New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[brad465]

The Bank of England have produced an optimistic forecast where thanks to the vaccine they expect a strong recovery:

Bank of England: Economy to rebound strongly due to vaccine

High Street banks are also told to prepare for the possibility that interest rates could fall below zero.

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK's rapid Covid-19 vaccination programme will help the economy rebound strongly this year, according to the Bank of England.

The economy is expected to shrink 4.2% in the first three months of 2021, amid tighter lockdown restrictions to slow the spread of the virus.

However, policymakers expect a rebound in the spring as people become more confident about spending.

It came as the Bank held interest rates at 0.1%.

What does this mean for households?​

The Bank said economic growth was expected to "recover rapidly" in 2021, with a successful vaccination programme supporting a "material recovery in household spending".

Its latest Monetary Policy Report said the positive vaccine news had driven an increase in UK holiday bookings later this year, although overseas bookings remained muted.

However I do emphasise "optimistic", given it depends a lot on when the Government ease restrictions, which is not in the Bank's control, and aside from the Covid restrictions, with increasing unemployment and in particular fear of unemployment, consumer spending won't surge up like they think it will if restrictions are not eased quickly and job creation isn't quick.

I do think our heavy reliance on consumerism is a longstanding economic issue we have, but that's another story.

 

[yorksrob]

The Bank of England have produced an optimistic forecast where thanks to the vaccine they expect a strong recovery:

Bank of England: Economy to rebound strongly due to vaccine

High Street banks are also told to prepare for the possibility that interest rates could fall below zero.

www.bbc.co.uk

However I do emphasise "optimistic", given it depends a lot on when the Government ease restrictions, which is not in the Bank's control, and aside from the Covid restrictions, with increasing unemployment and in particular fear of unemployment, consumer spending won't surge up like they think it will if restrictions are not eased quickly and job creation isn't quick.

I do think our heavy reliance on consumerism is a longstanding economic issue we have, but that's another story.

Indeed. There will be no economic rebound unless people are able to partake in economic activity, rather than being confined to their living rooms.

 

[nlogax]

Indeed. There will be no economic rebound unless people are able to partake in economic activity, rather than being confined to their living rooms.

Note there was allegedly going to be a decision to reduce interest rates to 0% today but instead 0.1% has been retained and banks have been given six months to prepare for such a move. I can't help but wonder if thoughts of an imminent rebound were a factor in this decision.

 

[yorksrob]

Note there was allegedly going to be a decision to reduce interest rates to 0% today but instead 0.1% has been retained and banks have been given six months to prepare for such a move. I can't help but wonder if thoughts of an imminent rebound were a factor in this decision.

To be honest, the 0.1% interest rate is a hangover from the financial crisis of 2008 (remember that ?) and moving it between that and 0% is going to represent chicken feed anyway, but will be totally irrelevant if we're all under onerous restrictions.

 

[nlogax]

To be honest, the 0.1% interest rate is a hangover from the financial crisis of 2008 (remember that ?) and moving it between that and 0% is going to represent chicken feed anyway, but will be totally irrelevant if we're all under onerous restrictions.

I should have been a bit clearer - the 0% would have been a short term stepping stone to negative rates. I wonder if there'll be a need for them if this anticipated rebound is now on the horizon as vaccination numbers increase.

(2008 feels like several lifetimes ago)

 

[TheBeard]

The Rebound will be slight without some serious wealth redistribution.
3 million self employed with no help- bankrupt, or struggling
x Millions Self employed with 70% help- struggling
9 million furloughed on 70%- struggling
Newly unemployed- not likely
Rich old folk unbothered economically, too old and sensible to go out en masse until they see what happens
There will be no foreign holidays, save for rich influencers and MPs, and so many more j ob losses
The UK holiday will boom despite this, everyone needs a break good, support your country
But expensive shopping? Well the High Street has already gone, so don't give your money to Walmart and Amazon, shop local if you want to help.

 

[yorksrob]

The Rebound will be slight without some serious wealth redistribution.
3 million self employed with no help- bankrupt, or struggling
x Millions Self employed with 70% help- struggling
9 million furloughed on 70%- struggling
Newly unemployed- not likely
Rich old folk unbothered economically, too old and sensible to go out en masse until they see what happens
There will be no foreign holidays, save for rich influencers and MPs, and so many more j ob losses
The UK holiday will boom despite this, everyone needs a break good, support your country
But expensive shopping? Well the High Street has already gone, so don't give your money to Walmart and Amazon, shop local if you want to help.

