UK General Election 2024

[WesternLancer]

Both of my parents were party members, so I grew up seeing the party electoral machine from the inside. On polling day I was a small and not very willing cog in that machine.

Back then politics was much simpler than it is now:

• nearly everyone voted for the 2 major parties
• support was mostly tribal, floating voters were a small minority
• nearly everyone voted in person, postal votes were hard to get

The prime purpose of canvassing was to identify support, especially new names on the electoral roll. It was a means to an end, which was to get the identified supporters to vote on polling day.

Those who have voted in person will probably be familiar with party "tellers" asking for their polling card number, as they enter or leave the polling station. This enables the party machine to identify which of their identified supporters have already voted, by crossing them off an annotated copy of the electoral roll. By teatime, it also gave the party machine a good indication of whether they were winning or losing. In the evening "knocking up" would take place, reminding identified supporters yet to vote to get to the polling station, taking them by car if necessary. A well oiled party machine concentrated its "knocking up" resources where the contest was thought to be close, ignoring constituencies where the result was regarded as a foregone conclusion.

Since then electoral politics has got a lot more complicated: more parties, more floating voters and more postal votes. I have steered clear of party politics as an adult, so I don't know the extent to which the party electoral machines still operate. But I have been involved in other voluntary activity, where the volunteers are usually much more concerned with the process than the outcome. I suspect that a lot of this activity is because it is what volunteers like to do, not because it has a significant impact on the result.

A very good post. The process I have seen in recent years clearly has its routes in what you describe, and in many respects not far developed from it, albeit with modifications related to modern IT. Ie no need to hand write your supporters names and addresses on sheets of paper the day before the election as your smart phone can provide that now…

 

[nw1]

And I am sure you agree that a change in policy was needed urgently after the chaos of Johnson/Truss? Or would you have preferred to put the government into a state of impasse and ask the world markets to be nice to us until we got around to a general election? Sometimes policies have to be changed as a result of ongoing situations, we can't have an election every time this might come along.

I think what many of us would have liked was a 2022 General Election to follow the appointment of Truss as Tory leader, to see if we, as an electorate, actually wanted her.

(For balance I will also say that a 2007 GE following the appointment of Gordon Brown would have been the fairest response).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Those who have voted in person will probably be familiar with party "tellers" asking for their polling card number, as they enter or leave the polling station. This enables the party machine to identify which of their identified supporters have already voted, by crossing them off an annotated copy of the electoral roll. By teatime, it also gave the party machine a good indication of whether they were winning or losing. In the evening "knocking up" would take place, reminding identified supporters yet to vote to get to the polling station, taking them by car if necessary. A well oiled party machine concentrated its "knocking up" resources where the contest was thought to be close, ignoring constituencies where the result was regarded as a foregone conclusion.

Since then electoral politics has got a lot more complicated: more parties, more floating voters and more postal votes. I have steered clear of party politics as an adult, so I don't know the extent to which the party electoral machines still operate. But I have been involved in other voluntary activity, where the volunteers are usually much more concerned with the process than the outcome. I suspect that a lot of this activity is because it is what volunteers like to do, not because it has a significant impact on the result.

I've been separately politically active in the early 80s and recently, and I'd say it's stayed pretty much the same in principle, other than paper canvassing sheets having been somewhat replaced by smartphone apps. However it's less extensive because parties have fewer volunteers these days. And I would say telling in particular is becoming harder/less common - and voters don't generally understand 'telling' any more and tend to react much more negatively to it - so I wouldn't be too surprised if that practice eventually dies out, and parties resort to just using canvas lists to knock up. Back in the 80s it was common for a polling station even in safe seats to have a teller from each of the parties, all cooperating to get numbers - that's something I've almost never seen in the last few elections: There just aren't enough volunteers to do it.

The other thing that's changed is that today there's often a separate round of knocking up a few days before the deadline for postal votes, where activists knock on doors of supporters registered for postal votes to remind them to send off their votes.

 

[najaB]

I think what many of us would have liked was a 2022 General Election to follow the appointment of Truss as Tory leader, to see if we, as an electorate, actually wanted her.

More specifically, her policies rather than her as a person.

 

[MotCO]

In the evening "knocking up" would take place, reminding identified supporters yet to vote to get to the polling station, taking them by car if necessary.

My late mother recalled that many, many years ago, she was taken to the Polling Station by a Conservative car, only to vote Labour!

 

[JonathanH]

Interesting that Alba only managed to stand 20. I was expecting them to put up at least half the Scottish constituencies

Is there really a point in splitting the nationalist vote? Alba should sit waiting for the Scottish Parliament elections, and then go for the regional vote under the additional member system.

