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New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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Richard Scott

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And now we have the last example of trying to move the goalposts: Jeremy Hunt has said that the lockdown should continue until the number of cases falls below 1,000 cases per day; he thinks that the Government should aim to suppress Covid sufficiently to enable a South Korea-style approach of intensive contact tracing.


EtabkC8XYAAw7ea
That needs kicking into touch straight away. Just another one of those who's keen to keep themselves in the limelight.
 
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Solent&Wessex

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And now we have the last example of trying to move the goalposts: Jeremy Hunt has said that the lockdown should continue until the number of cases falls below 1,000 cases per day; he thinks that the Government should aim to suppress Covid sufficiently to enable a South Korea-style approach of intensive contact tracing.


EtabkC8XYAAw7ea
Which at the current rate of descent and assuming no increase or decrease in this rate, will be in roughly 11 weeks time
 

Domh245

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How long can these hospitals be at breaking point for? I’d like definitions to be punk around all these phrases to be honest.

Possibly a while yet. ICUs are generally still running very high, and whilst several regions are starting to trend down, several are either still rising, or have plateaued (London particularly), but in most cases are still significantly higher than average - the exception being NE&Yorks which has just about breached it's usual level of capacity but is trending upwards. Couple that with the fact that most of the vaccinations so far will have no significant effect on ICU occupancy
 

brad465

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That needs kicking into touch straight away. Just another one of those who's keen to keep themselves in the limelight.
Hopefully many with influence over this matter see him as a has-been and ignore that, unless that level is reached relatively quickly.
Which at the current rate of descent and assuming no increase or decrease in this rate, will be in roughly 11 weeks time
Under exponential decay we'd expect it to slow down, however where it gets tricky is the rapid vaccine rollout is turbo-charging immunity which may keep a high rate of decline going for a while. The ZOE study was initially showing a slowdown in rate of decline after the latest peak, however more recently the decline has been linear, so perhaps a sign the vaccines, which have now been proven to show a notable reduction in transmission as well, are doing their job among those they've been rolled out to so far.
 

GodAtum

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Sadiq Khan and TFL may force Tube and bus passengers to wear medical-grade anti-Covid masks amid fears cloth face coverings don't protect against mutant strains of virus.

 

Bikeman78

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Possibly a while yet. ICUs are generally still running very high, and whilst several regions are starting to trend down, several are either still rising, or have plateaued (London particularly), but in most cases are still significantly higher than average - the exception being NE&Yorks which has just about breached it's usual level of capacity but is trending upwards. Couple that with the fact that most of the vaccinations so far will have no significant effect on ICU occupancy
Can you elaborate? Don't most of the people that die spend time in ICU first or don't they make it there?
 

Kite159

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I heard on the radio that Sir Keir doesn't want the government to ease the lockdown too soon.

Won't affect him with his gold plated pension and secure job :rolleyes:
 

brad465

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I heard on the radio that Sir Keir doesn't want the government to ease the lockdown too soon.

Won't affect him with his gold plated pension and secure job :rolleyes:
Throughout the pandemic Starmer has said things on the lines of calling for restrictions to be put in earlier and/or tougher, which, while I don't agree with the whole approach, it's all ended up being good foresight that has undermined Johnson because he ultimately caved into whatever Starmer previously said.

My guess is the news today leaked in the Telegraph, and statements from CRG leader Mark Harper, are signs Johnson's hand will be forced into lifting restrictions earlier than many would like, so Starmer could well be doing what he's done before and either trying to trap Johnson and/or get him to not follow what some in his own party are saying.
 

bramling

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I don't mind so much if they tinker with the restrictions slightly so some things previously open in Tier 3 (eg non essential retail) are no longer allowed, providing gyms & leisure centres are open, and going out of Indeed. There will be no economic rebound unless people are able to partake in economic activity, rather than being confined to their living rooms.

And likewise this will be no solace to businesses who haven’t been able to make their books balance through the last year. Non-essential shops, hospitality and culture are three areas I’d expect to be hit hard.

Sadiq Khan and TFL may force Tube and bus passengers to wear medical-grade anti-Covid masks amid fears cloth face coverings don't protect against mutant strains of virus.


Khan can do one. Do they honestly think that it’s possible to correctly use a medical grade mask for a Tube journey?

