HS2 - What will happen next

[The Ham]

Ignoring construction, which is a one off hit, improvements which ease traffic flow could be argued to be green, having vehicles stationary or close to it because of congestion is the worst possible scenario, and creating shorter routes (lower Thames Crossing) also has benefits. Given current fuel prices I cannot see there being a big increase in discretionary journeys from these improvements.


In areas with a widespread public transport system (London, and to a lessar extent Manchester, Liverpool, Birmingham and maybe a few others) not running a car is a possibility, however for vast areas of the country not having a car whilst survivable if you have no choice isn't something the majority of people in these areas would decide to do. Public transports lack of integration, unreliability, no early and late services and costs, particularly for say a family with 2 children means that a car is almost essential.

Building more roads only ever created more traffic, now whilst it does ease congestion at that point, it almost certainly makes congestion worst elsewhere.

Where did I say that people would not use cars at all?

I said that there could start to be a nice away from cars.

As a family with kids which lives in a rural settlement (population of about 9,000) we have just one car and try and user it as little as possible. Could we do without it, almost certainly not. Would it be useful if we had two cars, yes, however the cost of doing so wouldn't be good value (never has been).

The point being that these current high prices may just trip the balance for a few now people to consider using their car a little less and/or reducing the number of cars in their household.

 

[Gareth]

Everything's about politics, Balders.

 

[gaillark]

Everything's about politics, Balders.

Indeed.
HS2 will be cut back further/descoped as it will become unaffordable with costs rising and delays. HM Treasury will want additional 'savings'.

 

[deltic]

It doesn't matter what this Tory says and that Tory does. Here today, gone tomorrow. The plans are drawn up by civil servants and HS2 existed before Ozzy & Tezza and will outlast Bojo and whoever else.

HS2 is a political project with very little civil service input. It lives and dies due to political decisions.

 

[JonathanH]

HS2 will be cut back further/descoped as it will become unaffordable with costs rising and delays. HM Treasury will want additional 'savings'.

That will depend on the rate of inflation for construction. The much vaunted £96 billion will buy less railway if inflation runs away and that would be where the risk of cut backs might arise.

 

[Gareth]

HS2 is a political project with very little civil service input. It lives and dies due to political decisions.

This is the good old "Lord Adonis had a dream and painted his dream" belief. Hardly anything in this country has "little civil service input" and certainly not something as large and expensive as HS2. And as critical as I can be of the civil service, nor should it be.

 

[Mikey C]

Not sure I agree with that. Under George Osborne with his Northern Powerhouse yes but Theresa May made clear her dislike of his cities focus approach and the present levelling up focus is mainly on smaller towns and the flavour of the month is Teeside. There is no political capital in serving Manchester - the Tory voters are served by Crewe and by serving Manchester all the other northern cities will feel aggrieved. The expensive tunnel into Manchester was agreed because Salford rejected the idea of a station there because what was best for the whole of Greater Manchester was a station at Piccadilly.

Plenty of Conservative seats in the East Midlands will benefit from HS2 East, indeed more than in the Manchester area probably...

 

[The Ham]

Indeed.
HS2 will be cut back further/descoped as it will become unaffordable with costs rising and delays. HM Treasury will want additional 'savings'.

Maybe, however the opposite may also happen.

If the building industry is hit hard (as it often is during a recession) then it is possible for the construction industry inflation to go negative (for example less demand for building materials will reduce in cost).

As it should be remembered that the contribution industry inflation is a very different beast to household inflation.

It should also be noted that sometimes governments like big infrastructure projects as paying the construction industry to build something is better than paying those workers benefits. Not least as the economy then rebounds faster with the economic benefits of the infrastructure.

 

[deltic]

This is the good old "Lord Adonis had a dream and painted his dream" belief. Hardly anything in this country has "little civil service input" and certainly not something as large and expensive as HS2. And as critical as I can be of the civil service, nor should it be.

HS2 Ltd is the organisation which planned and has taken forward HS2 - while Alison Munro was the civil servant who was the original Chief Executive, the scheme was mainly driven by Andrew McNaughton who was ex Network Rail. There were a few civil servants undertaking the business case work for the scheme but virtually everyone else was not and DfT was fairly hands off throughout the whole project. It was Jim Steer that had the dream and persuaded Lord Adonis to take it forward. The DfT saw no rationale for the scheme.

