Step 3 confirmed for 17th May

[Domh245]

Keep in mind though this is the sort of advice government are being given. This is modeling from Warwick looking at hospitalisations under various increased transmitability scenarios published last week. They are modelling peaks in the middle of summer that are higher than January when hardly anyone was vaccinated!

They're also assuming far fewer restrictions than we had in January. Also note that it's transmission relative to B.1.1.7. (kent variant) - which was 50% more transmissible than wild-type SARS-CoV-2 - an extra 50% transmissibility on top of the kent variant would be a highly infectious disease, which is why even with high vaccine coverage (/immunity) but minimal restrictions you'd end up with high numbers of hospitalisations - just the law of big numbers at work

 

[HSTEd]

Keep in mind though this is the sort of advice government are being given. This is modeling from Warwick looking at hospitalisations under various increased transmitability scenarios published last week. They are modelling peaks in the middle of summer that are higher than January when hardly anyone was vaccinated!

Perhaps in rate of hospitalisation, but in total hospital capacity consumption the peaks are highly likely to be similar or better than January.

The spike is over too quickly because it runs out of people to infect.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yep, and guarantee due to the Indian variant they will announce a delay to unlocking!

Guarantee is a big word. How much do you want to bet?

 

[Class 33]

Yep, and guarantee due to the Indian variant they will announce a delay to unlocking!

Word is that the 17th May easing next week will NOT be delayed.

And then the next and final stage after that is 21st June. I don't think for a minute that they're going to announce this far ahead that that will be delayed. The review date for that is 14th June. And by then the hospital and deaths stats should be even better/lower than they are now. This is what they really need to be fixating on, not this case numbers and infection rate malarky again. The link between cases leading to hospital numbers and deaths has been broken! So there would be absolutely no valid justification whatsoever for that to be delayed. If hospital admissions and deaths start surging up out of control, that's another matter, but that is just highly highly unlikely.

 

[nedchester]

Word is that the 17th May easing next week will NOT be delayed.

And then the next and final stage after that is 21st June. I don't think for a minute that they're going to announce this far ahead that that will be delayed. The review date for that is 14th June. And by then the hospital and deaths stats should be even better/lower than they are now. This is what they really need to be fixating on, not this case numbers and infection rate malarky again. The link between cases leading to hospital numbers and deaths has been broken! So there would be absolutely no valid justification whatsoever for that to be delayed. If hospital admissions and deaths start surging up out of control, that's another matter, but that is just highly highly unlikely.

If it is amongst those who have refused the vaccine (for whatever reason) then there's no reason for June 21st not to happen either.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I heard a rumour about the substantial meal coming back but I think that's just wibble.

 

[Bald Rick]

The review date for that is 14th June. And by then the hospital and deaths stats should be even better/lower than they are now.

Deaths, probably, hospitals, not so sure. But it won’t be much different.

 

[roversfan2001]

I heard a rumour about the substantial meal coming back but I think that's just wibble.

Was that not abandoned because the Government admitted there was absolutely zero scientific backing to it when the hospitality industry challenged them on it?

 

[yorksrob]

I heard a rumour about the substantial meal coming back but I think that's just wibble.

Was that not abandoned because the Government admitted there was absolutely zero scientific backing to it when the hospitality industry challenged them on it?

Not to mention the fact that the area concerned in Bolton apparently has little hospitality industry anyway.

If they did try that, I would hope for (finally) some tough questioning in parliament.

 

[Class 33]

An article from The Telegraph....

Government urged to ‘hold nerve’ over Indian variant and release lockdown as planned​

Health expert Prof Robert Dingwall says ministers should refrain from ‘unnecessary, demoralising’ anti-Covid measures that won’t work

BySarah Knapton, SCIENCE EDITOR14 May 2021 • 1:32pm

People queue at a vaccination centre at the Essa Academy in Bolton. The Indian Covid variant has been detected in a number of areas including Bolton, which are reporting the highest rates of infection, data suggests CREDIT: PA

The Government must "hold its nerve" and carry on with the lockdown release because there is little evidence that the Indian Covid variant is causing a major problem, a public health expert has said.
Speaking in a personal capacity, Prof Robert Dingwall, who sits on the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation, said local lockdowns and surge testing would do little to stop the variant.
Although cases of the Indian variant are rising, there is no evidence that the mutated virus is any more deadly.
Data from Public Health England show there have been just four deaths linked to the mutation and it is believed that, while the virus may be spreading quickly in younger, unvaccinated groups, it is not so far causing serious disease.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) met to discuss the variant on Thursday and is expected to make recommendations to the Government this week.
Prof Dingwall said: "The Government needs to hold its nerve rather than allow itself to be pushed to measures that are unnecessary, demoralising and won't work. The evidence just isn't there yet. We have reports from India that vaccinated people, like medical workers, aren't getting the infection.
"Given that it's typically seven days to symptomatic infection, the Indian variant has been around long enough for hotspot communities to be seeing a rise in admissions, but we haven't seen any uptick. We have a rise in reported infections, but that does not seem to be translating into hospitalisations."

