Northern rolling stock changes post electrification

[Bletchleyite]

I think you are correct about needing an incentive to get car drivers on to trains.

One thing I miss since privatisation are days like Network South east used to do which is go anywhere on the Network South East network for a £5. I do not see any of the private railway companies doing that

Erm, LM Great Escape? Though there's not been one for a while, it might have become the victim of its own success.

Neil

 

[Bald Rick]

One thing I miss since privatisation are days like Network South east used to do which is go anywhere on the Network South East network for a £5.

From memory there were only 3 of these Network days, one of which was exclusively for readers of Ian Allan magazines with special vouchers. All of them were between 1986 and 1988.

And I swear the last one was a tenner. Which in current money is about £26. (Not bad, granted).

 

[adsteamfan]

To achieve growth though you need to attract people who don't currently use the train. Unless they've tried before and been put off by overcrowding, they won't have a clue how likely they are to get a seat. Unless there's an obvious improvement in the timetable, which isn't planned AFAIK, any increase in passenger numbers will be dependent on getting maximum publicity for the 'new' trains. Does the expiring franchise have any requirement to or interest in advertising the new trains?

As soon as the new car park at N-le-W was open it filled and with little reduction in the number of cars parked on the surrounding roads. It would seem that part of the problem in attracting additional users is the lack of 'Park and Ride' facilities at key stations. People want to drive from home to the station unless they live really close - you can't rely on buses. Unfortunately, councils prefer to have houses built on spare land when it becomes available than have free parking for commuters - especially St.Helens council for land in Newton near the station!!

 

[Wavertreelad]

I also think anyone expecting huge growth as a result of electrification will be very disappointed. In the past routes with potential for huge growth have been chosen for electrification projects. This time Northern and TPE routes which have already seen exponential growth over recent years are being electrified. That level of growth can't possibly continue post-electrification unless we see huge growth in population.

I'm not so sure, I suspect that once the newly electrified routes start full operations there is a huge growth potential, particularly on the Liverpool to Manchester Line. As somebody who is commuting everyday between the two cities along the M62 you only have to look at the amount of traffic on it and the M602. A typical morning peak journey takes usually 60 to 75 minutes which should take 30/35 minutes, with queuing starting on some days from junc 7, (Rainhill) to beyond Junc 11, a situation which is likely to get worse before it get's better. If Northern Electrics could capture even 10% of this market it would be several hundred extra passengers per hour at least. However, there will be need to improve the park and ride facilities particularly at the Liverpool end which are lacking.

I am with you on the switching from 3rd rail to overhead services and have often questioned why it could not be done within the Merseyside/North West area and just been told that it is not feasible, due to the size of the tunnels etc.... within the Mersey rail network. Somehow, I cannot see that being a problem with the class 319s, if the refurbishment is done which on the first few looks to be the case.

As I understand it the 319's are having their third rail shoe equipment removed before they come North, so with the Ormskirk to Preston Line not even on the electrification horizon at this stage, the issue for the time being at least is remote. However, we should remember that Merseytravel has indicated that future stock purchases will be dual voltage which presumably would be designed to enter the Liverpool tunnels.

More capacity. If you can get a seat, the train is *much* more attractive.

Yes, that could be achieved using DMUs, but there aren't any.

Also, the lack of an underfloor engine makes them a bit more pleasant, but I doubt that is a deal maker (or breaker).

Neil

I suspect the prospect of getting a seat is a major pull, providing the cost is also competitive and the experience is not traumatic. Improving the ticket options might be helpful, particular if Northern Electrics were to develop some sort of commuter fare which incorporates the use of local transport at the destination end of the journey. This should be possible with both authorities developing their own versions of London's oyster card. The fuel price is a short term situation, give it a couple of years and it will start to go up again.

 

[tbtc]

Amusing to compare the "nobody will notice the change from a DMU to an EMU' argument when I'm so used to hearing the "bi-mode will be so noisy that passengers won't be able to hear themselves think with a diesel engine underneath the floor" line of argument...

I think the point was that electrification is not a massive improvement compared to making the service quicker/more frequent/go somewhere useful

Marginally faster (due to improved acceleration/ deceleration/ generally shorter dwell times).

