The 'Stop Hs2' campaign's dirty tricks.

[SS4]

As far as I can see, this is all about capacity. I presume stop hs2 would complain if the great central was re opened instead.

HS2 is about capacity. Stop HS2 is about a variety of reasons some more legitimate than others.

 

[Mvann]

True, but I think they would want to stop a new line weather it was high speed or not.

 

[NSEFAN]

True, but I think they would want to stop a new line weather it was high speed or not.

The real reason the locals object to the line is because it is on their doorstep. This is a reasonable objection, and I suspect many people on this forum might have similar sentiments should, say, a new airport be built near to their homes. I know I would.

What I object to is the lies and smokescreen that the anti-HS2 brigade have been generating to try and justify their cause. I'd have more respect for them if they came out with the real reason, rather than make up rubbish about the trains needing to be 90 metres apart due to turbulence. :roll:

 

[JohnB57]

The majority of Pendolinos will be 11-cars, Coach G will be Standard Class on every Pendolino, new 6-car EMU's will be running on the Birmingham to Scotland route, these will displace Super Voyagers which can then be used for new services to new destinations.

It's not hard to see where First are predicting the growth to come from. First also seem to want to manage capacity better than Virgin - spreading out loadings across all services rather than having quiet Peak services and packed Off-Peak services.

HS2 is a completely different proposition.

Managing the capacity is one thing and not what I was referring to.

And it certainly is hard to see where growth of that magnitude will come from. Could you perhaps enlighten me?

 

[Donny Dave]

Here's another classic. Not content with labelling Hs2Ltd and supporters as ''Nazis' they're now crying foul because they've lost the chance to fiddle footpath usage figures.

Calling pro HS2 supporters nazis I agree is offensive, however, what I do find amusing is that quite a few people who are in favour don't actually tweet/post anything relevent about the various arguments flying around over HS2, and instead just try to belittle those who are against HS2.

Pots and kettles anyone?

 

[ainsworth74]

This is a reasonable objection, and I suspect many people on this forum might have similar sentiments should, say, a new airport be built near to their homes. I know I would.

Yes so would I (if for no other reason than my local airport barely stays open so having another would be really stupid ). However, we're not talking about a new airport we're talking about a High Speed railway and if someone wanted to build one of those near my home bearing in mind all we've been told about noise and vibration I wouldn't have an issue about it.

 

[Clip]

In this day and age when people are crying out for jobs and spending on infrastructure projects which in turn would generate apprenticeships and all that for the young too all we get is mithering and dithering and anything to stop progress and investment. Then whoever it is gets moaned at for not investing.. Ahh you cant win with such a fickle country as ours.

But in the words of the voice of Bull Durham..

"If you build it - they will come".

Just get on with it already i am so bored of the to-ing and fro-ing.

 

[Wath Yard]

Managing the capacity is one thing and not what I was referring to.

And it certainly is hard to see where growth of that magnitude will come from. Could you perhaps enlighten me?

I don't want to start a debate on here regarding First's proposals seeing as there is already a very large thread discussing them but saying First have to replicate Virgin's growth in half the time is too simplistic.

I've seen the exact year on year growth figures in the past but can't remember exactly what they are. However, virtually all of the growth on ICWC has occured since 2002, with a large portion of it since the introduction of VHF. So a fair amount of the growth has occured in a deep recession.

Rail passenger number stats aren't very reliable as they keep adding ticket types to the stats and change the methodology every now then, and with ICWC the franchise changed with additional services when they rejigged XC. All these things muddy the waters.

 

[JohnB57]

In this day and age when people are crying out for jobs and spending on infrastructure projects which in turn would generate apprenticeships and all that for the young too all we get is mithering and dithering and anything to stop progress and investment. Then whoever it is gets moaned at for not investing.. Ahh you cant win with such a fickle country as ours.

But using public money on massive projects such as HS2 just to generate jobs is, as someone once said, a little like buying more beer to make money on the empties. There needs to be a sound business case and many non-nimby sceptics are dubious about the information being used to justify the project.

I don't want to start a debate on here regarding First's proposals seeing as there is already a very large thread discussing them but saying First have to replicate Virgin's growth in half the time is too simplistic.

I've seen the exact year on year growth figures in the past but can't remember exactly what they are. However, virtually all of the growth on ICWC has occured since 2002, with a large portion of it since the introduction of VHF. So a fair amount of the growth has occured in a deep recession.

Rail passenger number stats aren't very reliable as they keep adding ticket types to the stats and change the methodology every now then, and with ICWC the franchise changed with additional services when they rejigged XC. All these things muddy the waters.

