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Should there be more stations on HS2?

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FMerrymon

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The cost of stopping at an intermediate station on a high-speed line is huge. From 360kph, it takes 220s to stop and 534s to get back up to line speed, by which time a non-stop train will be 35km further ahead of the stopping train. (OOC is not as bad as that, because trains are already slowing for Euston anyway, but it is still a large time penalty. And it means that the expensive tunnels from OOC to Euston will only ever carry 18tph and will only ever be half full).

Its about 3 minutes. The journey between Euston and OOC won't get much over 100 and the tunnels are narrower as a result. The trains won't run at 360 routinely and will run no more than 320 between the northern exit of the chiltern tunnel and OOC.

OOC is a really important stop - the expectation was for 1/3rd of passengers to use that stop and 2/3rd Euston. Whether the trains are full or not on that short hop is entirely irrelevant.

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I'd expect to have cross overs between the fasts and the slows so that say 4tph from Aylesbury would go direct to Euston, and 4-8tph from the main HS2 line would terminate at OOC.

I'd never realised Aylesbury is so important. Is there some hidden economic value or tourist attraction there that I'm missing? A theme seems to be if we had connected a major transport project to Aylesbury, all would have been fine.
 
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The Planner

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Normal service brake performance, from the HS2 Train Technical Specification
View attachment 193879

Deceleration has to be feeble at high speeds because of the huge kinetic energy that has to be pumped back into the OHLE or dumped into the brakes.

Full eservice braking is not much better:
View attachment 193880


My calculation for stopping distance under normal service braking was
View attachment 193882
What is that from 320 under full service brake, as that is what matters.
 

Nottingham59

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Its about 3 minutes.
The penalty for calling at OOC is more than that. I reckon it will take HS2 trains 240s to traverse the 8km from Euston to stop at OOC plus 120s dwell, which adds up to 6 minutes, before accelerating away to line speed. It takes 40km to accelerate to 360km/h, by which time the train will be through the Chiltern tunnel.

If they accelerate from Euston instead, they will hit linespeed 6 minutes earlier and 8km closer to London. At 360km/h those 8km will be traversed in just 80s. So the time penalty for calling at OOC is 360-80 = 280s, so 4 minutes 40 seconds.

And that's assuming that you can load or unload one third of 1100 passengers in just 120 seconds dwell time, which I personally doubt. Same calculation for braking southbound.

The journey between Euston and OOC won't get much over 100 and the tunnels are narrower as a result.
Precisely. Without a stop at OOC, and slightly wider tunnels, HS2 trains could have run at 360kph all the way to the braking point for Euston.

I'd never realised Aylesbury is so important. Is there some hidden economic value or tourist attraction there that I'm missing? A theme seems to be if we had connected a major transport project to Aylesbury, all would have been fine.
Aylesbury has a population of 90,000 and is the biggest town on the route of HS2 between London and Interchange, so it's a good example of where a station could have been built. As per the title of this thread.

== == == ==

What is that from 320 under full service brake, as that is what matters.
120 seconds and 5.7km.

1765719464154.png
 

HSTEd

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That analysis is the tail wagging the dog. The high speed network should stretch the country, therefore the first section has minimal stops. What made it look like they were scrabbling? We may be able to clear up a persistent misunderstanding.
The Y shaped network that has to gather all the north-south traffic from all three existing corridors and funnel it into a single pair of tracks in order to fill them.

Which produces a railway with operational characteristics seen nowhere else that I am aware of. There is no analogue to the London-Birmingham HS2 route anywhere that I know of.

They've designed an airline on the ground, not a railway.

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The uplift is just as generous, if not more, on the classic railway when dealing with planning headways. The WCML south of Crewe operates around the 75 second mark. So reducing the block sections is still going to make little difference. What is the stopping distance for a train at 320km/h anyway, you don't really want it ending up in the next section.
Bombardier assessed the stopping distance from 360kph for a trainset would be approximately 9,270m on level track using representative service brake figures for real trainsets.
EDIT:
At 320kph it would be much shorter, but they don't give specific figures.
 
