Reform UK discussion

[jon0844]

The issue Reform have is that even with the above, Count Binface has been much more media literate in a way in which Reform (and specifically NF) haven't been doing to the same extent.

In part as they have a much harder sell than their opponent.

Even though the comedian behind Count Binface has produced work for the likes of the BBC, that's something which is going to be hard to sell as a bad thing to a lot of people.

Yes, it may go down well with their core voters, the issue is, that for a lot of the rest of the UK (I.e. not the 25% who late June early July were saying they'd vote for Reform) probably don't care.

Why's that matter, they aren't likely to vote in Clacton?

Well, it makes it harder for the wider population take Reform seriously if their big attack is that Count Binface used to produce material for the BBC and that's why he's the establishment and even though several people at the centre of Reform are millionaires, they aren't.

Even if they are new money and "the establishment" is old money, that's not something someone who is struggling to make ends meet its going to be too bothered by. They are more likely to think that the rich are all the same, that their friends will give them money, put them up in their homes and otherwise help out other rich people

As such it'll be interesting to see what impact this has all had on the polls when they are next updated.

When Richard Tice defended the Cottrell family, saying he's known them for 50 years and boasting about them being an aristocratic family, it didn't help with the painting of Count Binface as the establishment and Nigel as a 'common man'.

I am not even sure Richard realised at the time what he had actually said.

Of course it won't sway opinions in Clacton. They're already saying it's good he knows how to make money and that it means he's a good businessman... the same thing MAGA said about Trump.

If he's able to do some dodgy deals here and there, all good, as everyone (possibly including themselves) do it.

 

[35B]

The issue Reform have is that even with the above, Count Binface has been much more media literate in a way in which Reform (and specifically NF) haven't been doing to the same extent.

In part as they have a much harder sell than their opponent.

I’ll wait till we see the actual polling. Reform have a good (and highly targeted) social media game which significantly offsets the weaknesses of their candidates. As we saw with that caller to the BBC, they can also rely on a significant number of potential supporters to react emotionally and tribally, not rationally.

 

[Broucek]

What's more Reform knows this, but keeps saying (Nigel and Richard have repeated it) that they'll pay for it.. and I guess the base either assumes they did, or if they find out they didn't it can be blamed on the establishment wanting to rip the public off - further proof of why Nigel needs to win.

Mexico will pay for the wall....

 

[brad465]

While this is only one poll, Reform UK are polling so poorly in Greater Manchester they might not even make the second round, with Labour comfortably ahead and the Greens being second:

electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) on X

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Voting Intention: LAB: 38% (-25) GRN: 22% (+15) RFM: 19% (+12) RES: 9% (New) CON: 8% (-2) LDM: 3% (-1) Ind: 1% (New) 2nd Round: LAB: 64% GRN: 36% Via @FindoutnowUK, 7-13 Jul. Changes w/ 2024.

x.com

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Voting Intention:

LAB: 38% (-25) GRN: 22% (+15) RFM: 19% (+12) RES: 9% (New) CON: 8% (-2) LDM: 3% (-1) Ind: 1% (New)
2nd Round: LAB: 64% GRN: 36%

Via @FindoutnowUK, 7-13 Jul. Changes w/ 2024.

I suspect Reform UK's polling has been hampered by a combination of all the funding scandals and them having to divert resources to the wholly unnecessary Clacton by-election .

 

[Brightonboy]

While this is only one poll, Reform UK are polling so poorly in Greater Manchester they might not even make the second round, with Labour comfortably ahead and the Greens being second:

electionmapsuk (@electionmapsuk) on X

Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Voting Intention: LAB: 38% (-25) GRN: 22% (+15) RFM: 19% (+12) RES: 9% (New) CON: 8% (-2) LDM: 3% (-1) Ind: 1% (New) 2nd Round: LAB: 64% GRN: 36% Via @FindoutnowUK, 7-13 Jul. Changes w/ 2024.

x.com

I suspect Reform UK's polling has been hampered by a combination of all the funding scandals and them having to divert resources to the wholly unnecessary Clacton by-election .

However, looking at the numbers a different way;
Labour have lost around a third of their support, the Greens have added about half as much support as they had last year and Reform have more than doubled their support. Whilst Labour would look likely to retain the mayorality this time, I don't think they (or the Greens) can afford to be complacent about the growth of Reform. A lot could depend on which party(ies) are most successful at turning 'voting intentions' into crosses on paper.

 

[swt_passenger]

On the subject of Honest Bob...

Robert Jenrick: Met investigates donation to Tory leadership campaign

The former Conservative, now Reform UK, MP says the allegations are "entirely false".

www.bbc.co.uk

Oh I do hope the Conservative Party have kept receipts.

