Step 3 confirmed for 17th May

[bramling]

I just think it will be local lockdowns with places like Bolton.
Hancock didn't rule this out earlier.

Must say I’m a bit uncomfortable with any idea of local lockdowns. It feels like deja-vu of last year all over again.

We *have* to move on.

 

[duncanp]

Hopefully next weeks easing won't be postponed. I'm not so fussed about the June easings being strung out a bit.

The BBC article referenced in post no. 83 has the following sentence

The BBC's senior political reporter Matt Cole said sources told him that while England was still expected to move to stage three of the roadmap out of lockdown on 17 May and the PM is thought to have signed off some reduction in social distancing measures. a politically difficult rethink may now be under consideration.

The fact that "sources" have told the BBC that stage 3 is still expected to go ahead is significant, as it means that it is more likely than not that Stage 3 is still on track.

Boris was also quoted at lunchtime today saying that he sees "..nothing in the data which dissuades me from thinking that we can go ahead on Monday as planned..." or words to that effect.

 

[yorksrob]

The BBC article referenced in post no. 83 has the following sentence



The fact that "sources" have told the BBC that stage 3 is still expected to go ahead is significant, as it means that it is more likely than not that Stage 3 is still on track.

Boris was also quoted at lunchtime today saying that he sees "..nothing in the data which dissuades me from thinking that we can go ahead on Monday as planned..." or words to that effect.

That is a positive. They need to keep to it.

 

[greyman42]

From my point of view, I choose a cold over seeing people with half a face but others will disagree.

I agree and it gives the immune system a run out.

 

[Class 33]

Hopefully next weeks easing won't be postponed. I'm not so fussed about the June easings being strung out a bit.

Looking very likely that next weeks easing won't be delayed/called off, thank goodness. Otherwise I'm sure we would have had news by now.

I'm hoping like mad though that the 21st June easing won't be delayed/called off. The end of social distancing, the end of having to wear these ridiculous face masks*, the end of all these annoying PA messages telling us we "Must socially distance" and we "MUST wear face masks". Also festivals able to go ahead at long last. This just can't come soon enough. I've been waiting over 14 months for this! As things stand though, there is just no valid acceptable justification as to why the 21st June stage should be delayed/called off. I'm pretty sure that by the review date of 14th June, hospitalizations and deaths will not have surged up, in fact by then I'm pretty sure they should be even lower than what they are now.

* Yes I know, recent reports are that face masks may have to still be worn on public transport after 21st June. But interestingly, social distancing is to be relaxed and capacity increased on buses from 17th May.

 

[Ianno87]

Must say I’m a bit uncomfortable with any idea of local lockdowns. It feels like deja-vu of last year all over again.

We *have* to move on.

Even in Bolton, it seems pretty "contained" within certain areas.

 

[Trackman]

Even in Bolton, it seems pretty "contained" within certain areas.

Today’s figures below, it does seem to be contained on a larger scale. Although it has highest rate in the UK now, it doesn’t seem to be spreading (for now).

 

[brad465]

Must say I’m a bit uncomfortable with any idea of local lockdowns. It feels like deja-vu of last year all over again.

We *have* to move on.

Whether anything becomes of this or not remains to be seen, but unfortunately the Government are not ruling them out (but at the same time saying there's nothing to stop next week's national easing):

Indian variant: Second jabs could be brought forward to tackle rise

Local restrictions have also not been ruled out in areas worst affected by the Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

Local and regional restrictions to tackle the Indian Covid variant cannot be ruled out, the government has said, as it expressed concern over the speed of the variant's spread in England.

It said "economic and social" restrictions could be reimposed in parts of England if necessary.

Measures could also include bringing forward second vaccines for some people in the worst affected areas.

Public Health England has recorded 1,313 UK cases of the Indian variant.

The figures released on Thursday are more than double the 520 cases recorded by PHE up to 5 May.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said there was "no firm evidence yet to show this variant has any greater impact on severity of disease or evades the vaccine".

But it also said ministers "cannot rule out re-imposing economic and social restrictions at a local or regional level if evidence suggests they are necessary to contain or suppress a variant which escapes the vaccine".

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the government was supporting areas where cases were rising and urged people to "continue to be vigilant".

"We are monitoring the situation very carefully and will not hesitate to take further action if necessary," he said.

Earlier, Prime Minister Boris Johnson did not rule out reintroducing regional restrictions, saying: "It is a variant of concern, we are anxious about it."

But he added there was no evidence to suggest England's planned lockdown easing could not go ahead.

