Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

[Taunton]

I don't suppose many users of HS2 will actually be going to Euston. They'll be going to various parts of London and southern England, and many of these destinations will still be accessible from Old Oak via the Elizabeth Line, GWR main line, etc.

Even though we live at Canary Wharf, it would be more convenient, especially with luggage, to take the Elizabeth to Old Oak and make a single (and doubtless fully accessible) change, rather than transferring to the Tube to get to Euston. However, for departures on a long distance trip I think, like many others, I would still prefer to board at the starting point where there is a choice of seats, rather than at an intermediate stop where all the good seats have gone.

 

[Howardh]

Ok, you don't like HS2, what is the alternative?

Personally, I was 50/50. Yes the north and Scotland needs a fast link to avoid air travel, but it's horrendously expensive and would the majority of future users be able to afford tickets? But now it seems to be taking so long, and becoming even more expensive, and there are other demands for fiscal spend, plus that the west and east coast lines can do the job given the funding and competant TOC's it's looking like a white elephant painted in luminous white. And now even the suggestion that it might not run to central London....

...edit...which reading the above suggests that Hunt has said it will. has he put a time scale on, or left out the word "eventually"?

 

[aavm]

Sadly, turned out to be fake news. The Chancellor said its going ahead to Euston as planned. Just image how many cost efficient improvements across the country could have been made for just 10% of the cost of HS2.

 

[Fazaar1889]

From the BBC live news feed.



Is that squashing a rumour or because he said it, the opposite is true and that is confirmation it will never reach central London.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-64413975?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=63d3b36b1e5a29791b50e2e7%26WATCH%3A%20Chancellor%20doubles%20down%20on%20government%27s%20commitment%20to%20HS2%262023-01-27T11%3A26%3A55.774Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:a0709ec0-8569-4295-9b77-4376a25c4e19&pinned_post_asset_id=63d3b36b1e5a29791b50e2e7&pinned_post_type=share

Its a video of hunt and he says that it will go to Eutson

 

[duncanp]

From the BBC live news feed.



Is that squashing a rumour or because he said it, the opposite is true and that is confirmation it will never reach central London.

And this story is now going to be one of the items on the Jeremy Whine show on BBC Radio 2 from 12 noon.

Jeremy Whine has been rabbitting on just now about "..the story in The Sun..." and saying ("surprise, surprise") that perhaps they should just turn it into a cycle track.

Presumably he doesn't read the BBC New Live feed, or perhaps he is ignoring it because it doesn't say what he wants it to say.

 

[Xavi]

The problem with HS2 is inflation creep adds 100's of million if not billions to the budget now without any physical return to be seen for nearly a decade whereas the Dft also needs to fund projects in the here and now that will produce something that can be celebrated with a few years. Remember they fund the major roads programme as well which has far more kudos with the majority of people.

Wrong, fiscal multipliers used by OBR in their forecast indicate the GDP (not the operational benefits) is £2.9 for every £1 of investment on HS2 (and other public infrastructure projects) over 4 years, and that generates 60p of tax revenue too. That’s a higher impact on GDP than any other type of spend, e.g. welfare. None of this is factored into the cost-benefit analysis for the railway itself.

The Swiss and nordics understand fiscal multipliers but the UK since 1979. From then it’s been short-term tax cuts for votes and look where we’ve ended up!

In a separate article today the Daily Telegraph is promoting public capital investment of at least 4% GDP.

 

[Bletchleyite]

So you are suggesting that there will be no growth at all over the next 5-10 years?

Presently LNR are operating 2/3 of the capacity they could be operating if they went to full 12 car operation. Presently Chiltern are operating nowhere near capacity. Avanti trains are running close to empty despite not running a full service. Work from home is the future, business travel has tanked and it is not coming back - likely it will continue to slowly reduce now. What is doing well is LNR to Birmingham - that says to me that in our new predominantly leisure market what we need for Brum is a metro style LNR service to Euston and no Brum Avanti service, or perhaps 1tph and 6tph 12 car LNR - that's more capacity than you'll ever need.

And we're not going to get lots of people out of cars unless we're willing to cough up the subsidy to make it way cheaper.

So no, I'm not confident there will be any significant growth of intercity travel, and where there is there is scope to provide for it already. Nor will there be growth of commuting; it will continue downwards.

The one thing we may need is freight capacity, but there are much cheaper options than HS2 to gain that.

 

[12LDA28C]

Of couse we in Manchester would suggest the money should be spent here to get passengers the shorter (therefore cheaper?) distance between Piccadilly and Victoria! But even if HS2 were scrapped immediately, just think how the money gone so far - wasted really - could have improved the existing infrastructure, Manchester may well have got it's Picc/Vic tunnel, or Liverpool a direct link by rail to Speak and Ringway airports. But that's by the by I suppose, I doubt much money saved from scrapping HS2 would be used on current lines, so it's damned if we do, damned if we don't.

The funds for building HS2 were provided only to build HS2. If the scheme was cancelled, the money 'saved' would not be spent elsewhere. If HS2 had not been approved, the money to fund it simply wouldn't exist.

