Step 3 confirmed for 17th May

[GrahamD83]

I'm no expert but if the Indian variant is much more transmissible, it would infect a lot more people at once, and therefore run out of people to infect much quicker. Would this not mean the spikes in cases will be rather short lived and we would reach herd immunity quicker?

Moray is starting to see a fall in cases so this is what could have happened there.

 

[Freightmaster]

I'm no expert but if the Indian variant is much more transmissible, it would infect a lot more people at once, and therefore run out of people to infect much quicker. Would this not mean the spikes in cases will be rather short lived and we would reach herd immunity quicker?

Correct, which is why a more transmissible/less virulent variant is a good thing, despite the media's current panic porn!!




MARK

 

[Domh245]

I'm no expert but if the Indian variant is much more transmissible, it would infect a lot more people at once, and therefore run out of people to infect much quicker. Would this not mean the spikes in cases will be rather short lived and we would reach herd immunity quicker?

Equally means a lot of people potentially requiring treatment at the same time - it won't drag on for months on end, but whilst it goes through the population it might not be pretty.

It's an odd situation as most of the people who are not unvaccinated are not too likely to require hospitalisation, but it's the risk of them catching it and passing it on to a vaccinated person who then could require hospitalisation (vaccines aren't 100% effective) that is probably driving the messaging. The other potential issue is where there are large pockets of unvaccinated people, which obviously increases the risk of a high number of people requiring hospital treatment.

I suspect it'll all come to nothing as even with the localised mini waves we're seeing, there shouldn't be any significant increases in hospitalisations, but if people are a little more cautious between now and June than they might have been, or it leads to more people taking up a vaccine, it's not a bad thing by any means

 

[LAX54]

I'm no expert. But I'd say all this panic and fuss about this is overblown. I'm still confident that hospital admissions and deaths aren't going to surge up out of control again to horrendous levels. I'm still confident that all the hospital stats and deaths across England as a whole will still continue to fall over the coming weeks. Worst case scenario I think will be that they're only marginally higher than the miniscule numbers we have now. And if that's the case, that should be absolutely no justification for delaying the final stage on 21st June.

17 deaths (within the magical 28 days for any reason) and 2000 positives, that are more than likely to be just mild, and possibly not even known had not been tested

Since Jan 2020 for the World (Pop 8 Billion) 160 million 'positive' and 3 million have died.

 

[Domh245]

Since Jan 2020 for the World (Pop 8 Billion) 160 million 'positive' and 3 million have died.

160 million positives, and 3 million deaths - reported. I think it's safe to say that it's an underestimate, particularly from less developed countries without the sort of surveillance that more developed countries have, or where leaders are trying to downplay things (Bolsonaro)

 

[Jonny]

If he does this he might start to earn some respect from me back. We need to stop obsessing around cases and explain clearly that the link to hospitalisations and deaths is broken.


Keep in mind though this is the sort of advice government are being given. This is modeling from Warwick looking at hospitalisations under various increased transmitability scenarios published last week. They are modelling peaks in the middle of summer that are higher than January when hardly anyone was vaccinated!

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984533/S1229_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf

It seems that someone has been ^expecting^ a third wave for a while, based on this government document, included in the same set provided:
Index page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ing-restrictions-roadmap-step-2-31-march-2021
Main report: https://assets.publishing.service.g...ing_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf See page 10/Paragraph 32
Before anyone calls "conspiracy", this is the UK Government website and is in the open - so it cannot be a conspiracy by definition.

<sarcasm> I am looking forward to being blamed as one of those declining the vaccine. </sarcasm> Why risk a treatment that is barely out of phase 3 trials when my individual-adjusted risk is minimal?

Sturgeon has decided to reimpose an 'essential only' travel ban in and out of both Moray and Glasgow due to a rise in cases, and each of these areas will not be moving down a level along with the rest of Scotland until their cases fall.

That could be very contentious legally, especially if it stays high and people decline to be vaccinated. It's not the same Section 45E in England, but ISTR that Schedule 19 in the 2020 Coronavirus Act makes provision for Scotland using the same words.