But the main improvement is longer trains/ more seats on the electrified routes which means cascaded DMUs that will allow longer trains/ more seats on the routes that aren't currently being electrified (Warrington Central, Calder Valley etc).

It's not cost effective to build new DMUs at the moment, so electrification is the best means to an end (of longer trains, extra capacity).

More capacity. If you can get a seat, the train is *much* more attractive.

Yes, that could be achieved using DMUs, but there aren't any

That's it, in a nutshell.

To achieve growth though you need to attract people who don't currently use the train. Unless they've tried before and been put off by overcrowding, they won't have a clue how likely they are to get a seat. Unless there's an obvious improvement in the timetable, which isn't planned AFAIK, any increase in passenger numbers will be dependent on getting maximum publicity for the 'new' trains. Does the expiring franchise have any requirement to or interest in advertising the new trains?

We've seen pretty significant passenger growth over the past generation, even on lines that have seen practically now improvement in timetable or in rolling stock (or advertising).

One thing I miss since privatisation are days like Network South east used to do which is go anywhere on the Network South East network for a £5. I do not see any of the private railway companies doing that

Erm, LM Great Escape? Though there's not been one for a while, it might have become the victim of its own success

Northern do "ten pound" day tickets, EMT do "Red Dot" days, Southern do something similar, there's Club 55 at ATW/ ScotRail etc... plenty of offers from private TOCs.

However, with the railway a lot busier than in Network South East days, maybe they think there's less need to do this kind of thing (back then, Sunday was a quiet day, now it's a major shopping day with regular sporting fixtures etc too - so trains aren't so empty).

New branding - "Northern Electrics".

I like it - smart.

I think for the passengers of other lines to want their line to see the same treatment they really need to introduce frequency enhancements or improved connectivity.

I'm sure passengers using the Ormskirk-Preston service would love to get a half-hourly to Liverpool but I'm not sure they'd be excited about the prospect of the existing Ormskirk-Preston service being operated by a 319.

There's more chance of getting that half hourly frequency if we can displace dozens of DMUs from other lines (by electrifying them) to potentially cascade onto other lines (like to Ormskirk).

Exactly why would using a 319 increase alone increase patronage over running a 4 car Sprinter formation? It wouldn't. The public don't share the view of some enthusiasts that electric trains are paradise on wheels.

Where's the spare DMUs to allow four car operation on all line like this? There are none. So, if you want four car operation, electrification is the best option.

Debating 150 vs 319 on a route not on anybody's electrification short list?
I think there are more urgent matters.
A 4-car EMU beats a 2-car DMU any day of the week on any of Northern's routes.
The fine tuning can come later.

Well put!

Enthusiasts are far too obsessed with the "fine tuning" and generally fail to see the bigger picture.

I remember the days when 319/0's used to work to Rugby in Connex days. I would prefer them any day over a 150/153/Pacer etc...

Why all the fuss !?

Why the fuss? Because people like to complain, so that they'll even complain about increases in capacity, better trains, investment... because it won't be brand new trains.

Daft, I know, but people want to find something they can moan about (and ignore the bigger picture)

 

[Techniquest]

Erm, LM Great Escape? Though there's not been one for a while, it might have become the victim of its own success.

Neil

It is indeed a while now since the last Great Escape, the last ones I did were 8th and 9th September 2014, it carrying on until the Sunday that week. I did the one on 9th September was simply because it saved me either 80p or £1.60 for a single home, not much perhaps but it made a difference!

I was expecting one to be announced by now, with February half term fast approaching, surprisingly nothing's been mentioned yet. Which is really frustrating me, I want to get on one so I can get some 350/3s in the book, not to mention find my last LM 321 and get the remaining shacks on WCML South done!

 

[323235]

Don't despair, a Great Escape is coming! Great Escape February/March 2015

 

[158756]

We've seen pretty significant passenger growth over the past generation, even on lines that have seen practically now improvement in timetable or in rolling stock (or advertising).

I was talking about the idea that a newly electrified route should suddenly see much bigger growth than the rest of the network. Sure, assuming cheap petrol doesn't tempt people back to their cars, these routes might see 1-2% growth per year in line with the rest of the North, but where are the extra electrification-related passengers coming from?
I'd be surprised if many car commuters could tell you how likely they would be to get a seat on the train.

