Reform UK discussion

[styles]

The political parties will have a rough idea of what switches have happened from their canvassing records, even if only a partial data set.

More to the point, under FPTP there is a lot of tactical voting where people are really voting against one party, rather than for another.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

What also clouds the picture is the difference in turnout from one election to another, if it decreases then is it just that former voters for one party stayed at home, or at least a proportion of them did. Of course the true picture is going to be a complicated web of switches and abstentions.

 

[sor]

Plaid are claiming its the yoofs wot did it.

https://xcancel.com/BNHWalker/status/1981500673070878907 (Ben Walker is founder of a poll aggregator, so it's not some random person's opinion)

This is insane. Turnout 50%. Up on 41% in 21. Young Plaid organiser telling me of all the texts and DMs from apolitical friends that they're turning out to stop Reform.

 

[SteveP29]

Whilst the thought of a Farage government fills me with dread, there's a little dark part of me that would almost like to see it happen, if only to watch Farage do a Liz Truss, crashing his party into a wall, making himself so ridiculous looking that his political career would be over. But that's just the naughty bit of me, the rest wants Reform to destroy itself in the next few years, and seeing Farage do another runner like he did straight after the Brexit Referendum result.

Reading the increasingly batsh*t crazy posts and comments on social media of those that support Reform, I have often thought the same. Just so those that blindly follow him get a handle on reality, not the fantasy world he promotes.
They simply can't blame everything that's wrong with country on immigration, it's simply not true, there would be some horrific mental gymnastics to justify that stance, ones that would get increasingly bizarre that surely even the most intellectually challenged could see was complete rubbish.

I'm predicting one of two things as we near the next General Election.

Firstly, Farage will quit and 'retire' again months before the election if it's looking good for Reform, simply because he isn't a worker, he isn't a problem solver, all he is, is an agitator, one that takes great pleasure in p*ssing into the tent from the outside causing trouble. He would not enjoy or even tolerate, in my opinion, having to get his hands dirty and be p*ssed on while he's inside the tent.

Secondly, Farage will quit and 'retire' again if it's looking bad for Reform, and he will simply say that the establishment wouldn't allow him and his 'party' to rule (and yes, we know that's patent bullsh*t, but it's the kind of thing he'd say and his supporters lap up unquestionably)

On both points, I think he'd leave it a few months into the next administration, then launch yet another party (sorry, private members club) to tackle immigration because that's the cause of all the ills of the UK and it's be even more extreme than previous incarnations.

Until he shuffles off this mortal coil, he will forever be a danger to the United Kingdom.

And as I've said numerous times, that poor plane, destroyed, while he got scratches.

 

[Horizon22]

Why is it a poor take? Clearly what people actually voted for matters more than a random Survation poll which clearly overestimated the support of Reform

It's more there's a lot of swapping, even if the result looks simplistic.

Conservatives only had 17% of the votes to obtain, and Labour decreased by a lot more than Plaid Cymru gained. It's not a simple as mapping out the percentage because that would mean Tory > PC and Labour > Reform. I would expect more Tories would go Reform and "classic left-wing" Labour voters went to Plaid Cymru, whilst the marginal, economic left, but more conservative culturally Labour voters in ex-mining communities went to Reform. Reform were starting from such a low point, they probably picked up votes from all over, including the classic by-election anti-establishment vote.

You also have to consider differential polling turnout

Political parties doing a good amount of canvassing and data analysis will get a gist of the shift. But it can be a chunk of party A goes to party B, but loads of party B goes to party C and therefore C wins.

 

[TravelDream]

Why is it a poor take? Clearly what people actually voted for matters more than a random Survation poll which clearly overestimated the support of Reform

Because it's pure nonsense to state that there are 'left' voters and 'right' voters and those pools of voters are rigid.

Reform would have got people who previously voted Labour, Tory and Plaid. Even with Plaid's relatively emphatic victory (compared to expectations), I have a feeling the Plaid -> Reform vote would surprise people.
Labour's vote has been heavily split. Plaid has taken a lot, but Reform will have taken a lot too.
There would also definitely be Tory -> Plaid voters which I think most people in England and Scotland just wouldn't get.

To be honest, I am not totally surprised by Plaid winning. However, I am surprised by quite the number of raw votes Plaid managed to get. Something special has certainly happened there.

And the Survation poll actually did very well. Yes, it wasn't totally accurate. Constituency polling is very difficult after all given their small sizes. But clearly what's happened in the last two weeks of the campaign is the third party vote (Lab/LD/Con/Green etc.) has been heavily squeezed and Plaid has been the beneficiary.

