Stagecoach Takeover Discussion

[AngusH]

Most likely to be either of these two I think:

National Express Stagecoach
Stagecoach National Express


Others, not entirely serious, may have already been posted on the thread

National Stagecoach Express
Stagecoach Express National
Express National Stagecoach
Express Stagecoach National


Or with two words what about Express Stagecoach or Stagecoach National


Or pehaps they will pay millions to a branding consultancy
to come up with a name like Travlr (edit: actually taken already) or FastestBus

 

[Bishopstone]

Stagecoach shares up 21% on the day, which is good news if you bought-in yesterday.

If you bought-in during 2003, you’ve just about got your stake back, before consideration of dividends and dilutions along the way.

If you bought-in at any time since 2009, you’re out of the money still. Running buses doesn’t seem to be as lucrative as building expensive electric cars or smart phones.

 

[jkkne]

There's a strong chance they won't dissolve the Stagecoach name at all - it's probably got more name recognition for bus ops versus national express, added they might run it as a subsidiary.

Megabus will likely go the way into Nat Ex but I don't see the point in rebranding on mass. Current branding with Stagecoach (a National Express company) seems more likely.

 

[najaB]

Why would you think that National Express would be trying to buy First (a business that still has issues to resolve) rather than Stagecoach which is in much better shape?

Not speaking to the specifics of First vs Stagecoach, but it makes more sense to buy a business that has issues than one that is in good health as long as you have the ability to fix the issues. The return on investment will be much, much higher that way since the cost vs the value of the assets will be a lot better.

It's the same idea as buying a fixer-upper rather than a house that's ready to move in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Megabus will likely go the way into Nat Ex but I don't see the point in rebranding on mass. Current branding with Stagecoach (a National Express company) seems more likely.

Or Megabus by National Express. Stagecoach themselves have demonstrated that "competing with themselves" (i.e. market segmentation) does actually sometimes make sense - think Magic Bus.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Not speaking to the specifics of First vs Stagecoach, but it makes more sense to buy a business that has issues than one that is in good health as long as you have the ability to fix the issues. The return on investment will be much, much higher that way since the cost vs the value of the assets will be a lot better.

It's the same idea as buying a fixer-upper rather than a house that's ready to move in.

Well, if it wasn't in an industry with some almost existential problems, and a business in First that will still require some investment to get the age profile and condition of the fleet up to scratch and management time in some OpCos to get to the required margins, then yes.

However, money is tight and there's a raft of legislative challenges as well as just rebuilding from the damage of Covid. Better to do that from a stronger base.

 

[Unstoppable]

I wonder where this leaves Scotland with the Scottish Citylink/Megabus network which is an entirely different operation to Megabus in England. Stagecoach have shares of 35% in it and do a large quantity of the work.

 

[Aictos]

Most likely to be either of these two I think:

National Express Stagecoach
Stagecoach National Express


Others, not entirely serious, may have already been posted on the thread

National Stagecoach Express
Stagecoach Express National
Express National Stagecoach
Express Stagecoach National


Or with two words what about Express Stagecoach or Stagecoach National


Or pehaps they will pay millions to a branding consultancy
to come up with a name like Travlr (edit: actually taken already) or FastestBus

I doubt it, more likely just be Stagecoach part of the National Express Group eg the former Stagecoach operations with the National Express operations keeping their current branding or they will just keep their separate brands. I doubt very much that they use any of the examples in the post above.

Of course they could rename the local bus operators to the likes of The Peterborough Bus Company etc.....

 

[WM Bus]

I doubt it, more likely just be Stagecoach part of the National Express Group eg the former Stagecoach operations with the National Express operations keeping their current branding or they will just keep their separate brands. I doubt very much that they use any of the examples in the post above.

Of course they could rename the local bus operators to the likes of The Peterborough Bus Company etc.....

Wonder if the West Mids travelcard would be extended out into Warwickshire area to more routes X18, etc as its already valid on the ones NX currently run there 11, 20, X13 etc?
Could they be run as National Express Warwickshire maybe to fit in with West Midlands/Coventry?

 

[MotCO]

National Express own some coach-only companies, such as The King's Ferry and Lucketts. Would they use these bases to run buses - e.g. in Gillingham to compete against Arriva in the Medway towns?

 

[johncrossley]

Nat Express own some coach-only companies, such as The King's Ferry and Lucketts. Would they use these bases to run buses - e.g. in Gillingham to compete against Arriva in the Medway towns?

New competition is unlikely to be permitted under Enhanced Partnerships. That's assuming the region can sustain two operators. They could perhaps compete for tenders.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I'd be suprised if we see the Megabus brand go. It's a fairly powerful brand for those who do travel by coach. If its kept by National Express or spun off into something else (maybe picked up by Flixbus) who knows but I can't see it disappearing.

