UK General Election 2024

[1D54]

The argument for it is it will send a message to the new government, but calling a strike as soon as a new government is formed would make more sense.

I get that and totally agree but i doubt the railways will be very high on the list of priorities for Starmer but then again i suppose he's going to want to do something as walk outs after walk outs will not look great for him.

 

[dk1]

Both

Parliament is to be dissolved on 30th May so what is the point in calling more strikes costing members more money. Sit it out for a few weeks and see what happens with the incoming new government.

I have been told that it won’t affect the ASLEF negotiations and that a deal has almost been done which is great news if it’s true. Same goes for Junior Doctors who this government also said they wished to suddenly find an agreement with.

I would expect any action taken during the campaign would be seen as undermining the conservative government.

 

[Welly]

I thought of the perfect song for this news but I don't think it is fit for this forum.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Didn't see a July 4th poll coming though.

Me neither! Wow.

The slightest chunk of light in the economic figures and apparently that's reason enough..

It is probably the only bit of "good news" so partially understandable.

 

[Horizon22]

This is going to be a hilarious own goal.

The Tories are so far behind in the polls and a tiny bit of decent (not great) economic news isn't going to make a major difference to that. To be fair though, 6 months probably wouldn't either. Opposition parties had been planning for May for a General Election so just shunting it forward a few weeks won't mean they're unprepared. Even the announcement had a whiff of desperation around it looking totally unprepared in the rain. Even Stamer had an indoor podium and flags and looked almost statemanslike. Lib Dems and Greens will probably be happy, although SNP definitely won't.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Can anyone explain the rational logic behind this decision?

See below.

Try and lose as few seats as possible.

That does make sense.

 

[sor]

honestly surprised they didn't wait for a plane to rwanda to take off (which makes their obsession with giving the rwandan government literally everything they wanted, and more, even stranger)

 

[reddragon]

Here are some of my thoughts on why he called a July election:-

• Many students will have finished and gone back home, but he registered vote in a different city - this might catch these students out and it will hurt the labour vote
• I don't think any flights to Ruanda will be happening soon, and the longer the flights don't happen the more the client media will start asking questions. If Labour get in power in July they can blame the failure and money wasted on the scheme on Labour.
• The cost of living will only get worse the more we head into winter (e.g energy bills etc)
• The Brexit checks, people might start to notice a lack of fresh produce in the supermarkets as they are being held up for checks in Kent.
• The introduction of EES in October, I can vision scenes of chaos in October half term as the system is introduced. Again get out now and blame Labour.
• Better feel good factor in the summer, people might forget the doom and gloom of the past 14 years if they head out voting on a hot sunny day.
• It would be harder to get Tory canvassers out in the deep of winter considering they tend to be older members of society.

I wish I could feel very positive, but I know the gap will close

To add the collapse of the Water Industry on June 16th when OFWAT say no!

 

[Gloster]

Frankly, looking like a drowned rat when making the announcement is a lousy way to start your campaign. It may end up being the image that defines the election.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Frankly, looking like a drowned rat when making the announcement is a lousy way to start your campaign. It may end up being the image that defines the election.

Exactly my thought. I was tempted to to sing I am the walrus- "You get your tan from standing in the English Rain. I am the eggman, I am the Walrus ...!!!"

 

[Railsigns]

I thought of the perfect song for this news but I don't think it is fit for this forum.

"Fool in the Rain" by Led Zeppelin.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Without getting too much into speculative territory, any guesses on the size of the overall majority for Labour? My guess is it has to be >100

 

[SuspectUsual]

Frankly, looking like a drowned rat when making the announcement is a lousy way to start your campaign. It may end up being the image that defines the election.

I just hope his trousers didn't shrink any more

 

[DarloRich]

@TheSmiths82

He called a July election because he has given up. You could see It in his body language.

The polls will narrow as the Tory media fight like mad to get thier boys back into power but 20 points is a lot to claw back

There will be a lot of dirty media tricks and lies in the next few weeks

 

[aavm]

Idiot.
Trying to think of something more profound, but no. What was Rishi thinking.
We're are going to have to endure the unendurable.
Having said that, Stammer, very cleverly, has said very little. But he hasn't a very high hurdle to being an improvement. My fear is all those who supported Corbyn are still there.

 

[brad465]

honestly surprised they didn't wait for a plane to rwanda to take off (which makes their obsession with giving the rwandan government literally everything they wanted, and more, even stranger)

I've seen suggestions he may have heard that getting a plane to take off before the summer isn't going to be possible now, so he's given up on it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2024 ==

@TheSmiths82

He called a July election because he has given up. You could see It in his body language.

The polls will narrow as the Tory media fight like mad to get thier boys back into power but 20 points is a lot to claw back

There will be a lot of dirty media tricks and lies in the next few weeks

Don't forget that since 2019 the biggest social media platform came into ownership of the unhinged Space Karen too.

