The Middle East conflict

[GusB]

Apparently Netanyahu hasn't been seen in public since this war started, and has been releasing videos of himself that look like AI. My guess is he won't record a real video or appear anywhere in public in case Iranian intelligence can pickup a trace to locate him for an assassination attempt.

Yes, I've seen quite a bit of "is he dead?" speculation on a few YouTube videos. He's probably (quite wisely) holed up somewhere very safe and secure, although I don't hear Hegseth calling Netanyahu out for being a coward in the same way that he criticised the Iranian leadership.

He'll be drawing up plans for his next land grab.

 

[brad465]

This could have gone in this or the Trump thread, but think it fits better here given the reason - the top US counterterrorism official has resigned in opposition to the war in Iran and says Trump should change course:

Top US counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigns over Iran war

National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent says Trump "started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby".

www.bbc.co.uk

The Trump administration's top official on counterterrorism has resigned from his position, citing opposition to the war in Iran, and urged the president to "reverse course".
In a letter posted on X, National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent said that Iran posed "no imminent threat" to the US and claimed that the Trump administration "started this war due to pressure from Israel" and its powerful American lobby.
Kent, 45, is a US special forces and CIA veteran whose wife, navy cryptologic technician Shannon Kent, was killed in a suicide bombing in Syria in 2019.
The BBC has contacted the White House for comment on Kent's resignation.
Additionally, Kent alleged that "high-ranking Israeli officials" and influential US journalists had sowed "misinformation" that caused Trump to undermine his "America First" platform.
"This echo was used to deceive you into believing that Iran posted an imminent threat to the United States," the letter continued. "This was a lie."

 

[gg1]

This could have gone in this or the Trump thread, but think it fits better here given the reason - the top US counterterrorism official has resigned in opposition to the war in Iran and says Trump should change course:

Top US counterterrorism official Joe Kent resigns over Iran war

National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent says Trump "started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby".

www.bbc.co.uk

What's especially interesting about this is he's MAGA through and through and probably representative of many Trump zealots. Could this be the start of Trump losing sections of his core voter base?

To quote the same article:

Kent, a long-time supporter of Trump's, was narrowly confirmed to his post in July last year, with many Democrats criticising his links to extremist groups including members of the Proud Boys.

In the confirmation hearing, Kent also refused to back away from claims that federal agents had fomented the January 6 riots at the US Capitol or that Trump had won the 2020 election.

 

[brad465]

Reaping the whirlwind of giving successive Israeli regimes sacred cow treatment, who have to bomb all their neighbours to keep their apartheid regime sustained in the same way South Africa bombed all its neighbours for over two decades:

Blasts heard over Jerusalem as new strikes launched on Tehran

Elsewhere in the region, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain both say they have intercepted and destroyed drones.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK gas prices soar more than 20%
​

Katie Hope
BBC business reporter

UK gas prices this morning have soared over 20% after fresh strikes hit energy infrastructure in the Middle East, including Qatar's main gas facility.

UK gas prices are currently up by 23% to 171p per therm.

The oil price is trading at around 5% higher, at $113 a barrel.

Two waves of Iranian strikes caused "extensive damage" at Qatar's main gas hub, the country's state-run energy firm has said.

 

[nw1]

Reaping the whirlwind of giving successive Israeli regimes sacred cow treatment, who have to bomb all their neighbours to keep their apartheid regime sustained in the same way South Africa bombed all its neighbours for over two decades:

Blasts heard over Jerusalem as new strikes launched on Tehran

Elsewhere in the region, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain both say they have intercepted and destroyed drones.

www.bbc.co.uk

Why do we consider this man our friend? I simply don't understand.

 

[jon0844]

Why do we consider this man our friend? I simply don't understand.

It's crazy that the USA and Israel are now arguing about who knew this and that. So Trump says he didn't know what Israel just did, but Israel counters by saying they approved it.

Maybe Trump forgot as his dementia is getting noticeably worse, but that in itself is terrifying as he will order something to be done that he later forgets and denies. This allows Israel to pretty much do what it wants.

 

[adc82140]

I've just renewed my fixed price energy tariff as I'm watching with dismay the gas prices go up. It's unbelievably still cheaper than last year for now.

