Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

[Bletchleyite]

But the main point of HS2 is capacity. Allowing more trains to run into our major cities and a long main north south routes.

The main point of HS2 is to create additional capacity on the south WCML south of Hanslope Junction and on the approach to Manchester and Birmingham on the 2-track sections. It doesn't increase InterCity service frequencies. It does increase train lengths, but that could be done a lot more cheaply than building a high speed route - just lengthen platforms to 400m and rebuild classic Euston to have 400m platforms.

 

[Howardh]

If HS2 terminates at Old Oak Common and not Euston, there would be plenty of potential to redevelop the A40 / M40 corridor from White City towards Ealing. Contrast the near neighbour the M4 corridor and the number of Office Towers which parallel the M4 motorway.
I believe It would be far easier to develop the the Old Oak and M40 corridor than the Euston catchment area.

Sorry, I don't understand! Help! Develop the A40 corridor with, what? Why? How does that help the passengers from Manchester/Liverpool to London and vice-versa?

 

[12LDA28C]

No, it is sad, but now inevitable, that it will end up just being a link from Old Oak Common to Birmingham due to budget cutbacks.

And you know that for a fact do you? Because you read it in the Sun? Oh dear.

 

[camflyer]

Just been reading various twitter and other social media posts, and frankly they all say the same - stop short of the centre then what's the point? Can't find one that's in favour of stopping short and using the Lizline. If Labour are to be the next government then they need a policy on this, complete or scrap, no half measures. As I alluded to, maybe to take it out of politics we need a public referendum (and quickly) - the phrase "let's spend the money on the NHS instead" might be on one side's bus??

The problem for Labour is that Euston and its approaches are in Starmer's constituency so scrapping the redevelopment might be popular locally. He's always been ambivalent at best about HS2.

 

[ChrisC]

If HS2 is permanently curtailed to Old Oak Common, then people from Birmingham, Manchester and other destinations won't use it.

I live on the Western outskirts of Birmingham, and currently if I want to take the train to London I get a bus and then the tram from Edgbaston Village, alighting at New Street station. With HS2, it would be a further 10 minutes on the tram to Curzon Street.

I would not be inclined to go past a station that has direct trains to the centre of London, in order to go to another station that doesn't have direct trains to the centre of London, particularly if, as I suspect, fares on HS2 are substantially higher.

The other thing about Birmingham Curzon Street is that you can see the site of the station from the existing line from London as it approaches Birmingham New Street. It would be somewhat ironic if you were to stand in a brand new station waiting for your train to the outskirts of London, watching trains go by that are going to, er, the centre of London.

I think would be even worse at Manchester Piccadilly. Why would anyone want to get a train to Old Oak Common when there are direct trains to Euston every 20 minutes?

Some people say that the Elizabeth Line at Old Oak Common would be convenient for onward travel to destinations in Central London. Whilst that may be the case, we already have a thread on these forums saying that Elizabeth Line trains are busy at peak times. I don't think people from stations in between Reading and Paddington, plus those from Heathrow, are going to be pleased if hordes of people from Birmingham and Manchester are going to try and pile on to an already busy train at Old Oak Common.

It would be even more of a white elephant for passengers from Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield if any of the eastern section north of Birmingham was to be constructed. I don’t think it will even now be built as far as the the shortened stub to East Midlands Parkway. Who would want to travel to Old Oak Common instead of down the MML direct to St Pancras. Unless you were going to West London there would be no time saving at all.

 

[duncanp]

you still need to get the tube from Euston but Crossrail from Old Oak Common serves the west end as well so how much of time penalty would it be.

This raises the question of whether there is going to be any expansion of Euston tube station after HS2 is built.

Anyone who has used Euston tube station recently will know that it frequently gets congested and can barely cope at peak times.

There is not much point in saving time in travelling to London if Euston tube station is closed for overcrowding and you have to queue outside.

Ideally Crossrail 2 should be built and opened in time to coincide with the opening of HS2 to Euston, but I realise that this could cause resentment from those outside London who feel that London gets more than its fair share of infrastructure funding.

 

[AlastairFraser]

The idea of TfL holding the govt over a barrel for anything is completely ridiculous given the size of the Barrel TfL are being held over by the DfT.