 

[HSTEd]

Electrification reduces the marginal operating cost of a train by reducing fuel costs, reducing maintenence requirements and increasing average speeds (reducing the number of diagrams to run a certain level of service).

This will tend to result in it being economical to increase the number of trains significantly, although nowhere near as much as would have been the case in the days of steam traction, when costs would drop by half.
Additionally we are soon to be swimming in hundreds of carriages of EMU stock which will either go to regional electrification projects or the scrapline (virtually the entire 31x series essentially).
This removes the stock availability constraint on train lengths and allows far more trains to be run at the maximum feasible length.

 

[northwichcat]

I'm not so sure, I suspect that once the newly electrified routes start full operations there is a huge growth potential, particularly on the Liverpool to Manchester Line. As somebody who is commuting everyday between the two cities along the M62 you only have to look at the amount of traffic on it and the M602. A typical morning peak journey takes usually 60 to 75 minutes which should take 30/35 minutes, with queuing starting on some days from junc 7, (Rainhill) to beyond Junc 11, a situation which is likely to get worse before it get's better. If Northern Electrics could capture even 10% of this market it would be several hundred extra passengers per hour at least. However, there will be need to improve the park and ride facilities particularly at the Liverpool end which are lacking.

Surely the prospective passengers are going to more interested in the hourly non-stop services between Liverpool and Manchester currently operated by 185s then the hourly semi-fast service which will be operated by 319s?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Surely the prospective passengers are going to more interested in the hourly non-stop services between Liverpool and Manchester currently operated by 185s then the hourly semi-fast service which will be operated by 319s?

Some commuters don't go for the fastest service, they go for the one where they are certain of a seat. That's how I do it, anyway.

Neil

 

[northwichcat]

Where's the spare DMUs to allow four car operation on all line like this? There are none. So, if you want four car operation, electrification is the best option.

You're missing the point completely. There's no demand for 4 car and switching a DMU to an EMU without any other improvements won't get double the number of passengers. Neil Williams was suggesting people would like a 4 car train just because they can spread out more. However, who's going to fund the extra capacity when it's not needed? If electrification results in lots of services getting extra capacity when it's not needed then it's not an effective solution as solving the overcrowding problem.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Some commuters don't go for the fastest service, they go for the one where they are certain of a seat. That's how I do it, anyway.

Neil

As I was talking about prospective passengers not actual passengers how would they know which ones have spare seats?

 

[Bletchleyite]

You're missing the point completely. There's no demand for 4 car

Eh? Have you ever used commuter services out of Manchester, for example? There is demand for 4-car *and some*.

As I was talking about prospective passengers not actual passengers how would they know which ones have spare seats?

LM do this:
http://www.londonmidland.com/your-journey/more/finding-a-seat/

perhaps Northern should follow. Though I would like to see it on the journey planner like the Swiss do.

Neil

 

[northwichcat]

Eh? Have you ever used commuter services out of Manchester, for example? There is demand for 4-car *and some*.

Yesterday when talking about the Ormskirk to Preston service you said

I'd rather have a 319 than a cramped, unreliable 153. Sure 153s have 2+2 seating but the pitch is inhuman.

What has that got to do with Manchester? Do you even know where Manchester is?

 

[deltic08]

What incentive to use the train does an EMU offer that the current trains don't?

If agree that Northern could get plenty of new customers if they go for a big marketing campaign on better, faster, longer, modern(because it uses electricity) trains, but if they don't, or the passengers don't think the trains are so good, or indeed, the price of petrol is low, they might not see any increase at all, or even a decrease with petrol cheap.

I was a daily commuter between Harrogate and Leeds in 1971 at the changeover to decimal currency. The anytime return (no day return fares on this line in those days) was 0.34p and the cost of a gallon, yes gallon of petrol was 0.33p. Parking was also free at Harrogate station.

To-day the fare for commuting is £10 return and parking £3 whereas a gallon of petrol is roughly £5. If you are lucky enough to have free or cheap parking in Leeds, then commuting by train is approaching three times that of car. Electrification and 319s is better than Pacers but still not enough to attract current motorists back to train.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yesterday when talking about the Ormskirk to Preston service you said

I'm not clear of the relevance of EMUs to Ormskirk-Preston at any point in the next 30 years or so. The 319s are going on busy services, not on branch lines. Not that the passengers wouldn't like them on branch lines, of course, as I think they would.