 

[JonathanH]

I'd be suprised if we see the Megabus brand go. It's a fairly powerful brand for those who do travel by coach. If its kept by National Express or spun off into something else (maybe picked up by Flixbus) who knows but I can't see it disappearing.

It seems fairly likely that Megabus will disappear, either into National Express or Flixbus. Having one fewer coach operator would allow prices to increase to a more natural level than currently seen on the routes where there is competition. If National Express are able to shut down the Megabus operation as part of this acquisition, they may well also be able to see off Flixbus.

It might be noted that First's attempt to run coaches failed after a short incarnation and that Flixbus is in the early stages of emulating National Express on a few main routes. My recent observations are that National Express are carrying more passengers than Flixbus where they are in direct competition. I'm not sure where another entrant to the coach market would come from.

If the combined organisation are able to claim that coaches are in competition with the railway and cars then I don't see National Express having to divest Megabus and it would appear to still be supported by Stagecoach's bus operation through both depots and onward use of the vehicles so wouldn't easily stand alone.

 

[cambsy]

I can see the coach stock side of things getting interesting if National Express takeover Stagecoach and Megabus, as they use different coach body manufacturers, Megabus mainly Plaxton, with their Elites and Panorama double-deckers, and National Express with their Cataeno Levantes Mk 11 and MK111, and Boa Vista double-decker. Would National express run a mixed fleet or get rid of the Plaxton stock? And aren’t National express partly owned by a Spanish concern, so could there be a conflict of interest if Nat Ex used Plaxton as well?

I personally would be happy to see Plaxton used by National Express, as they're nice coaches, and I have heard that Douglas Park, owner of Parks Of Hamilton, is not a fan of Cataeno coaches. I think he would be happy if he got to use Plaxtons again and there could be interesting times ahead.

 

[KGGXXXY]

I can see the coach stock side of things, getting interesting if National Express takeover Stagecoach and Megabus, as they use different coach body manufacturers, Megabus mainly Plaxton, with their Elites and Panorama double deckers, and National Express with their Cataeno Levante’s. Mk 11 and MK111, and Boa Vista double decker, so would National express run a mixed fleet or get rid of the Plaxton stock? And aren’t National express partly owned by a Spanish concern, so could be conflict of interest if Nat Ex used Plaxton as well?

I personally would be happy to see Plaxton used by National Express, as their nice coaches, and I have heard that Dennis Parks, owner of Parks Of Hamiltons, is not a fan of Cataeno coaches, so think he would be happy if get to use Plaxton’s again, think could be interesting times ahead.

I presume you mean Douglas Park from Parks of Hamilton. Judging by the fleet they run around the Glasgow area, they do like Plaxton products but have run other brands such as Van Hool in the past.

However I doubt the stock would change immediately and it may be brand dependent, National Express has very limited service in Scotland (If I am correct, only cross border) so the Megabus brand may stay North of the border in the short term. I wonder if the enlarged Nat EX/Stagecoach would look to buy out the remaining 65% of Citylink from ComfortDelGro, or sell it off to them?

 

[Goldfish62]

And aren’t National express partly owned by a Spanish concern, so could be conflict of interest if Nat Ex used Plaxton as well?

No. National Express bought Spain's second largest bus and coach operator, not the other way around.

And Caetano is Portuguese, not Spanish.

 

[GALLANTON]

My only hope is that if this goes ahead, they get shot of Stagecoach's god awful livery and replace it with something that doesn't look like it was designed by a 9 year old.

 

[-Colly405-]

I know it is all just speculation, but all this discussion about a new name - they could just as easily scrap all existing brands...

 

[GusB]

I know it is all just speculation, but all this discussion about a new name - they could just as easily scrap all existing brands...

Quite. Anyone would think it's a done deal already!

 

[carlberry]

It seems fairly likely that Megabus will disappear, either into National Express or Flixbus. Having one fewer coach operator would allow prices to increase to a more natural level than currently seen on the routes where there is competition. If National Express are able to shut down the Megabus operation as part of this acquisition, they may well also be able to see off Flixbus.

Megabus and National Express appeal to different markets and are both, therefore, of value. Shutting down one of them doesnt make any sense and owning both of them means, in effect, you've removed one competing operator anyway. Tesco is quite happy to have own brand value, standard and premium products competing with each other because they realise they appeal to different people.

 

[MotCO]

I personally would be happy to see Plaxton used by National Express

The Cataenos offer easy disabled access through the front door - I'm not sure that Plaxton offer a similar product. I think Plaxton's tend to use lifts in window bays.

I'd be suprised if we see the Megabus brand go. It's a fairly powerful brand for those who do travel by coach. If its kept by National Express or spun off into something else (maybe picked up by Flixbus) who knows but I can't see it disappearing.