That is only for the next year or so while demand comes back to pre-Covid levels - come the 2030s, it'll be a different story.

 

[brad465]

After bulldozing half of Camden, we know how this ends: a terminus at Old Oak Common, and selling the land around Euston off at a huge loss.

HS2 has always been good for the construction companies and bad for everyone else.

All of the land bought for HS2 will be sold to property developers. The government will make a fortune. Money already spent on HS2 is not really wasted money, as it all finds its way back into the system. It just gets moved around.

Despite the technical problems involved, rather than build HS2 to save a few minutes on journey times, I would have redeveloped the existing network to accommodate double-deck trains to increase capacity.

There was actually a Midsomer Murder's episode many years ago (one of John Nettles' last ones) that was centred around a development scam, where a development was given planning permission in a particular village, but the lead officer and some associates overseeing it deliberately planned for cost overruns and delays to facilitate the arrival of a lucrative out of town shopping complex moving into the affected land. The murderer was someone involved silencing those who threatened to expose it.

I don't know how often this sort of scam/activity happens in real life, but if the HS2 Euston land was sold off and redeveloped I wouldn't be surprised if something similar arose here.

 

[DarloRich]

this is bonkers - what is the point of this line if you don't run into central London? HS2 have knocked down a massive swathe of London to facilitate this and Euston is already a building site!

What is the cost saving here?

 

[Fazaar1889]

Ideally Crossrail 2 should be built and opened in time to coincide with the opening of HS2 to Euston, but I realise that this could cause resentment from those outside London who feel that London gets more than its fair share of infrastructure funding.

As much as I want Crossrail 2, I doubt it'll open for another few decades. I doubt the government will approve of such a big scheme until its almost too late.

 

[DC1989]

The problem for Labour is that Euston and its approaches are in Starmer's constituency so scrapping the redevelopment might be popular locally. He's always been ambivalent at best about HS2.

Maybe so but the chance of Holborn and St Pancras being lost by Labour is miniscule !

 

[Tetchytyke]

Perhaps someone has found a serious overspend similar to LIZ line but at start of project. 60 billion, 10 % = 6 billion. Mind boggling.

There have been a lot of problems with the purchase of land, with HS2 trying every trick in the book to squeeze down costs. Look how they treated the owner of the Bree Louise pub.

Costs are spiralling out of control. The business case was shaky when it was going to cost £100bn, and with the way prices are going I'll be amazed if we get change from £500bn.

I've always been against HS2, thinking it a vastly overpriced solution in search of a problem. It's a white elephant that should never have got off the drawing board.

But now construction has actually started I'd say finish Euston-Brum- I think we've reached the stage where finishing it is as cheap as binning it- but ditch the rest

The government need to put their big boy pants on and either back HS2, at least for Euston-Brum, or bin it off.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The problem with HS2 is inflation creep adds 100's of million if not billions to the budget now without any physical return to be seen for nearly a decade whereas the Dft also needs to fund projects in the here and now that will produce something that can be celebrated with a few years. Remember they fund the major roads programme as well which has far more kudos with the majority of people.

 

[Wolfie]

Lord Berkeley has just been banging on on R4 Today about his long-standing view that HS2 money should instead be spent on upgrading existing lines.
That might have been relevant before HS2 construction started, but not when Phase 1/2a are approved and the countryside is being ripped apart to build it.

Economic illiteracy from a man who lives up to the first part of his name....

 

[zwk500]

This raises the question of whether there is going to be any expansion of Euston tube station after HS2 is built.

Anyone who has used Euston tube station recently will know that it frequently gets congested and can barely cope at peak times.

There is not much point in saving time in travelling to London if Euston tube station is closed for overcrowding and you have to queue outside.

Ideally Crossrail 2 should be built and opened in time to coincide with the opening of HS2 to Euston, but I realise that this could cause resentment from those outside London who feel that London gets more than its fair share of infrastructure funding.

Yes, there will be expansion (ideally before the HS2 Euston opens). One such project is a link to Euston Square.

That is only for the next year or so while demand comes back to pre-Covid levels - come the 2030s, it'll be a different story.

It will take a very long time for TfL to come out of the doggy doo it's currently in.

As much as I want Crossrail 2, I doubt it'll open for another few decades. I doubt the government will approve of such a big scheme until its almost too late.