 

[317 forever]

Election Maps UK has revealed the total number of candidates each party has declared. It confirms Reform UK never really formed any pact with the Tories, standing in 611 seats, while confirming the Tories managed to find candidates in all but 1 seat (Rotherham):

x.com

x.com

I think the 19 seats Labour are not contesting are the 18 Northern Ireland seats plus Chorley, being the Speaker's seat.

This may well be true for the Tories (plus Rotherham) and the LibDems too. I just wonder which other constituency the LibDems are lacking a candidate?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

This may well be true for the Tories (plus Rotherham) and the LibDems too. I just wonder which other constituency the LibDems are lacking a candidate?

Looks like it's the new seat of Manchester Rusholme where the LibDems do not have a candidate.

 

[renegademaster]

Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates has posted this article on the tax debate
https://taxpolicy.org.uk/2024/06/06/why-the-general-election-tax-debate-is-irrelevant/



It ends with:

It seems Biden/Federal reserve has seemingly squared that circle. Spend spend spend , but tolerate high inflation rather than raising taxes. Has it's winners and loosers and may very well bring Trump back, but America has managed to avoid the depression much of Europe has fell into.

 

[brad465]

It seems Biden/Federal reserve has seemingly squared that circle. Spend spend spend , but tolerate high inflation rather than raising taxes. Has it's winners and loosers and may very well bring Trump back, but America has managed to avoid the depression much of Europe has fell into.

Having the world's reserve currency brings a lot of privileges that the rest of the world do not get, including the UK. Whoever is elected next month in the UK will not get away with anything like that.

 

[renegademaster]

Having the world's reserve currency brings a lot of privileges that the rest of the world do not get, including the UK. Whoever is elected next month in the UK will not get away with anything like that.

True, it would maybe work at an ECB level though

 

[Enthusiast]

So it should be illegal for politicians to get out and about and meet the electorate. Interesting take on democracy!

They can get out and about all they like. But they shouldn't annoy people by ringing their doorbells.

Canvassing is mainly about collecting data on who you may vote for

The UK has a voting system which involves a secret ballot. There's not much point in that if people are going to knock on your front door asking which way you will cast your vote. Not only do I not want anybody (especially politicians) to know who I might vote for, I don't even want them to know whether or not I might vote at all.

and what issues are resonating with voters.

I don't see any point in politicians being made aware of the issues that are resonating with voters a couple of weeks before a General Election. Their manifestos are set and they won't be altered as a result of what I might tell any of them on my doorstep. If they are worth their salt (and my vote) they should know what is troubling voters. Most of the time they do, but simply dismiss those issues for one reason or another until a GE, then suddenly promise to solve them.

 

[Magdalia]

It seems Biden/Federal reserve has seemingly squared that circle. Spend spend spend , but tolerate high inflation rather than raising taxes. Has it's winners and loosers and may very well bring Trump back, but America has managed to avoid the depression much of Europe has fell into.

Having the world's reserve currency brings a lot of privileges that the rest of the world do not get, including the UK. Whoever is elected next month in the UK will not get away with anything like that.

Furthermore, the USA is a much more closed economy than the UK or the EU, and is much more self-sufficient in fossil fuel and food.

 

[najaB]

They can get out and about all they like. But they shouldn't annoy people by ringing their doorbells.

If it bothers you that much, put up an "no cold callers" sign or similar. Oh wait, you already did and they haven't knocked at your door.

Remind me again what the problem is?

 

[BrianW]

I've been separately politically active in the early 80s and recently, and I'd say it's stayed pretty much the same in principle, other than paper canvassing sheets having been somewhat replaced by smartphone apps. However it's less extensive because parties have fewer volunteers these days. And I would say telling in particular is becoming harder/less common - and voters don't generally understand 'telling' any more and tend to react much more negatively to it - so I wouldn't be too surprised if that practice eventually dies out, and parties resort to just using canvas lists to knock up. Back in the 80s it was common for a polling station even in safe seats to have a teller from each of the parties, all cooperating to get numbers - that's something I've almost never seen in the last few elections: There just aren't enough volunteers to do it.

The other thing that's changed is that today there's often a separate round of knocking up a few days before the deadline for postal votes, where activists knock on doors of supporters registered for postal votes to remind them to send off their votes.

When involved in duties as an official polling clerk I was keen to let those attending to vote that they had absolutely no 'obligation' to tell 'tellers' anything, and to keep tellers and 'media' out of the Polling Station. Candidates and Police were always welcome. Polling cards were not required to be shown, only a positive affirmation of identity as the person named on the official copy of the Electoral Register, no ID requirement as there is today. Those D-day veterans fought to maintain our democracy. I hope to see a respectful turnout.

