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Stagecoach Takeover Discussion

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MotCO

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The Daily Telegraph on-line is reporting that National Express is thinking of bidding for Stagecoach. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/20/national-express-targets-stagecoach-takeover/

National Express is mulling a bid for rival Stagecoach that could join up two of the UK’s biggest transport operators.

The FTSE 250 coach operator has been discussing an audacious takeover of Perth-based Stagecoach, sources told Bloomberg.

Stagecoach is one of Britain’s largest bus operators, running 8,500 buses and employing 25,000 people. Its co-founders, siblings Sir Brian Souter and Dame Ann Gloag, still hold a combined 25.1pc stake in the company according to its latest annual report.

The company is currently valued at around £370m, having seen its share price roughly cut in half since the onset of the pandemic.

National Express, which is headquartered in Birmingham, is worth about £1.4bn, with its shares also changing hands at around half their pre-pandemic price. It is the UK’s biggest longhaul coach operator. National Express also runs the US’s second-biggest school bus operation.

Stagecoach exited the UK rail market in 2019 after it was disqualified from bidding for three franchises, including the West Coast line that it had shared with Virgin Trains.

Bloomberg reported that a merger between the companies could cut costs through route-sharing and the consolidation of administration.

If a takeover bid is tabled, it would mark a reversal of fortunes for the two companies. In 2009, National Express rejected a £1.7bn merger approach made by Stagecoach.

I didn't realise that National Express was valued higher than Stagecoach.

Don't think that this is just the long distance coaching arm to see off Flixbus - I assume it is local bus networks as well, but I don't know how the Mergers and Monoplies Commission would view this.
 
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Bletchleyite

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I doubt buses would be an issue as they only operate those in a small number of places. They would probably have to divest Megabus - perhaps they think Flix would pay a decent price for it?
 

JonathanH

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For all their similarities, National Express, Megabus and now Flixbus do have different offerings. Consolidation wouldn't really be in the passengers interest.
 
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johncrossley

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I didn't realise that National Express was valued higher than Stagecoach.

Although it is possible to take over a bigger company than yourself. For example, when the Royal Bank of Scotland took over NatWest.
 

overthewater

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The only trouble spot would be parts of Warwickshire. Didn't Stagecoach say they would get rid of a few depots if they took over National Express a few years back?

I'm surprised National Express isn't trying to buy First.
 
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Volvodart

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Statement re Possible Offer

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clie.../regulatory-story.aspx?cid=273&newsid=1510258

21 September 2021



Stagecoach Group plc



Statement regarding recent press speculation



The Board of Stagecoach Group plc ("Stagecoach" or the "Company") notes the recent press speculation and confirms that it is in discussions with National Express Group PLC ("National Express") in relation to a possible all-share combination (the "Potential Combination" to form the "Combined Group").



Under the terms of the Potential Combination, it is expected that Stagecoach shareholders would receive 0.36 new National Express ordinary shares for each Stagecoach ordinary share, resulting in them owning approximately 25 per cent. of the Combined Group.



The Boards of Stagecoach and National Express believe that the Potential Combination would be a strategically compelling proposition with the potential to realise significant growth and cost synergies, as well as delivering strong value creation for both sets of shareholders.

Compelling Strategic and Financial Rationale

It is expected that the Potential Combination would provide an opportunity for the Combined Group to:

- Deliver significant operational efficiencies across the combined networks, with, for example, National Express Coach utilising Stagecoach's well-located depot network to run and maintain its coach operations;

- Bring the 'best of both' from the combined operational capabilities of both businesses, whilst also delivering significant benefits to customers and passengers;

- Accelerate the expansion of National Express' growth businesses, such as private hire coach, corporate shuttle and accessible transport, across Stagecoach's UK footprint, as well as deliver other growth and revenue synergies; and

- Maintain strong relationships with key public sector stakeholders, best positioning the Combined Group in an evolving industry landscape, with quality public transport playing a critical role in delivering government priorities for cleaner, greener and more resilient economies.

Key Terms

Under the terms of the Potential Combination, it is expected that Stagecoach shareholders would receive 0.36 new National Express ordinary shares for each Stagecoach ordinary share, resulting in them owning approximately 25 per cent. of the Combined Group.



As at close of business on 20 September 2021 (being the last business day before the date of this announcement), the terms of the Potential Combination implied a premium relative to the price of Stagecoach's ordinary shares of approximately:



· 18.0 per cent. based on respective closing share prices;



· 23.2 per cent. based on respective last three month volume weighted average share prices; and

· 17.6 per cent. based on respective last six month volume weighted average share prices.

Governance and Management

It is envisaged that the Board of Directors of the Combined Group would comprise an approximately proportionate share of Stagecoach and National Express directors.

