Reform UK discussion

[Bletchleyite]

There simply aren't vast sums to be found without a systemic change to what councils are expected to deliver.

This is likely true because of elderly and disabled care being part of their budgets and by far the most expensive thing there, and also not particularly easy to save on.

I didn't have much time for Matt Hancock, but one thing he did have a right idea on was the idea of removing this from Councils, it's a distraction from their day to day role of filling potholes, tendering bus services and emptying bins, and is probably a better fit in something like the NHS.

 

[DarloRich]

This is likely true because of elderly and disabled care being part of their budgets and by far the most expensive thing there, and also not particularly easy to save on.

I didn't have much time for Matt Hancock, but one thing he did have a right idea on was the idea of removing this from Councils, it's a distraction from their day to day role of filling potholes, tendering bus services and emptying bins, and is probably a better fit in something like the NHS.

I think you are correct but the NHS cant afford care anymore than the councils can!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think you are correct but the NHS cant afford care anymore than the councils can!

Oh, I agree, the funding is lacking either way. But my point is that it's a poor fit for Councils, a distraction from day to day stuff and also a bit of a distraction from the realities of their budgets. It also means poor handoff between NHS and care that they aren't even managed by the same holders of the purse strings.

 

[Horizon22]

Or to find a small irritant and amplify and re-amplify it into a major conflagration that makes folk believe it’s a huge issue. The Farage playbook.

Oh yes I didn't even mention how they liked to blame all the above on immigrants, refugees and migration as if somehow that is the reason your child can't get an EHCP (Education, Health and Care Plan), or there's more potholes in the road, or your garden waste is now being charged for..

We need a systematic, generational rethink on economics because right now we're dealing with a proption of the population over 65 that has never been seen before, which have extra costs such as welfare, pensions, healthcare that people have come to expect as standard. And the defecit are being used for this shortfall, but it cannot go on forever because eventually most of your taxes will be on paying debt interest! However when the Labour government tried to do it with winter fuel benefit cuts, that was seen as deeply unpopular and has seen a u-turn.

Reform is definitely no better here coming up with madness like leaving the ECHR or revoking ILR which would not only be economically damaging - costing money and not saving anything like the cuckoo £bns reported - as most of these people are in decent, well-paid jobs - but would also literally break up families who have been here decades and would completely trash our international relations.

Pretty much anything Reform says comes back to immigrants being the problem and sure there are some genuine concerns, but some of that is Farage's own doing (e.g. being such a champion of Brexit) and some of it was Tories' putting their head in the sand (refusing to sort the asylum backlog properly).

 

[35B]

Oh, I agree, the funding is lacking either way. But my point is that it's a poor fit for Councils, a distraction from day to day stuff and also a bit of a distraction from the realities of their budgets. It also means poor handoff between NHS and care that they aren't even managed by the same holders of the purse strings.

The same is true of many services provided locally but specified nationally. Having experienced the gaps in handover between bits of the same organisation before, I suspect that the hard work would be in joining those smaller parts together and getting them to behave as one.

Again, not the type of work that a DOGE type organisation will ever be able to focus on.

 

[Horizon22]

Oh, I agree, the funding is lacking either way. But my point is that it's a poor fit for Councils, a distraction from day to day stuff and also a bit of a distraction from the realities of their budgets. It also means poor handoff between NHS and care that they aren't even managed by the same holders of the purse strings.

Yes you would hope the NHS would just have overall responsibility for all care, because as you say the handoff is terrible and involves councils / private providers / quangos and is generally a mess.

That being said it will still be underfunded and would put the NHS even more in the firing line for "inefficiences" from the likes of Farage.

Things like extra support for social care, GPs and also even actively looking at the single market return would resolve some of the underlying problems and root causes with the economy and healthcare by looking at root causes. Just shoving a few extra billion at the NHS isn't as beneficial.

 

[brad465]

I'm surprised Reform's DOGE unit didn't suggest saving money by introducing a Logan's run policy on the elderly.

 

[SteveP29]

In some ways having Reform running some councils will demonstrate that the answers aren't easy and they don't know what they are. Possibly there's enough time between now and 2029 for the facts to begin to sink in and support for Reform will decline.