You clearly know your railways. But I have been at the sharp end of a couple of businesses and if I stood in front of a bank or an investor and promised what they're promising, I'd either have to have a very clear rationale or I'd have to pay them to stop laughing. Telling them that my figures are correct because "the stats aren't reliable" would result in instant incontinence. Once again, this is the primary business case not only for First's successful bid but also justification for HS2. Can someone tell me why all those extra people will be making all those additional journeys by 2026?

 

[Wath Yard]

Can someone tell me why all those extra people will be making all those additional journeys by 2026?

Regarding First's bid and the HS2 business case I can fairly safely say - no, nobody can. It's all guess work and as far as First is concerned we just have to hope they've guessed right. Same thing for HS2 if it is actually built.

 

[Clip]

But using public money on massive projects such as HS2 just to generate jobs is, as someone once said, a little like buying more beer to make money on the empties. There needs to be a sound business case and many non-nimby sceptics are dubious about the information being used to justify the project.

Its not just to generate jobs though - that is a by-product of the project full stop - and given that its going to take a very long time to build it then that secures jobs for an awful long time which is a benefit is it not?

And our population is on the increase too is it not so by the time the first trench is done the babies of today will be ready to ride the rials tomorrow and so on and so forth.

Rather then thinking of the negatives about such a project, try thinking about the positives that it could and will bring from long term employment on the building side of things to stuff like house building once people can actually move out of london properly and commute in and so on and so forth. If you look at a bigger picture then 'its a waste of money' 'its being built right in my back yard' and anything else and try and think about the good things may do then maybe we can get it built so that future generations dont hate us for not doing it and are still travelling on cramped and over crowded trains.


Failing that they will just build more roads and be done with it. Easier option.

 

[Tiny Tim]

We shouldn't be surprised at the tactics used by anti-HS2 groups, they're simply using every weapon available to them. In the past, pro-railway organisations have used dubious tactics to achieve their aims. I expect the well-informed members of this forum can remember that happening. The morality of campaigners is that the end justifies the means.

As for the supposed fiddling of footpath survey figures, it's much more easily done in the comfort of an office rather than wasting a Saturday on it.

 

[jones_bangor]

As far as I'm concerned, I don't see the need for HS2, based on this:

(1) There's plenty of unexploited capacity on London - Birmingham (WCML and an expanding Chiltern service)

(2) The line will never get to Scotland, the money will never be there, and the distances we travel are far smaller than Spain or France....

 

[TGV]

As far as I'm concerned, I don't see the need for HS2, based on this:

(2) The line will never get to Scotland, the money will never be there, and the distances we travel are far smaller than Spain or France....

The first high speed line in France (and Europe) and still remains their busiest is Paris sud est line to Lyon which is considerably shorter than the UKs two North/South main lines to Glasgow and Edinburgh.

The Atlantique line to Tours is shorter than London to Manchester but even if you remained on the train to Bordeaux it is still some 40 miles less than London to Glasgow.

 

[Snapper]

So there are no references to Nazis in the article, and someone who has looked can't find any reference to Nazis in the Twitter feed.

Then that person didn't look very hard. Here's one of the quotes:

"For many it is a war; #HS2 will do damage to people's environment and lives that the Nazi did not manage to do. "

 

[merlodlliw]

As far as I'm concerned, I don't see the need for HS2, based on this:

(1) There's plenty of unexploited capacity on London - Birmingham (WCML and an expanding Chiltern service)

(2) The line will never get to Scotland, the money will never be there, and the distances we travel are far smaller than Spain or France....

I fully agree with your points.

On a smaller scale,people have the right to object, we objected to the imposition of bank holiday cuts & the loss of a Birmingham service on the Wrexham line due to ATW bypassing the consultation process,through objection we have forced the toc to reinstall the Birmingham service.

My wife is a member of the statutory Local Access Forum(LAF), if the County Council agreed paid consultants or whoever to be used on a Sunday which is probably the busiest day for use of footpaths, then switched to Saturday a less busy day for counting, she would play hell about it and quite right too.

Just my thoughts.

Bob

 

[NSEFAN]

Snapper, would it have killed you to post a link to the quote? Having googled it I have now found it (albeit it appears to have been removed and Google's cache is still holding onto it).

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Calling pro HS2 supporters nazis I agree is offensive, however, what I do find amusing is that quite a few people who are in favour don't actually tweet/post anything relevent about the various arguments flying around over HS2, and instead just try to belittle those who are against HS2.

Pots and kettles anyone?

David anyone who stands up to those who oppose HS2 is usually met with a barrage of criticism and accusations that they must be profiteering from HS2 in some way. It became so bad the guy that ran the yes to HS2 blog gave up earlier this year due to the level of personal attacks via twitter.

