oxford University Conservative Association as Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were, the first of these before me and the last three after me. I don't think my political views have changed all that much, I've doubtless become wiser but that wasn't hard, and I supported people like Heseltine and Clarke back then, as well as Thatcher. What's changed more than me - by a long way - has been the Conservative party, it's completely changed beyond recognition from what I subscribed to and supported in my twenties. I've said many times before that I last voted Conservative in 1992, and that's because since then it's gone bonkers in my view, little Britain for sure, anti-all sorts of things I believe in, but I don't think I've become more "left wing" as I've got older, the political world is what's changed and has moved to the right.
There's nothing wrong with generalisations in appropriate context, but they shouldn't be applied to individuals.
I was appalled by Boris Johnson ten years ago, and my view hasn't changed, but as a generalisation it seems as if I'm in the majority now that I wasn't in then. My hope is for a return to greater sanity in politics, a government with an agenda and an opposition to restrain it, and we've not had anything remotely like that since 2015. If the Conservatives win fewer than 100 seats I won't be unhappy, because I think it might serve to provoke a better return to what I think of as sanity than would be the case with a less devastating loss.

I though that Truss was a Liberal Democrat in her days at Oxford. Wikipedia says she was president of their association.

 

[jfollows]

I though that Truss was a Liberal Democrat in her days at Oxford. Wikipedia says she was president of their association.

True, thank you, I’d forgotten that fact!
EDIT I do think that Liz Truss isn’t “all there” and has some kind of mental deficiency or illness, which is probably unfair of me but I can’t work her out at all, whereas at least the others I mentioned I understand in some ways.

 

[Trackman]

My late father was a member of the local Conservative club but he told me that I shouldn't conclude that he always voted Conservative.

Funny that, my late father was too and did say to me 'Doesn't mean I vote Tory'. Says he was vetted before coming a member though - like do you vote Tory at all elections, pledge allegiance to the Queen etc.. He only joined as it was a cracking club, large, snooker tables plus had men only outings such as the 'Morning drive' (I'd be surprised if any RUKF member knows what one is).
-----
Back on to the GE, a friend of mine who is in a respected professional, is calling it a hung parliament, so much so they have betted on it. I pointed out that my GE predictions have beaten theirs for about the last 4 GE's. TBH, really can't see a hung parliament.

 

[takno]

My late father was a member of the local Conservative club but he told me that I shouldn't conclude that he always voted Conservative.

I'd be surprised if even half the members of local conservative and labour clubs voted for their respective parties at elections. It's just a reasonably-priced social club near their house.

I do think that Liz Truss isn’t “all there” and has some kind of mental deficiency or illness, which is probably unfair of me but I can’t work her out at all, whereas at least the others I mentioned I understand in some ways.

She strikes me as somebody quite dim who was coached significantly beyond her own natural abilities by her academic parents. Ironically she seems to have left the Lib Dems at about the time they were starting to be taken over by just her sort of Orange-Book nutcases, to join a Tory Party where there has always been a significant undercurrent of radical economic extremists.

In most decades she would just have bumbled along achieving nothing except for making Bill Cash and Liam Fox look sane and competent. She was just unlucky to have been the least interesting entrant into that leadership contest, which saw a slate of exclusively incompetent misfits contend for the votes of an increasingly mad and rapidly dying party membership.

It's cruel really that the press drag her out every so often, so we can all be distracted from the current government's failings to watch the mad Liz sideshow. If people did the same thing to her on social media they would be rightly castigated as bullies. It may be for the best if the Conservative vote in her constituency gets split by the independent, and she can move on from the Westminster bubble, as the Westminster bubble seems to have moved on from her.

 

[birchesgreen]

It's cruel really that the press drag her out every so often, so we can all be distracted from the current government's failings to watch the mad Liz sideshow. If people did the same thing to her on social media they would be rightly castigated as bullies. It may be for the best if the Conservative vote in her constituency gets split by the independent, and she can move on from the Westminster bubble, as the Westminster bubble seems to have moved on from her.

Its best for her if she gets out of politics full stop, she is getting dragged deeper into the trans-atlantic neo con nonsense.

 

[SynthD]

Day after day we hear pointless announcements of what each party tells the electorate it will do if elected, few of which are likely to materialise. Yesterday Mr Sunak was shown on the news watering a garden or an allotment. Yet two days earlier he could not even manage to spend an entire day at the D-Day commemorations, so obsessed was he with his ridiculous campaign. A few days earlier Mr Davey was seen falling off a paddleboard. Just what do they think these antics add to their campaigns?

The three major campaigns are wildly different, to the point of not fitting in this group you make. Sunak is making error after ‘vote purchasing policy he won’t implement’ after error. Starmer is staying on message, boring as it may be. Davey is seeking attention by planning viral events.

I do wish that they’d each campaign with higher intentions but that’s not the media driven world we live in. Leveson part 2 is the first step to improving that.