But but but, there will always be the Reform/ Farage schtick of blaming someone else for the mess/ inability to change anything and unfortunately, the intellectually challenged will believe them without question, in fact, some of them will lap it up

 

[DarloRich]

Pretty much anything Reform says comes back to immigrants being the problem and sure there are some genuine concerns, but some of that is Farage's own doing (e.g. being such a champion of Brexit) and some of it was Tories' putting their head in the sand (refusing to sort the asylum backlog properly).

the question, seemingly without answer, for any Reformers is:

After you have chucked all the dirty forigns out, then what?

 

[Horizon22]

But but but, there will always be the Reform/ Farage schtick of blaming someone else for the mess/ inability to change anything and unfortunately, the intellectually challenged will believe them without question, in fact, some of them will lap it up

Of course I am no Reform fan and they are worse than others at fanning the flames with regards to culture wars and xenophobic attitudes, but opposition parties have done this for decades, if not centuries! Sometimes rightly so, but sometimes you run into issues when expectation doesn't equal reality, which is a big part of Labour's problems right now.

 

[SuspectUsual]

the question, seemingly without answer, for any Reformers is:

After you have chucked all the dirty forigns out, then what?

Flags

 

[35B]

Yes you would hope the NHS would just have overall responsibility for all care, because as you say the handoff is terrible and involves councils / private providers / quangos and is generally a mess.

That being said it will still be underfunded and would put the NHS even more in the firing line for "inefficiences" from the likes of Farage.

Things like extra support for social care, GPs and also even actively looking at the single market return would resolve some of the underlying problems and root causes with the economy and healthcare by looking at root causes. Just shoving a few extra billion at the NHS isn't as beneficial.

If the NHS were managing better within single hospitals/trusts, I'd have more confidence in this. But, until that happens, I'll remain very sceptical about the prospects of such change being effective.

 

[Cdd89]

I bet you could find 50/100k in savings at many councils buy cutting down on pens or notebooks or tea bags and to a normal person that sounds like a lot but in the context of the actual budget of a local authority it is tiny and almost worthless

When one example of waste comes to light, my immediate thought is how many other examples are there that aren't being noticed?

A few months ago my council sent me four copies of exactly the same planning application, same name/address/contents. (Ignoring that we should legislate not to be mailing this stuff out in the first place,) that's an egregious mail merge error and speaks to a pretty low level of competence or care in the department.

 

[DarloRich]

When one example of waste comes to light, my immediate thought is how many other examples are there that aren't being noticed?

but that is about £10 a time. Good to save it but it is drop in the ocean. That is the point.

that's an egregious mail merge error and speaks to a pretty low level of competence or care in the department.

or that there are too few people to run a department properly! Easier just to think all public sector employees are lazy incompetents though!

 

[brad465]

When one example of waste comes to light, my immediate thought is how many other examples are there that aren't being noticed?

A few months ago my council sent me four copies of exactly the same planning application, same name/address/contents. (Ignoring that we should legislate not to be mailing this stuff out in the first place,) that's an egregious mail merge error and speaks to a pretty low level of competence or care in the department.

Office procurement is probably the biggest I can think of: when buying new appliances, just provide a list of approved retailers/suppliers and order directly from them, reclaiming the cost on expenses. The use of a procurement team, regular PAT testing and going through all sorts of other hurdles to get an item adds significant multiples to the money spent per item, compared to if someone just bought the item themselves.

But again, in the grand scheme of things, the savings will not amount to more than 1% of the total council expenditure.

 

[35B]

or that there are too few people to run a department properly! Easier just to think all public sector employees are lazy incompetents though!

Or perhaps that the staff have learned on the job, not been trained properly ("too expensive...") on it, and there's no visibility of the mistakes.

Meanwhile, we focus on the public sector yet, largely because it's not so visible, say nowt about the private sector.

 

[Horizon22]

Office procurement is probably the biggest I can think of: when buying new appliances, just provide a list of approved retailers/suppliers and order directly from them, reclaiming the cost on expenses. The use of a procurement team, regular PAT testing and going through all sorts of other hurdles to get an item adds significant multiples to the money spent per item, compared to if someone just bought the item themselves.