If the line is electrified, it won't be 319s running on it, because they won't fit through the Merseyrail Link tunnels. But if they were, as they come in 4s, there would be some spare capacity.

A 2-car DMU is perfectly adequate for Ormskirk-Preston. A Class 150 is just about ideal. If you were going to use a second DMU on it it would be best to use it with a second driver and guard to increase the service back to clockface hourly, at which point it might increase usage a bit.

What has that got to do with Manchester? Do you even know where Manchester is?

The 319s are intended for use initially on services that serve Manchester and are heavily used by commuters.

Of course I know where it is. I'm a Northerner by birth, I lived in Aintree for 7 years, grew up in Ormskirk (hence being very familiar with that line, and the odd mention of Aughton Park, my home station in my formative years) and went to university in Manchester. That do you? I do now live down South, but that's barely relevant other than it means I have experience of how it works down here (and that class 31x and 32x EMUs really are not that bad).

Edit: Yes, we like our Desiros. But if they were replaced with 319s it wouldn't be the end of the world provided there were the same number of them.

Neil

 

[northwichcat]

I'm not clear of the relevance of EMUs to Ormskirk-Preston at any point in the next 30 years or so. The 319s are going on busy services, not on branch lines. Not that the passengers wouldn't like them on branch lines, of course, as I think they would.

If the line is electrified, it won't be 319s running on it, because they won't fit through the Merseyrail Link tunnels. But if they were, as they come in 4s, there would be some spare capacity.

A 2-car DMU is perfectly adequate for Ormskirk-Preston. A Class 150 is just about ideal.

The 319s are intended for use initially on services that serve Manchester and are heavily used by commuters.

Of course I know where it is. I'm a Northerner by birth, I lived in Aintree for 7 years, grew up in Ormskirk (hence being very familiar with that line, and the odd mention of Aughton Park, my home station in my formative years) and went to university in Manchester. That do you? I do now live down South, but that's barely relevant other than it means I have experience of how it works down here (and that class 31x and 32x EMUs really are not that bad).

I was using Ormskirk-Preston as an example of where a line could be given the same service using a 319 and it probably wouldn't attract any new passengers. Alternatively it could be given real improvements alongside electrification e.g. a half-hourly service between Preston and Liverpool via Ormskirk and would likely attract new passengers because of those improvements, rather than the existence of electrics.

You objected to my suggestion that just switching the existing service to be operated by a 319 to the same frequency wouldn't attract new passengers by saying I must really hate 319s and you didn't understand why.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You objected to my suggestion that just switching the existing service to be operated by a 319 to the same frequency wouldn't attract new passengers.

Ah, I was objecting to that on a more general basis. Probably wouldn't make much difference to Ormskirk-Preston (though would a switch to EMU allow it to be speeded up?) - but it would, because of the capacity, make a difference on Manchester area commuter services.

The biggest benefit of the EMUs is that there are plenty of them.

Neil

 

[61653 HTAFC]

For an example of the 'Sparks Effect' look no further than the Ilkley and Skipton lines. Upon electrification, the services were bumped up to 2tph on all 'arms' of the Shipley lines (Leeds services were already at 2tph), and a new Leeds-Bradford service introduced. Even with the 308s the capacity was boosted significantly from what had previously been the preserve of 142s and (mostly 2-car) 144s (even the occasional 141!), and journeys were sped up. By the time the 333s arrived, the sparks effect had seen the tired old 308s overwhelmed during the peaks.

Once the 319s are fully bedded in, the timetable can be looked at to take advantage of the superior acceleration of the EMUs. There'll presumably be a recast as part of the 'Northern Hub' works, as the Ordsall Chord and extra platforms at Piccadilly are introduced.

 

[Techniquest]

Don't despair, a Great Escape is coming! Great Escape February/March 2015

YEEHAA! I must have missed that email, either that or it's not come through yet (haven't looked today at the moment), I'm definitely booking at least one Great Escape for this round, maybe even two!