I bet Americans must be amazed at how small these figures in question actually are? I bet you’d need millions just to become a parish councillor (equivalent) under their version of political funding…

 

[D1537]

However, looking at the numbers a different way;
Labour have lost around a third of their support, the Greens have added about half as much support as they had last year and Reform have more than doubled their support. Whilst Labour would look likely to retain the mayorality this time, I don't think they (or the Greens) can afford to be complacent about the growth of Reform. A lot could depend on which party(ies) are most successful at turning 'voting intentions' into crosses on paper.

Careful with that though - this was last run in May 2024, when Farage hadn't even decided to take over Reform again and they were polling much lower than they are now.

 

[PGAT]

However, looking at the numbers a different way;
Labour have lost around a third of their support, the Greens have added about half as much support as they had last year and Reform have more than doubled their support. Whilst Labour would look likely to retain the mayorality this time, I don't think they (or the Greens) can afford to be complacent about the growth of Reform. A lot could depend on which party(ies) are most successful at turning 'voting intentions' into crosses on paper.

Reform have always had a poor record of turning opinion polling leads into by-election wins. Not to dismiss their actual growth, but the tactical voting bloc against them has always been larger.

 

[D1537]

Reform have always had a poor record of turning opinion polling leads into by-election wins. Not to dismiss their actual growth, but the tactical voting bloc against them has always been larger.

Also, some of the analyses of the 2024 election suggested that voters who indicate support for Reform in opinion polls are less likely to actually turn out and vote than supporters of other parties.

 

[edwin_m]

Reform have always had a poor record of turning opinion polling leads into by-election wins. Not to dismiss their actual growth, but the tactical voting bloc against them has always been larger.

Greater Manchester is a Supplementary Vote election, having been changed to FPTP by the Tories and back again by Labour. So ought to give a better idea of which party people actually want rather than who they feel they have to vote for to keep out whoever they want least. I'd guess most of the Green (and the much smaller number of LibDem) supporters would put Labour as their second choice.

 

[jon0844]

Reform have always had a poor record of turning opinion polling leads into by-election wins. Not to dismiss their actual growth, but the tactical voting bloc against them has always been larger.

Bots can't vote, nor Reform supporters who live in Nigeria, Thailand, Russia, India etc.

The silent majority quickly becomes nothing more than a vocal minority.

 

[martin butler]

Bots can't vote, nor Reform supporters who live in Nigeria, Thailand, Russia, India etc.

The silent majority quickly becomes nothing more than a vocal minority.

I just hope that there are enough voters in Clacton, that judge their MP on what he has done for the town, on his attendance, on what he has done for his constituents I would expect if he was judged on his record alone, he would be found wanting.

 

[jon0844]

I just hope that there are enough voters in Clacton, that judge their MP on what he has done for the town, on his attendance, on what he has done for his constituents I would expect if he was judged on his record alone, he would be found wanting.

Sadly they seem happy with him doing nothing for Clacton, as long as he's (talking about) stopping the boats.

A first world country that's undermined by some people in dinghies...

 

[The Ham]

The whole "my security was cut by 75%" line got me thinking, why should the tax payer pay for security of someone who "wasn't politically active"?

Likewise, if that's the reason for the gift, why not declare it and make a big thing about how you've had to rely on the generosity friends (not mentioning the value) to stay safe when the establishment isn't helping you, not (as it appears) try and put a retrospective case together for it after the the gift was discovered?

It would be easier to play down the value if it was declared, rather that play down a gift of that size.

 

[Trainguy34]

Definitely wish I could vote for Binface, his manifesto includes "Rename HS2 to FFS1"! Sounds like a down to earth politician from space to me.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

Definitely wish I could vote for Binface, his manifesto includes "Rename HS2 to FFS1"! Sounds like a down to earth politician from space to me.

I think some of his policies will be suitable in the seaside town of Clacton too, such as making 99 Ice Creams 99p again.

 

[GusB]

It's definitely wishful thinking on my part, but I honestly don't think that Farage has this in the bag as much as he'd like. It'll all depend on the turnout on the day; if his supporters think it's a slam-dunk, they may be less likely to bother to vote. The Tories came second in 2024, but it's never a given that their support will automatically go to Reform. If sufficient Lab/Lib/Grn voters gather behind Binface, along with a few non-racist Tories, I don't think it's impossible that the Count of Dodgy-Crypto will end up with a bit of a bloody nose. An outright win against him might not be possible, but a significant reduction in his majority would be every bit as delicious; it's not going to make a dent in the current parliamentary numbers anyway.

In the meantime, we've had the revelation that our Nigel actually refused security, despite him complaining that he needed a £5m donation to fund it.