 

[YorkshireBear]

David anyone who stands up to those who oppose HS2 is usually met with a barrage of criticism and accusations that they must be profiteering from HS2 in some way. It became so bad the guy that ran the yes to HS2 blog gave up earlier this year due to the level of personal attacks via twitter.

Yep exactly, i agree, I put some pro HS2 comments on twitter and within 20 minues i had 6 tweets calling me various expletives and within an hour i had over a 100 as they had told their friends :/ it caused me to lock my twitter account for 2 weeks to make them stop. I now put nothing on twitter because of this.
I filled in the consultation and have convinvced all my friends it is needed. I cant do much more without any form of abuse.

 

[Snapper]

David anyone who stands up to those who oppose HS2 is usually met with a barrage of criticism and accusations that they must be profiteering from HS2 in some way. It became so bad the guy that ran the yes to HS2 blog gave up earlier this year due to the level of personal attacks via twitter.

That's why we're fighting back. It's also why I'm encouraging more people to join in and spread the load.

I've had all those personal attacks, threats of legal action and even had my private data published on Twitter. It won't stop me.

We need more people to join in.

 

[Pumbaa]

Quite. I often wade in. I can also confirm Godwins law was invoked as it appeared on my timeline.

I'm all for debate and reasoned argument, but I won't deliberately poke the hornets nest.

 

[Snapper]

Snapper, would it have killed you to post a link to the quote? Having googled it I have now found it (albeit it appears to have been removed and Google's cache is still holding onto it).

TBH I'm busy and it wasn't that that difficult to find. The quote still appears on that personal Twitter account. Another equally 'balanced' person posts under the name @AnnaRackOnfire

 

[HSTEd]

Frankly the argument that current demand will not fill HS2 is more than a bit dodgy.

The operating costs of a high speed rail service, (with one train crew for potentially 1300 passengers, the reduced journey times leading to reduced need for complementary catering in first class and the semi automated traffic control available on such a simple system, with ATO/DOO being feasible for the same reason) are in fact drastically lower per seat than conventional rail.

I calculated that if you could fill all unoccupied seats for ~£10 return to Birmingham and ~£15 return to Manchester/Leeds you would still bbreak even with gilt rate financing. [For comparison the Amersham-London fare on Oyster in the peak is £6.40 each way]

It effectively makes Birmingham part of London and turns Manchester into the equivalent of Peterborough or something.
(And this is assuming 12tph and not the planned 8, with 4tph to all three destinations and no CC services)

 

[bluenoxid]

Frankly the argument that current demand will not fill HS2 is more than a bit dodgy.

The operating costs of a high speed rail service, (with one train crew for potentially 1300 passengers, the reduced journey times leading to reduced need for complementary catering in first class and the semi automated traffic control available on such a simple system, with ATO/DOO being feasible for the same reason) are in fact drastically lower per seat than conventional rail.

I calculated that if you could fill all unoccupied seats for ~£10 return to Birmingham and ~£15 return to Manchester/Leeds you would still bbreak even with gilt rate financing. [For comparison the Amersham-London fare on Oyster in the peak is £6.40 each way]

It effectively makes Birmingham part of London and turns Manchester into the equivalent of Peterborough or something.
(And this is assuming 12tph and not the planned 8, with 4tph to all three destinations and no CC services)

Come on, bring out the Maths rather than come up with headline figures that help absolutely nobody.

That's why we're fighting back. .

Why! The joy of having such proactive opponents is that it will make a judicial review a cruise because all of their errors will be pointed out before it even gets there. It is much easier to refine issues before the case starts rather than looking like a blubbering wreck during.

 

[Squaddie]

What we need is nicer trains, not high-speed trains. Trains that make rail travel in the UK a pleasant experience rather than the seventh circle of hell that it currently is.

I recently took a TGV from Paris to Hendaye. Lovely train, and it didn't matter at all that most of the journey was on normal track. I'd rather spend 6 hours on a comfortable train than 3 on an unpleasant one. (My definition of pleasant: face-to-face single seats, comfortable, upholstered and reclining, aligned with the window. That shouldn't be much to ask, but it seems to be beyond the ability of most UK TOCs.)

 

[SS4]

What we need is nicer trains, not high-speed trains. Trains that make rail travel in the UK a pleasant experience rather than the seventh circle of hell that it currently is.