Agreed - XR2 won't be approved until some years after it should have been opened.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

It's weird how much populist hate HS2 has got over the years. I wonder if they decided to build the whole thing to Scotland instead of the Y network whether it would excite people more. I expect it would have.

Also interesting that the Birmingham to Manchester/Leeds legs was always ignored as far as regional connectivity went with the general public.

 

[Howardh]

This raises the question of whether there is going to be any expansion of Euston tube station after HS2 is built.

Anyone who has used Euston tube station recently will know that it frequently gets congested and can barely cope at peak times.

There is not much point in saving time in travelling to London if Euston tube station is closed for overcrowding and you have to queue outside.

Ideally Crossrail 2 should be built and opened in time to coincide with the opening of HS2 to Euston, but I realise that this could cause resentment from those outside London who feel that London gets more than its fair share of infrastructure funding.

Yes, ask anyone trying to get to Leeds or Sheffield from Manchester.

Really is time there was a national debate about our transport infrastructure, London gets Crossrail at great expence, we lose an airport up north. That may be for another thread though. Up here I suppose we are all wondering what benefit WE will get from HS2, to start with it won't link to HS1, and secondly it's little use for those wanting to cross London to get the the south-east.

 

[E27007]

Sorry, I don't understand! Help! Develop the A40 corridor with, what? Why? How does that help the passengers from Manchester/Liverpool to London and vice-versa?

The assumption is HS2 is for commuters travelling south for work.
The M4 corridor extends the London business to Hounslow, the skyline from the M4 is Office Towers.
In the case of the M40 corridor, Offices diminishes west of Paddington and White City, west of White City the skyline from the M40 is residential / light industry.
Therefore the M40 corridor would be developed for important Tower Office Buildings

 

[DarloRich]

I've always been against HS2, thinking it a vastly overpriced solution in search of a problem. It's a white elephant that should never have got off the drawing board.

But now construction has actually started I'd say finish Euston-Brum- I think we've reached the stage where finishing it is as cheap as binning it- but ditch the rest

I have always been for HS2. However, the more the cut the more I ask what is the point. It is so unambitious now. That said I agree with you. Just build the bloody thing and get on with phase 1 - the money is gone so lets get some benefit.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There have been a lot of problems with the purchase of land, with HS2 trying every trick in the book to squeeze down costs. Look how they treated the owner of the Bree Louise pub.

Costs are spiralling out of control. The business case was shaky when it was going to cost £100bn, and with the way prices are going I'll be amazed if we get change from £500bn.

I've always been against HS2, thinking it a vastly overpriced solution in search of a problem. It's a white elephant that should never have got off the drawing board.

But now construction has actually started I'd say finish Euston-Brum- I think we've reached the stage where finishing it is as cheap as binning it- but ditch the rest

The government need to put their big boy pants on and either back HS2, at least for Euston-Brum, or bin it off.

Agreed should never have been started but it has been so needs finishing but capital budgets are under pressure and Euston is a big expense and if you keep that going full tilt shall we find teh savings off midland main line or Trans Pennine upgrade instead. This is the right solution although personally i wouldn't have spent any money on east coast digital first.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Yes, ask anyone trying to get to Leeds or Sheffield from Manchester.

Really is time there was a national debate about our transport infrastructure, London gets Crossrail at great expence, we lose an airport up north. That may be for another thread though. Up here I suppose we are all wondering what benefit WE will get from HS2, to start with it won't link to HS1, and secondly it's little use for those wanting to cross London to get the the south-east.

Regional devolution might be the answer to that.

But as you say, a very different thread!

 

[matt_world2004]

TfL can extend the Westbourne Park turnbacks to OOC, but that will require extra funding.
They can then hold the govt. over a barrel for extra funding.

They are already planning on doing that. But that's the not the capacity that's going to be the issue. Its the actual on train capacity that is going to be problematic. Before old oak common was opened tfl was predicting 5 passengers per square meter on the Elizabeth line in peak (Pre covid jubilee line loadings) This means the EL is not in a position to take any more passengers than they can currently

 

[Mikey C]

The problem with HS2 is inflation creep adds 100's of million if not billions to the budget now without any physical return to be seen for nearly a decade whereas the Dft also needs to fund projects in the here and now that will produce something that can be celebrated with a few years. Remember they fund the major roads programme as well which has far more kudos with the majority of people.

