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The Middle East conflict

Gloster

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I also think we should now ban the Americans from our bases, if he wants to continue with this distraction we need to protect ourselves as much as possible from repercussions and I think kicking the Americans off our bases would stand us in better stead with the Iranians and they'll direct their anger on the US and Israel.

I don’t think we should we be throwing the US forces out or insisting on restrictions on their activities in order to please the Iranians. We should be doing it because we should not have foreign forces on our territory that are, now or at any time, taking part in what can best be described as an illegal war. US forces using British bases to defend their country is bad enough, but understandable and (arguably) tolerable for historical reasons, but using these bases to launch an offensive war is not.
 
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dgl

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I don’t think we should we be throwing the US forces out or insisting on restrictions on their activities in order to please the Iranians. We should be doing it because we should not have foreign forces on our territory that are, now or at any time, taking part in what can best be described as an illegal war. US forces using British bases to defend their country is bad enough, but understandable and (arguably) tolerable for historical reasons, but using these bases to launch an offensive war is not.
Well yes we shouldn't be appeasing a repressive government, I was just thinking of how best we could insulate ourselves from any repercussions, and in some ways the US government is also repressive (although not to Irans level naturally).
 

brad465

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Classic case of "we're losing, so time to get desperate":


Trump says US will ‘obliterate’ Iran’s power plants if Strait of Hormuz not opened

Our live coverage of conflict in the Middle East continues, following a new warning from President Donald Trump that the US will "obliterate" Iran’s power plants if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

  • Iran has responded that it will retaliate against all US-linked energy infrastructure in the Middle East if its power plants are attacked
  • Earlier on Saturday, Trump also remarked that he had achieved his war aims "weeks ahead of schedule", and insisted that although Iran wanted to "make a deal", he did not
  • More than 100 people have been injured after strikes on the towns of Dimona and Arad in southern Israel - the target appears to have been a nuclear facility 13km away from the city of Dimona
  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was a "very difficult evening" for Israel after the attacks on the country's south, adding that "we are determined to continue to strike our enemies on all fronts"
  • Overnight, the IDF said it had launched a new wave of strikes on Tehran, which followed an attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility
  • The UAE says it has responded to new Iranian missile and drone attacks, while Qatar's defence ministry says it is searching for a helicopter that crashed off its coast during "routine duty"


Stay with us as we bring you the latest developments.
 

najaB

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I thought those two locations said a lot about what Trump and his presidency are really about.
They have said it more plainly than that. Kevin Hasset (head economic advisor to the White House) said in an interview that the economy is fine, and that consumers weren't a priority.

Translation: the billionaire class is fine, ##### the average Joe.
“If [the war] were to be extended, it wouldn’t really disrupt the U.S. economy very much at all. It would hurt consumers, and we’d have to think about, you know, if that continued, what we would have to do about that,” Hassett said.

“But that’s really the last of our concerns right now. Because we’re very confident that this thing is going ahead of schedule,” he went on.
Link: https://truthout.org/articles/trump...ain-to-consumers-is-the-last-of-our-concerns/
 

Annetts key

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I don’t think we should we be throwing the US forces out or insisting on restrictions on their activities in order to please the Iranians. We should be doing it because we should not have foreign forces on our territory that are, now or at any time, taking part in what can best be described as an illegal war. US forces using British bases to defend their country is bad enough, but understandable and (arguably) tolerable for historical reasons, but using these bases to launch an offensive war is not.
Agreed. I have no love for the current Iranian regime. The world would be far better place with it gone. But then the same could be said for Trump and his regime. But no one is suggesting that bombing will result in regime change there.

During WWII bombing didn't cause Hitler's regime to fall And the German bombing of London didn't result in our government falling.

And the Iranian government has a well planned system for replacing any dead or incapacitated government leaders. So getting regime change by bombing is rather unlikely. And I don't see the U.S.A. mounting a ground campaign.
 
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Harpo

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I also think we should now ban the Americans from our bases
I’d not like to be in Starmer’s shoes, having to tread a fine line protecting our interests without provoking more orange man baby wobblies.

