Reform UK discussion

[gg1]

Anyone who is disabled voting for Reform is just a turkey voting for Christmas.
I also hope anyone who has a disabled friend or relative also takes this into serious consideration.

Agree 100%, but based on social media posts I've seen, such people certainly exist.

All research and polling consistently confirms Reform's support is highest amongst the poorest members of society, if not disabled it's likely many of them are reliant on benefits of some description, and certainly wouldn't be able to afford decent health insurance if Reform get the opportunity to dismantle the NHS. More turkeys!

 

[yorkie]

Agree 100%, but based on social media posts I've seen, such people certainly exist.

Sadly, yes. They tend to state their toxic views on places like Twitter, Facebook etc.

Thankfully, they are few and far between on this forum.

All research and polling consistently confirms Reform's support is highest amongst the poorest members of society, if not disabled it's likely many of them are reliant on benefits of some description, and certainly wouldn't be able to afford decent health insurance if Reform get the opportunity to dismantle the NHS. More turkeys!

I believe it's more the case that their support is highest among less educated members of society (and, statistically, there is a link between education levels and wealth, but of course there will be many outliers to that general trend) and, for sure, I know plenty of poorer people who would never consider voting Reform. There are also plenty of people who are wealthy - like Nigel Farage - who would vote Reform.

From a June 2026 study, which looked at the 2024 election and trends since then:

BSA 43 | Who supports Reform? | National Centre for Social Research

This chapter examines the character of support for Reform, how it has evolved since the 2024 election and possible explanations for the party's rise.

natcen.ac.uk

Whereas 40% of those whose highest educational qualification is less than an A-level support Reform, just 9% of graduates do so.

 

[brad465]

Reform, should they ever somehow find their way into power, will only ever be a one term government, such will be the harm done, that it would fracture the country, and society .

Multi-millionaires don't know, and in some cases won't care, about the impact, until the disaffected turn on them, after of course, working their way through immigrants, trans, LGBT peoples first, then when their lives are still bad, the penny will drop that we've been conned,

But the loss of trust between communities will only get worse, as each turn inward to protect their own, Reform, actually might even break up the UK, imagine Scotland saying we never voted for you, and leaving the union, Imagine the Welsh doing something similar, and Northern Ireland if it becomes ungovernable, because of renewed sectarianism being cast off, as being too hard to control?, what are you left with,

I suspect there are some in Reform, including especially Farage, who would just use a short spell in government to trouser as much as possible and set some laws in place that will enrich them for a while before a future government has a chance to clean-up the mess.

They will not be bothered about re-election prospects. I get the impression several folk close to Truss, including advisors in 55 Tufton Street, wanted her to do this, however she was so incompetent that she was out the door before she had the chance to cement anything of benefit for them.

 

[Bantamzen]

I suspect there are some in Reform, including especially Farage, who would just use a short spell in government to trouser as much as possible and set some laws in place that will enrich them for a while before a future government has a chance to clean-up the mess.

Is the correct answer.

I've thought this for some time about Farage, and everything that's happened recently just cements the feeling that Farage is wanting to do a "Trump". That is get into a position where he can influence decisions, then use the knowledge of upcoming policy announcements to <cough> use them to his financial advantage <splutter>.

 

[ainsworth74]

I certainly don't think that Farage has any real interest in being PM. I imagine that he's not dissimilar to Boris in that regard. He would quite like the trappings of the office, the cachet that comes with it, the money to be made on the after dinner circuit, the appearances at the Cenotaph every year, the £115k allowance for "public duties" after resignation, etc etc. But the actual hard graft of governing? Not a cat in hells chance he's actually interested in that part of it.

I still reckon that if Reform do form a Government he dips within the first twelve to eighteen months.

 

[JamieL]

I suspect there are some in Reform, including especially Farage, who would just use a short spell in government to trouser as much as possible and set some laws in place that will enrich them for a while before a future government has a chance to clean-up the mess.

I think your post underplays their ambition. The Party exists because of its top-level backers and it is their opinion and approach that matters. And they seek structural changes to UK Government and Public Institutions to not only enrich themselves but also to create long-term structural wealth. Privatisation of the NHS being a key example. Nor do I think their tenure will be short - once they are in, they are in and won't want to relinquish either the sources of income nor the levers on future income.

Everything we hear from Reform - the rhetoric immigrants for example (which I doubt anyone at the top of Reform really cares about) - is just popularist nonsense to get turkeys to vote for Christmas.