But again, in the grand scheme of things, the savings will not amount to more than 1% of the total council expenditure.

Haven’t you basically described procurement there in a nutshell?

You have to consider who is deciding the “approved retailers/suppliers”. Otherwise nepotism / corruption can creep in. Just look at how the “Covid fast lane” worked…

 

[DarloRich]

Amazing that a former close colleague/aide to Nigel Farage can be convicted of taking Russian bribes and the national media barely mention it. Imagine if that was another UK politician. The papers would be full of this story for weeks.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has said he was "stunned" when he found out his party's former leader in Wales took bribes to make statements in favour of Russia while a Member of the European Parliament.

Nigel Farage 'stunned' ex-Wales Reform leader Nathan Gill took bribes

Nathan Gill has admitted taking money for pro-Russian statements as a European Parliament member.

www.bbc.co.uk

Also a man has been convicted of making threats to kill Farage. Now, Farage is a whopper but you cant be making threats to kill elected politicians.

A man who came to the UK on a small boat and threatened to kill Nigel Farage has been jailed for five years.

Fayaz Khan, 26, made a gun gesture with his hand, pointed to an AK-47 tattoo on his face and named the Reform UK leader in a TikTok post in October 2024.

Man jailed for five years for threatening to kill Nigel Farage on TikTok

The Reform UK leader has described the threats made in a TikTok video as "pretty chilling".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Horizon22]

Amazing that a former close colleague/aide to Nigel Farage can be convicted of taking Russian bribes and the national media barely mention it. Imagine if that was another UK politician.

Nigel Farage 'stunned' ex-Wales Reform leader Nathan Gill took bribes

Nathan Gill has admitted taking money for pro-Russian statements as a European Parliament member.

www.bbc.co.uk

Reform didn't exist did it when these offences took places I don't believe? Would all have been under the previous incarnation as UKIP.

That probably allows for some (convenient) distance for Farage.

 

[DarloRich]

Reform didn't exist did it when these offences took places I don't believe? Would all have been under the previous incarnation as UKIP.

That probably allows for some (convenient) distance for Farage.

if it quacks like a duck....................

 

[Harpo]

and the national media barely mention it.

The print media won’t want to run anything advantageous to Labour.

 

[jon0844]

Also a man has been convicted of making threats to kill Farage. Now, Farage is a whopper but you cant be making threats to kill elected politicians.

Of course not, and it's good they treated it seriously (not that it's going to appease the 'two tier' brigade).

Maybe if the person had been white and was British born, and was saying nasty things about a Labour politician, Farage and GB News may have fought for his right to free speech....!

 

[Harpo]

Maybe if the person had been white and was British born, and was saying nasty things about a Labour politician, Farage and GB News may have fought for his right to free speech....!

Therein lies the hypocracy. Reform treat Lucy Connolly the woman jailed for a social media post suggesting setting fire to migrant hotels as a martyr.

 

[DarloRich]

Maybe if the person had been white and was British born, and was saying nasty things about a Labour politician, Farage and GB News may have fought for his right to free speech....!

of course they would! The Free Speech "Union" would be there like a shot!

 

[aavm]

A poll in the Daily Mail shows Reform getting a *massive* majority but for the effect of wild tactical voting, e.g. Labour supporters voting Conservative.
A bit risky for me. Sure, they're against immigration, but I'm not sure what else they stand for. Labour and Conservative must both realise they're sleepwalking to disaster. The future doesn't inspire me with confidence.

 

[PGAT]

A poll in the Daily Mail shows Reform getting a *massive* majority but for the effect of wild tactical voting, e.g. Labour supporters voting Conservative.
A bit risky for me. Sure, they're against immigration, but I'm not sure what else they stand for. Labour and Conservative must both realise they're sleepwalking to disaster. The future doesn't inspire me with confidence.

I would not trust the Daily Mail! I saw the poll and over 100 seat majority is ridiculous it’s more likely there will be a hung parliament

 

[SteveP29]

I would not trust the Daily Mail! I saw the poll and over 100 seat majority is ridiculous it’s more likely there will be a hung parliament

We must make sure that that is the least that happens in the next election.