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Sorcerer

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Where do high-speed lines like the Shinkansen that have a large number of intermediate stops that are not "major hub stations" fit here? It's quite easy to find stations that aren't major hubs on HSR lines.
The Shinkansen network mostly serves large, densely populated urban areas on a relatively linear trunk corridor, not rural areas or stations located in otherwise empty countryside. Even then the mixed-traffic network of fast, semi-fast and stopping trains requires smart timetabling so that the fasts aren't held up by the slower services. But in this case the cost of having an intermediate stop is worth it because the demand is sufficient enough to justify it.

One large part of why California High Speed Rail has been mismanaged is because of the decision to start building through the Central Valley instead of a more populated corridor. Rural stations are usually done to appease local politicians, not because it's prime high-speed rail territory. Even the French network has relatively few stops; the LGV Nord for example only has four stations across a 333km line, not much greater than the distance from London to Liverpool.

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The Y shaped network that has to gather all the north-south traffic from all three existing corridors and funnel it into a single pair of tracks in order to fill them.

Which produces a railway with operational characteristics seen nowhere else that I am aware of. There is no analogue to the London-Birmingham HS2 route anywhere that I know of.

They've designed an airline on the ground, not a railway.
Which particular operational characteristics are you referring to?
 

aron2smith

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Neither HS1 nor HS2 should be seen as the answer to short distance transit flows.
Why couldn't high speed rail bring rail access to towns currently either lacking connectivity or currently have no rail station at all?

I thought Spain's high speed rail network introduced trains to previously unserved towns, seems a good idea to me here too.

A HS2 station somewhere in Buckinghamshire seems a no brainer. Could even build a new town out of it. Would be well positioned for commuting both into London and Birmingham from there. Something Banbury Station proudly boasts of, a high speed version would make HS2 immensely more useful.
 

30907

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The Y shaped network that has to gather all the north-south traffic from all three existing corridors and funnel it into a single pair of tracks in order to fill them.

Which produces a railway with operational characteristics seen nowhere else that I am aware of. There is no analogue to the London-Birmingham HS2 route anywhere that I know of.
It's (in that original context) quite like the LGV Paris-Lyon (apart from the higher frequencies): half-a-dozen regular services of which only one actually serves Lyon, the rest bypass it.
Looking at the LGVs overall (and ignoring all the politics), the intermediate stations are a mixed bag:
Sud-Est has a couple of intermediate stations with 2-hourly services to Paris - pretty minimal in terms of line occupancy.
Nord has the original "gare betterave" at Haute Picardie which was intended for Paris traffic (and failed!) but has come into its own since the Interconnexion opened (I wonder if it has become a remote car park for CDG?)
Est has Reims-CA and Meuse, both predominantly served by Province-Province trains, ditto Massy (which be a French Stevenage if SNCF were interested).
Atlantique has Vendome which is clearly Paris-orientated, Bretagne has nothing on the core section.

Anyway, I too have often wondered whether a Bucks HS2 station should be provided: the French evidence seems to be that it would only work for London traffic, rather than for (eg) Aylesbury-Manchester.
So if it turned out that there was long-term spare capacity on HS2 (which might be the case with nothing going to the NE) and if you agreed to build a Buckinghamshire New Town by the line, you would then add a station and run very fast commuter trains to Euston (say 4tph like Ashford); perhaps if there were still a spare path you might add 1tph to the north.
That's two big ifs - and the second is vanishingly unlikely IMO, certainly in the next 20 years.
 

CW2

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A HS2 station somewhere in Buckinghamshire seems a no brainer. Could even build a new town out of it. Would be well positioned for commuting both into London and Birmingham from there. Something Banbury Station proudly boasts of, a high speed version would make HS2 immensely more useful.
During consultation on HS2, my experience with the landed gentry of Buckinghamshire was that they were vehemently opposed to the idea of any HS2 station nearby. They didn't want to attract more road traffic and pressure for new towns.

Likewise, for the capacity reasons already outlined above, it proved impossible to make a good business case for any such station.

So the combination of "We don't want it" and "We can't afford to build it anyway" pretty much scuppered the prospect.