 

[Horizon22]

Without getting too much into speculative territory, any guesses on the size of the overall majority for Labour? My guess is it has to be >100

I'd say around the 100-150 figure. Blair got 179 in 1997, but the SNP weren't so big then and there's not as much (although a fair bit) enthusiasm for Labour as there is against Conservatives which is what polls and surveys suggests too.

 

[jon0844]

I'm sure that Rishi will be calling in a favour from Elon to help boost the anti Labour sentiment.

 

[dgl]

At least he's done it on a Wednesday so that HIGNFY and Dead Ringers can get on the case! Hate it when HIGNFY don't get a story because it's happened after the filming.

 

[TheSmiths82]

At least he's done it on a Wednesday so that HIGNFY and Dead Ringers can get on the case! Hate it when HIGNFY don't get a story because it's happened after the filming.

I am not sure when it is filmed, but I suspect it may have already been filmed if it is being broadcasted tomorrow night

 

[dgl]

I am not sure when it is filmed, but I suspect it may have already been filmed if it is being broadcasted tomorrow night

Friday night for HIGNFY but filmed Thursday iirc.

 

[sor]

the tory campaign is already off to a great start - Sky News were quite literally manhandled out of this so called campaign launch event at the ExCeL. On camera, so clips will be on social media shortly no doubt.

Looks like they're in some kind of syndicate/side room, very cramped.

 

[Bantamzen]

This is going to be a hilarious own goal.

The Tories are so far behind in the polls and a tiny bit of decent (not great) economic news isn't going to make a major difference to that. To be fair though, 6 months probably wouldn't either. Opposition parties had been planning for May for a General Election so just shunting it forward a few weeks won't mean they're unprepared. Even the announcement had a whiff of desperation around it looking totally unprepared in the rain. Even Stamer had an indoor podium and flags and looked almost statemanslike. Lib Dems and Greens will probably be happy, although SNP definitely won't.

Not really, the Tories know the game is up so it's hardly an own goal. Maybe they think Labour hasn't really settled on firm policies save a few vague concepts, so perhaps want to catch Labour on the hop and have them panic policy as they get into power. That would then give the Tories the perfect start in opposition to start slagging the government benches, possibly lighting the fires under their feet before they've even moved their stuff into Nos 10 & 11.

 

[hwl]

Perhaps the next inflation figures will be higher.

Yes energy down ~27% rest of non energy inflation up at ~6%, overall inflation rate 2.3%.

The rate of energy price falls have peaked so future inflation numbers won't be going down.

 

[TheSmiths82]

Yes energy down ~27% rest of non energy inflation up at ~6%, overall inflation rate 2.3%.

The rate of energy price falls have peaked so future inflation numbers won't be going down.

I suspect the new Brexit checks won't help either when half the freshly imported produce is rotting away in Kents awaiting checks.

 

[MotCO]

That'll be Steve Bray, the protestor well known for playing music in the background of interviews in Westminster.

Shouldn't he have been moved on by the police for disturbing the peace?

 

[hwl]

An election now would scupper the Derby saving order wouldn't it? Purdah and all that... as well as a potential likely change of government.

And avoids the current government having to fund lots of other big bills that are about to come in:

Non rail short term before the end of the summer (incomplete list - just few quick 9/10 digit £ items only) :

• Post office compensation
• Blood contamination compensation
• Thames Water partial nationalisation
• next Stage of Sizewell C funding contribution
• Wylfa partner choices (effectively has a funding commitment)
• MOD firm vehicle order

Rail

• Derby (if it hasn't already closed after an election)
• SWR 701 training
• Three sets of extra rolling stock leasing costs
• Euston tunnelling
• Lots of other things DfT has been consulting on to avoid making decisions (road and rail)...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2024 ==

I suspect the new Brexit checks won't help either when half the freshly imported produce is rotting away in Kent awaiting checks.

Yep and that is going to hit inflation pretty quickly.

There are tsumanis of bad news items going to hit before a potential Autumn or Winter election date hence July was the least worst remaining option.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 May 2024 ==

Also - the Tories may be expecting some economic bad new in about September or October.......

Stuff will start hitting mid July onwards

 

[AM9]

Shouldn't he have been moved on by the police for disturbing the peace?

Not at all, that choice of theme tune made the piece.

 

[Horizon22]

Not really, the Tories know the game is up so it's hardly an own goal. Maybe they think Labour hasn't really settled on firm policies save a few vague concepts, so perhaps want to catch Labour on the hop and have them panic policy as they get into power. That would then give the Tories the perfect start in opposition to start slagging the government benches, possibly lighting the fires under their feet before they've even moved their stuff into Nos 10 & 11.

But it's also not positive. To start your election campaign so far behind and effectively end your term in office earlier than you need to is rather mad. Don't get me wrong, I think it's the right thing but if you were a Conservative MP you'd be utterly baffled by it.

 

[Trackman]

I wonder if the bookies will pay out early for the conservatives not winning an overall majority, happened before, cant remember which year. Gordon Brown?