UK General Election 2024

[Bantamzen]

But it's also not positive. To start your election campaign so far behind and effectively end your term in office earlier than you need to is rather mad. Don't get me wrong, I think it's the right thing but if you were a Conservative MP you'd be utterly baffled by it.

Well if they know they are that far behind in the 2024 battle, it might actually make sense to simply call a sudden retreat and start to build for a new attack. I suspect the muted response to Starmer's 6 point plan has been at least in part a driver in this. Chuck Labour in the deep end before they are ready.

It might actually prove to be the best decision made by Tory HQ in a long time, at least for them.

 

[brad465]

Shouldn't he have been moved on by the police for disturbing the peace?

He revealed he's received an order banning him from the area, but not said for how long, only that it was worth it. As for why the police didn't move him on while it was going on, no idea.

 

[Trainguy34]

As someone who's just walked into this whole thing and doesn't really know whats going on, can anyone summarise this whole debacle?

 

[birchesgreen]

He revealed he's received an order banning him from the area, but not said for how long, only that it was worth it. As for why the police didn't move him on while it was going on, no idea.

Even Plod has a sense of humour sometimes.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Idiot.
Trying to think of something more profound, but no. What was Rishi thinking.
We're are going to have to endure the unendurable.
Having said that, Stammer, very cleverly, has said very little. But he hasn't a very high hurdle to being an improvement. My fear is all those who supported Corbyn are still there.

Corbyn's real problem was far more his personality than his policies. He simply lacked any leadership qualities and was too easily influenced by those who manoeuvred themselves close to him. But after more than 4 decades of public policy generally catering to the interests of businesses, particularly large ones, ahead of those of individual citizens who's to say that a touch of socialism isn't now needed to redress the balance somewhat. Media moguls will happily spread their warnings of doom about the consequences of such a shift but do ordinary people really have much to fear? I think that large numbers of people are more than ready for some real change. My fear is more that Starmer is just another Blair but with less incessant spin.

 

[JamesT]

I'd say around the 100-150 figure. Blair got 179 in 1997, but the SNP weren't so big then and there's not as much (although a fair bit) enthusiasm for Labour as there is against Conservatives which is what polls and surveys suggests too.

Bear in mind the starting positions. Major barely had a majority whereas Sunak still has most of the 80 won in 2019.
It may be the new normal to have rapid swings in popularity, but overturning such a majority would be unprecedented.
These will also be the first elections with the new boundaries, which are expected to provide a small boost to the Conservatives as they correct the demographic drift which usually favors Labour.

 

[12LDA28C]

As someone who's just walked into this whole thing and doesn't really know whats going on, can anyone summarise this whole debacle?

It's literally on every news channel and website right now. Turn on your TV.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Do you have a source for this?

x.com

x.com

 

[nw1]

Because they're a bunch of automatons who can't react to events

Is this weather system named? If not, how about "Storm Rishi", in honour?

 

[Busaholic]

Just a few random thoughts on this (to me) unsurprising news.

Small boat crossings are up again, and now we'll have Mrs Elphicke adopting a new tune blaming the Tories, which may or may not have an effect in Kent and East Sussex Tory-held seats;

Farage has been caught on the hop and rapidly has to decide whether to take charge of Reform which, in my view, would necessitate him standing for a seat, probably Clacton. Whether he wins it or not is immaterial, just standing would probably increase the Reform vote in England by as much as 50%, potentially from 12% to 18%. That, in turn, might see a further 60 or so Tory seats lost. Sunak is gambling on him being 'frit' or, more likely, wanting to keep his GB News payday but even the pathetic TV regulator might have to rein in his appearances there;

As things stand, Diane Abbott will not be the Labour candidate in her seat, but will surely contest it as an Independent and likely win. Jeremy Corbyn's position is different, and although he'll have a large personal vote it wouldn't surprise me if the official Labour candidate prevailed, depending on the turmout.