I enjoy reading this speculation, but high speed / high capacity rail lines work best as smooth pipelines. Proposing intermediate stations in the Chilterns flies directly in the face of that principle, and should be resisted
 

SynthD

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I think HS2 should serve Manchester Airport by splitting at Crewe with 200m units calling at Crewe and Wilmslow and terminating on the 200m platforms at Airport.
How is Manchester served?
The Y shaped network that has to gather all the north-south traffic from all three existing corridors and funnel it into a single pair of tracks in order to fill them.
The WCML has trains from Scotland, Liverpool, Manchester and north Wales coming together at Crewe. The GWR has trains from Penzance, Bristol, Barnstaple, Banbury and south Wales coming together at Reading. In cases across the country, the final single pair of fast/main tracks often defines the service to the further portions of the network. Did the GWR foolishly build to Birkenhead and Southampton only to fill Reading to Paddington?
Which produces a railway with operational characteristics seen nowhere else that I am aware of.
I don’t know enough about the overseas networks, but the LGV Atlantique looks similar on a map, especially as it doesn’t have a station between 14 and 160km from its Paris terminus.
 

MarkyT

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Anyway, I too have often wondered whether a Bucks HS2 station should be provided: the French evidence seems to be that it would only work for London traffic, rather than for (eg) Aylesbury-Manchester.
So if it turned out that there was long-term spare capacity on HS2 (which might be the case with nothing going to the NE) and if you agreed to build a Buckinghamshire New Town by the line, you would then add a station and run very fast commuter trains to Euston (say 4tph like Ashford); perhaps if there were still a spare path you might add 1tph to the north.
That's two big ifs - and the second is vanishingly unlikely IMO, certainly in the next 20 years.
Additional shorter-distance London-focussed HS traffic might be handled by extra junctions leading to the classic network rather than building expensive and poorly sited new station facilities on the high-speed line itself. As an example, a branch might diverge between Wendover and Aylesbury. Fast trains could then serve Aylesbury, Vale Parkway, a new station at Steeple Claydon on EWR (island platform for easy interchange in all directions). A further extension might take a new chord heading north to meet the old route from Verney Junction to Buckingham and Brackley, where the terminus could form an A43 parkway.

The paths vacated by these trains leaving the mainline might be used further north by a new HS service between the North West/Midlands and Oxford/Reading/Southampton via a second new junction near Chetwode swinging west to meet EWR.
 

FMerrymon

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The penalty for calling at OOC is more than that. I reckon it will take HS2 trains 240s to traverse the 8km from Euston to stop at OOC plus 120s dwell, which adds up to 6 minutes, before accelerating away to line speed. It takes 40km to accelerate to 360km/h, by which time the train will be through the Chiltern tunnel.

If they accelerate from Euston instead, they will hit linespeed 6 minutes earlier and 8km closer to London. At 360km/h those 8km will be traversed in just 80s. So the time penalty for calling at OOC is 360-80 = 280s, so 4 minutes 40 seconds.

And that's assuming that you can load or unload one third of 1100 passengers in just 120 seconds dwell time, which I personally doubt. Same calculation for braking southbound.

The timing between Euston and OOC is 5 mins and then there is a 2 min dwell. Timings from OOC are 7 mins less than Euston.

The timing to Birmingham Curzon St with a stop at Interchange is 49mins, 45mins without and there is a higher line speed Interchange-Curzon Street than OOC-Euston, which is where I calculated the 3 mins, but 4mins is enough. It doesnt really matter though, its not about the speed from Euston, but fast from OOC helps relieve cross country services.

It wont routinely run at 360 and will be limited to 320 by the point of Chiltern tunnel anyway.


Precisely. Without a stop at OOC, and slightly wider tunnels, HS2 trains could have run at 360kph all the way to the braking point for Euston.

And you'd miss the value of redevelopment in OOC, the connections to GWR and relieving cross country, the connections to Heathrow, to London Overground and the value of OOC to Chiltern.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Additional shorter-distance London-focussed HS traffic might be handled by extra junctions leading to the classic network rather than building expensive and poorly sited new station facilities on the high-speed line itself. As an example, a branch might diverge between Wendover and Aylesbury. Fast trains could then serve Aylesbury, Vale Parkway, a new station at Steeple Claydon on EWR (island platform for easy interchange in all directions). A further extension might take a new chord heading north to meet the old route from Verney Junction to Buckingham and Brackley, where the terminus could form an A43 parkway.

