Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

[Bletchleyite]

It's a real pity it was designed to the French rather than German/Swiss concept. If it'd been designed as a set of interventions to create capacity on the existing network, you could feasibly have built part of it as each bit would create an improvement. But because they went for the French concept of dedicated lines and stations with a pointless view to operating big European units, it's all or nothing. Because the trains will be 110mph on the existing WCML, building say just phase 1 means the WCML will be slower.

 

[camflyer]

To me a mere passenger, stopping short of Euston would render the whole thing pointless. Why spend billions shaving 3/4hr off the journey from Manchester when you add 3/4hr on at the other end? Madness. If the classic line was unused from Manchester, yet trains ran Glasgow/Wigan/Warrington/Euston and actually arrived in central London rather than a HS2 outpost then wouldn't folks in western Manchester go to Wigan/Warrington and catch the traditional trains?

Although this is a Sun report *cough cough* the worry is it hasn't been officially denied as I read it.

To quote Yes Minister "Never believe anything until it has been officially denied"

 

[dangie]

More corruption no doubt. Large central London brownfield site for sale due to being no longer needed. I'm sure the lucky buyer, whichever property developer it will turn out to be, will have an oven ready plan already in place for the nicely cleared site.

All of the land bought for HS2 will be sold to property developers. The government will make a fortune. Money already spent on HS2 is not really wasted money, as it all finds its way back into the system. It just gets moved around.

Despite the technical problems involved, rather than build HS2 to save a few minutes on journey times, I would have redeveloped the existing network to accommodate double-deck trains to increase capacity.

 

[Howardh]

How much of Euston is taken over for HS2, and if it were cancelled (or the Euston part cancelled) would that space be used for current trains, or sold back for the community eg. housing? All I've (haven't) seen is what's behind wooden hoardings, so not a clue how far advanced it all is.

 

[Grimsby town]

It's a real pity it was designed to the French rather than German/Swiss concept. If it'd been designed as a set of interventions to create capacity on the existing network, you could feasibly have built part of it as each bit would create an improvement. But because they went for the French concept of dedicated lines and stations with a pointless view to operating big European units, it's all or nothing. Because the trains will be 110mph on the existing WCML, building say just phase 1 means the WCML will be slower.

Like the what they did in Manchester with the Ordsall Chord? There's simply too many bottlenecks on existing network and contradictions to solve with small bottleneck relief. It simply moves the capacity issues elsewhere. Even Germany are realising they need to build more new lines if they are to meet the target of half hourly services between major cities and have a semi reliable intercity network.

 

[Mikey C]

I’m sure it will run in complete form albeit with a further delay. Just don’t get why nothing in this country gets done as it should. Always seem to want to cut a corner or cheapen everything.

Rampant construction inflation means that the existing budget isn't enough to build HS2 in full, that's the reality. The public finances won't allow more borrowing to cover the increases, and unless you take money from elsewhere in the transport budget, you have to make some sort of cutback OR delay the project so that the cost is spread over more years.

I'd be staggered if Euston was cancelled rather than just delayed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Like the what they did in Manchester with the Ordsall Chord?

No, because it wouldn't increase services, it would be a speed and resilience build. Ordsall failed because it introduced more services to a section of line that was basically full.

 

[zwk500]

Rampant construction inflation means that the existing budget isn't enough to build HS2 in full, that's the reality. The public finances won't allow more borrowing to cover the increases, and unless you take money from elsewhere in the transport budget, you have to make some sort of cutback OR delay the project so that the cost is spread over more years.

I'd be staggered if Euston was cancelled rather than just delayed.

Delay is by far the more likely option. Potentially even splitting Euston into 2 phases, so you build 5 platforms and continue to turn trains at OOC for a while.

 

[Nottingham59]

if you ran it like Fenchurch Street you might be able to run the full 17tph out of Old Oak Common.... you would rapidly overload Crossrail to death if you tried though.

HS2 at 17tph would deliver 17x1100=18,600pax/hr, all seated. And at least some of these would be heading for Heathrow or the Overground.