Galloway's mob might take a handful of seats, maybe even in London, though I think and fervently hope he'll lose Rochdale;

Previous SNP voters who dislike the new 'hate' laws there might not take too well to Starmer's latest position on gender identity, which may cost Labour votes and seats in Scotland:

Presumably Sir Jeffery Donaldson will not be standing, though nothing precludes it, and I'd think DUP representation next time will take a hit.

Lastly, was it a coincidence that Chris Heaton-Harris unexpectedly announced his imminent retirement' on Monday?....

 

[SuspectUsual]

There are around 150 seats that don't currently have a Tory candidate. They'll presumably parachute centrally-selected people in?

 

[Sorcerer]

Corbyn's real problem was far more his personality than his policies.

I somewhat disagree. I think Corbyn had some decent domestic policies, but other ones were quite reminiscent of a typical radical socialist attitude more focused on punishing the rich rather than actually uplifting the poor. For example, his desire to abolish private schools instead of improving state education. His foreign policy would've also been a total disaster with his anti-NATO stance and his outspoken criticism in arming Ukraine. Corbyn's pacifism, while possibly a valuable asset in seeking peace agreements, would've made Britain look weak to our enemies, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine made me glad he wasn't elected despite his good intentions.

 

[Gloster]

There are around 150 seats that don't currently have a Tory candidate. They'll presumably parachute centrally-selected people in?

The deadline for nominations is nineteen working days before the election. I think that it is still possible for local association to choose a candidate, who must be on the approved list, but it will be a rush. It will also be a rush for those hopefuls who have to whizz around the country attending interviews and brushing up on…where, the hell am I today? I think it does give the party managers a bit of leverage in pushing their favoured candidates down on constituencies that don’t get their act together. I think they only directly impose a candidate if the local party is infighting, inert or too grossly incompetent.

I did Google this and got as the first option a page that read ‘Page not found.’

 

[Mcr Warrior]

There are around 150 seats that don't currently have a Tory candidate. They'll presumably parachute centrally-selected people in?

Wonder how many of these candidates will end up being elected?

 

[Horizon22]

Bear in mind the starting positions. Major barely had a majority whereas Sunak still has most of the 80 won in 2019.
It may be the new normal to have rapid swings in popularity, but overturning such a majority would be unprecedented.
These will also be the first elections with the new boundaries, which are expected to provide a small boost to the Conservatives as they correct the demographic drift which usually favors Labour.

They've lost countless by-elections since then and the polls have been steady for 18 months. I've no doubt the polls will tighten before election day, but it's a terrible position to be in. That was very much a "Brexit" election, in very weird political circumstances. I'm very confident there will be a Labour major victory as are indeed any odds on the matter (about 1/10 currently!)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2024 ==

There are around 150 seats that don't currently have a Tory candidate. They'll presumably parachute centrally-selected people in?

Pretty sure Conservatives still have to be selected by local parties, even if that's a rubber stamping exercise.

 

[DarloRich]

Don't forget that since 2019 the biggest social media platform came into ownership of the unhinged Space Karen too.

Quite right. There will be all kinds of social media nonsense targeting the hard of thinking

 

[Gloster]

I don’t think anybody has yet mentioned the elephant in the room: a possible Conservative-Reform deal. If there was one, and I am sure that the Conservatives would offer just about anything for one, it could change the whole balance of the voting as the right/traditional/red wall (call it what you will) vote will mostly go to one party in each constituency and not be split. I don’t think it would give the Conservatives victory, but might well deny Labour an absolute majority or even, Dieu forbid, leave a Conservative/Reform/DUP coalition on the road to government as the largest grouping.

 

[43096]

I somewhat disagree. I think Corbyn had some decent domestic policies, but other ones were quite reminiscent of a typical radical socialist attitude more focused on punishing the rich rather than actually uplifting the poor. For example, his desire to abolish private schools instead of improving state education. His foreign policy would've also been a total disaster with his anti-NATO stance and his outspoken criticism in arming Ukraine. Corbyn's pacifism, while possibly a valuable asset in seeking peace agreements, would've made Britain look weak to our enemies, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine made me glad he wasn't elected despite his good intentions.

Corbyn is/was utterly, utterly unfit to lead the country. That he must have a sizeable filing cabinet with his name on it in MI5's archives is good enough reason for a start.

