Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

[Bletchleyite]

Extending platforms would be prohibitively expensive given the infrastructure. You have to think of singal boxes, bridges, viaducts and houses built around stations. It would not be possible for many stations.

It wouldn't be needed for that many stations. It's about ten or so for the full HS2 like service.

Will HS2 really be needed with passenger use stagnating since Covid? All HS2 would have done was extend the commuter belt but if it only starts from OOC then it won't even do that. £500bn to not even increase service frequencies is an enormous waste of money. HS2 only makes sense form a multi decade future proofing point of view, and even on that basis we simply cannot afford it today.

Then cancel it completely. Building half of it is pointless.

 

[The Planner]

The main point of HS2 is to create additional capacity on the south WCML south of Hanslope Junction and on the approach to Manchester and Birmingham on the 2-track sections. It doesn't increase InterCity service frequencies. It does increase train lengths, but that could be done a lot more cheaply than building a high speed route - just lengthen platforms to 400m and rebuild classic Euston to have 400m platforms.

You aren't naïve enough to not understand the implications of that and the stifling of demand a massive rebuild of Euston and other stations would incur without an alternative to carry people.

 

[DC1989]

They just need to get on a build it (and crossrail 2!)

 

[12LDA28C]

£500bn to not even increase service frequencies is an enormous waste of money.

Please provide a link to evidence that HS2 is now predicted to cost £500bn. Or is that yet more unfounded speculation by the anti-HS2 brigade?

 

[Horizon22]

Using that logic it would be cheaper not to run any services on HS2. There needs to be consideration as to what the income impact would be. If you're going to miss out on 10% of income, even if not building it is cheaper it still may cost you more overall.

Obviously the cheapest option is cancel all work and stop now, but the net benefit would be 0, because of all that cost you’ve achieved effectively nothing.

Just because something is cheaper to do now doesn’t mean it will work out cheaper in the long run if you lose considerable benefits and end up making up for the cheapness later on anyway. Classic British infrastructure short-termism.

XC to Reading, GWR to Paddington, HS2 Euston to Birmingham is about the same journey time as XC to Birmingham.

However chances there's going to be the potential to do it at a higher frequency (although maybe a bit slower if you use the GWR services from Basingstoke to Reading).

You could do GWR and HS2 to/from OOC, which would save another 30 minutes or so.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It wouldn't be needed for that many stations. It's about ten or so for the full HS2 like service.



Then cancel it completely. Building half of it is pointless.

Its not pointless Old Oak Common will have interchange with GWR and Crossrail at least and many journeys would have originated there anyhow.

Cash is short and we can't afford not to push on with all the other projects so Euston will have to wait.

 

[12LDA28C]

You aren't naïve enough to not understand the implications of that and the stifling of demand a massive rebuild of Euston and other stations would incur without an alternative to carry people.

Indeed. This seems to be a recurring theme where it's claimed to be a simple thing to extend every station on the WCML with the associated resignalling, track realignment, relocation of S&C and so on, not to mention years of line closures, cancellations and diversions etc.

 

[The Ham]

Obviously the cheapest option is cancel all work and stop now, but the net benefit would be 0, because of all that cost you’ve achieved effectively nothing.

Just because something is cheaper to do now doesn’t mean it will work out cheaper in the long run if you lose considerable benefits and end up making up for the cheapness later on anyway. Classic British infrastructure short-termism.

Indeed

You could do GWR and HS2 to/from OOC, which would save another 30 minutes or so.

I was using that 30 minutes to allow for change times, which is probably a bit too generous, however I did so to highlight that OOC from (much of) Hampshire (or South Coast - such as Southampton, Bournemouth and Poole) is a viable route.

 

[Parjon]

you still need to get the tube from Euston but Crossrail from Old Oak Common serves the west end as well so how much of time penalty would it be.

Euston is in central London. Most people don't get on the tube on exiting long distance services. Regents park/Portland Street, Oxford Street, kings cross employment zone and much more is all within easy walking distance.

 

[Howardh]

They just need to get on a build it (and crossrail 2!)

Scrap Crossrail 2!! There already is a crossrail, N - S, Thameslink. Think the issue is NE to SW London though (?), but as far as Thameslink goes, then ideally even before HS2 is completed, Euston is linked to St Pancras by some kind of underground moving walkway to avoid the 10-15' walk or the sometimes even longer tube journey!