It's just petrol prices to deal with now, and there's not a grest deal I can do about that.

 

[styles]

I've just renewed my fixed price energy tariff as I'm watching with dismay the gas prices go up. It's unbelievably still cheaper than last year for now.

It's just petrol prices to deal with now, and there's not a grest deal I can do about that.

Our fixed price is locked in for another 15 months yet. I considered a new 2 year fixed (we have no exit fees on current tariff) but I'm hoping that in 15 months things will have calmed down and prices dropped again.

Got a couple of 20L jerry cans of diesel but that's more for snow emergencies than trying to beat the forecourt prices

 

[brad465]

Tulsi Gabbard came out with this statement in relation to Iran that, when delivered with a straight face, is Oscar-worthy:

Bluesky

bsky.app

“It is not the intelligence community’s responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat.”

(There's a video in the post containing the quote from the Congressional testimony yesterday)

 

[nw1]

Tulsi Gabbard came out with this statement in relation to Iran that, when delivered with a straight face, is Oscar-worthy:

Bluesky

bsky.app

Obviously it's the responsibility of intelligence-devoid idiots like Gabbard, instead.

A vacuous Trump loyalist rather than someone who actually cares about US national security. I hope all these brown-nosing, can't-think-for-themselves loyalists never get a job in public service again. They are self-evidently utterly talentless.

What is good for Trump is not what is good for the USA, let alone the world at large. Time for the Republican Party to reach this IMO obvious conclusion. They are presumably the ones that can remove him, and removing him is now an urgent priority. Even if it means JD as president.

 

[Lampshade]

I've just renewed my fixed price energy tariff as I'm watching with dismay the gas prices go up. It's unbelievably still cheaper than last year for now.

It's just petrol prices to deal with now, and there's not a grest deal I can do about that.

I was mulling it over since the start of the conflict but went and did it this morning after hearing about the gas field attack, good until next June now.

 

[Cdd89]

Why do we consider this man our friend? I simply don't understand.

For all intents and purposes, based on the respective nations' behaviour, I would say that we are no longer allies with the US. Allyship is not just doing things when your interests happen to align, which is how the US and UK are currently behaving.

If we were truly allies,

• Trump would be factoring in the negative consequences of the war on its allies like the UK
• We would be supporting the US offensively regardless of whether we supported the war

Trump's slogan (one of them) is America First and the reason this can go on for longer than we might think is because the US doesn't internalise the full negative consequences of the war, those consequences are shared with the world. It's a terrible way to make friends internationally, but I don't think Trump cares about that.

 

[nlogax]

I accidentally bumped into a livestream of Hegseth's speech at the Pentagon earlier. First and last time I'll be making that mistake. It was like watching a ten year old trapped inside an adult body, cosplaying (badly) at being in charge of all the guns'n'ammo.

Interesting to note the $200 billion that's been quoted as needed to prop up his 'laser focused' war isn't necessarily the final number. As he said at the podium, "obviously it takes money to kill bad guys". Wonder if he'll succeed in further nudging that $39 trillion national debt into $40 trillion territory?

 

[Ediswan]

For all intents and purposes, based on the respective nations' behaviour, I would say that we are no longer allies with the US. Allyship is not just doing things when your interests happen to align, which is how the US and UK are currently behaving.

If we were truly allies,

• Trump would be factoring in the negative consequences of the war on its allies like the UK
• We would be supporting the US offensively regardless of whether we supported the war

Trump's slogan (one of them) is America First and the reason this can go on for longer than we might think is because the US doesn't internalise the full negative consequences of the war, those consequences are shared with the world. It's a terrible way to make friends internationally, but I don't think Trump cares about that.

NATO is a defensive alliance.

 

[Cdd89]

NATO is a defensive alliance.

Our alliance/special relationship with the US had always been understood to be separate from and go beyond NATO.

(Fully agreed on the point re NATO involvement, but that wasn't the point I was making!)

 

[Gloster]

For all intents and purposes, based on the respective nations' behaviour, I would say that we are no longer allies with the US. Allyship is not just doing things when your interests happen to align, which is how the US and UK are currently behaving.