Then come the arguments about getting a seat, especially in peak times

I recently took a TGV from Paris to Hendaye. Lovely train, and it didn't matter at all that most of the journey was on normal track. I'd rather spend 6 hours on a comfortable train than 3 on an unpleasant one. (My definition of pleasant: face-to-face single seats, comfortable, upholstered and reclining, aligned with the window. That shouldn't be much to ask, but it seems to be beyond the ability of most UK TOCs.)

Congratulations. I'm sure you're aware that comfort is subjective and is therefore impossible for TOCs to get right. As a comparison I wonder how many people outside the enthusiast community prefer HSTs to every other type of rolling stock.

It's my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong) but building a HS line is not that much more expensive than building a normal line.

 

[Yew]

What we need is nicer trains, not high-speed trains. Trains that make rail travel in the UK a pleasant experience rather than the seventh circle of hell that it currently is.

I recently took a TGV from Paris to Hendaye. Lovely train, and it didn't matter at all that most of the journey was on normal track. I'd rather spend 6 hours on a comfortable train than 3 on an unpleasant one. (My definition of pleasant: face-to-face single seats, comfortable, upholstered and reclining, aligned with the window. That shouldn't be much to ask, but it seems to be beyond the ability of most UK TOCs.)

Unfortunately the main current problem is capacity and speed, meaning squished in airline seats, limited catering, and Underfoor engines are the deal.

I think With the extra capacity from HS2, we could see more thoughts to comfort, as the speed and capacity issues should be mitigated

 

[HSTEd]

Come on, bring out the Maths rather than come up with headline figures that help absolutely nobody.

£33000 million capital cost
40 year payback period
	37 year inflation linked gilt financing rate is -0.11%
	Annual repayment of £789.5 million

Line operates at normal capacity for 350 days per year.
Daily maintenance cost is £2.25 million

Trains 16 hours a day at full capacity
~ £140,625 per hour for infrastructure capacity

Assume 12 trains per hour that defray capital costs (excluding Classic Compatible trains)
~ £11,718.75 per train.

-----


Non track maintenance is roughly ~1% of capital cost on the formation.
£33000 million capital cost leads to roughly £330 million maintenance cost per yea.

Scaling from infrastructure repayment leads to (again excluding CC trains) - £4898.27 per train

-----

Train of choice is a ~400m long TGV Duplex formation with intermediate motor trailers. ~760t.
4 Trains per hour to Birmingham ~160km
8 Trains per hour to Leeds/Manchester ~280km

Train runs ~320km for a return trip to Birmingham 
Train runs ~560km for a return trip to Leeds/Manchester

~145-200 thousand tonnes pass over the core track in each direction each day - roughly £50,000 per kilometre per year.
~100 thousand tonnes pass over the branch trakcs in each direction each day - roughly £40,000 per kilometre per year

Total track quantity of 320km core track, 480km of branch track - total track maintenance costs of £35.2 million per year.
This translates to £100,000 per day, which translates to ~£520 per train.

-----

Train energy consumption.
TGV Duplex double trainset - 760t x 55Wh.tonne-kilometre = 41.8kWh per kilometre travelled.
Energy cost of ~6p/kWh - £60/Mwh

Birmingham 320km return trip - 13.376MWh - £802.56
Manchester/Leeds 560km return trip - 23.408MWh - £1404.48

----

Train Maintenance costs.

£40m per 400m trainset.
Annual maintenance costs - 0.3 x £40m - £12/km maintenance.

Birmingham 320km return trip - £3,840
Manchester/Leeds 560km return trip - £6,720

Capital cost of trainset is effectively irrelevent as far smaller than maintenace cost thanks to very intensive use of trainsets and may be folded into project capital costs.

----

Train staffing.

Birmingham Train - ~2 hour cycle time - ~8 round trips over 2 shifts - 4 round trips per shift
Manchester/Leeds train - ~3 hour cycle time ~ 5 round trips over 2 shifts - 2.5 round trips per shift

6 Traincrew aboard - Train Operator/Driver, Guard, 4 Catering staff.
Average of £25000 p.a - assume 5 8 hour shifts/wk, 50wk/yr. 250 shifts/yr.
	£100/shift


Birmingham 2 hour cycle - £150 staffing costs
Manchester 3 hour cycle - £240 staffing costs

----

Total Costs

Project Capital Cost:
	£11,718.75 per train
Non Track Maintenance cost:
	£4,898.27 per train
Track Maintenance
	£520 per train
Train Energy Consumption:
	Birmingham: £802.56
	Manchester/Leeds: £1404.48
Train Maintenance
	Birmingham: £3840
	Manchester/Leeds: £6720
Train staffing
	Birmingham: £150
	Manchester/Leeds: £240