 

[WesternLancer]

The UK has a voting system which involves a secret ballot. There's not much point in that if people are going to knock on your front door asking which way you will cast your vote. Not only do I not want anybody (especially politicians) to know who I might vote for, I don't even want them to know whether or not I might vote at all.

Very much respect that but you may be interested to know that in my experience you are in a minority with that stance. I’d say about 70% of ppl or maybe more are very happy to tell you who they vote for and indeed how often they vote (which is a matter of record anyway as it is listed on what is called the ‘marked register’.

 

[Gloster]

A further small detail to the late change of candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (see #1,026 and #1,033). Ross will either now get elected as an MP or, if he loses the seat, get the £15,000 that a sitting MP receives if he loses a seat. Duguid, who had been selected for the new seat, will now get nothing. I sure that both gentlemen are so high-minded that such thoughts never crossed their minds.

 

[Snow1964]

Depending on which of the main news channels you watch/read and which poll they refer to seems that the Sunak D-day anniversary blunder has wiped out Conservations with one poll saying will win just 40 seats.

Whatever the final tally, (and I am guessing nearer 120 for Conservatives), it does rather move the emphasis onto how many seats will Labour and other parties get, and make up of opposition.

The biggest problem for Labour seems to be risk of low turnout, with many samples finding 20% definitely won't vote and upto 20% might not vote (lot more variability in this figure). However have come multiple sources that say in recent general elections turnout tends to be lower percentage in Labour constituencies than conservative ones.

Not sure what this means overall (along with the boundary changes), but my hunch is if some Labour voters think there will be a landslide and get complacent and don't vote, then if that happens there is bound to be some constituencies where someone else manages to sneak in.

 

[jfollows]

Depending on which of the main news channels you watch/read and which poll they refer to seems that the Sunak D-day anniversary blunder has wiped out Conservations with one poll saying will win just 40 seats.

Whatever the final tally, (and I am guessing nearer 120 for Conservatives), it does rather move the emphasis onto how many seats will Labour and other parties get, and make up of opposition.

The biggest problem for Labour seems to be risk of low turnout, with many samples finding 20% definitely won't vote and upto 20% might not vote (lot more variability in this figure). However have come multiple sources that say in recent general elections turnout tends to be lower percentage in Labour constituencies than conservative ones.

Not sure what this means overall (along with the boundary changes), but my hunch is if some Labour voters think there will be a landslide and get complacent and don't vote, then if that happens there is bound to be some constituencies where someone else manages to sneak in.

To me, the D-day blunder makes me feel that now Conservatives will get fewer than 100 seats; prior to this latest stupidity I thought 100 was lower than the number of seats they’d get, but now I think it’s more than the actual number will be. But that’s only a feeling, it’s only partly informed and mainly guesswork!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/08/rishi-sunaks-chances-were-always-slim-and-the-numbers-just-get-worse:

Two weeks in, the dial has shifted from likely defeat to looming disaster. An electoral asteroid is streaking through the British atmosphere. Impact in the Tory heartlands is just weeks away. Brace, brace.

 

[telstarbox]

I've been thinking for a while that the Tories are better resourced, backed by more of the media and pretty tactical so that they would surely keep at least 100 seats on a bad day. Now even that is looking less likely.

 

[Bantamzen]

You know if the decision of voters comes down to a stupid blunder by the PM, it will be a depressing day for politics in this country, even more so than Brexit. The general election is not a popularity contest, it is the moment when the country has to decide who will ultimately lead this country for the next 5 years. We vote for the people who are to represent our own areas, and should therefore be concentrating on their policies & strategies.

 

[jfollows]

You know if the decision of voters comes down to a stupid blunder by the PM, it will be a depressing day for politics in this country, even more so than Brexit. The general election is not a popularity contest, it is the moment when the country has to decide who will ultimately lead this country for the next 5 years. We vote for the people who are to represent our own areas, and should therefore be concentrating on their policies & strategies.

A stupid blunder is one thing, but a deliberate and planned action which demonstrates a lack of empathy for and consideration of the significant part of the electorate they’re otherwise trying to bribe with campaign promises is a more major issue. It’s not about what Sunak did, but about what his actions represent and it’s deservedly leading to a further huge fall in support.

 

[SuspectUsual]

The UK has a voting system which involves a secret ballot. There's not much point in that if people are going to knock on your front door asking which way you will cast your vote. Not only do I not want anybody (especially politicians) to know who I might vote for, I don't even want them to know whether or not I might vote at all

Yes, but a conversation on the doorstep can also provide qualitative data, the why behind a decision to vote for candidate X or not vote for candidate Y, and from that there's an opportunity to aggregate the findings which may then influence future campaigning decisions etc

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jun 2024 ==

A stupid blunder is one thing, but a deliberate and planned action which demonstrates a lack of empathy for and consideration of the significant part of the electorate they’re otherwise trying to bribe with campaign promises is a more major issue. It’s not about what Sunak did, but about what his actions represent and it’s deservedly leading to a further huge fall in support.