The paths vacated by these trains leaving the mainline might be used further north by a new HS service between the North West/Midlands and Oxford/Reading/Southampton via a second new junction near Chetwode swinging west to meet EWR.
Oxford/Reading/Southampton already have an option via OOC which would be significantly quicker and more frequent (Oxford not so much, but for some destinations).
 

eldomtom2

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The Shinkansen network mostly serves large, densely populated urban areas on a relatively linear trunk corridor, not rural areas or stations located in otherwise empty countryside. Even then the mixed-traffic network of fast, semi-fast and stopping trains requires smart timetabling so that the fasts aren't held up by the slower services. But in this case the cost of having an intermediate stop is worth it because the demand is sufficient enough to justify it.
I think you're confusing the Tokaido Shinkansen with the Shinkansen network as a whole. Here's a partial list of Shinkansen stations that are either right on the outskirts of urban areas (or even beyond them into the rural areas bordering them) or solely serve small towns and rural areas:
  • Mihara
  • Higashi-Hiroshima
  • Asa
  • Chikugo-Funagoya
  • Shin-Tamana
  • Ureshino-Onsen
  • Takeo-Onsen
  • Shichinohe-Towada
  • Shiroishizao
  • Kurikomakogen
  • Iwatenumakunai
  • Okutsugaru-Imabetsu
  • Kikonai
One large part of why California High Speed Rail has been mismanaged is because of the decision to start building through the Central Valley instead of a more populated corridor. Rural stations are usually done to appease local politicians, not because it's prime high-speed rail territory.
I really do not think the decisions taken in this regard by CAHSR were a mistake. The cities served in the Central Valley are large and growing ones, and it makes sense to start construction with the easiest section in a country with no experience of building high-speed rail.
 

MarkyT

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Oxford/Reading/Southampton already have an option via OOC which would be significantly quicker and more frequent (Oxford not so much, but for some destinations).
Partly true. Southampton doesn't have a single interchange unless you discount the proposed shuttle transfer leg between Birmingham Interchange to International, picking up an XC, and I'm sure Oxford would be a longer journey time via OOC. Reading is probably borderline. HS2 passes within 20 miles of Oxford and approaching via EWR is a fairly direct route from the north, though obviously not as fast as carrying on at full speed to OOC, but the journey back from there, the interchange penalty, and risk of missing the first connection need to be taken into account. I also expect fares to typically be more expensive via OOC, to help manage loadings. While I'm sure it will be a well-used hub, it's perhaps not a good idea to funnel too much traffic through OOC that might take other routes.
 

HSTEd

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It's (in that original context) quite like the LGV Paris-Lyon (apart from the higher frequencies): half-a-dozen regular services of which only one actually serves Lyon, the rest bypass it.
It's not really quite the same though.

Given that the journey time from Paris Lyon is very much longer.

They are proposing end to end high speed rail joruneys, without many stops, of well under an hour.
 

aron2smith

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So the combination of "We don't want it" and "We can't afford to build it anyway" pretty much scuppered the prospect.
They are lucky someone like me isn't in charge, I would've done it anyway. Until the housing crisis is no more, local opinion should be taken with a bucket of salt. Building any new railway should come with the idea of small and medium sized towns or in this case a major expansion of an existing town like Brackley. There needs to be strategic joined up planning with these things.

And I'd agree with you if HS2 was being built to the original plan but now it's barely a shuttle. The original plan would've taken pressure off of not 1, not 2 but 3 mainline railways! Whether that happens again in the future or not, at the same time, any opportunity to connect towns to the rail network should be taken.

No one is really pushing to extend the Aylesbury line north but really it should be to an extent, connectivity is kinda dire there. Same with what I was saying a page or so back on HS1, whilst Kent and Essex have barely any public transport from 1 to the other, that line speeds right past.

And this phase of HS2 must be finished but it should be finished with the view of building it to where it would make the biggest impact on the network.
 

Sir Felix Pole

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The 'Gares des Betteraves' are a national joke in France, but on the later lines it went too far the other way. LGV SEA (Tours to Bordeaux) has no intermediate stations, yet it runs very close to the outskirts of Poitiers - a city about the size of Exeter. TGVs have to come off the LGV to use the classic station there, meaning a very messy and inefficient timetable. An out-of-town TGV station would have been appropriate in that case, which fast Bordeaux services could call at.
 

