The Middle East conflict

[Cdd89]

It is right wing propaganda to keep spreading the idea that Iran is a threat to the West.

They're nasty, but so is Russia. And North Korea. And we don't go messing with them.

Before this conflict I understood the argument that goes "leave Iran alone and they'll leave us alone".

However the first thing Iran did upon being attacked by the US was to attack its friendly neighbours who have only ever acted pacifistically toward them. One arm of its leadership then apologised for doing so before another arm attacked them some more.

While I agree that Putin is evil, he is at least rational. That's not the case for Iran's leadership and is reason enough to wish to prevent them from gaining more capabilities.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Before this conflict I understood the argument that goes "leave Iran alone and they'll leave us alone".

However the first thing Iran did upon being attacked by the US was to attack its friendly neighbours who have only ever acted pacifistically toward them. One arm of its leadership then apologised for doing so before another arm attacked them some more.

While I agree that Putin is evil, he is at least rational. That's not the case for Iran's leadership and is reason enough to wish to prevent them from gaining more capabilities.

I'm not sure any of Iran's neighbours could really be described as particularly friendly other than Russia. For the most part diplomatic relations are on the basis of wary tolerance at best. And while Qatar is nominally Shia it is also on good terms with the US. The Iranian regime could be said to have the (alleged) Millwall mentality: everybody hates us and we don't care.

 

[brad465]

I'm not sure any of Iran's neighbours could really be described as particularly friendly other than Russia. For the most part diplomatic relations are on the basis of wary tolerance at best. And while Qatar is nominally Shia it is also on good terms with the US. The Iranian regime could be said to have the (alleged) Millwall mentality: everybody hates us and we don't care.

Iran's geography really helps itself: large and mostly mountainous, thus its regime knows it cannot be invaded easily. This is also why Afghanistan has also been described as the graveyard for empires; guerrilla forces have a huge advantage in mountainous terrain.

 

[martin butler]

IIRC they’re ordering more Eurofighter Typhoons.

As the US gets more entangled in the middle east, so Europe, if it's got any sense should to protect itself, move away from Supporting the US, and Israel, because what they have done, is to ensure there won't ever be peace in the region, that may well have been the plan all along,

Israel needs an enemy a reason for the right to stay in power, the leadership know that,

Iranians, should be the ones who determine their future, I'm sure they have less love for the hard liners that rule them, than we do, but change take time, not bombs, changing minds and hearts, and changing the regime, from within,

 

[nw1]

I can't wait to see them convince the USA that bombing Turkey will be in their interests.

Erdogan is an authoritarian leader and not particularly pleasant. But suggesting that Turkey is "the new Iran" is deranged, paranoid, extremist and very dangerous nonsense. Far-right Israeli politicians like Bennett (see: Far-right politician would be Israel’s next PM in proposed deal) need to be completely ignored, and given zero respect from the West. See also Amichai Eliyahu, the monster who suggested dropping nuclear bombs on Palestine as "one way" of dealing with the situation, and who currently serves as Israeli heritage minister.

 

[edwin_m]

Before this conflict I understood the argument that goes "leave Iran alone and they'll leave us alone".

However the first thing Iran did upon being attacked by the US was to attack its friendly neighbours who have only ever acted pacifistically toward them. One arm of its leadership then apologised for doing so before another arm attacked them some more.

While I agree that Putin is evil, he is at least rational. That's not the case for Iran's leadership and is reason enough to wish to prevent them from gaining more capabilities.

It's an entirely rational strategy for Iran - they can't threaten the USA directly but they can hit them in the pocket via fuel prices, which is what Trump cares about most. The president (who was the one who apologised) has no real power, and with command and control likely to be badly disrupted local units are probably still following the original strategy even if the centre wants to change it.

Invading Ukraine suggests Putin is either irrational or extremely badly advised.

 

[scarby]

The damage to the global economy is a big concern though.

And as so often it's those at the sharp end who take the biggest hit.

Numerous events in the Middle East, such as in the UAE, have been cancelled.

Those working as freelancers or casual workers with zero-hour or no contracts, let's say a photographer who was going to cover an event, have to take that on the chin.

Faced with a loss of income, he decides he can't afford to visit a diesel gala after all. Others facing uncertainty do the same.

Faced with sluggish ticket sales, the heritage railway decides to cut its order of real ale and tells a tiny micro brewery, sorry, but we can't buy from you this year.

For the brewery it's the straw that breaks the camel's back. And it decides it will have to shut down. Because of the war.