 

[Sonik]

HS2 Ltd is the organisation which planned and has taken forward HS2 - while Alison Munro was the civil servant who was the original Chief Executive, the scheme was mainly driven by Andrew McNaughton who was ex Network Rail. There were a few civil servants undertaking the business case work for the scheme but virtually everyone else was not and DfT was fairly hands off throughout the whole project. It was Jim Steer that had the dream and persuaded Lord Adonis to take it forward. The DfT saw no rationale for the scheme.

I think you are right in that assessment, AIUI HS2 Ltd was specifically set up to be arms length from the government, so they could get on with the job without (too much) interference. Essentially the government didn't believe that the public sector was capable of managing a project of this scale.

There is a certain amount of political ideology in that approach but you only have to look at California's struggling (in house) HSR project to see it was the right decision.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately be careful about how much you use the argument that building more roads just leads to more congestion.

The same argument also applies to rail infrastructure.

I think you are right in that assessment, AIUI HS2 Ltd was specifically set up to be arms length from the government, so they could get on with the job without (too much) interference. Essentially the government didn't believe that the public sector was capable of managing a project of this scale.

Or more likely so HS2 Ltd could be used a scape goat for any unpopular choices the projected required.

There is a certain amount of political ideology in that approach but you only have to look at California's struggling (in house) HSR project to see it was the right decision.

Is HS2 really doing that much better than CAHSR?
A small portion of the planned scheme used to gain political support is likely to be built in the near future, is years late and already enormously overbudget......

 

[The Ham]

The same argument also applies to rail infrastructure.

Indeed, however the use emissions from rail are smaller than other travel options for the journeys likely to be made by rail.

Also rail tends to mean that there'll be more other sustainable travel options (if you use rail you're more likely to walk, cycle or use other public transport).

 

[Purple Orange]

It has though, the original tunnel near Bromford has been extended right out to Water Orton now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jun 2022 ==


The spur to Brum is phase 1 and would need a complete redesign to take it out. No 2a and it ends at Handsacre, no redesign. No 2b, it ends at Basford Hall as its planned to, no redesign. The only white elephants would be the junction for the East Mids as that is intertwined with the Birmingham spur in phase 1 and the stub for the Crewe tunnel.

Curzon Street would be a huge white elephant. A massive station with just 3 tph.

 

[6Gman]

I think this is the presentation you mean. I haven’t watched it through so won’t attempt a summary:

I have an instinctive disinclination to take seriously anything entitled "All Change at Crewe" though I might make an exception for this one!

 

[The Planner]

Curzon Street would be a huge white elephant. A massive station with just 3 tph.

So why cant trains go north via Handsacre?

 

[Purple Orange]

So why cant trains go north via Handsacre?

What benefit would there be? There are still planned to be XC services running on the WCML from Manchester to Birmingham then onwards and there are 2 tph at most. May as well run them to New Street then on to Bristol and/or Reading.

 

[stuu]

Is HS2 really doing that much better than CAHSR?
A small portion of the planned scheme used to gain political support is likely to be built in the near future, is years late and already enormously overbudget......

HS2 isn't connecting Leamington to Aylesbury with buses for ongoing connections, in that regard HS2 is far more successful than CAHSR

 

[zwk500]

Ultimately be careful about how much you use the argument that building more roads just leads to more congestion.

The same argument also applies to rail infrastructure.

Trains are fundamentally different to road vehicles in that they run to timed paths and require permission to move anywhere. Rail planners are in the fortunate position of having an element of control over how many vehicles will run on their new lines, and being able to structure traffic to make best use of the capacity. Road planners aren't so lucky. Imagine the reaction to saying only Aston Martins and Ferraris could use a new motorway. Although the idea of being able to assign cars to specific lanes on the M25 has some merit...