 

[dangie]

It's maybe a sad reflection on the state of society, but there are an alarming number of people who pay zero attention to politics outside of election season.

Not so sure about that. Along with religion, politics and politicians have caused more arguments, misery, death and destruction than any illness or disease. I can see why many shy away from it.

 

[Busaholic]

Not so sure about that. Along with religion, politics and politicians have caused more arguments, misery, death and destruction than any illness or disease. I can see why many shy away from it.

Can't wait for Pauline Vennells to announce she's going into politics then, now the plan to make her Bishop of London seems to have gone awry.

 

[MotCO]

party representatives standing behind lecterns as if participating in an edition of "Fifteen to One" or "The Weakest Link".

That would be an interesting way of selecting a Government!

 

[nw1]

I'm not normally someone to defend Sunak but now I see that Farage is coming out with a comment that is, well, certainly well below the belt. (In fact, I'd probably use another word to describe it but won't, here at least).

Nigel Farage has defended his claim that Rishi Sunak demonstrated he did not understand "our culture" by leaving D-Day commemorations early.

Nigel Farage defends claim Sunak 'doesn't understand our culture'

Reform leader says by leaving D-Day event early Rishi Sunak showed he is "disconnected by privilege".

www.bbc.co.uk

Much as I dislike the current Conservatives and all they stand for, people like Farage are far worse.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

On the topic of clubs, although I used to vote conservative many moons ago, I joined a working mans club that was mostly Labour. Good low cost beer, snooker tables and company. The atmosphere was Smokey but in fairness in those days I used to smoke too.

 

[londonteacher]

French elections incoming also.

 

[nw1]

There are a few "outlier" seats in the election, I think, where we might get atypical results.

Firstly, Ashfield. What do people think will happen here? I think that this is the most likely seat for Reform to gain, more even than Clacton, due to Anderson being the incumbent. It seems to be a deeply socially-conservative locale with a 70% Brexit vote in the referendum, for example. The "Ashfield Independents" are also challenging and did well last time but their candidate seems to have a few controversies and is awaiting trial for various criminal offences:

Jason Zadrozny: Council leader faces trial outside Nottinghamshire

Ashfield District Council Jason Zadrozny has pleaded not guilty to a series of allegations.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Tory candidate is an unknown and has little chance of winning, I suspect.

Sadly I think it'll be Anderson though it's possible the right-wing, pro-Brexit vote could be split between Anderson, the Independents and the Tories and Labour get in.

Secondly, Portsmouth North, Mordaunt seems to be unafraid to criticise Sunak's actions over D-Day and could well maintain local support; so I suspect she might hold the seat, albeit narrowly.

Thirdly, Chingford and Woodford Green. I think Labour have made a tactical error here in blocking Faiza Shaheen from standing on rather spurious grounds. She almost won last time and I suspect would have easily won this time. Instead, they got someone else in and she is now standing as an independent. This could well split the left vote and, in a divergence from the national trend, Duncan Smith may well hold the seat.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jun 2024 ==

French elections incoming also.

Started another thread on the emerging deeply concerning picture from the EU elections:

EU elections and related matters (e.g. France)

Thought I'd set up a thread for this rather than clog up the UK election thread. French elections incoming also. Seems to be parliamentary and not presidential, so Macron will presumably remain president until his term expires. Even still, if the National Front win the most seats in the...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[MotCO]

There are a few "outlier" seats in the election, I think, where we might get atypical results.

Firstly, Ashfield. What do people think will happen here? I think that this is the most likely seat for Reform to gain, more even than Clacton, due to Anderson being the incumbent. It seems to be a deeply socially-conservative locale with a 70% Brexit vote in the referendum, for example. The "Ashfield Independents" are also challenging and did well last time but their candidate seems to have a few controversies and is awaiting trial for various criminal offences:

Jason Zadrozny: Council leader faces trial outside Nottinghamshire

Ashfield District Council Jason Zadrozny has pleaded not guilty to a series of allegations.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Tory candidate is an unknown and has little chance of winning, I suspect.

The Tories don't have a chance here. Sadly I think it'll be Anderson though it's possible the right-wing, pro-Brexit vote could be split between Anderson, the Independents and the Tories and Labour get in.

Secondly, Portsmouth North, Mordaunt seems to be unafraid to criticise Sunak's actions over D-Day and could well maintain local support; so I suspect she might hold the seat, albeit narrowly.

Thirdly, Chingford and Woodford Green. I think Labour have made a tactical error here in blocking Faiza Shaheen from standing on rather spurious grounds. She almost won last time and I suspect would have easily won this time. Instead, they got someone else in and she is now standing as an independent. This could well split the left vote and, in a divergence from the national trend, Duncan Smith may well hold the seat.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jun 2024 ==

Rotherham could be interesting with no Tory candidate - could Reform overturn a 3,000 Labour majority? It has a 10% Muslim population who may not favour Labour's approach to Gaza.