 

[Tetragon213]

Multi-millionaires don't know, and in some cases won't care, about the impact, until the disaffected turn on them, after of course, working their way through immigrants, trans, LGBT peoples first, then when their lives are still bad, the penny will drop that we've been conned,

You have more faith than I in large portions of the British public. The hateful Reform types will not run out of scapegoats for a long time. The attitudes I hear regarding LGBT folk in, for example, the heritage railway sector positively make my stomach turn.

Between trans folk, the wider LGBT community, illegal immigrants, legal immigrants, then the children of those immigrants, and finally just any folk who are the wrong skin tone or have the wrong religion on the census, Reform won't run out of minorities to target until most of their voter base is well and truly dead.

 

[Merle Haggard]

S/snip

I believe it's more the case that their support is highest among less educated members of society (and, statistically, there is a link between education levels and wealth, but of course there will be many outliers to that general trend) and, for sure, I know plenty of poorer people who would never consider voting Reform. There are also plenty of people who are wealthy - like Nigel Farage - who would vote Reform.
/ snip
From a 2024 study:

BSA 43 | Who supports Reform? | National Centre for Social Research

This chapter examines the character of support for Reform, how it has evolved since the 2024 election and possible explanations for the party's rise.

natcen.ac.uk

my bold

I want to steer clear of making any political comments whatsoever, but I am interested in your use of 'educated' and how it's defined.

When I left school, around 4 1/2 % of school-leavers went to University (spoiler - I was one). Now the proportion is much higher. Any statistic that relies on 'educated' as defined by 'degree' will therefore inevitably result in groups of older people as 'less educated' than younger ones.

I have also seen in the past some posters making a false correlation made between 'degree held' and 'intelligence'.

I would estimate that the proportion of aschool leavers that go on to University today as probably ten times in my day. I don't think that represents a similar rise in 'intelligent' people though.

 

[edwin_m]

my bold

I want to steer clear of making any political comments whatsoever, but I am interested in your use of 'educated' and how it's defined.

When I left school, around 4 1/2 % of school-leavers went to University (spoiler - I was one). Now the proportion is much higher. Any statistic that relies on 'educated' as defined by 'degree' will therefore inevitably result in groups of older people as 'less educated' than younger ones.

I have also seen in the past some posters making a false correlation made between 'degree held' and 'intelligence'.

I would estimate that the proportion of aschool leavers that go on to University today as probably ten times in my day. I don't think that represents a similar rise in 'intelligent' people though.

Regardless of the quality of the actual education, people who go to university will, on average, be exposed to a wider variety of people and viewpoints than those who don't, and particularly than those who stay in the same environment they were brought up in. This will, again on average, make it more likely that they have a broader outlook and less likely that they will believe the narrow and simplistic solutions pushed by the likes of Reform.

 

[yorkie]

my bold

I want to steer clear of making any political comments whatsoever, but I am interested in your use of 'educated' and how it's defined.

When I left school, around 4 1/2 % of school-leavers went to University (spoiler - I was one). Now the proportion is much higher. Any statistic that relies on 'educated' as defined by 'degree' will therefore inevitably result in groups of older people as 'less educated' than younger ones.

If it was more based on age than education, you wouldn't expect the following to be true:

(From the same article as linked above):

..The vote for Reform was already much higher in 2024 among those with less than an A-level than it was among those with more in the way of educational qualifications. The gap is, however, much wider now..

I have also seen in the past some posters making a false correlation made between 'degree held' and 'intelligence'.

I don't think that debate would be relevant here; though if you have evidence of any lack of correlation it may be worth creating a separate thread with relevant sources.

Any trends will always have outliers.

And the study looked at other factors than education and found plenty of correlations; it's just that education is a major factor.

But I also have no doubt that among more intelligent people - regardless of qualifications held - support for Reform will absolutely be far lower than among less intelligent people. Ignoring all the corrections and studies, you just have to look at the behaviour of their supporters and the appallingly worded arguments they come out with to figure that out.

I would estimate that the proportion of aschool leavers that go on to University today as probably ten times in my day. I don't think that represents a similar rise in 'intelligent' people though.

I agree, but I don't think that's relevant.

 

[35B]

my bold

I want to steer clear of making any political comments whatsoever, but I am interested in your use of 'educated' and how it's defined.

When I left school, around 4 1/2 % of school-leavers went to University (spoiler - I was one). Now the proportion is much higher. Any statistic that relies on 'educated' as defined by 'degree' will therefore inevitably result in groups of older people as 'less educated' than younger ones.

I have also seen in the past some posters making a false correlation made between 'degree held' and 'intelligence'.

I would estimate that the proportion of aschool leavers that go on to University today as probably ten times in my day. I don't think that represents a similar rise in 'intelligent' people though.

Indeed. However, the level of education is less about intelligence than as a proxy for the ability to deal with complex ideas. In addition, one of the key factors in the evolution of liberal politics historically was the growth in university education and the professional classes.