Farage refused taxpayer-funded security because it was ‘inadequate’

Reform UK decided to continue providing its own protection for Nigel Farage, rather than ‘gamble with his life’, a spokesperson said

www.independent.co.uk

Nigel Farage turned down taxpayer-funded security which reportedly included a trained driver, car, and bodyguard last year because he deemed it “inadequate”.

The Reform UK leader was offered the package, which was on the same level as high-profile Cabinet ministers and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, following police advice, according to The i Paper.

But Mr Farage turned the security down. In a statement to The Independent, Reform UK said the offering, which came days after the assissination of Charlie Kirk, did not match the threat against the party leader.

“Reform took the responsible decision to maintain proper protection rather than gamble with his life,” the statement said.

The emergency of the refusal comes after Reform home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf claimed the state was “providing no protection whatsoever” for Reform’s MPs in the wake of Ann Widdecombe’s alleged killing.

Unrelated, but relevant to me is this rather odious amendment that Refoam has proposed:

Reform UK Plans To Jail Candidates For Using Irish, Gaelic Or Cornish On Election Leaflets

EXCLUSIVE: Nigel Farage's party propose amendment to the Government's elections Bill which would mean candidates using Irish and Scottish Gaelic would face up to six months in prison

bylinetimes.com

A Reform-backed amendment to Labour’s new elections Bill would see candidates who use the Irish language, Scottish Gaelic and Cornish face prison time.

New Clause 107 to the Representation of the People Bill – tabled by Reform UK’s deputy leader Richard Tice and co-signed by every sitting Reform MP (including Lee Anderson, Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman) – would require all election publications material to be “in the English language or the Welsh language” only.

Publishing campaign material in any other language would become a criminal offence – punishable on summary conviction by up to six months’ imprisonment and/or a fine, and becoming an illegal practice for candidates, agents and parties.

The penalties are drafted to apply across the UK – including in Northern Ireland, where the Irish language and Ulster-Scots are protected in law and under the Good Friday Agreement designed to end the decades-long civil war.

Five of six Cornish MPs (four Labour and one Lib Dem) have signed a joint statement at the bottom of this piece, exclusively published by Byline Times, condemning Reform’s proposals.

And the Cornish nationalist party Mebyon Kernow says it is “unbelievable” that MPs from Reform UK have tabled the amendment to the Representation of the People Bill in the House of Commons.

The Scottish National Party has also come out strongly against the proposals. SNP MSP for the Highlands and Islands Maree Todd said: “This despicable anti-Scottish amendment reveals exactly what Reform really thinks of Scotland – and would threaten anyone publishing election materials in Scots or Gaelic with up to six months in prison.

Of course, this policy is primarily aimed at banning the publication of election material in non-British languages; we can't have our prospective politicians produce leaflets in Urdu, despite the fact that many of their potential constituents may be more comfortable reading stuff in their own language. The unintended* consequences (*unintended, my arse) of this will be that Gaelic, Irish and Cornish can't be used in any election materials. The only reason that they haven't outlawed Welsh is probably because it has more legal status but I wouldn't put it past this shower of ****s to try to ban that language too.

It's ironic that Lee Anderson signed this bill - his grasp of the English language is about as big as the gap between his knuckles and the ground which, in turn, is only slightly larger than his IQ. Did he actually manage a proper signature, or was it more a case of "X - his mark"?

 

[edwin_m]

Of course, this policy is primarily aimed at banning the publication of election material in non-British languages; we can't have our prospective politicians produce leaflets in Urdu, despite the fact that many of their potential constituents may be more comfortable reading stuff in their own language. The unintended* consequences (*unintended, my arse) of this will be that Gaelic, Irish and Cornish can't be used in any election materials. The only reason that they haven't outlawed Welsh is probably because it has more legal status but I wouldn't put it past this shower of ****s to try to ban that language too.

It could be a genuine unintended consequence - Reform probably don't know or care much about what happens away from their base in certain parts of England. Whoever thought this up may not be aware that other languages are spoken, ironically even older than the language bastardised by Saxons and Normans arriving in small boats.

 

[martin butler]

It could be a genuine unintended consequence - Reform probably don't know or care much about what happens away from their base in certain parts of England. Whoever thought this up may not be aware that other languages are spoken, ironically even older than the language bastardised by Saxons and Normans arriving in small boats.

Who ever dreamt this up clearly only had certain languages in mind, spoken by people they despise based only on their xenophobia

 

[35B]

Who ever dreamt this up clearly only had certain languages in mind, spoken by people they despise based only on their xenophobia

No, they knew enough to know that there is primary legislation protecting the Welsh language and therefore exempted it from this legislation.