The next major easing of restrictions will take place on 17 May.

I suspect there will be large outrage if local restrictions were reintroduced, even in large areas unaffected, given all the trouble and fears that will be created. Also if Bolton was subjected to them, one of the two MPs there is Tory, so doubt this will go down well in backbench circles (the 1922 committee chair's seat is also within Greater Manchester).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I suspect there will be large outrage if local restrictions were reintroduced, even in large areas unaffected, given all the trouble and fears that will be created. Also if Bolton was subjected to them, one of the two MPs there is Tory, so doubt this will go down well in backbench circles (the 1922 committee chair's seat is also within Greater Manchester).

There will be but with prevalence at such low levels across the majority of the country it shouldn't be ruled out as an option to contain localised outbreaks vs putting the whole country on hold although I not expecting next Mondays changed to be amended. Given the Indian variant is known about they would have run scenarios about case creep and the likes of Whitty/JVT would have been pressuring Hancock as there proxy to stall step 3 and that hasn't happened. Data already shows the vaccinated older age groups in Bolton are not the ones testing positive so they will let it run if nothing more its live experiment as well so provides useful data to inform long term management.

 

[Huntergreed]

I suspect there will be large outrage if local restrictions were reintroduced, even in large areas unaffected, given all the trouble and fears that will be created. Also if Bolton was subjected to them, one of the two MPs there is Tory, so doubt this will go down well in backbench circles (the 1922 committee chair's seat is also within Greater Manchester).

It's happened in Moray, including hospitality curfews being extended (they're not being eased unlike the rest of Scotland) and 'essential travel only' being reimposed. Nobody seems to be particularly fussed about it up here.

 

[takno]

It's happened in Moray, including hospitality curfews being extended (they're not being eased unlike the rest of Scotland) and 'essential travel only' being reimposed. Nobody seems to be particularly fussed about it up here.

I was never particularly fussed about Moray if I'm honest. If they try to shaft Edinburgh or Glasgow again I think the response might be a tad less muted

 

[Journeyman]

I was never particularly fussed about Moray if I'm honest. If they try to shaft Edinburgh or Glasgow again I think the response might be a tad less muted

I don't know, right now it feels like Sturgeon can do no wrong. If she murdered your granny on live TV, it feels like noone would bat an eyelid.

 

[Scotrail12]

I don't know, right now it feels like Sturgeon can do no wrong. If she murdered your granny on live TV, it feels like noone would bat an eyelid.

Looking at the responses on Twitter to the news about increasing Glasgow cases, the responses were quite different to the end of last year - then, it was “save lives, everyone is so selfish!” but it's now “FFS, I can’t be bothered doing this any more”. There were some of the vocal Sturgeon fans mouthing off but most of them were to do with wanting to cancel football celebrations (which was really little to do with COVID) than actively wanting more restrictions. Obviously still a handful of nutters (argued with quite a few of them) but way less than before so I don't think the response to restrictions would be all that positive.

There are some vaccine efficacy deniers who are trying to ignore the positives of the vaccine to stay in their cosy lockdown lives but I do think the majority bought into the return to normality post vaccine and would be quite angry if that wasn't true.

 

[kez19]

"Prime Minister Boris Johnson has already indicated that more disease and death is inevitable"

And the sun will rise tomorrow morning, a footballer will be overpaid at some point, and a Northern train will be late.

I don't want to live in a world cowering from the inevitability of illness and death.

Does that mean we have someone coming round making sense of the situation than bowing down to it?

 

[duncanp]

The Telegraph is reporting that Boris Johnson is to push ahead with the reopening on Monday despite the rise in cases.

See my post in the Support Conversation thread.

He must have realised the political coup it would give Nicola Sturgeon if it turned out that Scotland was going ahead with easing lockdown on Monday and England wasn't. Not to mention how stupid it would make him look, and the absolute roasting he would get from his own backbenchers.

 

[Smidster]

I wouldn't worry - there really is nothing to suggest that Monday would be called off.

That being said it wouldn't amaze me if stage 4 was pushed a couple of weeks to give you a little more time to increase vaccination coverage - basically you would do stage 4 say 2 weeks (or whatever minimum to get some protection) after everyone has been offered the shot.

Know I am not a shining example but we all need to read the news less. Reacting to every story or scientist really can't be good for us and ultimately we have no control over what happens.

