Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

[TreacleMiller]

Shame, entire project needs scrapping.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So again, over the life of the project, not currently or in the next 5-10 years, there will be no growth.

I think we have hit peak travel, yes. Peak commuting was 2019.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

This is a flawed argument. I was at Marylebone in the evening peak last week and most trains were full and standing. I myself was on the 1654 Birmingham Moor Street - Marylebone on Wednesday, the 4-car 168 was full and standing and I couldn't get a seat until Leamington. Chiltern would love to run more / longer trains to ease overcrowding but they simply don't have the fleet available at the moment and even if they did, would the DfT allow them to run more trains? This is the reality of the Government-funded railway.

But that misses the point. Turning the Chiltern line into a 12 car electric railway and upping the present Birmingham 2tph to 4 would be far, far, far cheaper than HS2.

 

[HSTEd]

Only if it's cheap. That will take massive ongoing operating subsidy.

At the moment people are choosing LNR and Chiltern in droves. Partially that will be because of Avanti's rubbishness, but it's also because it's cheap - once the Avanti issue is fixed I just can't see it going back.

Moving people on HS2 to Birmingham will cost the railway far less than LNR or Avanti.

The rolling stock would just be fitted with Class 395 interiors and a single crew member would be able to move far more people than a crew on LNWR per shift.

There will be no reason at all for the railway and thus the state to subsidise journeys on the classic line that can be done on HS2

 

[Bletchleyite]

Moving people on HS2 to Birmingham will cost the railway far less than LNR or Avanti.

That isn't true, because LNR will still run for passengers to intermediates.

 

[RailWonderer]

Sadly, turned out to be fake news. The Chancellor said its going ahead to Euston as planned. Just image how many cost efficient improvements across the country could have been made for just 10% of the cost of HS2.

Politicians never lie. They are always very honest, aren't they? That said I give him more authority than the Sun but it still isn't certain. That said it would be strange if HS2 did not go into Central London, as that is where much of the demand would come from.

 

[12LDA28C]

I think we have hit peak travel, yes. Peak commuting was 2019.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==



But that misses the point. Turning the Chiltern line into a 12 car electric railway and upping the present Birmingham 2tph to 4 would be far, far, far cheaper than HS2.

I do love the way you fling around quotes about how easy it is to do this and that, like it would be the simplest thing in the world to completely rebuild the Chiltern mainline with OHLE. I'm sure the years of line closures, delays and diversions would be welcomed by existing passengers. And unless you've costed it, I suggest you haven't the faintest idea how much it would cost.

 

[popeter45]

It is clear and has been for some time that many "elected representatives" don't represent the electorate views or interests, and that this affects both main political parties. Rendering the system ineffective

This is even worse in Whitehall, where civil servants undermine the politicians that do try to represent. Contempt for the electorate is rife, and relative reasoning to justify ignoring mass wishes is commonplace.

Hence HS2 being emblematic of much that is wrong with the country. It's "democratic" on paper, in much the same way that a local health trust is "serving patients better than ever".

Neither snide civil servants nor hopeless politicians seem to realise that the onus is on them to change their ways and in particular the way they lead.

As one of these civil servants you seem to decry can I just say how far from reality this is

Role of us is to implement what's asked of us by the minister of our said departments, this claim of secretive scheming to screw over the public just isn't a thing, we are always thrown under the bus as scapegoats with such wording

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I think we have hit peak travel, yes. Peak commuting was 2019.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==



But that misses the point. Turning the Chiltern line into a 12 car electric railway and upping the present Birmingham 2tph to 4 would be far, far, far cheaper than HS2.

You said before Avanti trains are empty, surely this is because of the poor timetable and strikes over COVID?

I think your view is interesting because surely, as train enthusiasts, we should be encouraging less WfH? After all, that's pretty much the whole point of the railways is commuting, since we're not hauling coal and other manufactured goods around in wagons and vans anymore.

Whilst I would love the railways to be busy again, I do admit that a return to the office needs to be built on resolving issues outside of the railway.

 

[zwk500]

I think we have hit peak travel, yes. Peak commuting was 2019.

So there will be no population growth in the London area?

But that misses the point. Turning the Chiltern line into a 12 car electric railway and upping the present Birmingham 2tph to 4 would be far, far, far cheaper than HS2.

No it wouldn't. It might be cheaper, but probably not by a substantial margin. The Chiltern Line has very few platforms of 12-car length and so would require substantial periods of closure and disruption just to get to 12 cars, and then you've got to rebuild all the structures (Including St John's Wood Tunnel) for OLE.

 

[BrianW]

IBut that misses the point. Turning the Chiltern line into a 12 car electric railway and upping the present Birmingham 2tph to 4 would be far, far, far cheaper than HS2.

I think that's broadly what was envisaged 'back in the day', as exemplified by the Chilterns-ish stretch- Greenford- Old Oak etc, which had been for some time singled after Beeching/ rationalisation to Euston- Birmingham NS- Wolv HL - Shrews etc. Benefit of hindsight?! How about upping Marylebone- Birmingham anyway?

 

[HSTEd]

That isn't true, because LNR will still run for passengers to intermediates.

One would imagine that once all London to Birmingham or Birmingham International traffic is removed that the West Midlands Trains optimised timetable will look rather different to what it does today.
ALthough I think the bulk of the savings will indeed be from gutting the Avanti timetable.

Same for Chiltern, I expect there will be substantial operational savings to be made, especially in the later case.

 

[FOH]

Thank goodness. I was so sad to hear the change of heart. Just look at the Elizabeth line running at double the expected load. This country needs, wants and will use all the infrastructure it can get. Anything else just chokes our ability to succeed

 

[class26]

Shame, entire project needs scrapping.

which would be the worse possible outcome as squillions have been spent for what ?

I think it will get built as predicted , just not in one go. HS1 orignally didn`t go to St Pancras
Once opened and in use I suspect there will demand for extensions ie Golborne, Nottingham, Euston etc, etc

 

[BrianW]

I do love the way you fling around quotes about how easy it is to do this and that, like it would be the simplest thing in the world to completely rebuild the Chiltern mainline with OHLE. I'm sure the years of line closures, delays and diversions would be welcomed by existing passengers. And unless you've costed it, I suggest you haven't the faintest idea how much it would cost.

Chiltern needs electrifying anyway, unless batteries or hydrogen make swift progress. The folk of Marylebone and Birmingham and the rich areas in between should be demanding for de-carboniising.

 

[12LDA28C]

So there will be no population growth in the London area?

No it wouldn't. It might be cheaper, but probably not by a substantial margin. The Chiltern Line has very few platforms of 12-car length and so would require substantial periods of closure and disruption just to get to 12 cars, and then you've got to rebuild all the structures (Including St John's Wood Tunnel) for OLE.

Indeed. The only 12-car platforms on the whole of the Chiltern route are Platforms 2 & 3 at Banbury and Platform 2 at Leamington Spa. Not even Marylebone can accommodate 12 cars.

 

[zwk500]

Chiltern needs electrifying anyway, unless batteries or hydrogen make swift progress.

It does, but that's a different discussion.

The folk of Marylebone and Birmingham and the rich areas in between should be demanding for de-carboniising.

They are, just for everbody else to do it so they can driver their land rovers around perfectly fine roads.

 

[matt]

As this has now been confirmed by the Government that it will run to Euston this thread has run its course