FMerrymon

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Partly true. Southampton doesn't have a single interchange unless you discount the proposed shuttle transfer leg between Birmingham Interchange to International, picking up an XC, and I'm sure Oxford would be a longer journey time via OOC. Reading is probably borderline. HS2 passes within 20 miles of Oxford and approaching via EWR is a fairly direct route from the north, though obviously not as fast as carrying on at full speed to OOC, but the journey back from there, the interchange penalty, and risk of missing the first connection need to be taken into account. I also expect fares to typically be more expensive via OOC, to help manage loadings. While I'm sure it will be a well-used hub, it's perhaps not a good idea to funnel too much traffic through OOC that might take other routes.

The timings for Reading and Oxford to the midlands and north are here: https://x.com/EngFocus/status/1998849251044991282?s=20. Not all the current timings are for direct services. Southampton might be a little messier changing at Reading & OOC, but would still be a 45-50min saving to Manchester.

Why do you think fares would be more expensive via OOC? XC are already quite expensive because they have little seat capacity. Why would you not funnel people through OOC?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

No one is really pushing to extend the Aylesbury line north but really it should be to an extent, connectivity is kinda dire there. Same with what I was saying a page or so back on HS1, whilst Kent and Essex have barely any public transport from 1 to the other, that line speeds right past.

All along the stretch north of Aylesbury, HS2 are building ready for the Aylesbury link - you can see all the bridges and structures are 4 track in this video of Quainton to Calvert
. This is where Aylesbury should benefit and the plan is to run into OOC as well. That would make Aylesbury to Manchester around 2hr05. For new towns, we should be looking at building them along lines freed up by HS2.
 
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FMerrymon

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Doing that required that the later phases all be completed in full. The project suffers almost total collapse in benefits if those projects are not all completed.
And here we are now as a result, with a very high capacity line that will likely never be used at more than a fraction of its capability.

Its not a total collapse in benefits, but large reduction in value. A decision made by just two people and now politically complex to resume. But we should.

HS2's original plan for Euston was extremely generous in platform capacity. To the point that a train from Birmingham would spend more time waiting in the platforms at Euston than it would spend moving on the inbound.
Numerous high speed rail termini operate far more intensely than the original Euston plan.

William Barter said 10 at a squeeze, but you need the 11th for resilience. The approaches are also a limiting factor.

The conversion from technical headway to operational headways was very generous in terms of including padding in the original HS2 estimates.

18 trains per hour was to be achieved with a technical headway of only 150 seconds at 360kph.
It's unlikely that, short of a total service collapse, that trains would ever truly crowd on the route.

And on the very rare cases that that happens, you can always resort to cutting trains at the start of the core segment and move the passengers.

EDIT: And that 150 second headway was assumed using ETCS signal blocks 2000m long. The cost of fitting much shorter blocks would be a negligible portion of the cost of the scheme and could get technical headways under 100 seconds at 300kph (400m blocks). That's especially true as in the 15 years we've been waiting the long awaited ETCS L2/3 Hybrid has finally entered revenue service.

EDIT #2: Source on the technical headway was the Bombardier report for HS2 'Capacity evaluation for ERTMS (European Rail Traffic Management System) Level 2 operation on HS2' from 2011.

Great, but the trains won't reach their top speed unless they are behind in some way. Missing a slot means the one behind can speed up.

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Can GWR cope with the extra traffic east of Reading?

We can't funnel long distance passengers into one voyager an hour currently with those doing shorter distances, but distributed across the many services to London from Reading, its not going to be many extra.
 
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MarkyT

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The timings for Reading and Oxford to the midlands and north are here: https://x.com/EngFocus/status/1998849251044991282?s=20. Not all the current timings are for direct services. Southampton might be a little messier changing at Reading & OOC, but would still be a 45-50min saving to Manchester.

Why do you think fares would be more expensive via OOC? XC are already quite expensive because they have little seat capacity. Why would you not funnel people through OOC?
These savings are versus existing XC routings I assume, and I think perhaps the interchange allowances via OOC are optimistic in some cases.

Note I was proposing a new link from HS2 to Oxford and points south via EWR then using the traditional XC route. That could deliver some significant savings over existing XC times via Coventry - Leamington, and the main reason I suggested the idea was to make use of the northern end of the paths vacated by my Buckingham/Brackley trains branching off at Wendover.