 

[dangie]

Quick question:
Granddaughter just turned 18. She has registered to vote.
Unfortunately she will be on holiday on 4th July.
Is it still time to register for a postal vote?
Thank you.

 

[jfollows]

Quick question:
Granddaughter just turned 18. She has registered to vote.
Unfortunately she will be on holiday on 4th July.
Is it still time to register for a postal vote?
Thank you.

Yes

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65f8659eefbfe40011e4dc4d/PO-E_PostalEngland2023_form_2024.pdf

5pm 11 days before poll is the deadline.

 

[Gloster]

Government website says that you can apply up 17.00 on the eleventh day before the election. With Royal Mail being what it is, I wouldn’t delay.

 

[3141]

But it's also not positive. To start your election campaign so far behind and effectively end your term in office earlier than you need to is rather mad. Don't get me wrong, I think it's the right thing but if you were a Conservative MP you'd be utterly baffled by it.

Well, I got this wrong in a recent post on the Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party thread. But perhaps he believes that things are going in right direction, and will continue to do so for the next six weeks, but probably not for long thereafter. In which case this might be the best time to call the election.

Alternatively, perhaps he knows that negotiations with Reform are almost at the point of agreeing an electoral pact with them. That would solve some of the problems about the number of constituencies which don't currently have a Conservative candidate.

But this is speculation. We'll see what actually happens, or doesn't, during the next few weeks.

I thought his speech in Downing Street was quite clever in making the best of a bad situation for the Conservatives. What made their situation seem even worse were reports on the BBC News website that some Conservatives were thinking of sending in letters of no confidence in response to the rumours that he was about to call an election. For anyone to be contemplating that at this stage shows how grossly disorganised the Conservatives are.

 

[DarloRich]

Government website says that you can apply up 17.00 on the eleventh day before the election. With Royal Mail being what it is, I wouldn’t delay.

I had to apply for a postal vote at short notice for the locals and the papers were with me inside 72 hours

 

[Horizon22]

Well, I got this wrong in a recent post on the Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party thread. But perhaps he believes that things are going in right direction, and will continue to do so for the next six weeks, but probably not for long thereafter. In which case this might be the best time to call the election.

Alternatively, perhaps he knows that negotiations with Reform are almost at the point of agreeing an electoral pact with them. That would solve some of the problems about the number of constituencies which don't currently have a Conservative candidate.

But this is speculation. We'll see what actually happens, or doesn't, during the next few weeks.

I thought his speech in Downing Street was quite clever in making the best of a bad situation for the Conservatives. What made their situation seem even worse were reports on the BBC News website that some Conservatives were thinking of sending in letters of no confidence in response to the rumours that he was about to call an election. For anyone to be contemplating that at this stage shows how grossly disorganised the Conservatives are.

Reform were remarkably anti any sort of deal - I saw a clip of Tice completely ruling it out on local elections coverage. That being said, I wouldn't trust them not to renege on such a promise...

Even if they did, the base Conservative vote would probably still be low enough for a Labour victory.

 

[brad465]

I don’t think anybody has yet mentioned the elephant in the room: a possible Conservative-Reform deal. If there was one, and I am sure that the Conservatives would offer just about anything for one, it could change the whole balance of the voting as the right/traditional/red wall (call it what you will) vote will mostly go to one party in each constituency and not be split. I don’t think it would give the Conservatives victory, but might well deny Labour an absolute majority or even, Dieu forbid, leave a Conservative/Reform/DUP coalition on the road to government as the largest grouping.

That assumes all the Reform votes would vote Tory if Reform doesn't stand, when in reality there are some who would just vote for other parties or not vote at all instead. However I do think Reform will actually want some sort of deal, simply because they will struggle to find enough candidates to stand everywhere even if they want to.