 

[Bald Rick]

Having now seen on catch up the live debate by the candidates, I don’t know how anybody in the constituency could have voted for Reform. That so many did is genuinely concerning regaridng the ability of that element of the electorate to understand what they are foring for.

 

[Krokodil]

Having now seen on catch up the live debate by the candidates, I don’t know how anybody in the constituency could have voted for Reform. That so many did is genuinely concerning regaridng the ability of that element of the electorate to understand what they are foring for.

How many of the constituents do you think actually watched the debate, or even read the campaign literature?

 

[Cloud Strife]

To be honest, I am not totally surprised by Plaid winning. However, I am surprised by quite the number of raw votes Plaid managed to get. Something special has certainly happened there.

I think what's happening in Wales is what happened in Scotland in 2007-2011. People who were previously Labour and unionist realised that the SNP were a viable option, and the unpopularity of Labour under Brown pushed the SNP into a majority. It won't happen with Plaid and Wales because of the Senedd now being fully under PR, but there's a very real chance that we'll see a Plaid government with confidence/supply from Labour.

Labour need to have some courage and put federalism on the table now.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

I think what's happening in Wales is what happened in Scotland in 2007-2011. People who were previously Labour and unionist realised that the SNP were a viable option, and the unpopularity of Labour under Brown pushed the SNP into a majority. It won't happen with Plaid and Wales because of the Senedd now being fully under PR, but there's a very real chance that we'll see a Plaid government with confidence/supply from Labour.

Labour need to have some courage and put federalism on the table now.

I'm not sure I agree here. What I think caused the Scotland upheaval was the referendum. In effect the SNP took all the independence voters.
The Wales shift looks more like a rejection of Conservative and Labour with voters looking elsewhere and, depending on certain viewpoints, alighting on either Plaid or Reform.

 

[35B]

I'm not sure I agree here. What I think caused the Scotland upheaval was the referendum. In effect the SNP took all the independence voters.
The Wales shift looks more like a rejection of Conservative and Labour with voters looking elsewhere and, depending on certain viewpoints, alighting on either Plaid or Reform.

I think Scotland shifted well before the referendum, and because Labour had become hollowed out as a party - taking its right to rule as a given. Having Holyrood gave them a national platform that allowed them to gain credibility.

I think the parallels in Wales are quite straightforwards

 

[TravelDream]

I'm not sure I agree here. What I think caused the Scotland upheaval was the referendum. In effect the SNP took all the independence voters.

@35B is very right. The shift in Scotland was well before the referendum. The referendum might have cemented the SNP's support among independence voters, but it certainly didn't cause the movement.

I think a slight difference in Wales compared to Scotland is the support Plaid gets from people neutral on the union as well as unionists. I am no expert on Scotland, but my understanding is the union/ independence divide by voters is much stronger. In Wales, there are large numbers of people who might vote Labour in one election and Plaid in another.

Reform is also stronger in Wales than Scotland and those types of party (UKIP/ Brexit) have had a much stronger history electorally in Wales than Scotland.

So the dynamics are quite different.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

I think my memory may have mislead me, however the full Labour meltdown was driven by the referendum. However until the Senedd elections any comparison to Scotland is still conjectural. I am also not sure Welsh independence has tge same degree of support as Scottish independence did.
As regards Reform we must of course remember that Wales as a whole voted in favour of Brexit.

 

[TravelDream]

I think my memory may have mislead me, however the full Labour meltdown was driven by the referendum. However until the Senedd elections any comparison to Scotland is still conjectural. I am also not sure Welsh independence has tge same degree of support as Scottish independence did.

No, it doesn't. But Plaid support is nowhere near as strongly linked to independence as the SNP's.

Take the recent by-election in Caerphilly. Plaid got basically 16,000 votes. But I doubt you could find 4,000 people in Caerphilly who actually support independence. Maybe 8,000 with those who support and those who'd consider it.

And much of the independence support increase is down to discontent with the political system and conditions we have right now.

As regards Reform we must of course remember that Wales as a whole voted in favour of Brexit.

Very true. Though demographically, it would have been stronger for leave if it were a region of England than it did.

Farage parties also have a much stronger history. UKIP did very well in 2016. Though in 2021 Reform did very poorly (going back to Caerphilly it's why it's annoying when Reform people say their vote was up more than Plaid's. Plaid did well is Caerphilly in 2021 and Reform was barely an also-ran) as it's comparing apples and oranges.
They have never done that well in Scotland and 2026 might be the first time.