Upon completion of the Potential Combination, it is envisaged that:

· Ray O'Toole would become Chair of the Board of the Combined Group, leveraging his prior experience across both businesses, with Sir John Armitt CBE stepping down having been Chair of National Express since February 2013;

· Jorge Cosmen would be Deputy Chair of the Combined Group; and

· Ignacio Garat and Chris Davies would be CEO and CFO respectively of the Combined Group.
 
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TheGrandWazoo

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The only trouble spot would be parts of Warwickshire. Didn't Stagecoach say they would get rid of a few depots if they took over National Express a few years back?

I'm surprised National Express isn't trying to buy First.
Why would you think that National Express would be trying to buy First (a business that still has issues to resolve) rather than Stagecoach which is in much better shape?
Who would want First at this point in history?
Exactly
A person who occasionally posts on here tipped me off about this a couple of months ago. At that time, it was clear that NX and Stagecoach were talking but it was unclear about who was looking to purchase who.

Looks a fair way down the line when they're agreeing who's going to wear which cap!
 

Megafuss

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Maybe it's the only way they can get Martin Grittiths out the door!

It was clear something was up when Stagecoach made a whole lot of support staff redundant a few months back, only to rehire some of them back!
 

asw22

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In 2009 First, Cosmen / CVC and Stagecoach had expressed an interest in bidding for National Express.

-----------------------------------
Statement regarding press speculation
19 October 2009
On 16 October 2009, following the announcement that the consortium comprising CVC Capital Partners and the Cosmen family (together, the "Consortium") did not intend to make an offer for the Group, the Board of National Express (the "Board") reiterated its belief that strengthening the Group's balance sheet through an equity fundraising is a key objective in order to unlock the inherent value of the Group for all shareholders. The Board believes that an equity fundraising should be executed in 2009 to secure a sustainable capital structure for the Group.
Stagecoach Group plc ("Stagecoach")
Stagecoach announced on 27 July 2009 that it was continuing to consider all options in relation to the Group. On 5 August 2009 the Takeover Panel Executive ruled that, unless the Takeover Panel Executive consented otherwise, each of the Consortium and Stagecoach must, by 5.00pm on 11 September 2009 (the "Put Up Shut Up Deadline"), either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Group under Rule 2.5 of the Takeover Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for the Group. Stagecoach accepted this ruling.
FirstGroup plc ("FirstGroup")
The Board confirms that it has not received any proposal from FirstGroup, other than as previously announced on 29 June 2009. FirstGroup subsequently announced on 22 July 2009 that it did not intend to make an offer for Group.**
The Board received various offer proposals for the Group following the announcement on 1 July 2009 that the Group had clear legal advice that its financial obligations to the East Coast rail franchise were clearly defined and limited. Each proposal was evaluated in detail by the Board and its advisers, and all discussions in relation to these proposals have concluded.

-----------------------------

The bid would value Stagecoach at around £445m
LONDON (Reuters) -British transport company National Express is in talks to acquire rival operator Stagecoach Group in an all-share deal, offering scope for cost savings and underpinning their recovery from COVID-19.

The tie-up, which would value Stagecoach at about 445 million pounds ($609 million), comes as government support to help the companies get through the pandemic is due to expire.
-------------------------------

Aside from Birmingham / Coventry and UK coach I don't think there's much overlap between the two.
 
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MotCO

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Although it is possible to take over a bigger company than yourself. For example, when the Royal Bank of Scotland took over NatWest.

Yes, realise that. It was just the relative size/values of the company I was surprised about.
 

RT4038

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Would the bid get challenged for competition by the Government?
It may do, but with the Enhanced Partnerships scheme reducing bus companies freedom of commercial action on local services, and the tiny fraction of the long distance market that coach is, I wouldn't bet on it.
 

ivanhoe

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This will be a good fit for National Express and can’t see this being challenged by Competition & Markets Authority. The Pandemic coupled with as RT4038 has stated, Enhanced Partnerships, has changed the Bus Market. Look out for further mergers once this has been approved by all parties.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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It may do, but with the Enhanced Partnerships scheme reducing bus companies freedom of commercial action on local services, and the tiny fraction of the long distance market that coach is, I wouldn't bet on it.
I tend to agree with you. Given the relative lack of overlap between the two businesses, it wouldn't be the most contentious deal in history. The long distance market is dominated by rail, and increasingly by air, and there's an aggressive disruptor in Flixbus. In the bus market.... there's not a huge amount (esp after the sale of Dundee) and arguably, a sale of NX's Coventry depot would probably be the only measure required (if that).

Stagecoach has sort of lost it's mojo in some respects but is still a very sound business.
 