 

[Harpo]

I still reckon that if Reform do form a Government he dips within the first twelve to eighteen months.

Farage allegedly reckoned he’d lose £1m a year for 5 years as an MP, surprisingly the exact amount of Harborne’s lovely gift. Even before that, I suspected Farage was a man bought as a Reform stalking horse for Tice or A.N.Other. Maybe even Jenrick?

Farage has proven his ego is huge, his skin very, very thin, and his delusion absolute. To survive in politics, he needs to be able to disable his critics. Watch out BBC, unsupportive media outlets, Parliamentary Standards, courts(?) et al.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Indeed. However, the level of education is less about intelligence than as a proxy for the ability to deal with complex ideas. In addition, one of the key factors in the evolution of liberal politics historically was the growth in university education and the professional classes.

For me, if I had to sum it up in a phrase, I'd say its about having a degree of inquisitiveness rather than a degree in whatever subject

 

[35B]

For me, if I had to sum it up in a phrase, I'd say its about having a degree of inquisitiveness rather than a degree in whatever subject

Agreed - that is where university education should be particularly good

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Aug 2026 ==

Farage allegedly reckoned he’d lose £1m a year for 5 years as an MP, surprisingly the exact amount of Harborne’s lovely gift. Even before that, I suspected Farage was a man bought as a Reform stalking horse for Tice or A.N.Other. Maybe even Jenrick?

Farage has proven his ego is huge, his skin very, very thin, and his delusion absolute. To survive in politics, he needs to be able to disable his critics. Watch out BBC, unsupportive media outlets, Parliamentary Standards, courts(?) et al.

Whatever else Farage is, he is not someone else's stalking horse. Reform is where it is because of Farage, and without Farage, Tice etc. would be nothing. He may well be greedy and venal, but it is a category error to assume that he is therefore being bought.

 

[JamieL]

Whatever else Farage is, he is not someone else's stalking horse. Reform is where it is because of Farage, and without Farage, Tice etc. would be nothing. He may well be greedy and venal, but it is a category error to assume that he is therefore being bought.

I would suggest that your first part is correct - Reform needed Farage - but this also the reason why the second part of your post is not. The backers of Reform needed Farage so brought him. You can see Tice attempting a higher profile now though so I suspect Reform are now formulating a plan without Farage.

 

[SargeNpton]

I would suggest that your first part is correct - Reform needed Farage - but this also the reason why the second part of your post is not. The backers of Reform needed Farage so brought him. You can see Tice attempting a higher profile now though so I suspect Reform are now formulating a plan without Farage.

Probably as useful as MAGA formulating a plan without Trump. Sometimes, the figurehead is the only thing keeping the ship afloat.

 

[JamieL]

Probably as useful as MAGA formulating a plan without Trump. Sometimes, the figurehead is the only thing keeping the ship afloat.

Vance?

 

[35B]

I would suggest that your first part is correct - Reform needed Farage - but this also the reason why the second part of your post is not. The backers of Reform needed Farage so brought him. You can see Tice attempting a higher profile now though so I suspect Reform are now formulating a plan without Farage.

I stand by my view - Farage is there because it's his party, and because he wants to lead. I suspect they didn't buy him so much as he persuaded them to pay him to make the effort. Bluntly, he shook them down

 

[D1537]

You have more faith than I in large portions of the British public. The hateful Reform types will not run out of scapegoats for a long time. The attitudes I hear regarding LGBT folk in, for example, the heritage railway sector positively make my stomach turn.

If anyone wanted evidence of this, many of the social media comments on rail enthusiast groups concerning the rainbow-branded truck that fell onto the tracks at Paddington were simply appalling. One could quite understand why many people believe that rail enthusiasts are social inadequates.

 

[Bald Rick]

the £115k allowance for "public duties" after resignation, etc etc.

He’ll need £1m surely.

 

[Morgsie]

They are a nasty party

Further to my previous comment there is hardly any support to help those long-term unemployed disabled people eneter and retain employment.

 

[yorkie]

If anyone wanted evidence of this, many of the social media comments on rail enthusiast groups concerning the rainbow-branded truck that fell onto the tracks at Paddington were simply appalling.

Sorry to hear that.

I didn't even realise this was the case; although I've been loosely following the thread on this forum (but having not read every post by any means), despite a photo being provided, I didn't notice and I don't think anyone else picked up on it.

I saw the photo briefly when initially posted; I've looked again at the photo posted here; yes, it is rainbow branded, but I don't really understand how or why anyone's attention would be drawn to that.

One could quite understand why many people believe that rail enthusiasts are social inadequates.