Much as I believe in the virtues of a common language, this kind of language policing is inherently divisive and wrong, whichever majority is enforcing their conformity on a local minority

 

[Harpo]

Nigel Farage told senior figures in Reform UK he would need “a million a year” to cover lost earnings if he stood for parliament in the 2024 general election, sources have told the Guardian, raising further questions about why he was given £5m by a crypto billionaire.

Sources say the discussion took place in March 2024 – shortly before the undeclared gift was made by Christopher Harborne on 5 April

Revealed: Farage’s £5m gift came after saying he needed ‘a million a year’ to stand as MP

Politician spoke to senior figures in Reform in March 2024 about covering lost earnings, sources tell the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

 

[SuspectUsual]

Revealed: Farage’s £5m gift came after saying he needed ‘a million a year’ to stand as MP

Politician spoke to senior figures in Reform in March 2024 about covering lost earnings, sources tell the Guardian

www.theguardian.com

Ah yes. Unsolicited gift. Right

 

[brad465]

Nigel Farage, putting the 'r' into 'gift'.

 

[martin butler]

How bad will the collective meltdown be, if Reform lose their leader in Clacton, and the Manchester Mayoral election in Manchester? who will they blame, you can bet it won't be their own stupid actions,

I would say the Mayor of Manchester more important to longer term ambitions than a single MP, who even if he wins, will face being kicked out again anyway, but of course, Reform is Nigel Farages own very fragile ego trip.

 

[Killingworth]

How bad will the collective meltdown be, if Reform lose their leader in Clacton, and the Manchester Mayoral election in Manchester? who will they blame, you can bet it won't be their own stupid actions,

I would say the Mayor of Manchester more important to longer term ambitions than a single MP, who even if he wins, will face being kicked out again anyway, but of course, Reform is Nigel Farages own very fragile ego trip.

Reform are unlikely to lose their current leader in Clacton but Burnham momentum will save Manchester for Labour.

Voters in Clacton who voted for Farage are demonised in much of the media, likened to fools. Now they face an election where they have the choice of voting for a farrago of candidates covering policies of varied foolishness!

Will the residents of Clacton turn out to vote at all? Whoever wins it will be a memorable election and for good or evil is bringing attention to the town.

 

[Class73Electro]

How bad will the collective meltdown be, if Reform lose their leader in Clacton, and the Manchester Mayoral election in Manchester? who will they blame, you can bet it won't be their own stupid actions,

I would say the Mayor of Manchester more important to longer term ambitions than a single MP, who even if he wins, will face being kicked out again anyway, but of course, Reform is Nigel Farages own very fragile ego trip.

If NF gets beaten in Clacton, then it will be the end of him as a political force (lets face it, he will have lost to a bin, on a By Election that was not needed)

To me, this will also be the end of Reform as a potential "big party". NF Will have to leave, and lets face it, the one thing NF is, is a showman. Its not really the Reform Party, its The Nigel Farage Party. If he goes, the party will lose all momentum, and go back to being UKIP 2.0, with few votes.

Then we can see whether the ex -Tories suddenly realise that they don't really like Reform, and want to go back...

 

[Bald Rick]

To me, this will also be the end of Reform as a potential "big party". NF Will have to leave, and lets face it, the one thing NF is, is a showman.

The normal way of politics doesn’t seem to apply to him. He wouldn’t have to leave, and he may well mot in those circumstances. Regardless, it’s difficult to see him lose it this time.

 

[Harpo]

Whoever wins it will be a memorable election and for good or evil is bringing attention to the town.

It’s doing a grand job of blocking out attention on Farage’s finances.

If there really was a conversation about Farage ‘needing’ £1m a year to plug losses (#post 2931) I wonder how anyone else in that alleged conversation feels about Farage’s continued earnings outside of parliament?

 

[martin butler]

If NF gets beaten in Clacton, then it will be the end of him as a political force (lets face it, he will have lost to a bin, on a By Election that was not needed)

To me, this will also be the end of Reform as a potential "big party". NF Will have to leave, and lets face it, the one thing NF is, is a showman. Its not really the Reform Party, its The Nigel Farage Party. If he goes, the party will lose all momentum, and go back to being UKIP 2.0, with few votes.

Then we can see whether the ex -Tories suddenly realise that they don't really like Reform, and want to go back...

What I think is most likely is that the more hardline, will jump ship to Restore, and what's left, will seek to find cause with the conservate party, some will choose to leave politics, because they won't be welcome back into the fold, by the conservative party, and are not far right enough for Restore. who will just end up as a fringe party,

 

[brad465]

Farage at this point might be better off just not nominating himself today and then carping from the sidelines for the rest of the parliament, then trying to return in the next GE. He clearly cannot handle the extra scrutiny that comes with being an MP.