Approaching London, the GWML is already very busy, especially at peak times. Do we really want most of the XC passengers currently heading south on Voyagers via Banbury switching to HS2 then trying to get on already crowded GWR expresses at OOC.
 

aron2smith

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All along the stretch north of Aylesbury, HS2 are building ready for the Aylesbury link - you can see all the bridges and structures are 4 track in this video of Quainton to Calvert
. This is where Aylesbury should benefit and the plan is to run into OOC as well. That would make Aylesbury to Manchester around 2hr05. For new towns, we should be looking at building them along lines freed up by HS2.
I'm confused by what you mean. There is no HS2 station planned at or near Aylesbury. Also are any of the Manchester services planned to use HS2 instead of WCML? Hard to tell what services will run on it beyond Curzon Street with all the curtailments to HS2.
 

FMerrymon

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I'm confused by what you mean. There is no HS2 station planned at or near Aylesbury. Also are any of the Manchester services planned to use HS2 instead of WCML? Hard to tell what services will run on it beyond Curzon Street with all the curtailments to HS2.

Its passive provision for the EWR route from Aylesbury to MK. Not funded for completion, but the passive provision is for earthworks for double track alongside HS2 and relaying the track to the waste facility at a higher standard, all part of the HS2 build.

The overall aim is to achieve this
 

aron2smith

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Its passive provision for the EWR route from Aylesbury to MK. Not funded for completion, but the passive provision is for earthworks for double track alongside HS2 and relaying the track to the waste facility at a higher standard, all part of the HS2 build.

The overall aim is to achieve this
I knew Aylesbury was supposed to be connected to Winslow and the rest of EWR (a single track exists for freight currently) but didn't know about the rest of it. Thanks for sharing. Hopefully this plan happens, we need a lot more regional connectivity.
 

30907

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Additional shorter-distance London-focussed HS traffic might be handled by extra junctions leading to the classic network rather than building expensive and poorly sited new station facilities on the high-speed line itself. ...

The paths vacated by these trains leaving the mainline might be used further north by a new HS service between the North West/Midlands and Oxford/Reading/Southampton via a second new junction near Chetwode swinging west to meet EWR.
An interesting variant, worth pursuing but still a long way ahead.
It's not really quite the same though.

Given that the journey time from Paris Lyon is very much longer.

They are proposing end to end high speed rail joruneys, without many stops, of well under an hour.
I - and evidently others - thought your point was about the multiple destinations rather than the short length of the "core" - which is comparable to Paris to Lille (plus Arras, Dunkerque, Boulogne, Brussels, London).

BTW it has the original Gare Betterave which as mentioned now only serves traffic to South of Paris.
 
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Also if it is really for capacity and nothing else why not have half a dozen stops south of Birmingham like the Japanese would do?
If you think of HS2 as an extra pair of tracks for the WCML and the Chiltern line and not a separate line (or think of the existing lines as the HS2 slow lines), they already in effect have stations in the locations you mention and the fastest trains already pass through without stopping at these stations so why would you stop trains that you are seeking to speed up further at locations such as these when existing fast trains don’t stop?

As HS2 is about providing capacity to large cities some distance from London it would be difficult in both timetabling and revenue terms to stop trains in locations such as a new Aylesbury Parkway for example. If stopping a service at Aylesbury results in a path being lost then the benefits of stopping need to outweigh:
  • The cost of the c.1000 seats that could be on the lost service +
  • The journey time penalty for people on the slower service +
  • The cost of additional infrastructure (station and passing loops) +
  • The additional service costs of longer journey times, additional servicing and potentially additional rolling stock.
The benefits therefore need to be substantial to outweigh the above which is difficult to see being achieved when the financial impacts on fare revenue are considered.

For example, an anytime day return from Aylesbury to London is £43.40 whereas from Manchester on Avanti services is £386.00. Every seat taken by an Aylesbury commuter is a potential seat that could be sold for much more to someone travelling a longer distance so if you are stopping high speed trains you need to be absolutely sure you aren’t selling your seats cheaper than you otherwise could by doing so now and in the future. This would be offset if you had as much demand travelling north as south but there will be much more demand travelling into London than north from here.

I think HS2 have got it right with the proposed Euston > Old Oak Common > Birmingham Interchange stations and no others in the south.