Indeed. For me the really stunning part of this is that it was their plan for him not to attend any of the international events all along, before the election was even called. Nothing at all to do with the pressures of the election campaign and other commitments.

Its just horrible, petty, little Englander nonsense

 

[deltic]

You know if the decision of voters comes down to a stupid blunder by the PM, it will be a depressing day for politics in this country, even more so than Brexit. The general election is not a popularity contest, it is the moment when the country has to decide who will ultimately lead this country for the next 5 years. We vote for the people who are to represent our own areas, and should therefore be concentrating on their policies & strategies.

While I agree with your sentiments I suggest that the majority of the electorate would struggle to list half a dozen of the main parties' policies. People vote on sentiment and how they feel they are doing economically. Just like Labour got hammered as a result of a global financial crisis that had nothing to do with them in 2010 so the Conservatives are being hammered by a cost of living crisis that was again the result of external forces

 

[52290]

My late mother recalled that many, many years ago, she was taken to the Polling Station by a Conservative car, only to vote Labour!

My late father was a member of the local Conservative club but he told me that I shouldn't conclude that he always voted Conservative.

 

[dgl]

My late father was a member of the local Conservative club but he told me that I shouldn't conclude that he always voted Conservative.

My Uncle was the same, liked the free parking in the town and should have been a typical Tory voter but didn't necessarily always vote for them.

 

[najaB]

You know if the decision of voters comes down to a stupid blunder by the PM, it will be a depressing day for politics in this country, even more so than Brexit. The general election is not a popularity contest, it is the moment when the country has to decide who will ultimately lead this country for the next 5 years.

Much like the saying "It's not the crime, it's the cover-up", the fact that ministers are being trotted out to try and defend/excuse the snub shows that none of them are fit to lead the country. I get tired of hearing "a mistake was made, but.."

As far as I'm concerned, the only mistake was thinking the snake wasn't going to bite this time.

 

[Whistler40145]

Much like the saying "It's not the crime, it's the cover-up", the fact that ministers are being trotted out to try and defend/excuse the snub shows that none of them are fit to lead the country. I get tired of hearing "a mistake was made, but.."

As far as I'm concerned, the only mistake was thinking the snake wasn't going to bite this time.

It's been a series of blunders

 

[Gloster]

Much like the saying "It's not the crime, it's the cover-up", the fact that ministers are being trotted out to try and defend/excuse the snub shows that none of them are fit to lead the country. I get tired of hearing "a mistake was made, but.."

As far as I'm concerned, the only mistake was thinking the snake wasn't going to bite this time.

I didn’t see the latest debate, but it sounds as though Mordaunt got it right: you can’t defend this, so just admit it was an appalling error of judgement. The longer the Conservatives go on turning themselves inside out trying to justify or play down the error, the more it gains legs.

 

[Enthusiast]

You know if the decision of voters comes down to a stupid blunder by the PM, it will be a depressing day for politics in this country, even more so than Brexit. The general election is not a popularity contest, it is the moment when the country has to decide who will ultimately lead this country for the next 5 years. We vote for the people who are to represent our own areas, and should therefore be concentrating on their policies & strategies.

Indeed, which is been the thrust of my point throughout this thread.

General Election "campaigns" are infantile. Day after day we hear pointless announcements of what each party tells the electorate it will do if elected, few of which are likely to materialise. Yesterday Mr Sunak was shown on the news watering a garden or an allotment. Yet two days earlier he could not even manage to spend an entire day at the D-Day commemorations, so obsessed was he with his ridiculous campaign. A few days earlier Mr Davey was seen falling off a paddleboard. Just what do they think these antics add to their campaigns?

People vote on sentiment and how they feel they are doing economically.

Exactly.

Few people take any notice of election campaigns (certainly not enough to sway their vote). I propose there should be a period of genuine "purdah" which would begin as soon as the election date is announced. A couple of weeks after that date there would be a brief slot of about three days where parties could publicise their manifestos. And that's it. No falling off paddleboards; no watering gardens; no touring biscuit factories in hard hats, hampering the vital business of Hobnob production; certainly no televised presidential style "debates" with party representatives standing behind lecterns as if participating in an edition of "Fifteen to One" or "The Weakest Link".

Information that politicians want he public to have access to can be published on the web and provided as hard copies in local libraries, council offices and Post Offices. That way, people who are interested enough can find it for themselves whilst the rest of us can remain unmolested.