 

[Howardh]

Presently LNR are operating 2/3 of the capacity they could be operating if they went to full 12 car operation. Presently Chiltern are operating nowhere near capacity. Avanti trains are running close to empty despite not running a full service. Work from home is the future, business travel has tanked and it is not coming back - likely it will continue to slowly reduce now. What is doing well is LNR to Birmingham - that says to me that in our new predominantly leisure market what we need for Brum is a metro style LNR service to Euston and no Brum Avanti service, or perhaps 1tph and 6tph 12 car LNR - that's more capacity than you'll ever need.

And we're not going to get lots of people out of cars unless we're willing to cough up the subsidy to make it way cheaper.

So no, I'm not confident there will be any significant growth of intercity travel, and where there is there is scope to provide for it already. Nor will there be growth of commuting; it will continue downwards.

I agree with that, what's the point of an expensive trip to a business meeting in london when you can do it via skype for free? Even if documents need signing, think that can be done on-line now? Think going forward, yes there will be commuters and business travel, but won't leisure travel take over? (Jokes...peak hours will be 9-12am!!)

 

[12LDA28C]

Sadly, turned out to be fake news. The Chancellor said its going ahead to Euston as planned. Just image how many cost efficient improvements across the country could have been made for just 10% of the cost of HS2.

Again, if HS2 was not approved, the money to fund it would not exist. It is not 'available' to spend elsewhere.

 

[Parjon]

Democracy is the tyranny of the majority. The elected representatives have voted for this project. How is that undemocratic?

It is clear and has been for some time that many "elected representatives" don't represent the electorate views or interests, and that this affects both main political parties. Rendering the system ineffective

This is even worse in Whitehall, where civil servants undermine the politicians that do try to represent. Contempt for the electorate is rife, and relative reasoning to justify ignoring mass wishes is commonplace.

Hence HS2 being emblematic of much that is wrong with the country. It's "democratic" on paper, in much the same way that a local health trust is "serving patients better than ever".

Neither snide civil servants nor hopeless politicians seem to realise that the onus is on them to change their ways and in particular the way they lead.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Again, if HS2 was not approved, the money to fund it would not exist. It is not 'available' to spend elsewhere.

Isn't a loan based on future growth or something?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree with that, what's the point of an expensive trip to a business meeting in london when you can do it via skype for free? Even if documents need signing, think that can be done on-line now? Think going forward, yes there will be commuters and business travel, but won't leisure travel take over? (Jokes...peak hours will be 9-12am!!)

Leisure travel is the future, and leisure passengers just want it cheap and direct (yes, not OOC), they care less about it being fast.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

Isn't a loan based on future growth or something?

It is, yes, and that's now a fallacy too. COVID has utterly wrecked its entire business model. We could decide to build it anyway for reasons of national pride and for the future and due to the sunk cost, and I'm OK with that, but in that case build ALL of it. If not building all of it, bin it off. The business model is shot - national pride and the future are the only remaining justifications.

 

[D869]

If a vital tunnel from OOC to Euston is deemed too expensive, then how could the one in Manchester be justified? It can't IMO and I think we should start calling this project HSCrewe because that's as far north as it will get.

 

[Parjon]

Ok, you don't like HS2, what is the alternative?

Don't do it, as it isn't needed. Especially post-COVID when most weekday long distance trains to Manchester and Birmingham are more than half empty.

 

[PeterC]

More realistically, the link to Euston will eventually be built, with the money saved by cancelling everything north of Birmingham, as has always been the likely outcome of the project.

I remember saying something similar right at the beginning of the project, to be told I was talking nonsense.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If a vital tunnel from OOC to Euston is deemed too expensive, then how could the one in Manchester be justified? It can't IMO and I think we should start calling this project HSCrewe because that's as far north as it will get.

It just getting to Crewe drives a coach and horses through "it'll relieve Stockport and Styal" too.

The cheap bits are the bits that relieve pieces of railway that are not overly congested. We need all of it or it's a waste of money and should be stopped. Perhaps the money spent on land near Euston could be spent on an expanded classic station, for instance, funded by selling the land on top of it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Please provide a link to evidence that HS2 is now predicted to cost £500bn. Or is that yet more unfounded speculation by the anti-HS2 brigade?

Even Lord Berkeley quoted £160 billion and climbing.
They just use the last figure anybody mentioned, and add 10% or whatever.

Phase 1 is actually at something like £45 billion (with cost pressures), and Phase 2a (Handsacre to Crewe) is another £5-7 billion.
This is from the October 6-monthly report to parliament for this "unaccountable" project.
The forward spend in the DfT IRP is capped at £96 billion (includes rest of HS2 to Manchester, plus NPR).

 

[Horizon22]

From the BBC live news feed.



Is that squashing a rumour or because he said it, the opposite is true and that is confirmation it will never reach central London.

Lots of reports that this was just a media distraction to bury some other bad news coming out.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I remember saying something similar right at the beginning of the project, to be told I was talking nonsense.

Just phase 1 made sense before COVID. Now commuting is dead and dying further, it's a waste of money. LNR could up capacity by a third simply by making everything 12 car and a few more peak extras could be pathed either side of the current ones - we're simply never going to need any more than that.