 

[nw1]

And as so often it's those at the sharp end who take the biggest hit.

Numerous events in the Middle East, such as in the UAE, have been cancelled.

Those working as freelancers or casual workers with zero-hour or no contracts, let's say a photographer who was going to cover an event, have to take that on the chin.

Faced with a loss of income, he decides he can't afford to visit a diesel gala after all. Others facing uncertainty do the same.

Faced with sluggish ticket sales, the heritage railway decides to cut its order of real ale and tells a tiny micro brewery, sorry, but we can't buy from you this year.

For the brewery it's the straw that breaks the camel's back. And it decides it will have to shut down. Because of the war.

All because of that arrogant, conceited egotist Trump and his brown-nosing toady Hegseth.

The pair of them need to be sued to oblivion for the damage they have caused.

Of course the greedy, manipulative, exploitative oil companies who are doubtless cheering on this conflict will not be hit either. I sometimes wonder whether the prime raison d'etre of the US Government is to increase the wealth of US oil companies, even if the rest of the US, and global, economy suffers.

 

[Railwaycat]

Of course the greedy, manipulative, exploitative oil companies who are doubtless cheering on this conflict will not be hit either. I sometimes wonder whether the prime raison d'etre of the US Government is to increase the wealth of US oil companies, even if the rest of the US, and global, economy suffers.

You've missed the big one - the arms suppliers.

Kerching!

 

[Mogster]

US has lost 11 MQ-9 drones so far during the special operation. These are not cheap…

Confirmed by other sources also.

US loses 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones worth over $330M in war on Iran - TRT World

Officials say the US has lost 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones in Iran, highlighting the risks faced by surveillance drones operating against advanced missile systems.

www.trtworld.com

US loses 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones worth over $330M in war on Iran​

Officials say the US has lost 11 MQ-9 Reaper drones in Iran, highlighting the risks faced by surveillance drones operating against advanced missile systems.

 

[Cdd89]

It's an entirely rational strategy for Iran - they can't threaten the USA directly but they can hit them in the pocket via fuel prices, which is what Trump cares about most. The president (who was the one who apologised) has no real power, and with command and control likely to be badly disrupted local units are probably still following the original strategy even if the centre wants to change it.

Disrupting the strait of Hormuz is obviously a rational response and is one that should have been predicted. This shouldn't be conflated with direct attacks on cities in the UAE and Qatar, which likely were not predicted and is these actions that have hardened me in relation to Iran.

 

[edwin_m]

Disrupting the strait of Hormuz is obviously a rational response and is one that should have been predicted. This shouldn't be conflated with direct attacks on cities in the UAE and Qatar, which likely were not predicted and is these actions that have hardened me in relation to Iran.

They may not have been predicted by Trump but they it was eminently predictable that a country with large stocks of missiles and drones and no other realistic way of hitting back would use them in this way. It may not have been an odds-on priority but it was certainly a credibly foreseeable scenario, but there's not much sign that the US had planned for it.

 

[Cdd89]

They may not have been predicted by Trump but they it was eminently predictable that a country with large stocks of missiles and drones and no other realistic way of hitting back would use them in this way. It may not have been an odds-on priority but it was certainly a credibly foreseeable scenario, but there's not much sign that the US had planned for it.

Well it will certainly be foreseeable for next time. If their response to being attacked is to attack nonaggressor nations within their reach, even when doing so presents no strategic advantage, it strengthens the argument for not allowing them to obtain more damaging weapons, thus retrospectively justifying the actions taken by Israel and the US.

 

[edwin_m]

Well it will certainly be foreseeable for next time. If their response to being attacked is to attack nonaggressor nations within their reach, even when doing so presents no strategic advantage, it strengthens the argument for not allowing them to obtain more damaging weapons, thus retrospectively justifying the actions taken by Israel and the US.

I'd like to think that someone in the world's biggest and most powerful intelligence organisation could have foreseen it this time instead of just fighting the last war. Probably they did but the decision makers just ignored it.

 

[Egg Centric]

Probably they did but the decision makers just ignored it.

Well, why does Bibi care?

 

[edwin_m]

Well, why does Bibi care?

Possibly so. The Netanyahu administration did sign the Abraham accords and was looking to sign others.

 

[PudseyBearHST]

I can't wait to see them convince the USA that bombing Turkey will be in their interests.