That should be in the speculation thread, but if and when HS2 arrives at Euston, onward travellers still have the grotty old network to get them around, notably the Northern Line, and as I say, that awkward transfer to St Pancras for Eurostar. Would Crossrail actually serve Euston to get us southbound quicker? Or St Pancras/Kings Cross where there are arguably more passengers but leaving Euston in the cold?

 

[RailWonderer]

Please provide a link to evidence that HS2 is now predicted to cost £500bn. Or is that yet more unfounded speculation by the anti-HS2 brigade?

Budgets balloon, just like the GWML and MML electrifications, and Crossrail. HS2 was quoted in railway magazines and the Times as £56bn in 2018, £88bn in 2019 and £106bn in 2020.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Its not pointless Old Oak Common will have interchange with GWR and Crossrail at least and many journeys would have originated there anyhow.

No, they won't. People want to go to central London - Paddington is bad enough. It's like terminating London to Liverpool services at Runcorn or London to Manchester at Stockport. Hardly anyone will use it if it doesn't go to central London, it'll be a laughable white elephant.

Long distance rail's selling point is city centre to city centre (or Parkway to city centre). This is something with most of the disadvantages of flying without the advantage (500mph speed).

 

[Howardh]

Its not pointless Old Oak Common will have interchange with GWR and Crossrail at least and many journeys would have originated there anyhow.

Cash is short and we can't afford not to push on with all the other projects so Euston will have to wait.

No way. HS2 becomes unuable for the majority who would use it into Central London/Eurostar/journeys south. As far as I'm concerned, HS2 isn't a spend of billions to help develop the west of London.

 

[12LDA28C]

Budgets balloon, just like the GWML and MML electrifications, and Crossrail. HS2 was quoted in railway magazines and the Times as £56bn in 2018, £88bn in 2019 and £106bn in 2020.

So no evidence then, just a wild guess.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Budgets balloon, just like the GWML and MML electrifications, and Crossrail. HS2 was quoted in railway magazines and the Times as £56bn in 2018, £88bn in 2019 and £106bn in 2020.

unless we get hyper inflation it aint going to cost £500B maybe 120-130B

 

[Howardh]

Budgets balloon, just like the GWML and MML electrifications, and Crossrail. HS2 was quoted in railway magazines and the Times as £56bn in 2018, £88bn in 2019 and £106bn in 2020.

So stopping it now is actually saving more - the balance between the original cost and the now expected cost - and I can only imagine that will rise too!

Sir Humphrey - "we've spent £20bn, the cost was originally £60bn, it will cost £120bn, so scrapping it saves £100bn"!!!!

NB I've made those figures up to prove a point!

 

[The Planner]

So stopping it now is actually saving more - the balance between the original cost and the now expected cost - and I can only imagine that will rise too!

Sir Humphrey - "we've spent £20bn, the cost was originally £60bn, it will cost £120bn, so scrapping it saves £100bn"!!!!

NB I've made those figures up to prove a point!

Do you genuinely think that money will be diverted to something else? because you will be disappointed...

 

[RailWonderer]

So no evidence then, just a wild guess.

unless we get hyper inflation it aint going to cost £500B maybe 120-130B

So stopping it now is actually saving more - the balance between the original cost and the now expected cost - and I can only imagine that will rise too!

Sir Humphrey - "we've spent £20bn, the cost was originally £60bn, it will cost £120bn, so scrapping it saves £100bn"!!!!

NB I've made those figures up to prove a point!

The point is the government cannot continue with HS2 in this era of costcutting without substantial sacrifice for many years to come in all other areas of the country's road and rail spending and that is too big a sacrifice to make and all you'd have ae the end of it would be a significant regional inequality, ageing infrastructure, more TSRs etc, and a shiny new white elephant line that doensn't even go into Central London.

 

[irish_rail]

I forsee an issue for Crossrail here. The trains at present always appear very busy , even full at times. If HS2 terminates at Old Oak, this will dramatically increase passenger numbers, and not to mention (as certain posters on here like to keep reminding me) , most people (apparently) on GWR intercity services will prefer to use Old Oak instead of Paddington going forward, so you have to add these 1000s and 1000s of people onto the crossrail route too. I don't think it would cope to be honest.

 

[Starmill]

I don't doubt there are serious funding issues.