Prof Dingwall also questioned whether proposals such as local lockdowns or surge vaccination programmes would be beneficial, but said very localised vaccination programmes may help.
"There is considerable doubt about whether there is any point in surge vaccination because that would not have any impact for three to four weeks, and you massively disrepute the national programme to achieve it," he added.
"And many of the 'hot spots' have been in lockdown for months without much evidence of benefit, probably due to limited compliance. If anything has value, it is probably intensive effort at ward or postcode level, possibly using the flexibility already in the national rollout to offer vaccinations to all adults.
"The problem here is the conflation of transmission with severity and the consequent pressure to be seen to 'do something'. A third of the UK population is now fully vaccinated and almost 60 per cent has one shot, which is giving a higher protection."

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that overall infection rates are continuing to fall.
In England, in the week ending May 8, the ONS estimates around 40,800 had an infection or one in 1,340 people, down from one in 1,180 in the previous week.
Sarah Crofts, the head of analytical outputs for the Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: "It's encouraging that infection rates continue to head in the right direction. In England, infections are now below four per cent of the level seen at the start of the year.
"It is really important that we continue to closely monitor infection rates as further lifting of lockdown restrictions take place."
However the King's ZOE symptom tracker app, which has been monitoring infections since the start of the pandemic and tends to be ahead of trends in the ONS data, has found a 65 per cent increase in figures from the previous week.
The team estimates there are currently 2,782 new daily symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK on average, based on swab test data from up to five days ago, compared to 1,685 daily cases a week ago.
Tim Spector OBE, the principal investigator on the ZOE Covid Study app, said: "While the increase in cases this week is likely to be real, the overall numbers are still just a fraction of what they were at the height of the pandemic.
"Increases of this size are to be expected with changes in social behaviour as restriction ease. We are also seeing milder forms of Covid-19 within vaccinated groups and younger people presenting with much less respiratory problems than previously."

 

[Darandio]

After months of searching, Prof Robert Dingwall is one Professor I actually like.

 

[Huntergreed]

Sturgeon has decided to reimpose an 'essential only' travel ban in and out of both Moray and Glasgow due to a rise in cases, and each of these areas will not be moving down a level along with the rest of Scotland until their cases fall.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Sturgeon has decided to reimpose an 'essential only' travel ban in and out of both Moray and Glasgow due to a rise in cases, and each of these areas will not be moving down a level along with the rest of Scotland until their cases fall.

I'm headed to the Borders and Edinburgh next week so I'm spared!

 

[NorthOxonian]

I'm headed to the Borders and Edinburgh next week so I'm spared!

I had planned a trip to Ayrshire and Glasgow for a couple of weeks time - I suspect that'll have to shift to the Borders now.

 

[westv]

So more like 1745?

So close.

 

[greyman42]

I had planned a trip to Ayrshire and Glasgow for a couple of weeks time - I suspect that'll have to shift to the Borders now.

It depends on what you had planned. I was travelling all over the country from the end of February and no one said a word.

 

[Mike395]

Don't worry - All sources are clear there is no change to the plan.

For once this actually seems a good idea for Bozo - There is a lot of fear about this variant and so better to come out and talk about it and be clear about why it isn't going to impact unlocking. He may also announce stuff like surge vaccines for some areas which would probably be a good thing (though of course not much good in the immediate term)

Looks like that's pretty spot-on. Aside from his 'am I really being made to do this at 5pm on a Friday?' demeanour, I thought the actual message was generally on-point. (Though with some caution about changes in the coming weeks if data changes significantly)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

BoJo confirms no change not even in Bolton. Just tells people to be sensible and get your jab. Also will bring forward 2nd jab to 8weeks.

Whitty a bit more circumspect about the future but confirms that those vaccinated aren't materially impacted by the Indian variant so i'd say he's not yet minded to change course.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Sturgeon has decided to reimpose an 'essential only' travel ban in and out of both Moray and Glasgow due to a rise in cases, and each of these areas will not be moving down a level along with the rest of Scotland until their cases fall.

So how am I going to get from Carlisle to Fort William in June?

 

[Ian Cunningham]

Sturgeon has decided to reimpose an 'essential only' travel ban in and out of both Moray and Glasgow due to a rise in cases, and each of these areas will not be moving down a level along with the rest of Scotland until their cases fall.

I suspect that might only be a week or two for Moray as their case-rate seems to have peaked and is now in sharp decline. Glasgow may take longer as it's on quite a steep rise at the moment but the incidence is very patchy with some areas <10 per 100000 and some over 1000 per 100000

I've still not heard any explanation as to how Moray had such a spike in a relatively rural region - East Lothian is not dissimilar in it's semi-rural nature but has had a consistently low rate for weeks now (Moray peaked at over 25x our rate)

 

[LAX54]

So did I get that right, they are now back-peddling on the June 21st date ?

seems he was asked how likely it is that the final unlocking of restrictions in England will happen on 21 June.