Understood. But I would argue this is indicative of the most vocal of social media users (which is absolutely not the same thing as most people who are registered on social media sites), rather than rail enthusiasts in general.

Social media such as Twitter (I refuse to call it "X") and Facebook host a lot of hate posts, but it's a minority - who are particularly vocal - who are submitting that sort of content.

 

[Howardh]

I certainly don't think that Farage has any real interest in being PM. I imagine that he's not dissimilar to Boris in that regard. He would quite like the trappings of the office, the cachet that comes with it, the money to be made on the after dinner circuit, the appearances at the Cenotaph every year, the £115k allowance for "public duties" after resignation, etc etc. But the actual hard graft of governing? Not a cat in hells chance he's actually interested in that part of it.

I still reckon that if Reform do form a Government he dips within the first twelve to eighteen months.

Said for quite some time, Reform/Farage don't want government/PM'ship.

Evidence? Well, it all went strangely quiet after Brexit, suddenly the big mouths were in charge, they got what they wanted and couldn't handle it (Cameron/May/Johnson - Farage nowhere to be seen) - went through three PM's, goodness knows how many votes, how many "bespoke/oven-ready deals" etc. I'm sure Brexiters like Farage would have preferred to lose and carry on shouting from the sidelines?
Same thing now, a single-issue party; sure they want "the botes" (sic) ended, but if they were in government they would be responsible and accountable to everyone for everything, taxes, NHS, defence, education..., and I doubt they could handle it.

So what do we have - wave after wave of policy announcements that affect, I would assume, remove a lot of their core vote. Started with the "war" on pride flags, now it's PIP payments, make the unemployed get out to work etc. Surely this is to encourage their vote to drift away - and as a party with, say, 100 seats max; they can continue to be the pub bore wanting someone else to do their dirty work??

 

[SuspectUsual]

wave after wave of policy announcements

They’re not even really policy announcements, they’re items from a wish list. Very, very little of the “how” so far, and precious little response to challenge

 

[Howardh]

They’re not even really policy announcements, they’re items from a wish list. Very, very little of the “how” so far, and precious little response to challenge

I was trying to be polite to them! The funniest one is they expect our navy to to enter French sovereign waters without permission to do - well, what, with the small boats they've captured. Yes, Nigel, you wanted us to leave the EU so we lose co-operation in neutral and French/Belgian waters I'm afraid.

 

[D1537]

Understood. But I would argue this is indicative of the most vocal of social media users (which is absolutely not the same thing as most people who are registered on social media sites), rather than rail enthusiasts in general.

Social media such as Twitter (I refuse to call it "X") and Facebook host a lot of hate posts, but it's a minority - who are particularly vocal - who are submitting that sort of content.

Oh yes, if it had been a few people here and there you'd think "well, there's always one isn't there".

But the thread I saw on a well-known Facebook enthusiast group had literally dozens of bigoted posts, to the point that the admin had to delete the thread "because I can't be bothered to go through and delete everything that idiots have posted".

 

[martin butler]

If Reform, if we as a country were to vote them into government, took power, they would splinter and split very quickly, Farage, and Tice, would disappear very quickly after resigning, to count the millions they pocketed, there will be the people who are really cult like, about stopping boats, ending all state funding, except for their own viewpoint of their perfect world, i.e. armed stormtroopers demanding papers, from anyone who don't look like them, or doesn't agree with them, that's when things could get very dark, detained without trial, 2 am knock on the door, never to be seen again, because you're dealing with zealots.

 

[Bald Rick]

Good piece on the BBC news website comparing the number of PIP claimants in Westminster constituencies it holds, and came a close second in.

Does Reform's plan to cut £50bn in welfare spending add up?

BBC Verify breaks down what the party says it wants to do to cut the benefits bill - and how realistic it is.

www.bbc.co.uk

(Graphic below, showing for example Boston & Skegness has 10,548 PIP claimants, with Mr Tice’s majority 2,010

 

[35B]

Understood. But I would argue this is indicative of the most vocal of social media users (which is absolutely not the same thing as most people who are registered on social media sites), rather than rail enthusiasts in general.

Social media such as Twitter (I refuse to call it "X") and Facebook host a lot of hate posts, but it's a minority - who are particularly vocal - who are submitting that sort of content.

And many of those are bots. Which is where moderated social media such as forums can be better - but not always

 

[edwin_m]

(Graphic below, showing for example Boston & Skegness has 10,548 PIP claimants, with Mr Tice’s majority 2,010

I don't see that proving anything. Four of the Reform seats are above the average and four are below by fairly similar amounts. It would need a lot more data to prove or otherwise that Reform majorities correlate with PIP claimants.