When one sees how masks are used within their intended setting - hospitals - it is completely different. They come straight out of a container, hands are sterilised before touching them, staff don’t touch them once deployed, and they go straight in the clinical waste bin after a single use. By contrast even the hardcore mask obsessive can be frequently seen misusing them, look at Biden for an example of that.
 

Tezza1978

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And likewise this will be no solace to businesses who haven’t been able to make their books balance through the last year. Non-essential shops, hospitality and culture are three areas I’d expect to be hit hard.



Khan can do one. Do they honestly think that it’s possible to correctly use a medical grade mask for a Tube journey?

When one sees how masks are used within their intended setting - hospitals - it is completely different. They come straight out of a container, hands are sterilised before touching them, staff don’t touch them once deployed, and they go straight in the clinical waste bin after a single use. By contrast even the hardcore mask obsessive can be frequently seen misusing them, look at Biden for an example of thatL

Looking forward to see how Khan is going to explain to low paid key workers and the unemployed that they need to shell out £6 to £7 for a single FFP/N95 mask every time they travel. And that TFL employees need to police this and question every one's face covering? Unless wants to give them out for free and explain to the government that this cost will be coming out of TFL's bailout money, I can see that going down well........
 

Bantamzen

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Looking forward to see how Khan is going to explain to low paid key workers and the unemployed that they need to shell out £6 to £7 for a single FFP/N95 mask every time they travel. And that TFL employees need to police this and question every one's face covering? Unless wants to give them out for free and explain to the government that this cost will be coming out of TFL's bailout money, I can see that going down well........
As with a lot of Labour's covid policies, low paid workers and the unemployed don't matter one jot. Despite it's foundations rooted deeply in the working class & the fight for their rights, Labour has long left the working class behind. It is now a party for middle class suburbians who have developed a pseudo-conscience, and are easily frightened.
 

Domh245

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Can you elaborate? Don't most of the people that die spend time in ICU first or don't they make it there?

They don't make it there. Going into ICU is quite intense on the body so they don't tend to admit older patients as a general rule of thumb.

The graphic linked in this post shows that around half of ICU admissions are 45-64, and a further 30% are 65-74, so there's still a long way to go with vaccination to ease ICU admission
 

Bantamzen

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They don't make it there. Going into ICU is quite intense on the body so they don't tend to admit older patients as a general rule of thumb.

The graphic linked in this post shows that around half of ICU admissions are 45-64, and a further 30% are 65-74, so there's still a long way to go with vaccination to ease ICU admission
Interesting how they grouped the eldest into 10 year slots, whereas the 45-64 were grouped into a 20 year one. I wonder what that chart would look like if they display 45-54 & 55-64 year groups? As someone who writes statistical & analytical applications, I am often fascinated by things like this, because it is so very easy to distort data to fit a narrative (something I am happy to say I always challenge professionally).
 

Domh245

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Interesting how they grouped the eldest into 10 year slots, whereas the 45-64 were grouped into a 20 year one. I wonder what that chart would look like if they display 45-54 & 55-64 year groups? As someone who writes statistical & analytical applications, I am often fascinated by things like this, because it is so very easy to distort data to fit a narrative (something I am happy to say I always challenge professionally).

Slightly biased towards the 55-64 group, but still a fairly significant number for the 45-55s I'd think, looking at this graph from the ICNARC report

1612513301288.png

I note that the groups used are the same bands used by the ONS in their death analysis, so I don't know if it's just a standard age banding within government/healthcare, or some other reason
 

Bantamzen

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Slightly biased towards the 55-64 group, but still a fairly significant number for the 45-55s I'd think, looking at this graph from the ICNARC report

View attachment 90003

I note that the groups used are the same bands used by the ONS in their death analysis, so I don't know if it's just a standard age banding within government/healthcare, or some other reason
I don't know if it is standardised at ONS or the healthcare sector, but I know in my sector we would be more likely to use the ages bands shown on that last graph rather than the previous one. Perhaps there is good reason for those former bands, but it does show how data can be skewed easily. As you say a chart showing 45-54 & 55-64 would likely show the latter to be far more impacted that the former group, so it does raise the question why not show this so that vaccinations can be better targeted still?
 

Class 33

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It does sound like the first easing of lockdown on 8th March will simply be just schools reopening! Is that it? Whilst I understand the importance of schools reopening and kids getting their education back, there are still a lot of other important businesses in this country that need to be allowed to start reopening!