If we were truly allies,

• Trump would be factoring in the negative consequences of the war on its allies like the UK
• We would be supporting the US offensively regardless of whether we supported the war

Trump's slogan (one of them) is America First and the reason this can go on for longer than we might think is because the US doesn't internalise the full negative consequences of the war, those consequences are shared with the world. It's a terrible way to make friends internationally, but I don't think Trump cares about that.

Trump hasn’t even factored in the negative consequences to the US. His calculations, to the extent that they are actually his and are actually calculations, are purely based on what advantage he sees to himself.

 

[High Dyke]

NATO is a defensive alliance.

If only the Orange C**kwomble, I mean Trump realised that. Then again everytime he seems to speak it's a different story. Firstly, "we don't need NATO", then, "we expect NATO countries to send support". And there was the comments about our brave service personnel in Afghanistan.

Yes, the whole world is affected by the current 'illegal war' that has commenced. Was there justification for it? I've not seen any evidence of that. However, the price of fuel, amongst other commodities is likely to keep rising until a sensible resolution is reached.

 

[styles]

Oh he's just hurt that his ego was hit, we all know that.

Regardless of whether we join him at a small scale or ignore him completely he'll do what he wants.

He's out of WHO, out of climate agreements, he'll probably take them out of NATO, even if we joined them for a short bombing campaign.

 

[dgl]

I accidentally bumped into a livestream of Hegseth's speech at the Pentagon earlier. First and last time I'll be making that mistake. It was like watching a ten year old trapped inside an adult body, cosplaying (badly) at being in charge of all the guns'n'ammo.

Interesting to note the $200 billion that's been quoted as needed to prop up his 'laser focused' war isn't necessarily the final number. As he said at the podium, "obviously it takes money to kill bad guys". Wonder if he'll succeed in further nudging that $39 trillion national debt into $40 trillion territory?

I put the stream in on at work, when one of your first comments is on how only those with Trump derangement syndrome are reporting that the war isn't going really great for America then you know the rest is going to be pretty wild.

Plus if it was going so well they'd be able to put at least some rough predictions of when it would all end but no he wouldn't commit to any timescales.

Also I object to him calling the fallen from this war heroes, when you are killed doing something just you are a hero, when you are being made to do it because of some mad man you are Cannon fodder, and sending someone in to potentially be cannon fodder can never be justified and makes the deaths entirely avoidable rather than a casualty of war.

 

[Russel]

I've just renewed my fixed price energy tariff as I'm watching with dismay the gas prices go up. It's unbelievably still cheaper than last year for now.

Many thanks for mentioning that, you've just nudged me to check my eon next account, my current fixed deal ends in July and I'm guessing by then gas will have gone through the roof and I've just found I can switch now and lock into a 2 year fixed deal at a very similar price to what I'm already paying...

I owe you a virtual pint!

 

[nw1]

For all intents and purposes, based on the respective nations' behaviour, I would say that we are no longer allies with the US. Allyship is not just doing things when your interests happen to align, which is how the US and UK are currently behaving.

If we were truly allies,

• Trump would be factoring in the negative consequences of the war on its allies like the UK
• We would be supporting the US offensively regardless of whether we supported the war

Trump's slogan (one of them) is America First and the reason this can go on for longer than we might think is because the US doesn't internalise the full negative consequences of the war, those consequences are shared with the world. It's a terrible way to make friends internationally, but I don't think Trump cares about that.

To be fair I was talking about Netanyahu here, as he seemed to initiate the latest round of violent nonsense yesterday - but it could equally well apply to Trump.

 

[andy33gmail]

The response from Iran is interesting. They could have gone for more specific sanctions against the US rather than blocking all non-domestic shipping

They have the advantage of not needing to look peaceful, so unlike the EU could react more enthusiastically when people flagrantly circumvent sanctions … unlike civilised society vs Russia

 

[edwin_m]

The response from Iran is interesting. They could have gone for more specific sanctions against the US rather than blocking all non-domestic shipping

They have the advantage of not needing to look peaceful, so unlike the EU could react more enthusiastically when people flagrantly circumvent sanctions … unlike civilised society vs Russia

The US itself has very little dependence on the region these days - they are a net oil exporter and now have control of Venezuela's supply too. So Iran is hitting all the US allies in the region or that depend on its exports. Controlling Hormuz by targeting individual ships rather than mining it means they can let their own exports to friendly nations through and block everyone else.