 

[yorksrob]

There will be but with prevalence at such low levels across the majority of the country it shouldn't be ruled out as an option to contain localised outbreaks vs putting the whole country on hold although I not expecting next Mondays changed to be amended. Given the Indian variant is known about they would have run scenarios about case creep and the likes of Whitty/JVT would have been pressuring Hancock as there proxy to stall step 3 and that hasn't happened. Data already shows the vaccinated older age groups in Bolton are not the ones testing positive so they will let it run if nothing more its live experiment as well so provides useful data to inform long term management.

It shouldn't be "either/or" with regard to local and national lockdown.

If the varient is concerning enough for them to contemplate lockdown, they should be increasing vaccinations in those places instead.

 

[nedchester]

From the article below:

"In Bolton, the areas with the highest infections over the last week map very closely to areas with the lowest vaccination rates."

Indian variant: What's causing the spike in Bolton?

The town has seen a sharp spike in Covid cases - driven by the emergence of the Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

As I have said before if you don't take the vaccine and get ill then tough luck. The rest of us shouldn't be restricted because of this.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From the article below:

"In Bolton, the areas with the highest infections over the last week map very closely to areas with the lowest vaccination rates."

Indian variant: What's causing the spike in Bolton?

The town has seen a sharp spike in Covid cases - driven by the emergence of the Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

As I have said before if you don't take the vaccine and get ill then tough luck. The rest of us shouldn't be restricted because of this.

If only it were that simple. The problem is some of the people will be hospitalised and thats a bed for someone else's operation or worse hospitals get put on Covid alert and everything stops. Perhaps we should have a mobile field hospital unit that manages these situations so local services aren't overburdened.

 

[duncanp]

Perhaps we should have a mobile field hospital unit that manages these situations so local services aren't overburdened.

That's a good idea.

Perhaps we could call them "Nightingale" hospitals, and have several of them around the country.

Oh wait......

 

[Jimini]

Press conference with Boris and Whitty at 1700 tonight...

 

[galwhv69]

Press conference with Boris and Whitty at 1700 tonight...

So more like 1745?

 

[HSTEd]

As someone who lives in Manchester, I expect a punishment lockdown for daring to reelect Burnham

 

[westv]

As someone who lives in Manchester, I expect a punishment lockdown for daring to reelect Burnham

BoJo no go ho ho?

 

[brad465]

Press conference with Boris and Whitty at 1700 tonight...

I don't see anything regarding changes to restrictions being announced, as given press leakage we'd know about at least some of the details by now.

As someone who lives in Manchester, I expect a punishment lockdown for daring to reelect Burnham

Potentially, although at the same time Greater Manchester has 9 Tory MPs, including Sir Graham Brady the 1922 Committee chair, and one of the other Tory MPs has one of the two Bolton constituencies, so any local restrictions there won't go down well with the Tory Party.

 

[GB]

Press conference with Boris and Whitty at 1700 tonight...

Yep, and guarantee due to the Indian variant they will announce a delay to unlocking!

 

[Smidster]

Don't worry - All sources are clear there is no change to the plan.

For once this actually seems a good idea for Bozo - There is a lot of fear about this variant and so better to come out and talk about it and be clear about why it isn't going to impact unlocking. He may also announce stuff like surge vaccines for some areas which would probably be a good thing (though of course not much good in the immediate term)

 

[Mike395]

Yes my thinking is that there's going to be no about-turn for Monday, relatively confident Mark Drakeford wouldn't have announced Welsh restrictions loosening a short while ago if there was any chance of them being cancelled in England.

Expecting the main announcement will be vaccination-related with a shift in focus to hotspots.

 

[nedchester]

Don't worry - All sources are clear there is no change to the plan.

For once this actually seems a good idea for Bozo - There is a lot of fear about this variant and so better to come out and talk about it and be clear about why it isn't going to impact unlocking. He may also announce stuff like surge vaccines for some areas which would probably be a good thing (though of course not much good in the immediate term)

I agree that this is probably the case. The media have been giving out the "fear porn" in bucket loads over the past 48 hours and maybe it needs calming down.

 

[initiation]

There is a lot of fear about this variant and so better to come out and talk about it and be clear about why it isn't going to impact unlocking.

If he does this he might start to earn some respect from me back. We need to stop obsessing around cases and explain clearly that the link to hospitalisations and deaths is broken.


Keep in mind though this is the sort of advice government are being given. This is modeling from Warwick looking at hospitalisations under various increased transmitability scenarios published last week. They are modelling peaks in the middle of summer that are higher than January when hardly anyone was vaccinated!

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984533/S1229_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Steps_3_and_4.pdf