Support the hospitality sector (when finally allowed). This seems to be the most effective way of spending money to the benefit of the British economy.

 

[MikeWM]

As I said many months ago - and the problem is more acute now - part of the issue affecting economic recovery is going to be as simple as the fact people have got out of habits and may well choose to not go back to them. Even very simple things like whether you make your own sandwiches for lunch or go to the sandwich shop - they all mount up.

 

[ChrisC]

However I do emphasise "optimistic", given it depends a lot on when the Government ease restrictions, which is not in the Bank's control, and aside from the Covid restrictions, with increasing unemployment and in particular fear of unemployment, consumer spending won't surge up like they think it will if restrictions are not eased quickly and job creation isn't quick.

I do think our heavy reliance on consumerism is a longstanding economic issue we have, but that's another story.

I think it’s very difficult to predict and very dependent upon how long term the high unemployment levels remain and as you say the also fear of unemployment.

There could be a big short term surge in spending once everything opens up and people feel confident to return to normality. Those people who have been able to continue to work and remain on full pay throughout this past year plus those who are retired and living on pensions may have lots of surplus money to spend. I have spent very little during the past year compared to a normal year.

 

[takno]

As I said many months ago - and the problem is more acute now - part of the issue affecting economic recovery is going to be as simple as the fact people have got out of habits and may well choose to not go back to them. Even very simple things like whether you make your own sandwiches for lunch or go to the sandwich shop - they all mount up.

To be fair I would gladly never eat another sandwich I've put together myself again. I'm absolutely gagging to form new spendier lunch habits

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair I would gladly never eat another sandwich I've put together myself again. I'm absolutely gagging to form new spendier lunch habits

Yes, likewise I'm sick of my own cooking.

 

[kristiang85]

Yes, likewise I'm sick of my own cooking.

Yep, I really miss restaurants. Just a day or so a week of being able to eat whilst fully relaxing without the faff of shopping/cooking/washing up would be lovely. And better cooking of course (I'm not terrible, but I don't exactly have a wide repertoire).

 

[yorksrob]

Yep, I really miss restaurants. Just a day or so a week of being able to eat whilst fully relaxing without the faff of shopping/cooking/washing up would be lovely. And better cooking of course (I'm not terrible, but I don't exactly have a wide repertoire).

Yes, even a nice pub lunch !

 

[Richard Scott]

Yes, even a nice pub lunch !

Think I'll go to the chip shop this week. This is how exciting life has become.

 

[yorksrob]

Think I'll go to the chip shop this week. This is how exciting life has become.

Yes, I must admit, I do go to the chippy every now and again !

 

[kristiang85]

Think I'll go to the chip shop this week. This is how exciting life has become.

It has genuinely got to the point where we are splitting chores between Saturday and Sunday so there's something "interesting" to do both days.

As someone who was always infamous for having a full diary every weekend for weeks ahead, it has been painful at times.

 

[nlogax]

Reached the point here where I dread getting time off work (five of them enforced between now and March otherwise I lose 'em). There's just..nothing to do. I like going for walks but there's only so much walking anyone wants to do.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed. I have five days to take off before the end of March. Happy to do outdoor walks, but essential travel only needs to go.

 

[MikeWM]

Ok, so maybe the sandwich industry will survive after all

Indeed. I have five days to take off before the end of March. Happy to do outdoor walks, but essential travel only needs to go.

I have 11 days to take somehow by the end of March :-/ Normally I'd have a couple of rail rover-premier inn style holidays in March, but last years had to be aborted two days in due to the first lockdown, and I doubt things will be sufficiently open to do much this year either.

 

[Kite159]

Likewise I've got 4 days to take before the end of March. Will probably just be taken as long weekends to get rid of them (rather than just losing them).

Only so much walking someone can do when the ground in places is muddy (which does spoil the enjoyment when you have to focus on not slipping over)

 

[MikeWM]

Likewise I've got 4 days to take before the end of March. Will probably just be taken as long weekends to get rid of them (rather than just losing them).