The Elizabeth line at its design capacity of two minutes headways would carry 30x1500=45,000pax/hr with full loading, mostly standing. So half the EL trains starting empty at OOC could carry the entire HS2 load.

The drawback of the full HS2 design is that it requires an additional 16km of tunnel under London (£1.6Bn) and a second station at Euston (£2Bn), that will only ever carry 17 trains per hour which will only ever be half full.

 

[E27007]

In the coverage of HS2 Euston, the BBC is reporting:

"A two to five-year delay to the entire project is also being considered."

If there is to be such a delay of 2 - 5 years, may this be interpreted as due a shortfall in progressof construction, or, interpreted as "more time to pay" to reschedule or rebudget borrowing and financing requirements over an extended period of construction?

 

[zwk500]

It's a real pity it was designed to the French rather than German/Swiss concept. If it'd been designed as a set of interventions to create capacity on the existing network, you could feasibly have built part of it as each bit would create an improvement. But because they went for the French concept of dedicated lines and stations with a pointless view to operating big European units, it's all or nothing. Because the trains will be 110mph on the existing WCML, building say just phase 1 means the WCML will be slower.

The issue with doing it this way is that the WCML is damned hard to build reasonable speed connections onto and off of. The logical places to connect are very built up, and our geography is already focused around rail arteries. France has the advantage that each town can be bypassed with chords to the classic lines, Germany has the advantage of a much more distributed population. If you could have built Curzon street to link into the trent valley, then a connection at Wembley Yard to Rugby or whatever then maybe, but the issue with the corridors that were available meant it had to be build in one big chunk from London to Birmingham. Only after that could it be broken into phases.

 

[Howardh]

Just been reading various twitter and other social media posts, and frankly they all say the same - stop short of the centre then what's the point? Can't find one that's in favour of stopping short and using the Lizline. If Labour are to be the next government then they need a policy on this, complete or scrap, no half measures. As I alluded to, maybe to take it out of politics we need a public referendum (and quickly) - the phrase "let's spend the money on the NHS instead" might be on one side's bus??

 

[Xavi]

The Sun article is dross as you’d expect. Lies spread by anti-HS2 veterans Gilligan and Berkeley. As well as Central London the article says Crewe and Manchester may be binned too. None of it is true and will be confirmed by announcements soon (not the DfT response this morning).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Jan 2023 ==

In the coverage of HS2 Euston, the BBC is reporting:

"A two to five-year delay to the entire project is also being considered."

If there is to be such a delay of 2 - 5 years, may this be interpreted as due a shortfall in progressof construction, or, interpreted as "more time to pay" to reschedule or rebudget borrowing and financing requirements over an extended period of construction?

It’s lies. Watch this space for official announcements soon. Crewe and Manchester are going ahead, Euston is reprogramming nothing else.

 

[Starmill]

I'm fairly sure it's a good bit of nonsense being put forward but Mr Cole and the low-quality paper who've published it. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever and is more likely to be an attempt at diverting attention than actual policy.

 

[The Ham]

First up, let me check, the logic is that because of inflation we're going to slow down the construction and in doing so run the risk of inflation pushing costs up further (potential faster than the savings from building it at the current rate).

Doesn't that depend on what the cost of putting down tools, paying off the contracts and making the site safe is relative to completing the work?

If the former is cheaper than the latter it is still possible. Probably not at the point of no return yet, particularly with an empty piggy bank.

Report on the radio just sounds like options are being considered as to how to descope or delay the project by pushing elements back in the light of inflationary pressures on the budget.

Using that logic it would be cheaper not to run any services on HS2. There needs to be consideration as to what the income impact would be. If you're going to miss out on 10% of income, even if not building it is cheaper it still may cost you more overall.

This is true. And the land is bought and the demolition work mostly complete and the tunnel boring machines commissioned. I am sure that there are a few billion to be saved by not building it even after compensation for lost profit - but it is a lot of money sunk for no benefit if that was to happen

See point above, I'm not sure that's as clear cut as it first appears.