Also hope that on the first easing of lockdown the "Stay at home" messaging is dropped. What would then be 9 weeks after the lockdown started, people really need to be allowed to get out for at least a few hours out somewhere, rather than officially only be allowed out to get shopping, short exercise locally, or going to work. But I think if the "Stay at home" message does still remain and the weather really starts warming up next month(very possible going by previous years), then I think a lot of people won't be sticking to that, they'll be heading out to the nations parks, beaches and beauty spots to enjoy the nice weather!
 

kristiang85

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Khan can do one. Do they honestly think that it’s possible to correctly use a medical grade mask for a Tube journey?

When one sees how masks are used within their intended setting - hospitals - it is completely different. They come straight out of a container, hands are sterilised before touching them, staff don’t touch them once deployed, and they go straight in the clinical waste bin after a single use. By contrast even the hardcore mask obsessive can be frequently seen misusing them, look at Biden for an example of that.

Well that ensures I'll walk for half an hour to work from Waterloo rather than take the tube then, once the working restrictions are lifted. I'm not shelling out for those masks and contributing to Khan's TFL coffers at the same time if he does that.

I need to lose the lockdown flab anyway.

I really hope he's voted out in May, but given Labour's target voters tend to be Londoners, and the alternatives aren't exactly great either, I sadly think the useless man will be voted back in.
 

Domh245

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Perhaps there is good reason for those former bands, but it does show how data can be skewed easily. As you say a chart showing 45-54 & 55-64 would likely show the latter to be far more impacted that the former group, so it does raise the question why not show this so that vaccinations can be better targeted still?

I think it is just that morbidity and health outcomes vary so much with age that those bands give the best compromise between showing the trend and showing the data, but yes skewing of data will always be an issue to some extent. It'll definitely be interesting to see in the inquiries if vaccine priority should have been changed to one that tries to ease pressure on healthcare over removing deaths. I don't think that politically it's a viable strategy, or indeed one that would have sped up easing of restrictions.
 

takno

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Slightly biased towards the 55-64 group, but still a fairly significant number for the 45-55s I'd think, looking at this graph from the ICNARC report

View attachment 90003

I note that the groups used are the same bands used by the ONS in their death analysis, so I don't know if it's just a standard age banding within government/healthcare, or some other reason
They've been using it, or sometimes a 45-75 age group throughout. Last March there were a lot of places showing deaths by age group and using equally wide bars, giving the (accidental I'm sure) impression that the disease suddenly got deadly at 45
 

joncombe

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Well that ensures I'll walk for half an hour to work from Waterloo rather than take the tube then, once the working restrictions are lifted. I'm not shelling out for those masks and contributing to Khan's TFL coffers at the same time if he does that.

I need to lose the lockdown flab anyway.

I really hope he's voted out in May, but given Labour's target voters tend to be Londoners, and the alternatives aren't exactly great either, I sadly think the useless man will be voted back in.
I find it so bizarre Labour were pushing for things like taxes or bans on disposable coffee cups and likewise. Things like bans on straws. Now we have them pushing for "everyone must use a disposable single-use mask". It's odd. I am sure it won't be long before it becomes 2 masks (Anthony Fauci in the US is already pushing for that). And what then. 4 masks better than 2. 8 masks better than 4!
 

yorksrob

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I find it so bizarre Labour were pushing for things like taxes or bans on disposable coffee cups and likewise. Things like bans on straws. Now we have them pushing for "everyone must use a disposable single-use mask". It's odd. I am sure it won't be long before it becomes 2 masks (Anthony Fauci in the US is already pushing for that). And what then. 4 masks better than 2. 8 masks better than 4!

At least in the US they don't have the worst excesses of lockdown. In this we're country we're likely to have a 'greatest hits' of the most onerous restrictions from around the world.
 

kristiang85

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I find it so bizarre Labour were pushing for things like taxes or bans on disposable coffee cups and likewise. Things like bans on straws. Now we have them pushing for "everyone must use a disposable single-use mask". It's odd. I am sure it won't be long before it becomes 2 masks (Anthony Fauci in the US is already pushing for that). And what then. 4 masks better than 2. 8 masks better than 4!

Yep, on a single walk the other day I saw 5 masks left on the ground. Its an environmental catastrophe waiting to happen for the oceans, when you think how many must have been produced in the last year.