That's what I did last spring when I had to use up some 'carry-over' holiday. I didn't do a 5-day week for over 2 months

Only so much walking someone can do when the ground in places is muddy (which does spoil the enjoyment when you have to focus on not slipping over)

Yes; I took Monday off this week and had a rather good 12-mile walk, but there are only so many places to go within walking distance of Ely, and trying to stick to roads cuts that down even further.

 

[greyman42]

Indeed. I have five days to take off before the end of March. Happy to do outdoor walks, but essential travel only needs to go.

Any sort of re-opening the economy will require essential travel to go.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I'm lucky I can carry over 12 days off tis year and sell a further 13 back that I had bought. Otherwise I'd have no idea what to do with them. I'm even getting bored of the walks now, especially in the rain today.

 

[brad465]

915 deaths reported today, the first time it's under 1000 on a weekday since the peak at least, and the last 7 days have seen a 16.6% reduction, so very much on the way to a better picture that will put pressure on easements in the roadmap.

 

[VauxhallandI]

915 deaths reported today, the first time it's under 1000 on a weekday since the peak at least, and the last 7 days have seen a 16.6% reduction, so very much on the way to a better picture that will put pressure on easements in the roadmap.

Excellent news, anyone got the graphs please

Can we assume the number of people that actually died today is much lower? Before we apply the of/with issue.

 

[brad465]

Excellent news, anyone got the graphs please

Can we assume the number of people that actually died today is much lower? Before we apply the of/with issue.

The last day you can hover over is the 28th, which was 1,001 reported on that day, but there are two blue bars after lower than that, before 4 grey bars incomplete. Also while we saw some days which announced figures over 1,500, the maximum that actually died with Covid on a given day never got higher than 1,335, with the 7 day average no higher than 1,266.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Feb 2021 ==

Exactly. We know this government has form in leaking news to the media to either gauge reaction or to prepare the public, and this will be no different. The cabinet cheered on by SAGE & Co have been constantly sweeping the effects of lockdowns under the carpet, but it has now reached the point where the bulge is visible to the naked eye. And so Sunak is now moving the carpet to just what crap is there and how to deal with it.

Of course there may be another side to the story, with BoJo's policies cracking & his advisors now coming under scrutiny, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the first public move to shove Boris off the throne. So if the budget next month, as I expect it to be, is full of job creation, business grants / loans & commitments to reform taxation both centrally & locally, then expect a full on move from Sunak in April or May when (hopefully) restrictions are being dropped.

Forgive me for maybe not understanding the bold text properly, but do you mean Sunak would present a budget that looks popular to help him get into no.10? Presumably this would also need to be a budget that tells enough backbenchers to give Johnson the boot, if restrictions are not being eased quick enough for the budget to be implemented to full effect.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The last day you can hover over is the 28th, which was 1,001 reported on that day, but there are two blue bars after lower than that, before 4 grey bars incomplete. Also while we saw some days which announced figures over 1,500, the maximum that actually died with Covid on a given day never got higher than 1,335, with the 7 day average no higher than 1,266.

There is a fair lag on deaths being registered due to delays from autopsies or just getting an appointment with a registrar to get death recorded but the level of change on historic dates has dropped off so definitely over this peak. Also deaths is a lagging indicator so you would expect to be showing decline after drop off in cases and hospitalisations over last few weeks. Specifically hospital admissions are down 25% over the last week and this is the best forward indicator although one govt don't like to use.

 

[VauxhallandI]

How long can these hospitals be at breaking point for? I’d like definitions to be punk around all these phrases to be honest.

 

[Crossover]

To be fair I would gladly never eat another sandwich I've put together myself again. I'm absolutely gagging to form new spendier lunch habits

Since our canteen shut at work at the start of the first lockdown, I have been having to sort my own lunch to take to work. I do my own sandwich some days but mix it up with a sandwich bought from a supermarket on the odd day (and we now have a sandwich vending machine at the office so that breaks it up a bit more, which is nice)

 

[rumoto]

And now we have the last example of trying to move the goalposts: Jeremy Hunt has said that the lockdown should continue until the number of cases falls below 1,000 cases per day; he thinks that the Government should aim to suppress Covid sufficiently to enable a South Korea-style approach of intensive contact tracing.