Where I think they could have done much better however is:
  • The poor marketing and communication of the benefits HS2 will bring through the capacity for services to make additional stops at places like Watford Junction, Milton Keynes, Hadden and Thame Parkway etc. as the fastest trains from the WCML will be removed allowing more stops on existing services and the substantial uplift in capacity meaning Chiltern services to Birmingham need to stop more frequently to fill up. I would have published future indicative timetables to make this clear.
  • Adding in some additional infrastructure improvements which whilst would increase the budget (but not materially in overall percentage terms) would make the project more palatable to the communities affected by construction but with fewer direct benefits. This would include delivering the Old Oak Common Chiltern terminating platforms and Aylesbury to East West Rail link at the same time as HS2.
 

Bletchleyite

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For example, an anytime day return from Aylesbury to London is £43.40 whereas from Manchester on Avanti services is £386.00. Every seat taken by an Aylesbury commuter is a potential seat that could be sold for much more to someone travelling a longer distance so if you are stopping high speed trains you need to be absolutely sure you aren’t selling your seats cheaper than you otherwise could by doing so now and in the future. This would be offset if you had as much demand travelling north as south but there will be much more demand travelling into London than north from here.

I think this misses the point of a Buckinghamshire or Maple Cross Parkway. This wouldn't be for travelling to London, but *from* it - indeed, for the exact reason you state I wouldn't expect tickets from such a station to/from London to be sold at all. These Parkway stations tend to do well - consider Stockport as an example, because most people live in suburbs, not in city centres.
 

NCT

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Generating a load of rail heading car traffic seems an odd NIMBY appeasing strategy.
 

MarkyT

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I think this misses the point of a Buckinghamshire or Maple Cross Parkway. This wouldn't be for travelling to London, but *from* it - indeed, for the exact reason you state I wouldn't expect tickets from such a station to/from London to be sold at all. These Parkway stations tend to do well - consider Stockport as an example, because most people live in suburbs, not in city centres.
Stockport may have a popular Intercity station with a big car park, but it is a major urban centre and transport interchange in its own right, so the station isn't just a car-oriented railhead. It's far more like Old Oak Common or Stratford than a rural parkway. I'm sure Stockport also has a lot of Manchester-bound commuter traffic too. Your point that many people live in the suburbs is very true but many people also live closer in to the centre and in suburbs on the opposite side of the city centre; a stop on a mainline leading away from a major city in one direction can often only serve the suburbs on that side of the city very well.
 

Bletchleyite

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Stockport may have a popular Intercity station with a big car park, but it is a major urban centre and transport interchange in its own right, so the station isn't just a car-oriented railhead.

It primarily is with regard to London trains. Many of the users of London services are likely driving there from leafy, rich South Manchester and north Cheshire and aren't locals. If HS2 2B ever happens, Manchester Airport station will replace most of its role in that sense.

It's far more like Old Oak Common or Stratford than a rural parkway.

It's really not anything like Old Oak Common. It has a bit in common with Stratford in terms of its local transport role, but not in terms of the Parkway role because it's much easier to drive to (just off the M60) than either OOC or Stratford.

I'm sure Stockport also has a lot of Manchester-bound commuter traffic too. Your point that many people live in the suburbs is very true but many people also live closer in to the centre and in suburbs on the opposite side of the city centre; a stop on a mainline leading away from a major city in one direction can often only serve the suburbs on that side of the city very well.

Fortunately for the railway, that side of the city is the very well off part, which means more demand for parking one's Range Rover up to pay a full price Anytime Return for a trip to London. It's replicating this near London (Buckinghamshire is one of the richest parts of the country) that I see as a massive lost opportunity. These people aren't going to drive to Aylesbury and take an hour-long stopper into Marylebone then faff about getting to Euston from there, nor probably even drive to Tring* even with its direct into Euston, they'll just drive the Rangie all the way to where they're going, or possibly drive to Heathrow (which is far easier to drive to than OOC or Euston) and fly on BA.

* Tring may as well be called "South Buckinghamshire Parkway" - that's a significant proportion of its usage given how slow (albeit civilised) the Aylesbury line is and given how Tring itself is little more than an oversized village.
 

NCT

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The appropriate solution for the Chilterns is a Dutchified timetable to Moor Street when punters pick up HS2 services to the north from Curzon Street. 1.5 hours at 160km/h plus the rest of the way at ~300km/h at a half-hourly frequency for most destinations is a high-quality journey by any European standard.
 
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