Labour are a bunch of hypocrites (in many areas) and a completely ineffective opposition.
 

py_megapixel

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Yep, on a single walk the other day I saw 5 masks left on the ground. Its an environmental catastrophe waiting to happen for the oceans, when you think how many must have been produced in the last year.

Labour are a bunch of hypocrites (in many areas) and a completely ineffective opposition.
But as you said earlier - no-one's really any better at the moment, are they...
 

Mintona

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Here we go. Twitter thread on the new variants. I’m not sure how to quote properly from an external source, I’ve made an effort with the first tweet.

But lockdown is here for a long time yet. Probably the rest of this year at the very least.


“TWO DIFFERENT #COVID19 PANDEMICS—Many think with cases dropping that pandemic is nearly over. But truth is, there are now 2 different #SARSCoV2 pandemics diverging—old strain is waning, while the more contagious #B117 strain is dominating. We will be soon slammed very hard.”
 

yorksrob

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Here we go. Twitter thread on the new variants. I’m not sure how to quote properly from an external source, I’ve made an effort with the first tweet.

But lockdown is here for a long time yet. Probably the rest of this year at the very least.


“TWO DIFFERENT #COVID19 PANDEMICS—Many think with cases dropping that pandemic is nearly over. But truth is, there are now 2 different #SARSCoV2 pandemics diverging—old strain is waning, while the more contagious #B117 strain is dominating. We will be soon slammed very hard.”

That thread is looking at it from a North American perspective where they haven't had so much of the new varient yet.

We've already had it.
 

NorthOxonian

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Here we go. Twitter thread on the new variants. I’m not sure how to quote properly from an external source, I’ve made an effort with the first tweet.

But lockdown is here for a long time yet. Probably the rest of this year at the very least.


“TWO DIFFERENT #COVID19 PANDEMICS—Many think with cases dropping that pandemic is nearly over. But truth is, there are now 2 different #SARSCoV2 pandemics diverging—old strain is waning, while the more contagious #B117 strain is dominating. We will be soon slammed very hard.”
I wouldn't trust that source, I'm afraid. That doctor has a terrible record for scaremongering and twisting facts to support an extreme "Zero-Covid" narrative. As far as I'm concerned, he's the Ivor Cummings of the pro-lockdown side.

Not to mention he's talking about the US - which has a very different situation both regarding vaccines and which strains are more common there. Even if they had lockdown for the rest of the year (which they almost certainly won't), that doesn't mean that we're going to be in the same position.
 

py_megapixel

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Here we go. Twitter thread on the new variants. I’m not sure how to quote properly from an external source, I’ve made an effort with the first tweet.

But lockdown is here for a long time yet. Probably the rest of this year at the very least.
If lockdown continues to the end of 2021, I don't think I'll cope.
It just about manages to work for me for now, but it's entirely unsustainable.
 

Bikeman78

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If lockdown continues to the end of 2021, I don't think I'll cope.
It just about manages to work for me for now, but it's entirely unsustainable.
I won't be sitting around all year. I'll be out and about by April/May at the latest. My parents have both been vaccinated so if Boris wants to keep the hotels shut I'll go and stay with them.
 

duncanp

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Encouragingly the minister James Cleverly, who was doing the broadcast rounds this morning, was saying that plans to ease the lockdown will take into account the needs of the economy, people's mental health and the education of our children, which contradict's Jeremy Hunt's ludicrous assertion that we need to wait until new cases are below a completely arbitrary 1,000 per day before we can ease restrictions.

At long last, there seems to be a recognition in government circles that they need to think about other things rather than just the figures relating to COVID-19.
From the Sky News live feed:-

Following Jeremy Hunt's urgings not to relax measures - and pressure in the opposite direction from a number of other Tory MPs - Foreign Office minister James Cleverly has said he is not able to give a timetable of restrictions easing.
He said plans will take into consideration "the needs of the economy, people's mental health, the education of our children".
"The decisions will be based on the assessment of what is safe, as well as effective," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.
"I can't give you absolute guarantees of exactly when restrictions will be eased, in which order, in which sectors, I'm just not able to do that.
"But those decisions will be guided by the science. They will take into consideration the needs of the economy, people's mental health, the education of our children, all these things are incredibly important.
"And I totally get the frustration that we all feel with these restrictions, but they are there for a reason."
 
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