Just as with the EU Referendum, sitting back and assuming that all will be fine is a dangerous policy

 

[JamesT]

I would not trust the Daily Mail! I saw the poll and over 100 seat majority is ridiculous it’s more likely there will be a hung parliament

The Daily Mail may have commissioned the poll, but it was run by Electoral Calculus who do appear to have had a decent record in accurate polling. Though I do note they mention the headline number is without tactical voting, with it then it would be considerably fewer seats but don't give a number for that.

 

[styles]

There's a good summary of various seat projections on this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...ted_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_projections (I would add the data inline

MRP polls​

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Area	Lab	Con	LD	SNP	Ref	Grn	Plaid	Others	Majority
31 Aug – 24 Sep 2025	YouGov[17]	N/A	13,000	GB	144	45	78	37	311	7	6	3	Hung (Ref 15 short)
9 Aug – 15 Sep 2025	More in Common[27]	The Times and Sunday Times[285]	19,520	GB	90	41	69	34	373	6	4	14	Ref 96
21 Aug – 1 Sep 2025	Survation	38 Degrees[286]	8,546	TBC	191	42	63	30	293	6	TBC	TBC	Hung (Ref 33 short)
13–30 Jun 2025	More in Common[84]	N/A	11,282	GB	126	81	73	42	290	7	4	8	Hung (Ref 36 short)
29 May – 18 Jun 2025	YouGov[94]	N/A	11,500	GB	178	46	81	38	271	7	7	3	Hung (Ref 55 short)
10–17 Jun 2025	Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[95]	PLMR	5,444	GB	118	29	69	26	377	4	4	5	Ref 104
14 Mar – 1 Apr 2025	More in Common[156]	N/A	16,176	GB	165	165	67	35	180	4	5	10	Hung (Ref 146 short)
21–28 Mar 2025	Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[160]	PLMR[161]	5,180	GB	180	133	49	30	227	4	4	5	Hung (Ref 99 short)
22–29 Jan 2025	Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now[287]	PLMR[288]	5,743	GB	174	178	57	37	175	4	2	5	Hung (Con 148 short)
30 Nov 2024 – 5 Jan 2025	Focaldata[289]	Hope not Hate[290]	17,790	GB	287	163	63	22	76	4	4	13	Hung (Lab 39 short)
31 Oct – 16 Dec 2024	More in Common[258]	N/A	11,024	GB	228	222	58	37	72	2	4	26https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini..._general_election#cite_note-NI-Not-Polled-292

[TD]Hung
(Lab 98 short)[/TD]

[TR]
[TD]6–9 Dec 2024[/TD]
[TD]Stonehaven[241][/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[TD]2,072[/TD]
[TD]GB[/TD]
[TD]278[/TD]
[TD]157[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]19https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini..._general_election#cite_note-NI-Not-Polled-292[/TD]
[TD]Hung
(Lab 48 short)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 Nov 2024[/TD]
[TD]Kemi Badenoch is elected leader of the Conservative Party[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4 Jul 2024[/TD]
[TD]2024 general election[/TD]
[TD]–[/TD]
[TD]UK[/TD]
[TD]411[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]72[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]

23

Lab 172

It seems to still be trending towards a Reform majority. I do wonder though, if Reform were 15 seats short, who would join them in a coalition? The DUP just to get them over the line? Even then that would only get them about half a dozen seats closer.

 

[Gloster]

There's a good summary of various seat projections on this Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...ted_Kingdom_general_election#Seat_projections (I would add the data inline

It seems to still be trending towards a Reform majority. I do wonder though, if Reform were 15 seats short, who would join them in a coalition? The DUP just to get them over the line? Even then that would only get them about half a dozen seats closer.

I am sure that there would quickly be a number of Conservative MPs, and possibly one or two Labour ones, who would feel that ‘for the good of the country and to reflect the wishes of the voters’ they would be prepared to join Reform. They would no doubt be willing to make further personal sacrifices and accept a post as Minister for British Bulldog Clips.