Thats just it though, you don’t need to convince the public. If Israel wants war, we will get war because they have that much influence in Western politics and media. Majority of people in the West do not support the Iran war yet we’ve got one anyway.

This is nothing new. In the 1980s, Benjamin Netanyahu bragged about how “we have the (American) senate, the congress and a record strong Jewish Lobby on our side.”
(Clip of above)

JF Kennedy wanted AIPAC to register as a foreign agent which to this day, they still aren’t. He also wanted to investigate Israel for nuclear weapons. After he was assassinated, Israel’s problems were wiped away as his successor LBJ didn’t pursue any of them.

Miriam Adleson donated $250 million dollars to the Trump campaign. In a clip honoring her, Trump said:

She’s got 60 billion in the bank—60 billion! And she loves Israel, I actually asked her—I'm going to get her in trouble with this—but I actually asked her once, I said: So Miriam, I know you love Israel. What do you love more, the United States or Israel? She refused to answer. That means...

(Clip of above)

Larry Ellison, the single biggest private donor to the IDF, owns Paramount, CBS, Tik Tok, CNN, potentially Warner Bros and various other companies, something which Netanyahu brags about.

This is why there is a split in the right wing with some former MAGA commentators/supporters breaking away from Trump including Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens, both who have are very against Israel’s influence in US policies and the Iran war. Charlie Kirk, someone who Netanyahu has been trying to make out was a martyr for Israel was anything but. In a clip not long before he died, he said:

I got to be careful the way I say this to they're going to try to ethnically
cleanse Gaza. I mean that that's and I don't use that term lightly. Okay. They're talking about basically removing 2.5 million people from there. Okay. And honestly, they have a mandate to go seek justice and revenge. They do. There there is there this idea that they need to have a truce or a peace treaty. That's morally crap. After you see women and children be burned alive and dragged to the streets…
So, I've been in Israel many times. The whole country is a fortress.
When I first heard this story (October 7th), I still have the same gut instinct that I did initially. I find this very hard to believe. I've been to that Gaza border. You cannot go 10 ft without running into a 19-year-old with an AR-15 or an automatic machine gun that is an IDF soldier, right? The whole country is surveiled. But I think some questions need to be asked. Was there a standown order?
Was there a standown order?
6 hours. I don't believe it. Israel's the side of New Jersey. When I took a helicopter ride from Jerusalem to the Gaza border, it's 45 minutes. 6 hours.

(Clip of the above)

He would have been very vocal against the Iran war had he been alive today.

 

[nw1]

Larry Ellison, the single biggest private donor to the IDF, owns Paramount, CBS, Tik Tok, CNN, potentially Warner Bros and various other companies, something which Netanyahu brags about.

Larry "Oracle" Ellison? Good grief, I didn't know that; but I've checked and he seems to be a staunch Netanyahu supporter.

 

[martin butler]

Does make you wonder, though, does Mossad work for the Israeli state, or Netanyahu? It seems that there must be some real damaging info being held against many top US politicians, donors, and businessmen why else support what the country is doing which is clearly not in US interests ?.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Thats just it though, you don’t need to convince the public. If Israel wants war, we will get war because they have that much influence in Western politics and media. Majority of people in the West do not support the Iran war yet we’ve got one anyway.

"Bomb Iran or we'll release all the stuff you redacted from the Epstein files"

 

[Cdd89]

If Israel wants war, we will get war because they have that much influence in Western politics and media. Majority of people in the West do not support the Iran war yet we’ve got one anyway.

Rubio did have a counterpoint to this, which is that Israel was going to attack them either way, and Iran would launch retaliatory strikes even on places who didn't attack them, so it was strategically better to join in from the start.

Based on how they have acted toward UK bases within their reach and their neighbours, none of whom joined in initial strikes, I think there is some merit to this statement.

 

[Class73Electro]

Iran says it won't allow 'a single litre of oil' to pass through Strait of Hormuz

Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200 because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised," the spokesman adds.

13:17 at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd70wzw9vqlt

Well this could be fun... :/

 

[edwin_m]

The Saudis are planning to send much of their oil production via a pipeline to a port on the Red Sea. This could then go to Europe via Suez, but for Asia it would have to take its chance with the Houthis.

 

[brad465]

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Iran have said they're not going to the World Cup:

'Largest ever' oil reserve release agreed by 32 countries, as Strait of Hormuz ships attacked

The release of 400 million barrels by members of the International Energy Agency is designed to "address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East".

www.bbc.co.uk

The Iranian Minister of Sports and Youth says the country’s men's national football team is not in a position to participate in the 2026 World Cup.