I'm no expert. But I'd say all this panic and fuss about this is overblown. I'm still confident that hospital admissions and deaths aren't going to surge up out of control again to horrendous levels. I'm still confident that all the hospital stats and deaths across England as a whole will still continue to fall over the coming weeks. Worst case scenario I think will be that they're only marginally higher than the miniscule numbers we have now. And if that's the case, that should be absolutely no justification for delaying the final stage on 21st June.

If it is attributable to people declining vaccination, then restrictions under Section 45A etc. (Public Health Act 1984 as amended) in England or the equivalents elsewhere (the Government's Choice of Enabling Act so far) could be seen as "punishment restrictions" that are intended to impose an explicitly unlawful requirement to receive vaccination, and become unenforceable that way.

 

[cuccir]

I'm no expert but if the Indian variant is much more transmissible, it would infect a lot more people at once, and therefore run out of people to infect much quicker. Would this not mean the spikes in cases will be rather short lived and we would reach herd immunity quicker?

Moray is starting to see a fall in cases so this is what could have happened there.

This is a really nice point. Yes, i've seen some people suggest that moderate wave now actually could be beneficial in avoiding anything in the Autumn, insofar as it has exactly this effect of pushing immunity up. It's all a question of presumptions about infection rates and acquired immunity so it's not a guaranteed outcome, but it's a plausible route for the disease, yes.

On balance, I'd be 'watchful but not worried' about this varient. So far there's no evidence that it escapes the vaccine [added in edit - more than any other variant], at least for hospitalizations/deaths. Equally, there's not yet been sufficient infections to say conclusively that it won't be more vaccine resistant. That it is more transmissible I think is beyond doubt. In 2-3 weeks time we should know for sure whether or not it is likely to cause severe infection among vaccinated people. There's nothing to suggest it will, but I'm afraid it's a case of waiting - I think we need to be patient. The move to complete over 50 vaccination and faciliate surge vaccination seems a reasonable 'just-in-case' measure right now.

Hopefully it won't delay June 21st. If it does, I'd be surprised if it did by more than a month. What we really should be asking is why England, Scotland & Northern Ireland have not vaccinated at the rate Wales has. If we had, we might not even be seeing the moderate problems we're getting now. If Wales can do it, rUK could have done.

 

[londonteacher]

What we really should be asking is why England, Scotland & Northern Ireland have not vaccinated at the rate Wales has. If we had, we might not even be seeing the moderate problems we're getti

Not an expert, and it doesn't explain Northern Ireland, but could it be to do with the population sizes. Although it is going really slow recently...

 

[LAX54]

160 million positives, and 3 million deaths - reported. I think it's safe to say that it's an underestimate, particularly from less developed countries without the sort of surveillance that more developed countries have, or where leaders are trying to downplay things (Bolsonaro)

But then the World Pop could be 9 or10 Billion and not 8

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2021 ==

Correct, which is why a more transmissible/less virulent variant is a good thing, despite the media's current panic porn!!




MARK

If we keep running away, it will never end !

 

[liam456]

Didn’t Israel at one point see a slight upward trend (or flattening of the downward trend) during their unlocking earlier in the season, through which they persevered and are now in a pretty great place?

 

[chris11256]

Didn’t Israel at one point see a slight upward trend (or flattening of the downward trend) during their unlocking earlier in the season, through which they persevered and are now in a pretty great place?

They did which is why I think we really do need to wait & see, rather than panic ourselves back into total lockdown. What we need to do instead is speed up there vaccine rollout.

 

[Bald Rick]

As ever, the key measure will be Hospital occupancy. No doubt in my mind that if that remains at around current levels (or even a touch higher) and broadly stable in a month’s time, then we’ll still be good for step 4.

There will be some very close attention being paid to hospital admissions in areas where cases of the Indian variant have increased.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

I think this sums things up nicely:

"Brace yourselves, the Zero Covid cult will be throwing everything at this next five weeks and they won't care whose mental health they destroy. They are like Bolivia getting to the World Cup final. They'll never get this chance again so they have to make the most of it."
-Sam Street on Twitter

 

[greyman42]

I think this sums things up nicely:

"Brace yourselves, the Zero Covid cult will be throwing everything at this next five weeks and they won't care whose mental health they destroy. They are like Bolivia getting to the World Cup final. They'll never get this chance again so they have to make the most of it."
-Sam Street on Twitter

I am sure your right but it is going to come down to hospitalisations, regardless of what the lunatics want.