Bletchleyite

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Stagecoach has sort of lost it's mojo in some respects but is still a very sound business.

Stagecoach does seem to have gone the way of many former family businesses - it was the family who were driving it (pun not intended) and once they stepped back the company didn't really have the wherewithal to innovate. The new liveries, clearly a cost-cutting measure compared with multiple brandings and using Best Impressions, are a prime example of this. It all looks much more like First than the innovative business it was when Souter was actually directly involved.

This being the case, and given that NatEx have plenty of coach experience and seem to run a high quality bus operation in the West Midlands, this seems a good thing to me.
 

RT4038

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I tend to agree with you. Given the relative lack of overlap between the two businesses, it wouldn't be the most contentious deal in history. The long distance market is dominated by rail, and increasingly by air, and there's an aggressive disruptor in Flixbus. In the bus market.... there's not a huge amount (esp after the sale of Dundee) and arguably, a sale of NX's Coventry depot would probably be the only measure required (if that).

Stagecoach has sort of lost it's mojo in some respects but is still a very sound business.
This will have been run past the competition authorities already. If it was a non-starter it would never have been announced, and if it required any significant disposal this would have been mentioned in the announcement I should imagine.
 

Scotrail314209

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If this goes through, it will definitely be huge.

It'll be interesting to see what becomes of the operations, including the likes of National Express (coaches) and Megabus.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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This will have been run past the competition authorities already. If it was a non-starter it would never have been announced, and if it required any significant disposal this would have been mentioned in the announcement I should imagine.
Given that the senior directorship structure has already been agreed, I tend to agree with you.

It's a big deal but I think the enthusiast chatter may not be rewarded with too much actual change.
 

Harold Hill

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I bought a few hundred shares in Natational Express in March because I thought there'd always be a market for cheap travel, since then their price has dropped 25%. I'm guessing the rise and rise of Flixbus and Megabus is responsible. I think it is probably a good thing that the company is fighting back, if that's what they're doing
 

Bletchleyite

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I bought a few hundred shares in NatExp in March because I thought there'd always be a market for cheap travel, since then their price has dropped 25%. I'm guessing the rise and rise of Flixbus and Megabus is responsible. I think it is probably a good thing that the company is fighting back, if that's what they're doing

Fundamentally there probably isn't room in what is a fairly small market for 3 operators, but it has operated happily with 2 for a good while now. So consolidating two of them will probably produce a reasonable equilibrium in the market.

If you'd asked me to predict what would happen it'd be Stagecoach flogging Megabus to Flix (as they did in mainland Europe) but this works too.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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If this had taken place 5-6 years ago, it would have been a big thing for the GB national rail system.
As it is today, NatEx has an interest in some German regional rail operations, otherwise the combined group is out of the rail market.
How different the prospective merger might have looked on the WCML, ECML and SWML had they still been the incumbents, not to mention NXEA and c2c.
 

Volvodart

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The last annual accounts turnovers at group level National Express was about double of Stagecoach continuing operations.
 

317 forever

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The only trouble spot would be parts of Warwickshire. Didn't Stagecoach say they would get rid of a few depots if they took over National Express a few years back?

I'm surprised National Express isn't trying to buy First.
I believe that was when CVC & Cosmen bid for National Express in 2009 and planned, if successful, to divest the UK bus and rail (but not coach) operations to Stagecoach. Stagecoach apparently even had purchasers in mind for Warwickshire & Dundee buses in case these acquisitions had gone through.

Assuming this merger goes through, I wonder which the biggest British town or city without any local "National Stagecoach" buses will be? I thought of Leeds but, even after the Hull route moved over to Megabus, they still have route X10 from Barnsley. Maybe they will pull out or be wiped out of Manchester when franchising takes effect.
 

RT4038

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I bought a few hundred shares in NatExp in March because I thought there'd always be a market for cheap travel, since then their price has dropped 25%. I'm guessing the rise and rise of Flixbus and Megabus is responsible. I think it is probably a good thing that the company is fighting back, if that's what they're doing
Pandemic decimation of the high fare, high yield airport services more like.
 

Robertj21a

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I believe that was when CVC & Cosmen bid for National Express in 2009 and planned, if successful, to divest the UK bus and rail (but not coach) operations to Stagecoach. Stagecoach apparently even had purchasers in mind for Warwickshire & Dundee buses in case these acquisitions had gone through.

Assuming this merger goes through, I wonder which the biggest British town or city without any local "National Stagecoach" buses will be? I thought of Leeds but, even after the Hull route moved over to Megabus, they still have route X10 from Barnsley. Maybe they will pull out or be wiped out of Manchester when franchising takes effect.
Derby?
 
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