PM said he can't say "for certain". Numbers of infections remain "low" across the country, he adds, and the situation is different from last year because of vaccines.

People will have to "wait and see" whether the new variant is more transmissible and wait for more evidence that vaccines have cut risks of hospitalisations and deaths.

But I thought they said a week or more ago, that it was more 'transmissable', but the vaccines we have a good for it, and it is not a severe varient ?

 

[Journeyman]

So how am I going to get from Carlisle to Fort William in June?

You've always been allowed to travel through areas at high levels.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

You've always been allowed to travel through areas at high levels.

I'm also booked into the Premier Inn Buchanan Street for two non-consecutive nights as well.

 

[Journeyman]

I'm also booked into the Premier Inn Buchanan Street for two non-consecutive nights as well.

Ah. Try and get travel insurance in case you have to cancel.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I suspect that might only be a week or two for Moray as their case-rate seems to have peaked and is now in sharp decline. Glasgow may take longer as it's on quite a steep rise at the moment but the incidence is very patchy with some areas <10 per 100000 and some over 1000 per 100000

I've still not heard any explanation as to how Moray had such a spike in a relatively rural region - East Lothian is not dissimilar in it's semi-rural nature but has had a consistently low rate for weeks now (Moray peaked at over 25x our rate)

There do seem to have been spikes in various other semi rural areas. A few weeks back, I think I heard about one in Sanquhar near Dumfries which meant Dumfries and Galloway's rate briefly quadrupled to quite a high level. I suppose Moray just got unlucky with its timing.

 

[chris11256]

So did I get that right, they are now back-peddling on the June 21st date ?

seems he was asked how likely it is that the final unlocking of restrictions in England will happen on 21 June.

PM said he can't say "for certain". Numbers of infections remain "low" across the country, he adds, and the situation is different from last year because of vaccines.

People will have to "wait and see" whether the new variant is more transmissible and wait for more evidence that vaccines have cut risks of hospitalisations and deaths.

But I thought they said a week or more ago, that it was more 'transmissable', but the vaccines we have a good for it, and it is not a severe varient ?

if I’m honest, I’d say that we are safe as long as there isn’t a large rise in hospital admissions. this would prove that the vaccines are doing what they are supposed to do. however at this point it is honestly too early to say given how little data there is. Plus at this point the large increases are limited to very specific areas.

The vaccine campaign could do with being sped up seeing as we are sitting on a 10 million stockpile.

I can kind of understand peoples panic, as they think it’s like last year all over again when we just sat and watched the Kent variant take over. As Boris said the difference is that this time we have the vaccines, which so far they protect against serious disease and death in allmost all cases.

 

[duncanp]

Sturgeon has decided to reimpose an 'essential only' travel ban in and out of both Moray and Glasgow due to a rise in cases, and each of these areas will not be moving down a level along with the rest of Scotland until their cases fall.

And I am sure that the people of Glasgow will resist the temptation to travel outside of Glasgow for a sneaky pint or three when the restrictions are eased in the rest of Scotland.

 

[WestCoast]

I don’t understand the travel restriction bit. When all of Scotland was in Level 3 previously you could travel for day trips and then overnight everywhere in Scotland and later England/Wales. Are they now saying back to no travel if you’re in Level 3? Frustrating if so.

 

[liam456]

I don’t understand the travel restriction bit. When all of Scotland was in Level 3 previously you could travel for day trips and then overnight everywhere in Scotland and later England/Wales. Are they now saying back to no travel if you’re in Level 3? Frustrating if so.

As much as it pains me to say, that was because all of Scotland was at level three. The roadmap always stated that travel from Level 3 to 2 or 1 wouldn't be allowed.

 

[Class 33]

if I’m honest, I’d say that we are safe as long as there isn’t a large rise in hospital admissions. this would prove that the vaccines are doing what they are supposed to do. however at this point it is honestly too early to say given how little data there is. Plus at this point the large increases are limited to very specific areas.

The vaccine campaign could do with being sped up seeing as we are sitting on a 10 million stockpile.

I can kind of understand peoples panic, as they think it’s like last year all over again when we just sat and watched the Kent variant take over. As Boris said the difference is that this time we have the vaccines, which so far they protect against serious disease and death in allmost all cases.

I'm no expert. But I'd say all this panic and fuss about this is overblown. I'm still confident that hospital admissions and deaths aren't going to surge up out of control again to horrendous levels. I'm still confident that all the hospital stats and deaths across England as a whole will still continue to fall over the coming weeks. Worst case scenario I think will be that they're only marginally higher than the miniscule numbers we have now. And if that's the case, that should be absolutely no justification for delaying the final stage on 21st June.