 

[kez19]

I think this sums things up nicely:

"Brace yourselves, the Zero Covid cult will be throwing everything at this next five weeks and they won't care whose mental health they destroy. They are like Bolivia getting to the World Cup final. They'll never get this chance again so they have to make the most of it."
-Sam Street on Twitter

Quite believe that actually!

 

[bramling]

I think this sums things up nicely:

"Brace yourselves, the Zero Covid cult will be throwing everything at this next five weeks and they won't care whose mental health they destroy. They are like Bolivia getting to the World Cup final. They'll never get this chance again so they have to make the most of it."
-Sam Street on Twitter

About right unfortunately. I think we’re at the point where enough people have properly had enough though. I’d say majority opinion is more likely, if anything, to ask questions about whether borders are secure enough.

 

[yorksrob]

Reading the gloomy warnings on the news makes me think that the electorate hasn't given the Establishment a strong enough anti-lockdown message. I fear that the newly emboldened Government may feel more encouraged to backtrack on its easing. The phrase "tough choices" is always bad news when its trotted out because its always the same people who have no say in, yet bear the brunt of those "tough choices"

 

[Socanxdis]

Brazil variant, South Africa variant, India variant, who's next?

 

[bramling]

Reading the gloomy warnings on the news makes me think that the electorate hasn't given the Establishment a strong enough anti-lockdown message. I fear that the newly emboldened Government may feel more encouraged to backtrack on its easing. The phrase "tough choices" is always bad news when its trotted out because its always the same people who have no say in, yet bear the brunt of those "tough choices"

Yes it does rather seem that the recent elections have given Boris a bit of a “carry on as you’ve been doing” message.

Goodness knows how we ended up with that, and to be honest I think it’s more because all the parties are essentially offering the same - indeed Labour’s position is even more muddled.

In the absence of an anti-lockdown candidate I spoiled my ballot papers. It’s a shame that there isn’t the option to write a message in such situations, which then gets recorded somewhere and fed back.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes it does rather seem that the recent elections have given Boris a bit of a “carry on as you’ve been doing” message.

Goodness knows how we ended up with that, and to be honest I think it’s more because all the parties are essentially offering the same - indeed Labour’s position is even more muddled.

In the absence of an anti-lockdown candidate I spoiled my ballot papers. It’s a shame that there isn’t the option to write a message in such situations, which then gets recorded somewhere and fed back.

Indeed. I spoilt my local election paper as well.

I see on the BBC website (sorry - can't quote as I'm on a mobile phone) that the British Medical Associations are raising "serious concerns" about the monday easing. They need to be robustly contradicted.

 

[bramling]

Indeed. I spoilt my local election paper as well.

I see on the BBC website (sorry - can't quote as I'm on a mobile phone) that the British Medical Associations are raising "serious concerns" about the monday easing. They need to be robustly contradicted.

It does seem like there’s an answer to everything.

If it’s not the risk of “terrifying new variants” then it’s “the vaccine isn’t 100% effective”, and if it’s not that then there’s always “the vaccine might stop working”.

I’m not sure what these people want to achieve. If we’re going to all be cooped up indoors forever more then we might as well curl up now.

Of course, there’s the cynical view that many of these people are prepared to trade off aspects of their life in order to maintain the current zombie lifestyle but which permits them not to have to do things they used to have to do in order to earn a living...

I’m sick of it - getting quite depressed now especially with the current miserable weather. So much that I want to do, and for one reason or another can’t viably do it.

 

[yorksrob]

It does seem like there’s an answer to everything.

If it’s not the risk of “terrifying new variants” then it’s “the vaccine isn’t 100% effective”, and if it’s not that then there’s always “the vaccine might stop working”.