Could Megabus be used as a 'bargain basement' brand to fight off competition from Flixbus with their (current) low fares?

 

[NorthOxonian]

Megabus and National Express appeal to different markets and are both, therefore, of value. Shutting down one of them doesnt make any sense and owning both of them means, in effect, you've removed one competing operator anyway. Tesco is quite happy to have own brand value, standard and premium products competing with each other because they realise they appeal to different people.

And they even operate Jack's supermarkets in certain areas (which in theory compete with main Tesco stores) - generally where incomes are relatively low and so the market for a budget supermarket is strongest. You could imagine National Express vs Megabus being similar in a combined firm - almost all of their coaches in the South East being the former but as you head north and west, more and more of the routes being Megabus instead.

Could Megabus be used as a 'bargain basement' brand to fight off competition from Flixbus with their (current) low fares?

That would make sense to me. Just personally (but a lot of my uni mates think the same), I wouldn't even consider National Express because I expect them to almost always be out of my price range, whereas I perceive Megabus to be much better value. If enough people think like that (i.e. they would consider one of the two but not the other), then it would be sensible to keep the brands separate.

 

[JonathanH]

Megabus and National Express appeal to different markets and are both, therefore, of value. Shutting down one of them doesnt make any sense and owning both of them means, in effect, you've removed one competing operator anyway.

Shutting down Megabus allows National Express to increase fares and therefore revenue or to reduce costs by only running one coach where there are currently two. (At present, Megabus tends not to be cheapest where I have had the choice of the two anyway.)

Tesco is quite happy to have own brand value, standard and premium products competing with each other because they realise they appeal to different people.

That is somewhat different though (and one of the reasons why they are not as nimble as Aldi / Lidl).

The acquisition (not merger) of Stagecoach by National Express is the takeover of a bus operator that runs some coaches by a coach operator that runs some buses and a clear opportunity to consolidate as a coach operation (the National Express operation) and a bus operation.

One other point on the coach operations of both operators is the question of whether they will ever restore the network they had pre March 2020. National Express are running lower frequencies on many routes and shorter workings than they used to with different route numbers. Megabus hasn't restored the same services.

 

[carlberry]

Shutting down Megabus allows National Express to increase fares and therefore revenue or to reduce costs by only running one coach where there are currently two. (At present, Megabus tends not to be cheapest where I have had the choice of the two anyway.)


The acquisition (not merger) of Stagecoach by National Express is the takeover of a bus operator that runs some coaches by a coach operator that runs some buses and a clear opportunity to consolidate as a coach operation (the National Express operation) and a bus operation.

One other point on the coach operations of both operators is the question of whether they will ever restore the network they had pre March 2020. National Express are running lower frequencies on many routes and shorter workings than they used to with different route numbers. Megabus hasn't restored the same services.

Shutting down Megabus just means passengers who use Megabus have to look elsewhere, and who is operating on most of the routes that Megabus operate; Flixbus. Costs can only be reduced if there are enough empty seats and, recently, things have started to return to how them were on the routes that have competition. If you're saying that Megabus isn't the cheapest then shutting it down would reduce fares.

National Express group is a bus operator that also runs coaches.

 

[Busaholic]

I know it is all just speculation, but all this discussion about a new name - they could just as easily scrap all existing brands...

How about 'Duncowboying'?

 

[bluenoxid]

Assuming this merger goes through, I wonder which the biggest British town or city without any local "National Stagecoach" buses will be? I thought of Leeds but, even after the Hull route moved over to Megabus, they still have route X10 from Barnsley. Maybe they will pull out or be wiped out of Manchester when franchising takes effect.

I was wondering if Bradford qualified

 

[Simon75]

Remember before National Express was privatised, they used NBC (National Bus Company) subsidiaries.
This if (just speculation) they run in-house ie via Stagecoach subsidiaries

 

[megabusser]

I wonder if Megabus could continue just as a sales website for National Express coaches? It effectively already happens in Scotland, where the Megabus and CityLink websites both sell tickets for CityLink coaches.

Some CityLink coaches have some dual branding too, and they are listed as ‘City/Mega’ at Buchanan Bus Station.

Since both Megabus and National Express brands are strong (but probably appeal to different markets), something like this could work, initially at least.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Remember before National Express was privatised, they used NBC (National Bus Company) subsidiaries.
This if (just speculation) they run in-house ie via Stagecoach subsidiaries

Yes but that was because they were often the original operators of those routes prior to the creation of the NBC and National Express.

 

[Rod Harrison]

There seems to be an assumption that it would be Flixbus that would take over Megabus if the merger goes ahead and it is sold off. I would have thought that, as they are already the major shareholder in Megabus, and CityLink, in Scotland, and would appear to want to expand in the U.K., they are in pole position to be the likely purchasers.