Elsewhere talk of a plot to actually try and depose Sunak and abort the election; I doubt it would succeed, but even if it did it's so chaotic that the eventual election result will be even worse for the Tories:

x.com

x.com

Wow! Extraordinary but true - some furious Conservative MPs are tonight working on a plot to CALL OFF the general election by replacing Rishi Sunak as leader before Parliament is dissolved next Thursday. One rebel Tory MP tells me he believes “several” more letters of no confidence in Sunak have been submitted to 1922 chairman Sir Graham Brady. The senior Conservative MP told me: “Today has clearly been an absolute disaster but the election is NOT irrevocable; up until the point of the Dissolution of Parliament - when the writs are moved to begin the contests, it can still be aborted. “In other words, if enough Tory MPs, who are clearly going to lose their seats in this already utterly shambolic campaign, write to Sir Graham Brady, tomorrow , the election could still be revoked.”

 

[dangie]

Government website says that you can apply up 17.00 on the eleventh day before the election. With Royal Mail being what it is, I wouldn’t delay.

For those who replied, thank you

 

[najaB]

Elsewhere talk of a plot to actually try and depose Sunak and abort the election; I doubt it would succeed, but even if it did it's so chaotic that the eventual election result will be even worse for the Tories

I'd say there's near-zero chance of this working. Why would the King agree to it, having already agreed to holding the election?

 

[SuspectUsual]

I'd say there's near-zero chance of this working. Why would the King agree to it, having already agreed to holding the election?

Exactly

And it would also need the 1922 to mobilise the vote quicker than ever before

Just can’t see it happening

 

[Blindtraveler]

I had to apply for a postal vote at short notice for the locals and the papers were with me inside 72 hours

Would never happen if you lived in Medway. Any postal vote I might have wanted to send off would probably have had to go in the next 2 or 3 days to actually guarantee being counted, I voted by post for the police and crime commissioner but that was because I already knew what I was doing and was able to get it off super early
I have voted by post in both Scottish and English elections in the past but have never entirely felt great about doing it as never entirely sure with these things. How I'm going to cast my vote

This time round will also be very interesting for me. As for the first time in quite a few years, I will not be either tactical voting to keep out the SNP for my constituency and therefore my life at pretty much any cost or working extra hard to keep a particularly good local, MP or MSP in again, regardless of pretty much anything else
My current conservative MP Tracy crouch is going and we've known this for a while and it's to be believed from her newsletter that they had not quite selected a candidate to replace her. However, this is due soon, one or two other parties locally have already got their houses in order and have been doing a little bit of soft low-level campaigning in advance, whereas others appear totally disorganised and I'm sure this situation is the same or indeed possibly worse in quite a few other places where candidates are stepping down or indeed other parties simply haven't got their act together

The one thing I shouldn't be doing under any circumstance is voting labour. I have done so in the past and I would do so again if they were offering me something that I wanted. Which currently they are not both in terms of the leader and members of the Shadow cabinet who looks set to gain the keys to Westminster and all. It's dark, dirty secrets and also because I just don't see any clear direction from them at this stage. Other than a selection of much talked up and somewhat unfunded policies, many of which just don't sit particularly well with me at this stage. My natural place is liberal democrat but have heard little from them locally just yet and hope this changes as I now can't see myself voting conservative which had Tracy crouch been staying I would have done as in the 14 months I've lived here. She's actually been a very good, local, MP and highly responsive when contacted and proactive her casework
Either way, I'll be looking primarily for someone that's going to do a good job locally to me and tackle the issues that are important to me and would hope that as far as the bigger picture is concerned that we either get a coalition of some sort or at least as a starter for 10 a hung parliament and therefore a possible opportunity to set up something that might work well for all sides
Oh and as a little side, order electoral annihilation for the SNP north of the border would suit me just fine

 

[Busaholic]

Elsewhere talk of a plot to actually try and depose Sunak and abort the election; I doubt it would succeed, but even if it did it's so chaotic that the eventual election result will be even worse for the Tories:

This sounds like the sort of rubbish that Rees-Mogg might come up with in his self-declared role of constitutional expert, which he is far from, though he might have convinced Mad Nad or the even more delusional Truss. ''And when would you care to have the General Election called, Sir Jacob? Would a date in 2030 suit, at your convenience of course?.'' Can't wait for the early morning of July 5th to see his comeuppance.