In an interview with the IRIB Sports Network on Tuesday, Ahmad Donyamali said: "Given that this corrupt government has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances do we have the appropriate conditions to participate in the World Cup.

"Our boys are not safe, and conditions for participation do not exist."

Donyamali added that "over the past eight or nine months, two wars have been imposed on us, and several thousand of our people have been killed and martyred. Therefore, we definitely do not have the possibility for participation."

The head of Iran’s Football Federation also questioned Iran’s ability to participate in the World Cup yesterday, although with a different line of reasoning.

Mehdi Taj - speaking after six members of Iran’s women’s national football team received humanitarian visas from Australia after playing there - said: "Given the problems created for the female footballers, if the World Cup outlook is like this, no sound mind would accept sending the team to the US."

 

[nw1]

Rubio did have a counterpoint to this, which is that Israel was going to attack them either way, and Iran would launch retaliatory strikes even on places who didn't attack them, so it was strategically better to join in from the start.

Based on how they have acted toward UK bases within their reach and their neighbours, none of whom joined in initial strikes, I think there is some merit to this statement.

Except before this happened, Iran rarely bothered UK bases.

 

[Russel]

13:17 at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cd70wzw9vqlt

Well this could be fun... :/

With all the other claims Iran have made over the last week, I wouldn't read too much into this.

 

[PudseyBearHST]

"Bomb Iran or we'll release all the stuff you redacted from the Epstein files"

This clip from comedian and commentator Bassem Yousuf on Piers Morgan Uncensored show made me laugh:

I mean the evidence is there that he is actually a Russian asset. His girlfriend Gileain Maxwell was the daughter of a Musad super spy. He was represented by you Mr. Dorchovitz Israel's favorite lawyer who you're also a lawyer to the Musad which of course everything you tell us will be true. Ehoud Barak was at his place the whole time. He fled to Israel when he was charged with sex crimes and he was pictured wearing an IDF shirt. He was funded by pro-Israel fanatics. He worked for the Rothschild. He donated to pro-Israel student groups. He was responsible for the Wexnerers groups, pro-Israel philanthropy. He supported Israel settlement projects. His friends were all Zionist. He referred to us as Goyam. He was involved in Israel diplomacy effort. He brokered security deals with Israel. And even a former Israeli intelligence officer, you know, Ariashi, like Mr. Ryan Grim said, he said he ran a honey pot for Israel. So yes, of course he was definitely a Russian spy.

(Clip of above)

Rubio did have a counterpoint to this, which is that Israel was going to attack them either way, and Iran would launch retaliatory strikes even on places who didn't attack them, so it was strategically better to join in from the start.

According to former CIA agent, John Kiriakou on the Julian Dorey Daily podcast 3 months ago, he said this about Israel pressure on the US:

The Israelis said for the first time if you don’t bomb Iran to take out these deep bunkers, we’re going to use nuclear weapons… And so Trump said bombing Iran might actually save us from WW3

 

[Mogster]

I assume the nuclear weapons angle would mean using deep penetrating low yield nuclear weapons to destroy Iran’s deep bunkers/storage facilities. Conventional weapons don’t really have the energy for the job.

Options for Targeting Iran’s Fordow Nuclear Facility

There are five main options for targeting Iran’s Fordow facility: the GBU-57, sustained Israeli strikes, sabotage, nuclear weapons, and diplomacy. Each varies in its potential impact on Iran’s nuclear program and carries distinct risks of escalation and response.

www.csis.org

Nuclear Weapons​

While Israel might not have the conventional ordnance to destroy Fordow, it is believed to have the nuclear capability to do so. Numerous Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1987, have stated that Israel will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons to the region, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeated. But if Israel did have low-yield nuclear weapons, these could deliver the necessary firepower to destroy Fordow. For example, the U.S. GBU-57 has a yield of approximately the equivalent of 2 tons of TNT; whereas the lowest yield nuclear weapon was the U.S. Davy Crockett, which had a yield of approximately 10 tons.

 

[nw1]

I assume the nuclear weapons angle would mean using deep penetrating low yield nuclear weapons to destroy Iran’s deep bunkers/storage facilities. Conventional weapons don’t really have the energy for the job.

So what would the side effects of these "low yield nuclear weapons" be?

 

[dgl]

So what would the side effects of these "low yield nuclear weapons" be?

Even more chaos than there is now, and that's saying something!