 

[Irascible]

The result of next week's Tiverton by-election might have an impact on the Stonehenge tunnel. If the Tories lose there then it will definitely happen, lots of Tory seats along the A303

Well over 20,000 majority at the moment, and local tory party *members* are talking about voting Lib-Dem. I'm not sure if there's going to be any decisions on anything with the upcoming in-fighting.

 

[HSTEd]

HS2 isn't connecting Leamington to Aylesbury with buses for ongoing connections, in that regard HS2 is far more successful than CAHSR

CAHSR has also got a major commuter route electrified using its funding.

 

[Sonik]

Is HS2 really doing that much better than CAHSR?
A small portion of the planned scheme used to gain political support is likely to be built in the near future, is years late and already enormously overbudget......

I'm not really sure what you mean.

HS2 is over budget but it's pretty sure it will get built, as far as Manchester at least.

CAHSR isn't even fully funded.

 

[stuu]

CAHSR has also got a major commuter route electrified using its funding.

CAHSR doesn't have any revenue other than taxpayers/taxpayer-backed bonds. So really what happened is one lot of state money moved from one pile to another. There is absolutely no comparison with CAHSR as HS2 will definitely serve the largest and second/third largest cities in the country. CAHSR will serve Fresno and Bakersfield unless more funding is forthcoming

 

[Purple Orange]

I'm not really sure what you mean.

HS2 is over budget but it's pretty sure it will get built, as far as Manchester at least.

CAHSR isn't even fully funded.

Are you certain about that? A quick look at the latest 6-monthly report from March has a statement that says “HS2 remains within budget”.

HS2 6-monthly report to Parliament: March 2022

Review of High Speed Two (HS2) including programme update, local community impact and engagement, environment, benefits and programme governance.

www.gov.uk

 

[Sonik]

Are you certain about that? A quick look at the latest 6-monthly report from March has a statement that says “HS2 remains within budget”.

OK, strictly speaking.

But costs have increased massively over the original costing, which is what I meant.

It's been claimed by some that HS2 Ltd deliberately understated costs to get political approval, which would be difficult to retract once committed. I know that's very cynical but it could be argued that they therefore did a better job securing funding vs CAHSR.

 

[Bald Rick]

It's been claimed by some that HS2 Ltd deliberately understated costs to get political approval, which would be difficult to retract once committed.

if it did, it wouldn’t have been the first to do so.

jubilee line
Borders (in spades, and with political backing!)
Ebbw Vale
Leven
every amateur reopening proposal

etc

 

[The Ham]

if it did, it wouldn’t have been the first to do so.

jubilee line
Borders (in spades, and with political backing!)
Ebbw Vale
Leven
every amateur reopening proposal

etc

Is also suggest that it's not only limited to rail schemes, road schemes also have had the same issues.

Anyway, even if the costs were optimistic, that was factored in before any vote on it by the (IIRC) 60% added to the costs for contingencies.

Other factors which have come into play in the changing costs are the changes to the infrastructure (such as more tunnels) or adding the rolling stock to the cost of the scheme.

There other thing to note is that construction inflation isn't the same rate as general inflation (rarely is it ever even close) and so costs to build things often appear to rise faster than you'd expect.

 

[Snapper]

New blog. The #hs2 Phase 2B Hybrid Bill will pass 2nd reading in Parliament tomorrow. Here's what to expect. https://paulbigland.blog/2022/06/19/more-hs2-progress-in-parliament/

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 Jun 2022 ==

The HS2 Phase 2B Hybrid bill (Crewe - Manchester) flew through Parliament tonight...https://paulbigland.blog/2022/06/20/the-hs2-phase-2b-hybrid-bill-crewe-manchester-passes-2nd-reading/

 

[CdBrux]

Everything's about politics, Balders.

especially to those who want to make everything about politics and create grievances

 

[Gareth]

Bit unfair on Balders that.

A bit strange to pick up on an 8 days old post though. You must really be cross with him about something.

 

[CdBrux]

Bit unfair on Balders that.

A bit strange to pick up on an 8 days old post though. You must really be cross with him about something.

I don't think I was disagreeing with Baldrick when catching up on some posts after having been on holidays. I'm not cross with him about anything, indeed I find his posts consistently informative and full of common sense and often a welcome infusion of facts into the discussion!