If you don't believe me, go to the City - it's a ghost town. Almost post-Apocalyptic with the boarded up shop windows etc. The future of office work is WFH.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

Lots of reports that this was just a media distraction to bury some other bad news coming out.

Zahawi's misdeeds?

 

[Horizon22]

I agree with that, what's the point of an expensive trip to a business meeting in london when you can do it via skype for free? Even if documents need signing, think that can be done on-line now? Think going forward, yes there will be commuters and business travel, but won't leisure travel take over? (Jokes...peak hours will be 9-12am!!)

High Speed Rail travel is very popular in other parts of the world whilst business and commuter travel hasn't completely evaporated. Getting to Birmingham in less than an hour will be attractive, to all types of people.

 

[Bletchleyite]

High Speed Rail travel is very popular in other parts of the country and business and commuter travel hasn't completely evaporated suddenly. Getting to Birmingham in less than an hour will be attractive, to all types of people.

Only if it's cheap. That will take massive ongoing operating subsidy.

At the moment people are choosing LNR and Chiltern in droves. Partially that will be because of Avanti's rubbishness, but it's also because it's cheap - once the Avanti issue is fixed I just can't see it going back.

 

[Cross City]

Again, if HS2 was not approved, the money to fund it would not exist. It is not 'available' to spend elsewhere.

Quite. Awful lot of 'stuff written on the side of big red busses' vibes going on in this thread.

There's only one white elephant here and its the fabled non-existent cost savings if HS2 is scrapped.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Lots of reports that this was just a media distraction to bury some other bad news coming out.

Honestly not surprised. I wonder what bad stuff happened now...

 

[Horizon22]

Only if it's cheap. That will take massive ongoing operating subsidy.

At the moment people are choosing LNR and Chiltern in droves. Partially that will be because of Avanti's rubbishness, but it's also because it's cheap - once the Avanti issue is fixed I just can't see it going back.

Well I'd say the latter is certainly more of an impact. They probably would come back, but I think it would be a slow return to Avanti once (if!) it settles.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's only one white elephant here and its the fabled non-existent cost savings if HS2 is scrapped.

Money would now be saved if it was scrapped. The idea of it being borrowed forward is shot due to the near total end of high value business travel which has gone and won't be back.

The present LNR off peak return Brum-Euston is £33. If it costs much more than that, it just won't be used.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

Well I'd say the latter is certainly more of an impact. They probably would come back, but I think it would be a slow return to Avanti once (if!) it settles.

I don't think it will. And the LNR experience is about to get better as the 350/2s go in the bin.

And LNR is walk-up - HS2 won't be - it can't be - because the OOC and tunnel evacuation plans require no standing load. People want flexibility.

 

[Requeststop]

And this story is now going to be one of the items on the Jeremy Whine show on BBC Radio 2 from 12 noon.

Jeremy Whine has been rabbitting on just now about "..the story in The Sun..." and saying ("surprise, surprise") that perhaps they should just turn it into a cycle track.

Presumably he doesn't read the BBC New Live feed, or perhaps he is ignoring it because it doesn't say what he wants it to say.

Now here's a conundrum! Who you going to believe, The Sun, or the discredited and corrupt Tory Government?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Now here's a conundrum! Who you going to believe, The Sun, or the discredited and corrupt Tory Government?

Ignore both?

Vine isn't worth the time either - he seems to spend most of his time discrediting cycling on Twitter.

 

[The Planner]

Don't do it, as it isn't needed. Especially post-COVID when most weekday long distance trains to Manchester and Birmingham are more than half empty.

So again, over the life of the project, not currently or in the next 5-10 years, there will be no growth.

 

[12LDA28C]

Presently LNR are operating 2/3 of the capacity they could be operating if they went to full 12 car operation. Presently Chiltern are operating nowhere near capacity. Avanti trains are running close to empty despite not running a full service. Work from home is the future, business travel has tanked and it is not coming back - likely it will continue to slowly reduce now. What is doing well is LNR to Birmingham - that says to me that in our new predominantly leisure market what we need for Brum is a metro style LNR service to Euston and no Brum Avanti service, or perhaps 1tph and 6tph 12 car LNR - that's more capacity than you'll ever need.

And we're not going to get lots of people out of cars unless we're willing to cough up the subsidy to make it way cheaper.

So no, I'm not confident there will be any significant growth of intercity travel, and where there is there is scope to provide for it already. Nor will there be growth of commuting; it will continue downwards.

The one thing we may need is freight capacity, but there are much cheaper options than HS2 to gain that.

This is a flawed argument. I was at Marylebone in the evening peak last week and most trains were full and standing. I myself was on the 1654 Birmingham Moor Street - Marylebone on Wednesday, the 4-car 168 was full and standing and I couldn't get a seat until Leamington. Chiltern would love to run more / longer trains to ease overcrowding but they simply don't have the fleet available at the moment and even if they did, would the DfT allow them to run more trains? This is the reality of the Government-funded railway.

I can't speak for Avanti as I rarely use them but the oft-repeated claim that everyone is working from home doesn't align with what I see on the railway every day.