 

[35B]

No, it doesn't. But Plaid support is nowhere near as strongly linked to independence as the SNP's.

Take the recent by-election in Caerphilly. Plaid got basically 16,000 votes. But I doubt you could find 4,000 people in Caerphilly who actually support independence. Maybe 8,000 with those who support and those who'd consider it.

And much of the independence support increase is down to discontent with the political system and conditions we have right now.



Very true. Though demographically, it would have been stronger for leave if it were a region of England than it did.

Farage parties also have a much stronger history. UKIP did very well in 2016. Though in 2021 Reform did very poorly (going back to Caerphilly it's why it's annoying when Reform people say their vote was up more than Plaid's. Plaid did well is Caerphilly in 2021 and Reform was barely an also-ran) as it's comparing apples and oranges.
They have never done that well in Scotland and 2026 might be the first time.

That depends on whether the Scots buy Reform as a populist unionist right wing party, or see it as an English nationalist party.

My money is on the latter.

 

[styles]

That depends on whether the Scots buy Reform as a populist unionist right wing party, or see it as an English nationalist party.

My money is on the latter.

I know polls are only polls, but Reform are currently roughly tied with Labour for second place in our election next year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

Reform have been reasonably vocal in opposing Scottish independence when asked, though how much of that voters have picked up versus their stop the boats rhetoric is another matter. I suspect a lot of pro-independence voters recognise that independence just isn't likely any time soon and other policies are of more immediate concern. To that end, Reform may enjoy some popularity up here from those fed up of Labour/SNP, regardless of their stance on independence.

 

[35B]

I know polls are only polls, but Reform are currently roughly tied with Labour for second place in our election next year: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election

Reform have been reasonably vocal in opposing Scottish independence when asked, though how much of that voters have picked up versus their stop the boats rhetoric is another matter. I suspect a lot of pro-independence voters recognise that independence just isn't likely any time soon and other policies are of more immediate concern. To that end, Reform may enjoy some popularity up here from those fed up of Labour/SNP, regardless of their stance on independence.

I await the real challenge of a campaign. Farage has previously been very English in his style, and it wouldn’t take much loose talk for that to have an outsized impact.

 

[TravelDream]

I await the real challenge of a campaign. Farage has previously been very English in his style, and it wouldn’t take much loose talk for that to have an outsized impact.

Look at the Caerphilly by-election.

Reform had Welsh flags everywhere and plenty of signs and literature with 'Reform Cymru' on them. I think they are still working on their marketing, but clearly they see this as something that will help them.

Scotland will be no different and I expect them to have plenty of Reform Scotland and saltires on display.

 

[Rab Smith]

Look at the Caerphilly by-election.

Reform had Welsh flags everywhere and plenty of signs and literature with 'Reform Cymru' on them. I think they are still working on their marketing, but clearly they see this as something that will help them.

Scotland will be no different and I expect them to have plenty of Reform Scotland and saltires on display.

Reform will try to hijack the Saltire for their political campaign in Scotland but as Farage has seen in the past, we're not stupid and don't appreciate Reform trying to pretend they have any love for Scotland and the Scots.
I expect to see a Labour/Tory vote decimated by Reform but not quite enough to give them any traction. The Unionist vote will split between them and the Lib Dems and Greens will be the only alternative to voting for the SNP.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

As things currently stand it looks to me as if Reform will do spectacularly well in English council elections, very well in Senedd elections and make inroads into the Scottish Parliament, though I suspect through list members rather than constituencies.
Conservative voters will mainly go to Reform but Labour voters will split, and this split may be further complicated depending on how Your Party, or whatever name it ends up with, performs.
Anybody hoping that any shenanigans by current Reform councils or councillors will affect the average Reform voters intentions may be sorely disappointed, they are voting for Nigel.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Reform have been reasonably vocal in opposing Scottish independence when asked, though how much of that voters have picked up versus their stop the boats rhetoric is another matter. I suspect a lot of pro-independence voters recognise that independence just isn't likely any time soon and other policies are of more immediate concern. To that end, Reform may enjoy some popularity up here from those fed up of Labour/SNP, regardless of their stance on independence.

My gut feeling:

The vote being split horrendously between unionist parties (Reform, Labour, Tories, etc) will play massively into the SNP's favour this time round, because unlike in 2021, people won't tactically vote for Reform to keep the SNP out. The end result might end up being another landslide in the constituency vote. The Greens and Alba are no threat to the SNP in the constituency lists, so most nationalist voters have no real choice there. The end result is that the SNP might end up taking quite a few seats with as little as 30% or so, especially once Reform and Labour go at it.