I’m not sure what these people want to achieve. If we’re going to all be cooped up indoors forever more then we might as well curl up now.

Of course, there’s the cynical view that many of these people are prepared to trade off aspects of their life in order to maintain the current zombie lifestyle but which permits them not to have to do things they used to have to do in order to earn a living...

I’m sick of it - getting quite depressed now especially with the current miserable weather. So much that I want to do, and for one reason or another can’t viably do it.

I know the feeling.

What would be good would be for SAGE to counteract the siren voices calling for extended lockdown and to be outlining how other actions such as bringing forward second jabs in the areas with increases will help to alleviate the situation.

 

[Silver Cobra]

I know this is being very pessimistic, but I wouldn't be surprised if at 10pm tomorrow, someone like Boris Johnson or Matt Hancock posts on Twitter that Monday's easing of restrictions has been cancelled/postponed. I sincerely hope it is me just being overly pessimistic and this doesn't happen, but it wouldn't be the first time for a last-minute u-turn by the government.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I know this is being very pessimistic, but I wouldn't be surprised if at 10pm tomorrow, someone like Boris Johnson or Matt Hancock posts on Twitter that Monday's easing of restrictions has been cancelled/postponed. I sincerely hope it is me just being overly pessimistic and this doesn't happen, but it wouldn't be the first time for a last-minute u-turn by the government.

It's possible but it feels too late for that kind of move now. At worst they might make a hasty announcement that Bolton (maybe Blackburn too) won't be seeing any easings, but even that seems unlikely.

There's a lot of anger in Glasgow about their easings being postponed with a few days' notice. If that happened across all of England (including many areas with miniscule rates) at a few hours' notice, it'd provoke an even bigger reaction.

 

[westv]

I know this is being very pessimistic, but I wouldn't be surprised if at 10pm tomorrow, someone like Boris Johnson or Matt Hancock posts on Twitter that Monday's easing of restrictions has been cancelled/postponed. I sincerely hope it is me just being overly pessimistic and this doesn't happen, but it wouldn't be the first time for a last-minute u-turn by the government.

I'll bet 100% that that won't happen.

 

[greyman42]

I know this is being very pessimistic, but I wouldn't be surprised if at 10pm tomorrow, someone like Boris Johnson or Matt Hancock posts on Twitter that Monday's easing of restrictions has been cancelled/postponed. I sincerely hope it is me just being overly pessimistic and this doesn't happen, but it wouldn't be the first time for a last-minute u-turn by the government.

I can't see that happening as the "problem" with the Indian variant is only an issue with a tiny part of the country at the moment.

 

[bramling]

I can't see that happening as the "problem" with the Indian variant is only an issue with a tiny part of the country at the moment.

The trouble is we were at that point around Christmas time when we were jesting about how the "new improved" Kent variant apparently had built in GPS such that it didn't go north of Watford Gap!

In reality unfortunately facts don't really make much impact on this, there's too many ulterior agendas IMO. Thankfully I do think enough people have had enough, that Boris will probably pin his card to the "open up" mast this time.

 

[MikeWM]

The regulations have (today) been laid for ‘step 3’ from Monday so pretty certain they’re not going to change that now.

Interestingly, they also amend the ‘masks on public transport’ regulations, so they expire on June 20th rather than June 14th. Make of that what you will!

 

[Jonny]

The regulations have (today) been laid for ‘step 3’ from Monday so pretty certain they’re not going to change that now.

Interestingly, they also amend the ‘masks on public transport’ regulations, so they expire on June 20th rather than June 14th. Make of that what you will!

I was wondering what they would do about that one. Perhaps it is synchronisation. They cannot justify keeping them on longer, and the longer they do go on, the closer they come to looking like an unlawful requirement to receive vaccination.

 

[bramling]

I was wondering what they would do about that one. Perhaps it is synchronisation. They cannot justify keeping them on longer, and the longer they do go on, the closer they come to looking like an unlawful requirement to receive vaccination.

There also comes a point where compliance is going to drop sufficient low that it calls into question whether a law should exist which isn't respected by most. Lots of people, especially groups, slip off their masks once on the train, especially DOO ones.