Totals:
	Birmingham: £21,929.08 per train
	Manchester/Leeds: £25,501 per train

----

Train Capacity:
400m TGV Duplex with intermediate power bogies (Coaches A, J, K, T)
18 trailer vehicles
	Coach A:
		1st class - 38 seats upper, 24 seats lower
		Disabled Toilet
		Wheelchair Space
	Coach B:
		1st Class - 32 seats upper, 28 seats lower
		Play Area
	Coach C:
		1st Class - 32 seats upper, 28 seats lower
		Play Area
	Coach D:
		1st Class - 38 seats upper, 24 seats lower
		Disabled Toilet
		Wheelchair Space
	Coach E:
		Bar/Buffet - upper deck only
	Coach F:
		2nd Class - 38 seats upper, 34 seats lower
		Play Area
		Disabled Toilet
		Wheelchair Space
	Coach G:
		2nd Class - 42 seats upper, 38 seats lower
		4 4-seat "Family Compartments"
		Play Area
	Coach H:
		2nd CLass - 42 seats upper, 38 seats lower
		4 4-seat "Family Compartments"
		Play Area
		Baby Changing facilities
	Coach J:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	Coach K:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	Coach L:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	COach M:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	Coach N:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	Coach P:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	Coach Q:
		2nd Class - 54 seats upper, 38 seats lower
	Coach R:
		2nd Class - 42 seats upper, 38 seats lower
		4 4-seat "Family Compartments"
		Play Area
		Baby Changing facilities
	Coach S:
		2nd Class - 42 seats upper, 38 seats lower
		4 4-seat "Family Compartments"
		Play Area
	Coach T:
		2nd Class - 38 seats upper, 34 seats lower
		Play Area
		Disabled Toilet
		Wheelchair Space

Seat count:
	244 1st Class seats
	1 1st Class Wheelchair
	1108 2nd Class seats
	2 2nd Class wheelchairs

Extras:
 	16 4-seat "Family Compartments"
	3 Disabled Toilets

----

Ticketing, assume the 100% occupied breakeven price.
Assuming that 1st class costs 50% more than 2nd.
Assume no extra charge for "Family Compartments"
Assume Wheelchair slots not considered revenue earning

244 1st class seats is revenue equivalent to 366 2nd Class seats
Train has 1474 2nd class seat equivalents.

At projected costs per train:
	100% breakeven for Birmingham: £14.87 return or ~7.5p/mile
	100% breakeven for Manchester/Leeds: £17.3 return. ~4.9p/mile.

Notice that this shows the extreme cross subsidy for Manchester services that Birmingham trains pay in this analysis due to infrastructure cost distribution modelling issues. Yet it gives a useful order-of-magnitude result.

I admit this model is extremely crude.
But yeah, this is what I got, I will refine it when better data is available, most of the assumptions are based on information available on the internet or this this document.
It also does not include DOO, but since additional staff are required in the control centre (although far smaller than the number of guards I propose to eliminate) that is not really a factor and would further reduce the cost of the tickets.

I assume there would be any time tickets in the ~£20 Birmingham and ~£30 Manchester returns with the remaining tickets dispersed at very very low cost as APEX tickets.

 

[NSEFAN]

Thankyou for that analysis, HSTEd.

Obviously the trains won't be 100% full even at those prices, so if these trains are at an average of 30% capacity (as is the current situation on the WCML, I believe), then this pushes up the break-even cost of a Birmingham ticket to about £50 and a Manchester/Leeds ticket to around £60. (Calculated assuming the cost of a Birmingham train will be £21'918.38 and Manchester/Leeds train £26'237.20, worked out using your analysis).

For comparison, here are the current Anytime Returns from London: EUS-BHM £79.00, EUS-MAN £148.00 and STP-LDS £124.50.

 

[Snapper]

What we need is nicer trains, not high-speed trains. Trains that make rail travel in the UK a pleasant experience rather than the seventh circle of hell that it currently is.

An argument that completely misses the point that Hs2 will be built to European loading gauge. Thus allowing more comfort than what we have now.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Why! The joy of having such proactive opponents is that it will make a judicial review a cruise because all of their errors will be pointed out before it even gets there. It is much easier to refine issues before the case starts rather than looking like a blubbering wreck during.

No, because that's not what the Judicial review process does. It does mean that we can infer they're talking rubbish, but the JRs only establish that the law has been applied correctly, nothing more. They can still spin to their hearts content.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

It's my understanding (correct me if I'm wrong) but building a HS line is not that much more expensive than building a normal line.

You're correct. One only has to look at the WCRM. A partial modernisation of a line that will be at full capacity by the mid 2020s cost us £10bn.