And electrification, new stations and rail reopenings

 

[The Ham]

Every GWR intercity service will stop at OOC anyway....

I know I was using known timetables and using that extra as an allowance for changing trains.

The main point of HS2 is to create additional capacity on the south WCML south of Hanslope Junction and on the approach to Manchester and Birmingham on the 2-track sections. It doesn't increase InterCity service frequencies. It does increase train lengths, but that could be done a lot more cheaply than building a high speed route - just lengthen platforms to 400m and rebuild classic Euston to have 400m platforms.

Other you'd mess up the timetable on the WCML and would need to build longer platforms elsewhere as well. Even if that's just one to them show splitting of trains.

That is only for the next year or so while demand comes back to pre-Covid levels - come the 2030s, it'll be a different story.

Pre Covid passengers use was +70% on 2009 levels, phase one was justified on +50% of 2009 levels and phase 2 at +100%.

Even if we don't get to pre Covid levels, we only need to get to circa 84% of pre Covid levels to reach the +50% level.

Deal with the strikes and Avanti's poor service provision and there's as good chance we'd reach above that within the next year or two.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

And electrification, new stations and rail reopenings

will never have as much interest as roads though

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Terminating HS2 at OOC wouldn't be...great for SW London passengers.

Currently, to access the WCML it's a one seat ride on the Northern or a change at Stockwell/Vauxhall or Victoria to zip up to Euston on the Victoria Line. OOC is much harder. Crossrail isn't the best designed to connect from the south. And the WLL service is slow, somewhat infrequent and as far as I'm aware, won't even call at OOC.

Which raises a good point, if HS2 is going to stop short at OOC surely this means the LO stations are more important than ever?

 

[duncanp]

Maybe so but the chance of Holborn and St Pancras being lost by Labour is miniscule !

It is not just Holborn & St Pancras that Sir Keir Starmer has to think about.

What about all those Red Wall constituencies in the Midlands and the North who will be cheesed off, to put it mildly, if HS2 is curtailed at Old Oak Common.

For the Midlands and the North to succeed economically, they have to have good connectivity to other parts of the UK, particularly London.

 

[RailWonderer]

The main point of HS2 is to create additional capacity on the south WCML south of Hanslope Junction and on the approach to Manchester and Birmingham on the 2-track sections. It doesn't increase InterCity service frequencies. It does increase train lengths, but that could be done a lot more cheaply than building a high speed route - just lengthen platforms to 400m and rebuild classic Euston to have 400m platforms.

Extending platforms would be prohibitively expensive given the infrastructure. You have to think of singal boxes, bridges, viaducts and houses built around stations. It would not be possible for many stations.
Will HS2 really be needed with passenger use stagnating since Covid? All HS2 would have done was extend the commuter belt but if it only starts from OOC then it won't even do that. £500bn to not even increase service frequencies is an enormous waste of money. HS2 only makes sense form a multi decade future proofing point of view, and even on that basis we simply cannot afford it today.

 

[jfollows]

I hope this is politics and spin briefed to journalists to achieve something, because it's a ridiculous suggestion.

If HS2 had been designed with its terminus at Old Oak Common from the start, I'd have been prepared to go along with that - if it ever gets built when I'm still alive it'd be a perfectly good place to change onto other services.

But not now, not after years of chaos at Euston, vast amounts already spent. Just get the thing done.

 

[Howardh]

It is not just Holborn & St Pancras that Sir Keir Starmer has to think about.

What about all those Red Wall constituencies in the Midlands and the North who will be cheesed off, to put it mildly, if HS2 is curtailed at Old Oak Common.

For the Midlands and the North to succeed economically, they have to have good connectivity to other parts of the UK, particularly London.

Not sure about that, how many Labour voters who voted Tory (Get Brexit Done) even travel from up north to London once, let alone regularly? Although the fact that if HS2 is curtailed, it will be seen as "Tory Cuts" (rightly or wrongly!) abandoning the north etc and an aid to Labour's cause?

Today the government has to stand up and say just what, exactly, it's plans are r/e HS2 in plain english, and leave us all in no doubt.