The regional list will likely deliver quite a few seats to Reform, but mostly at the expense of the Tories. If I were betting, I'd actually put good money on the Tories not getting more than 3-4 seats in total at this point. I also suspect that both the SNP and Labour will expose and hammer Reform's hard unionism in the campaign, even if they try and dress themselves in Saltires.

The big unknown is whether Labour and Lib Dem voters will vote for the SNP to simply keep Reform out. I wouldn't be surprised if they do, not least to defend the Scottish Parliament as a whole against a party that is very clearly the party of Little England.

 

[JGurney]

While there presumably were shifts from Labour to PC and from Conservative to Reform, there is also some evidence of a general rightward shift.
Figures in percentages for Welsh Assembly/Senedd elections for Caerphilly (data from Wikipedia, fractions rounded to nearest whole no.).

	Lab	PC	Con	RUK / UKIP	Lab + PC	Con + RUK/UKIP
1999	44	34	8	-	78	8
2003	47	27	10	2	74	12
2007*	34	25	11	4	59*	16
2011	49	29	13	4	78	17
2016	35	29	9	22	64	31
2021	46	28	17	2	74	19
2025	11	47	2	36	58	38

*in the 2007 election an 'independent socialist' got 22%, so it could be argued that Lab + PC + socialist independent jointly got 81% that time.

 

[35B]

Look at the Caerphilly by-election.

Reform had Welsh flags everywhere and plenty of signs and literature with 'Reform Cymru' on them. I think they are still working on their marketing, but clearly they see this as something that will help them.

Scotland will be no different and I expect them to have plenty of Reform Scotland and saltires on display.

I’m sure. But as others have mentioned, nationalism is stronger in Scotland. And part of that is a justified sense of dislike of English politicians wrapping themselves in the Union Jack when they are actually making English points. That will be dramatically reinforced if or when someone prompts Farage or Tice to make a comment in an “English” manner. That will be all too easy given their position as a unionist party that supports the Brexit that Scotland emphatically did not.

 

[Cloud Strife]

And part of that is a justified sense of dislike of English politicians wrapping themselves in the Union Jack when they are actually making English points. That will be dramatically reinforced if or when someone prompts Farage or Tice to make a comment in an “English” manner. That will be all too easy given their position as a unionist party that supports the Brexit that Scotland emphatically did not.

I think this will be pretty much the SNP and Labour's plan: get Farage to stumble when he fails to understand the subtleties of Scottish politics, paint Reform as being a party of the English, and then watch Reform fall apart in the campaign when it turns out that their entire campaign is very much based around "Union Jack" politics and not Scottish politics.

I do agree that Reform will likely take the vast majority of the Tory vote in Scotland, as they're simply floundering and going nowhere. But it seems as if unionism will be bitterly divided, and I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist parties end up in a bitter fight that ends up costing them almost all of the constituency seats. If you combine this with a chance that Reform wins the next General Election, then Reform might well end up being the unintentional architects of Scottish independence.

 

[JamesT]

I think this will be pretty much the SNP and Labour's plan: get Farage to stumble when he fails to understand the subtleties of Scottish politics, paint Reform as being a party of the English, and then watch Reform fall apart in the campaign when it turns out that their entire campaign is very much based around "Union Jack" politics and not Scottish politics.

I do agree that Reform will likely take the vast majority of the Tory vote in Scotland, as they're simply floundering and going nowhere. But it seems as if unionism will be bitterly divided, and I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist parties end up in a bitter fight that ends up costing them almost all of the constituency seats. If you combine this with a chance that Reform wins the next General Election, then Reform might well end up being the unintentional architects of Scottish independence.

Bear in mind that the SNP won 62 of the 73 constituency seats last time. Although there is some chance of the Unionist vote fracturing, is there not also the possibility that disillusionment with the SNP government might make that a high water mark for them?

 

[GusB]

I do agree that Reform will likely take the vast majority of the Tory vote in Scotland, as they're simply floundering and going nowhere. But it seems as if unionism will be bitterly divided, and I wouldn't be surprised if the unionist parties end up in a bitter fight that ends up costing them almost all of the constituency seats. If you combine this with a chance that Reform wins the next General Election, then Reform might well end up being the unintentional architects of Scottish independence.

It'll be interesting to see how Reform performs in places such as Aberdeenshire where there was previously a lot of support for the Tories.