That said, I reckon Starmer's done well and would be an excellent foreign secretary when Rayner’s PM. ;)
 

martin butler

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Agreed. I have no love for the current Iranian regime. The world would be far better place with it gone. But then the same could be said for Trump and his regime. But no one is suggesting that bombing will result in regime change there.
During WWII bombing didn't cause Hitler's regime to fall And the German bombing of London didn't result in our government falling.

And the Iranian government has a well planned system for replacing any dead or incapacitated government leaders. So getting regime change by bombing is rather unlikely. And I don't see the U.S.A. mounting a ground campaign.

To be totally honest the world will be a much better place with Trump, Netanyahu, Puttin all gone to, Iran I think could have been contained by peaceful means, But Trump was clearly gotten too, in part by his own hatred of what Obama managed to do, and what Isreal was holding over him, and the very influential Zionist lobby in the US, who paid a lot of money to his campaign.
 

EYFanatic

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Funny how just as Trump is egging NATO to be involved in the war an inter-ballistic missile is fired at Diego Garcia; clearly Donald thinks people jump into and get involved with wars without providing the full story…

IF Iran fired the missile that is…
Its entirely possible they did - the Khorramshahr-4 (also known as the Kheibar) was rumoured to have a 2,500 mile range range but most people thought this was unlikely. If its actually confirmed as being so, then that should just about put London and most of the Home Counties in range... Maybe parts of the southern midlands with a degree of luck and a tail wind. Depending on if they launch from a mobile launcher of their western most border, then parts of Yorkshire could be hit

Credit where credit is due, they got very close to getting one of the two to hit. If they had been fitted with equipment to relay engineering data back home, they could use it to improve the design
 

adc82140

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Just to point out that it'd have to cross a lot of heavily guarded airspace before it reached the UK. A straight line from the westernmost part of Iran to the UK goes over the Eastern flank of NATO, namely Romania and Poland, which is very much set up for air defence (albeit with Russia in mind)

Certain aspects of the media are treating this as clickbait. There are not swarms of Iranian missiles likely to be heading to London.
 
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Bayum

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Its entirely possible they did - the Khorramshahr-4 (also known as the Kheibar) was rumoured to have a 2,500 mile range range but most people thought this was unlikely. If its actually confirmed as being so, then that should just about put London and most of the Home Counties in range... Maybe parts of the southern midlands with a degree of luck and a tail wind. Depending on if they launch from a mobile launcher of their western most border, then parts of Yorkshire could be hit

Credit where credit is due, they got very close to getting one of the two to hit. If they had been fitted with equipment to relay engineering data back home, they could use it to improve the design
I’m not denying it potentially could have happened… I just think it’s a massive oddity that we’re in this position after Trump and Israel have surely shared their justification for beginning this assault yet even with said informationNATO allies refuse to take part. Then, we have Trump criticising Starmer and suddenly have an ICBM fired ‘from Iran’.
 

Gloster

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My opinion is that a missile attack is unlikely, but an act of sabotage is possible. I suspect that this might be quite small for a number of reasons:

The sudden outbreak of hostilities has meant that the Iranians have not specifically prepared for an attack here and now.
The Iranian authorities (probably) do not want to cause a massive incident that will cause just about everybody to unite against them. I say ‘probably’ as some of them are true fanatics.
They, or at least the more rational ones in the hierarchy, would probably be happy with a small ‘look what we can do if we want’ demonstration.
MI5 seem to have been on high alert for some time and they may have a good idea who most of the serious threats are.
 

EYFanatic

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The sudden outbreak of hostilities has meant that the Iranians have not specifically prepared for an attack here and now.
Yes... As seen by two Iranian agents knocking on the gatehouse at Faslane the other day asking if they can come in and have a look around
 

Peter Mugridge

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Yes... As seen by two Iranian agents knocking on the gatehouse at Faslane the other day asking if they can come in and have a look around
I do hope the MoD were keeping the back guarded while they were dealing with this at the front...!!
 

EYFanatic

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Just to point out that it'd have to cross a lot of heavily guarded airspace before it reached the UK. A straight line from the westernmost part of Iran to the UK goes over the Eastern flank of NATO, namely Romania and Poland, which is very much set up for air defence (albeit with Russia in mind)
Which would be useless with the missile in an ICBM role
 

Harpo

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Iran does not have systems with the range to meet the UK.
Dr Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said: "Missile range is an elastic thing - in that if you put a lighter warhead on a missile, you can extend its range".