As I live in Hampshire, Euston would be better for me because of the direct Northern Line connection between Euston and Waterloo. But if I lived in Essex, the direct Elizabeth Line connection from Old Oak to Liverpool Street would be boon. So Old Oak vs Euston depends on the passenger's final destination.

If the line does get built to Euston, it will interesting to see how many people are still on the train when it gets there when compared with the number that got off at Old Oak.

Depends where in Hampshire you are, for many it's likely to be as quick via OOC. See below.

Wouldn't most of Hampshire be better using XC?
Basingstoke to Waterloo - 45 mins, Waterloo - Euston - 30 mins
(wait for connection, platform walk etc) 20 mins
Euston - Birmingham - 45 mins

That's a good 2h 20 mins.

XC does that with no changes in 2h 10., today..

XC to Reading, GWR to Paddington, HS2 Euston to Birmingham is about the same journey time as XC to Birmingham.

However chances there's going to be the potential to do it at a higher frequency (although maybe a bit slower if you use the GWR services from Basingstoke to Reading).

 

[duncanp]

Does this work: https://fft-keymodernrailways.b-cdn...mported/2020-06-19/img_58_1.jpg?itok=OzK8fVB8
[Image showing vector map of south WCML]

In essence, Avanti would have 4tph: 1tph to Each of Manchester and Scotland via Birmingham Calling Watford Jn and MKC, and Wolves and Chester calling MKC and Rugby.
LNWR would also have more services on the south WCML, with the existing Liverpools and Crewes maintained but with stops added.

Yes it does thank you.

So under those plans there would be, from Birmingham New Street to Euston, two trains per hour on Avanti and three trains per hour on LNWR.

If this turns out to be the case, and HS2 is curtailed to Old Oak Common, I would have zero incentive to use HS2, because the time saving arising from using the high speed line would be negated by the extra journey time to Curzon Street at the Birmingham end, and the extra journey time from Old Oak Common at the London end.

When the Edinburgh tramway was being built, there was at one time a proposal to terminate the line from the airport at Haymarket, in order to save money given the delays and cost overruns. There was an outcry, and the consensus was that if you were going to do that, you might as well not build the tramway in the first place. Who would use the tram to get from Edinburgh Airport to Haymarket if you then have to get Lothian Buses to reach the centre of Edinburgh, when there is a perfectly adequate bus service from the airport to where most people want to go.

As has been said, this is a deliberate leak to test the water and soften up public opinion for a delay to the HS2 project. The responsibility for taking a final decision on the scope and timetable for HS2 will fall to whichever government takes office after the next general election. I cannot see Sir Keir Starmer, as prime minister, cancelling permanently a major development project in his own constituency.

 

[Robertj21a]

Oh I don't know. they might see it as a big vote winner in the north of England, particularly in the areas (seats) which will gain no benefit from HS2 whatsoever.

Only the posters on these boards are rail enthusiasts, not the remainder of the population!

That's very true. If HS2 has been sold to benefit, primarily, the Northerners then it's not a big deal if it terminates at Old Oak Common. They will still have good connections to many other parts of London - it's not as if Euston is the perfect spot anyway, it's just become the 'norm' (particularly for Southerners).

 

[AlastairFraser]

XC to Reading, GWR to Paddington, HS2 Euston to Birmingham is about the same journey time as XC to Birmingham.

However chances there's going to be the potential to do it at a higher frequency (although maybe a bit slower if you use the GWR services from Basingstoke to Reading)

Every GWR intercity service will stop at OOC anyway....

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They've spent a fortune already messing around with Euston station designs and the latest iteration is another grandiose scheme that will cost a fortune. If they can find a private developer to build it fine otherwise just build the platforms with simple awnings. Passengers spend there time on trains not in fancy stations.

 

[E27007]

Just been reading various twitter and other social media posts, and frankly they all say the same - stop short of the centre then what's the point? Can't find one that's in favour of stopping short and using the Lizline. If Labour are to be the next government then they need a policy on this, complete or scrap, no half measures. As I alluded to, maybe to take it out of politics we need a public referendum (and quickly) - the phrase "let's spend the money on the NHS instead" might be on one side's bus??