Thanks for the gen!

 

[Wavertreelad]

Surely the prospective passengers are going to more interested in the hourly non-stop services between Liverpool and Manchester currently operated by 185s then the hourly semi-fast service which will be operated by 319s?

I suspect it is not so simple, because you are only catering for prospective passengers wishing to travel to and from the terminal stations at either end. Travelling for example from say Huyton to Lime Street by car including parking is 30 minutes plus and probably expensive, operating a service which say stopped at Wavertree and Huyton, St Helens Junc, Newton Le Willows and Eccles and vice versa would likely be more attractive to prospective commuters along the route.

 

[Geeves]

There she goes!!

[Youtube]kiHHqMHBMcE[/Youtube]

 

[deltic08]

New branding - "Northern Electrics".

I thought this livery was nauseous originally but is growing on me since addition of branding.

I assume these are the three that will launch the service with others as and when refreshed? Is there another nearly ready at Wolverton?

 

[po8crg]

As soon as the new car park at N-le-W was open it filled and with little reduction in the number of cars parked on the surrounding roads. It would seem that part of the problem in attracting additional users is the lack of 'Park and Ride' facilities at key stations. People want to drive from home to the station unless they live really close - you can't rely on buses. Unfortunately, councils prefer to have houses built on spare land when it becomes available than have free parking for commuters - especially St.Helens council for land in Newton near the station!!

When I commuted through NLW station, I used to park on Park Road North (there's a little carpark there) and walk through the woods, because it was the only place I could rely on finding a parking place.

Unless they buy up that breaker's yard and turn the whole thing into parking, N-le-W is never going to have enough spaces for commuters - it has a 3tph service to Manchester (Earlestown and SHJ only have 2tph), and is the best route from most of St. Helens' northern suburbs. I know people that drive there from as far afield as Rainford (in preference to catching the 0718).

There's a whole zone from central St. Helens all the way up to Skem that has to either change in Wigan from their local station or drive to NLW - or rely on that one Kirkby-Manchester train that arrives before 9 am.

 

[tbtc]

I’m surprised by the way that this thread is going. Nobody around London is questioning why we are increasing train lengths to eight/ten/twelve coaches long because they understand that longer trains will attract more passengers (and cope with future increases in demand) – look at how London Overground have found that adding extra coaches causes passenger demand to go up - I’m not sure why the concept of longer trains for north west England is being dismissed on this thread?

We’ve gone from complaints that services around Manchester are all “overcrowded” to complaints that “there’s no need for increased capacity (and anyway, people won’t find out about the increase in the number of seats so won’t be attracted)” hock:

Whilst not every single service is at maximum capacity today, passenger growth means that we will need this extra capacity over the next decade.

You're missing the point completely. There's no demand for 4 car and switching a DMU to an EMU without any other improvements won't get double the number of passengers

There is demand for four car trains on the routes that they are electrifying though (ignoring your attempt to make this about Ormskirk-Preston which obviously isn’t being electrified).

Since nobody has claimed that passenger demand will immediately double, it seems a straw man argument to point out that it won’t. Nobody was claiming that it would!

If electrification results in lots of services getting extra capacity when it's not needed then it's not an effective solution as solving the overcrowding problem.

Are you now saying that extra capacity on routes like Manchester – Bolton won’t be needed?

I never thought I’d see the day when you were complaining about too much capacity around Manchester and how lots of services apparently don’t need any extra seats!

You used to be fond of pointing out how busy trains were across the whole day (not just at peak times), but now that EMUs are coming (which you don’t seem to want), you’re telling us that there’s plenty of spare capacity on the Manchester – Liverpool, Manchester – Bolton (etc) corridors?

Blimey!

I was using Ormskirk-Preston as an example of where a line could be given the same service using a 319 and it probably wouldn't attract any new passengers

So, you are using an example of a route with no realistic prospect of being electrified any time soon which copes perfectly well with 23m/40m trains (apart from one day a year when the Grand National is on) to “prove” that 319s won’t be the answer to every single problem?

Put it this way, would increasing capacity on the Mid Cheshire line see a rise in passenger numbers (as more seats made the journey more attractive? Would you want regular four coach (80m) trains on the Mid Cheshire line (even if not every seat was going to be used off-peak)?