 

[birchesgreen]

Rotherham could be interesting with no Tory candidate - could Reform overturn a 3,000 Labour majority? It has a 10% Muslim population who may not favour Labour's approach to Gaza.

Though Labour are apparently going to push for Palestine to be recognised as a state which will help, we'll see exactly how and when though.

 

[mwmbwls]

Central Bedfordshire has not changed hands for 47 years.....just saying. What is the most un-marginal seat in the United Kingdom?

 

[nw1]

Central Bedfordshire has not changed hands for 47 years.....just saying. What is the most un-marginal seat in the United Kingdom?

Isn't it supposed to be this one, and its predecessors? Huge Con majorities every time, even in 1997. That said, in 2019 it bucked the trend and swung away from the Tories a little.

Arundel and South Downs - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[brad465]

Few people take any notice of election campaigns (certainly not enough to sway their vote). I propose there should be a period of genuine "purdah" which would begin as soon as the election date is announced. A couple of weeks after that date there would be a brief slot of about three days where parties could publicise their manifestos. And that's it. No falling off paddleboards; no watering gardens; no touring biscuit factories in hard hats, hampering the vital business of Hobnob production; certainly no televised presidential style "debates" with party representatives standing behind lecterns as if participating in an edition of "Fifteen to One" or "The Weakest Link".

Information that politicians want he public to have access to can be published on the web and provided as hard copies in local libraries, council offices and Post Offices. That way, people who are interested enough can find it for themselves whilst the rest of us can remain unmolested.

20+ years ago this might have been a good idea, but not today. Social media would render this completely ineffective, and that's before we get onto the fact some very manipulative hostile state actors won't obey such terms.

 

[najaB]

I'm not normally someone to defend Sunak but now I see that Farage is coming out with a comment that is, well, certainly well below the belt. (In fact, I'd probably use another word to describe it but won't, here at least).

Much as I dislike the current Conservatives and all they stand for, people like Farage are far worse.

Totally on-brand for Farage.

 

[Gloster]

Central Bedfordshire has not changed hands for 47 years.....just saying. What is the most un-marginal seat in the United Kingdom?

I think that East Devon has been held continuously by the Conservatives since 1835, though they have changed MP once or twice. The largest percentage of the vote (of valid vote count) in 2019 was Liverpool Walton (74.8%), while the largest actual majority was Knowsley (39,942); both were Labour.

Source: Uk Parliament, Election results.

 

[3141]

I'm not normally someone to defend Sunak but now I see that Farage is coming out with a comment that is, well, certainly well below the belt. (In fact, I'd probably use another word to describe it but won't, here at least).

Nigel Farage defends claim Sunak 'doesn't understand our culture'

Reform leader says by leaving D-Day event early Rishi Sunak showed he is "disconnected by privilege".

www.bbc.co.uk

Much as I dislike the current Conservatives and all they stand for, people like Farage are far worse.

Farage will of course try to squeeze everything he possibly can out of Sunak's early departure from the D-Day celebrations.

Would a Prime Minister whose family had lived in Britain throughout World War 2 have done that? We can't say, but it seems to me less likely. What if our current PM had been the son of white immigrants from Europe, and how would Farage have reacted in that case?

I think it was a most unfortunate misjudgement to leave early, and it's given Farage and people like him the sort of ammunition they wanted. But the fact that such a misjudgement occurred does make it possible that Farage's interpretation contains some truth.

 

[najaB]

But the fact that such a misjudgement occurred does make it possible that Farage's interpretation contains some truth.

It's much more likely that Sunak is just really bad a politics and doesn't have a well-developed sense of empathy.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

True, thank you, I’d forgotten that fact!
EDIT I do think that Liz Truss isn’t “all there” and has some kind of mental deficiency or illness, which is probably unfair of me but I can’t work her out at all, whereas at least the others I mentioned I understand in some ways.

I don't think it's very fair at all to speculate on Liz Truss's mental capacity. Or is it okay because she's on the "wrong" team?

I'd sooner vote for a party led by Truss than the "global citizen" Sunak, or the political chameleon Starmer.

 

[DerekC]

I'd sooner vote for a party led by Truss than the "global citizen" Sunak, or the political chameleon Starmer.

Well, I am very glad you won't have the opportunity.

 

[brad465]

I don't think it's very fair at all to speculate on Liz Truss's mental capacity. Or is it okay because she's on the "wrong" team?

I'd sooner vote for a party led by Truss than the "global citizen" Sunak, or the political chameleon Starmer.

I agree one shouldn't go down the road of judging mental health/ability unless one is a professional in that field. I would say Truss isn't insane, but "believes" in what gets her the biggest benefits. However, she is arguably the biggest reason the Tories are widely predicted to be thrashed in this election, so if I was you, or anyone else sympathetic to the Tories, I would not be defending her an iota.