Indeed, yes. Pretty much all government-funded or even part-funded capital projects are suffering from serious inflation during the lag time between authorisation and final contract prices. Sometimes it is also not possible to get any contracts that don't include a degree of price variability too, so having signed isn't the guarantee some might like.

 

[Horizon22]

Scrap Crossrail 2!! There already is a crossrail, N - S, Thameslink. Think the issue is NE to SW London though (?), but as far as Thameslink goes, then ideally even before HS2 is completed, Euston is linked to St Pancras by some kind of underground moving walkway to avoid the 10-15' walk or the sometimes even longer tube journey!

Yes it is - relieving lines into Waterloo, the busy Victoria line and heading towards either Kings Cross or Euston and the NW London. It serves different parts of London and would meet Crossrail 1 (Elizabeth Line) at Tottenham Court Road.

If the success and popularity of the Elizabeth line is anything to go by then Crossrail 2 might be back (although still far, far down it) on the agenda if funding is there.

 

[12LDA28C]

The point is the government cannot continue with HS2 in this era of costcutting without substantial sacrifice for many years to come in all other areas of the country's road and rail spending and that is too big a sacrifice to make and all you'd have ae the end of it would be a significant regional inequality, ageing infrastructure, more TSRs etc, and a shiny new white elephant line that doensn't even go into Central London.

You seem to be assuming that the reports in the Sun are accurate. Unsurprisingly, the ever-vocal anti-HS2 brigade will jump on this as another reason why HS2 should not be built and construction must be stopped immediately. Whatever.

Personally I don't read the Sun and certainly take anything claimed in that rag with a pinch of salt. I suggest you do the same.

 

[Parjon]

Do you genuinely think that money will be diverted to something else? because you will be disappointed...

The main thing is that all that money doesn't find its way into the pockets of its current trajectory.

You can't put a price on democracy and a just society. Not one penny should have been spent on this project. What's needed is a saving of what can be saved, and accountability for what can't be.

 

[12LDA28C]

Not one penny should have been spent on this project.

And why is that?

 

[The Planner]

The main thing is that all that money doesn't find its way into the pockets of its current trajectory.

You can't put a price on democracy and a just society. Not one penny should have been spent on this project. What's needed is a saving of what can be saved, and accountability for what can't be.

Ok, you don't like HS2, what is the alternative?

 

[zwk500]

The main thing is that all that money doesn't find its way into the pockets of its current trajectory.

You can't put a price on democracy and a just society. Not one penny should have been spent on this project. What's needed is a saving of what can be saved, and accountability for what can't be.

Democracy is the tyranny of the majority. The elected representatives have voted for this project. How is that undemocratic?

 

[Howardh]

Yes it is - relieving lines into Waterloo, the busy Victoria line and heading towards either Kings Cross or Euston and the NW London. It serves different parts of London and would meet Crossrail 1 (Elizabeth Line) at Tottenham Court Road.

If the success and popularity of the Elizabeth line is anything to go by then Crossrail 2 might be back (although still far, far down it) on the agenda if funding is there.

Of couse we in Manchester would suggest the money should be spent here to get passengers the shorter (therefore cheaper?) distance between Piccadilly and Victoria! But even if HS2 were scrapped immediately, just think how the money gone so far - wasted really - could have improved the existing infrastructure, Manchester may well have got it's Picc/Vic tunnel, or Liverpool a direct link by rail to Speak and Ringway airports. But that's by the by I suppose, I doubt much money saved from scrapping HS2 would be used on current lines, so it's damned if we do, damned if we don't.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ok, you don't like HS2, what is the alternative?

That argument doesn't work post-COVID. If we hadn't started it, I'd be steadfast against, just in favour of smaller interventions around the big cities.

 

[The Planner]

That argument doesn't work post-COVID. If we hadn't started it, I'd be steadfast against, just in favour of smaller interventions around the big cities.

So you are suggesting that there will be no growth at all over the next 5-10 years?

 

[YorkshireBear]

From the BBC live news feed.

Hunt: HS2 will go to central London​

In the last few moments, Jeremy Hunt has reiterated that HS2 will go all the way to London Euston station as planned.
It follows reports that the high-speed rail line may no longer reach central London.
"I don't see any conceivable circumstance in which that would not end up at Euston," he says.

Is that squashing a rumour or because he said it, the opposite is true and that is confirmation it will never reach central London.