Ormskirk-Preston is one of the quietest routes in north west England and not on the electrification “radar”, so seems an odd example to use... luckily the electrification resources are being focussed on busier routes in the area between Manchester/ Liverpool – Wigan/Bolton - Preston/ Blackpool where the extra capacity will be required.

 

[northwichcat]

tbtc - It seems you really struggle to understand what a hypothetical example is. I specifically said Ormskirk-Preston because it's a line where a 4 car EMU would be wasted if it was just electrified and no other improvements were implemented. However, it's also a line where other improvements could be implemented which would encourage growth.

Some people on here seem to think switch a DMU to an EMU and you'll see huge growth as a result. I was pointing out there needs to be more than just switching DMUs to EMUs to get huge growth.

I'll never forget the time I travelled on a Renfe service operated by a brand new diesel train and two British enthusiasts on the same train thought they were travelling on the electric version until the other one pointed out it must be a diesel train with quiet engines as there were no electrics for the train to run on.

In terms of the Mid-Cheshire line I think a half-hourly service at the main stations operated mainly by 2 car 175s with 3 cars on the 2 busiest diagrams would attract a lot of extra passengers. An hourly 319 all-stops service probably wouldn't attract many extra passengers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'll never forget the time I travelled on a Renfe service operated by a brand new diesel train and two British enthusiasts on the same train thought they were travelling on the electric version until the other one pointed out it must be a diesel train with quiet engines as there were no electrics for the train to run on.

There won't be lots of brand-new diesel trains (though I would concede there is a chance of a small order). It'll be EMU or old, noisy DMU.

Neil

 

[Wolfie]

I'll never forget the time I travelled on a Renfe service operated by a brand new diesel train and two British enthusiasts on the same train thought they were travelling on the electric version until the other one pointed out it must be a diesel train with quiet engines as there were no electrics for the train to run on.

In terms of the Mid-Cheshire line I think a half-hourly service at the main stations operated mainly by 2 car 175s with 3 cars on the 2 busiest diagrams would attract a lot of extra passengers. An hourly 319 all-stops service probably wouldn't attract many extra passengers.

With respect to your first point, perhaps the loading-gauge differences allow more physical seperation and/or nosie suppression on RENFE rolling stock, although my own experience suggests that their DMUs aren't that quiet.

With respect to your second point, which seems little more than an unsupported hunch, it would be potentially a damned expensive experiment, even if the rolling stock was available which it is not and probably will not be, to find out if you are correct.

It seems ironic that you might wish to pursue such a hunch while complaining at expenditure to meet already established demand in another part of the country....

 

[AM9]

When I commuted through NLW station, I used to park on Park Road North (there's a little carpark there) and walk through the woods, because it was the only place I could rely on finding a parking place.

Unless they buy up that breaker's yard and turn the whole thing into parking, N-le-W is never going to have enough spaces for commuters - it has a 3tph service to Manchester (Earlestown and SHJ only have 2tph), and is the best route from most of St. Helens' northern suburbs. I know people that drive there from as far afield as Rainford (in preference to catching the 0718).

There's a whole zone from central St. Helens all the way up to Skem that has to either change in Wigan from their local station or drive to NLW - or rely on that one Kirkby-Manchester train that arrives before 9 am.

If Newton-Le-Willows, along with many of the other staions on the routes being electrified, are to become real commuter stops, then expect to have to pay for car parking. About £8 per day* is not uncommon across the London commuter area.
* when leaving a car before 10:00. £3 seems to be a norm for parking after 10:00.

 

[northwichcat]

With respect to your second point, which seems little more than an unsupported hunch, it would be potentially a damned expensive experiment, even if the rolling stock was available which it is not and probably will not be, to find out if you are correct.

I was giving an example of what would be best for the line and it would probably be cheaper than electrifying the line.

We used to have a morning peak service to Manchester operated by a 175 and an evening peak service in the other direction operated by a 158. That ended when Northern took over and people did stop using the train and started driving to Altrincham/Wilmslow and beyond as a result of it, who seemed to be mainly people like solicitors, lawyers, accountants etc. Maybe those people could be attracted back if a high quality train was provided, they might also pay extra if a First Class area was provided.