He said that while it was "probably accurate" that Iran had missiles capable of reaching the UK, it was "not the most pressing threat" because these weapons are inaccurate at long distances and would have to travel through very well-defended airspace to enter UK airspace.
 

najaB

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With the reduced payload required to send it that distance, that's a pretty good description.
That said, if they were able to hit directly on target then they would make pretty effective kinetic energy weapons. But we're a long way from them achieving that level of accuracy.
 

Harpo

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Read some of the other quotes and graphics in that article.
I’ve read the article and fully understood the graphics, thanks. I was simply referencing an expert who explained how the UK was potentially in range with a lighter warhead.
 

Peter Mugridge

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With the reduced payload required to send it that distance, that's a pretty good description.
Also, of the two missiles fired, one failed part the way there ( possibly it ran out of fuel? ) and the other was shot down a long way before it got anywhere near Diego Garcia - so not just a firework, but a damp squib...
 

Harpo

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Also, of the two missiles fired, one failed part the way there ( possibly it ran out of fuel? ) and the other was shot down a long way before it got anywhere near Diego Garcia - so not just a firework, but a damp squib...
All part of the Trump/Iran chest bumping.
 

najaB

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Also, of the two missiles fired, one failed part the way there ( possibly it ran out of fuel? ) and the other was shot down a long way before it got anywhere near Diego Garcia - so not just a firework, but a damp squib...
That's not the way that ballistic missiles work. There are three flight phases: boost, coast (in the case of ICBMs exo-atmospheric) and terminal.

The engine(s) only fire during the initial boost phase which, depending on the system, lasts anything from a tens of seconds (for short range missiles) through to several minutes (for ICBMs). Once the boost phase is over the payload follows a mostly or entirely ballistic path and doesn't require fuel.

More advanced missiles have active control during the coast phase, and this is likely what failed. If I had to guess, one or more of the cold-gas thrusters failed (possibly failed open) which pushed it significantly off course and also likely left it in the wrong orientation for atmospheric reentry, meaning that the payload burned up high in the atmosphere.
 

Peter Mugridge

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Do they actually use these ballistically, though?

That one was intercepted a long way from the target suggests not?
 

najaB

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Do they actually use these ballistically, though?

That one was intercepted a long way from the target suggests not?
With a 2,000+ mile range? Yes, this well into IRBM territory and verging on ICBM. It's been reported that the missiles lobbed at Diego Garcia were directly derived from their satellite launch vehicle (possibly the Safir).
 

Annetts key

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Just to point out that it'd have to cross a lot of heavily guarded airspace before it reached the UK. A straight line from the westernmost part of Iran to the UK goes over the Eastern flank of NATO, namely Romania and Poland, which is very much set up for air defence (albeit with Russia in mind)

Certain aspects of the media are treating this as clickbait. There are not swarms of Iranian missiles likely to be heading to London.

Which would be useless with the missile in an ICBM role

Also, of the two missiles fired, one failed part the way there ( possibly it ran out of fuel? ) and the other was shot down a long way before it got anywhere near Diego Garcia - so not just a firework, but a damp squib...
Was one really shot down? In any war including this one, truth is the first causality.

With a missile that uses a ballistic trajectory, it's not easy for an interceptor missile to successfully damage it throughout the entire flight. So how effective an interceptor missile may be does depend on where the ballistic missile is at the time. The speed of the missile is also a factor, as it's much harder to intercept at faster speeds.

A "long range" ballistic missile at the highest point of it's flight travels very high up in the upper layers of the atmosphere or even beyond that into space, making it very hard to intercept during this part of it's flight.

And in the terminal part of the flight, as the speed reaches maximum, that's also a difficult part of the fight path for a interceptor missile to hit a ballistic missile.

So it's unlikely that a ballistic missile aimed at the U.K. flying very high over the European mainland would be intercepted during the highest part of it's trajectory.

Having said that, I don't think Iran will target the U.K. mainland.
 

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