If HS2 terminates at Old Oak Common and not Euston, there would be plenty of potential to redevelop the A40 / M40 corridor from White City towards Ealing. Contrast the near neighbour the M4 corridor and the number of Office Towers which parallel the M4 motorway.
I believe It would be far easier to develop the the Old Oak and M40 corridor than the Euston catchment area.

 

[zwk500]

They've spent a fortune already messing around with Euston station designs and the latest iteration is another grandiose scheme that will cost a fortune. If they can find a private developer to build it fine otherwise just build the platforms with simple awnings. Passengers spend there time on trains not in fancy stations.

The overstation development of Euston is intended to provide a fair amount of funding.

 

[AlastairFraser]

I don't think old oak has the capacity to take the amount of passengers there would be by terminating at old oak common. The Elizabeth line would be screwed to Farringdon if that happened.

TfL can extend the Westbourne Park turnbacks to OOC, but that will require extra funding.
They can then hold the govt. over a barrel for extra funding.

 

[Parjon]

It’s lies.

That's a shame. From the get go this project has been emblematic of the lack of accountability that now abounds in our country, which enables massive waste, pet projects, regional favouritism and discrimination and generally a picture to the population at large that they have no say in a system run entirely to their detriment.

Its demise would go a long way to restore trust. Which this project has time and time again shown itself of being unworthy of.

 

[DC1989]

It may be the sun but remember their political editor Harry Cole is extremely close to the conservative party and has top sources within the government. Used to have a relationship with Carrie Johnson as well (poor girl!)

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'm fairly sure it's a good bit of nonsense being put forward but Mr Cole and the low-quality paper who've published it. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever and is more likely to be an attempt at diverting attention than actual policy.

I heard Cole earlier today, and he described the project as a "farce".
He's probably picked it up from anti-HS2 politicos and is milking the populist sentiment.
It's hard for the government to respond, and I don't doubt there are serious funding issues.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If HS2 terminates at Old Oak Common and not Euston, there would be plenty of potential to redevelop the A40 / M40 corridor from White City towards Ealing. Contrast the near neighbour the M4 corridor and the number of Office Towers which parallel the M4 motorway.
I believe It would be far easier to develop the the Old Oak and M40 corridor than the Euston catchment area.

Leisure travellers want to go to central London. This idea of "let's make it office central" is a pre-COVID solution.

 

[Grimsby town]

No, because it wouldn't increase services, it would be a speed and resilience build. Ordsall failed because it introduced more services to a section of line that was basically full.

But the main point of HS2 is capacity. Allowing more trains to run into our major cities and a long main north south routes.

 

[zwk500]

TfL can extend the Westbourne Park turnbacks to OOC, but that will require extra funding.
They can then hold the govt. over a barrel for extra funding.

The idea of TfL holding the govt over a barrel for anything is completely ridiculous given the size of the Barrel TfL are being held over by the DfT.

It may be the sun but remember their political editor Harry Cole is extremely close to the conservative party and has top sources within the government.

True, but that just means his quotes could have been got in the club bar after several pints rather than from an actual office

Used to have a relationship with Carrie Johnson as well (poor girl!)

I feel very little sympathy for anybody who starts romantic relationships with power for personal gain. You reap what you sow.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Leisure travellers want to go to central London. This idea of "let's make it office central" is a pre-COVID solution.

you still need to get the tube from Euston but Crossrail from Old Oak Common serves the west end as well so how much of time penalty would it be.

 

[SECR263]

I heard Cole earlier today, and he described the project as a "farce".
He's probably picked it up from anti-HS2 politicos and is milking the populist sentiment.
It's hard for the government to respond, and I don't doubt there are serious funding issues.

Perhaps someone has found a serious overspend similar to LIZ line but at start of project. 60 billion, 10 % = 6 billion. Mind boggling.