Reform came third Aberdeenshire North and Moray East (Westminster) constituency last year:

SNP	13455	35.2%
Conservative	12513	32.8%
Reform	5562	14.6%

Source: https://electionresults.parliament.uk/elections/3254

While not directly comparable in terms of boundaries, the Banffshire and Buchan coast constituency result was quite close. This was the 2021 result. Reform didn't stand, although it achieved 1056 regional votes.

SNP	14920
Conservative	14148

Scottish Parliamentary Election 2021 - Aberdeenshire Council

www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk

If all that Tory support was to go to Reform the SNP would be in trouble, but is it likely that all of them would vote Reform? The LibDems could possibly benefit from the more centre-leaning Unionist voters.

Either way, Reform shouldn't be underestimated and if they don't win any constituency seats, I'm certain they'll gain some regional seats.

 

[KevinBrum12]

Look at the Caerphilly by-election.

Reform had Welsh flags everywhere and plenty of signs and literature with 'Reform Cymru' on them. I think they are still working on their marketing, but clearly they see this as something that will help them.

Scotland will be no different and I expect them to have plenty of Reform Scotland and saltaires on display.

Marketing says a lot. The test though in the run up to to the the Senedd and Scottish Parliament elections is how much can a Reform Cymru or a Reform Alba can develop a policy agenda that it can sell as distinct to that which Reform wants to peddle on a UK wide basis.

Reform Cymru are not though at a point in their life where they can blame a bad result on "that lot in Westminster", which is what Welsh Labour have done after Caerphilly.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Bear in mind that the SNP won 62 of the 73 constituency seats last time. Although there is some chance of the Unionist vote fracturing, is there not also the possibility that disillusionment with the SNP government might make that a high water mark for them?

The electoral maths are an issue for the unionist parties, specifically that a fractured vote pretty much guarantees an SNP win in the constituency votes. If we were dealing with 'more of the same', I'd expect the SNP to take a bit of a kicking in the constituency vote, but Reform are throwing those calculations in the bin right now. A good example is with the last by-election in Hamilton, where the SNP came very close to retaining the seat despite being mired in problems at the time.

The other issue is that the SNP are still polling well ahead of everyone else. The unpopularity of Labour is contributing to this, but also the simple fact that the SNP simply don't have any real competition in the nationalist space when it comes to the constituency vote. People can (and will) vote SNP-Green as they know that an SNP landslide in the constituency votes makes it very difficult to win list seats, but going SNP-Green is a good way to ensure another majority for nationalist parties.

It'll be interesting to see how Reform performs in places such as Aberdeenshire where there was previously a lot of support for the Tories.

It's a massive question. My gut feeling is that Reform are going to do nothing but help the SNP here, because while the Brexit-loving farmers and fishermen will jump in bed with Reform, there's still plenty of well to do people in Aberdeenshire who would rather transfer to the Lib Dems from the Tories. If we assume a collapse in the Tory and Labour vote among unionists, the only real option for them are the Lib Dems, but that pretty much opens the door to the SNP to snatch constituency seats despite not having anywhere near a majority of votes.

Either way, Reform shouldn't be underestimated and if they don't win any constituency seats, I'm certain they'll gain some regional seats.

I think it's really a big question as to whether Reform can actually stand up to a bruising Scottish election where they can and will be painted as an English party. The Tories are in disarray, but I suspect that many of the Reform candidates will get bogged down when it becomes clear that Reform can't and won't embrace the specifics of Scottish politics. I'd also suggest that the real battle will be in the list seats, because it's easier there to hide behind party colours.

I found this, which shows that Reform in Scotland have a serious problem with their identity: https://reformuk.scot/our-contract/

Marketing says a lot. The test though in the run up to to the the Senedd and Scottish Parliament elections is how much can a Reform Cymru or a Reform Alba can develop a policy agenda that it can sell as distinct to that which Reform wants to peddle on a UK wide basis.

I think this will be the real test for Reform. If they try and just use English rhetoric in Scotland/Wales, they'll come unstuck because it simply won't work, except with the type of voter that is pro-Brexit and unionist anyway.

 

[brad465]

Well at least there's something a Reform UK group is doing that I agree with:

Reform council plans tax rise on second homes despite Farage calling it ‘extortion’

North Northamptonshire set to vote on policy earmarked for introduction in 2027

www.ft.com

A council led by Reform UK is planning to double council tax on second homes even though the policy has been described as “extortion” and “madness” by the party’s leader Nigel Farage.
North Northamptonshire, one of nine councils across England that Reform took control of at local elections in May, is set to vote on Tuesday on a proposal to introduce a 100 per cent council tax premium on second homes from April 2027.

 

[Acfb]

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