I did hear on the news this morning that allies are considering sending forces in, but only when the conflict has died down. Hopefully the local navies will then also assist to get things back to normal, but it needs Trump and Netanyahu to stop the war first.

 

[Ediswan]

I note the A-10 'Warthog' is to be employed. Fifty year old technology still useful against the modern drone threat. Not quite as vintage as a B-52 of vourse.

 

[Mogster]

I note the A-10 'Warthog' is to be employed. Fifty year old technology still useful against the modern drone threat. Not quite as vintage as a B-52 of vourse.

I do enjoy the A10 in DCS but this sounds a bit desperate. As the A10 has no radar it must be very difficult to find anything. I suppose you could data link airborne targets from a ground or radar equipped aircraft, but then you could as easily guide another drone or ground based missile on to the target.

 

[JamesT]

I note the A-10 'Warthog' is to be employed. Fifty year old technology still useful against the modern drone threat. Not quite as vintage as a B-52 of vourse.

It's already been employed: https://www.armyrecognition.com/new...ck-aircraft-in-first-strike-wave-against-iran

U.S. Central Command confirmed that A-10 Thunderbolt II close air support aircraft were employed during the first 48 hours of Operation Epic Fury against Iranian targets. The attack aircraft was integrated into the initial strike wave, indicating missions requiring sustained close air support, armed overwatch, and engagement of dispersed targets amid the largest U.S. regional buildup since 2003.

I do enjoy the A10 in DCS but this sounds a bit desperate. As the A10 has no radar it must be very difficult to find anything. I suppose you could data link airborne targets from a ground or radar equipped aircraft, but then you could as easily guide another drone or ground based missile on to the target.

The advantage of the A10 is the pilot can eyeball the target before attacking. A few passes with the gun will be a bit cheaper than missiles.
They're talking about using A10s against the minelayers in the strait, which should be fairly obvious targets.

 

[Yew]

I do enjoy the A10 in DCS but this sounds a bit desperate. As the A10 has no radar it must be very difficult to find anything. I suppose you could data link airborne targets from a ground or radar equipped aircraft, but then you could as easily guide another drone or ground based missile on to the target.

I don't think the US has any counter-UAS drones, and guided missiles are more expensive (and limited in supply) that 30mm rounds from an A10

 

[Mogster]

Could be wrong but I really doubt they are routinely using the gun against aerial drones. The rounds are dumb, relatively few per burst reducing hit probability, massively explosive and designed for ground targets.

The A10 can carry a lot of APKWS rockets, individually guided, better suited for the job and safer to use in the air for the A10 pilot and anyone on the ground underneath. It can also carry sidewinders but as others have said above they are very expensive.

Some sort of radar targeting system in a pod would improve things. It could then be moved between radar less aircraft as and when needed.

 

[JamesT]

Could be wrong but I really doubt they are routinely using the gun against aerial drones. The rounds are dumb, relatively few per burst reducing hit probability, massively explosive and designed for ground targets.

The A10 can carry a lot of APKWS rockets, individually guided, better suited for the job and safer to use in the air for the A10 pilot and anyone on the ground underneath. It can also carry sidewinders but as others have said above they are very expensive.

Some sort of radar targeting system in a pod would improve things. It could then be moved between radar less aircraft as and when needed.

I’ve not seen anything suggesting they’re using A10s against aerial drones. They’ve used them against ground sites previously and are talking about using them against boats.

 

[dgl]

I'm half thinking Trump knows he's screwed and that he's got some terminal illness, therefore the war is all about buying himself enough time so that he never gets investigated whilst he is alive. Also that they would never investigate the antics of a dead president, that just wouldn't be right now would it?, therefore gets fully off scot free.

I also think we should now ban the Americans from our bases, if he wants to continue with this distraction we need to protect ourselves as much as possible from repercussions and I think kicking the Americans off our bases would stand us in better stead with the Iranians and they'll direct their anger on the US and Israel.