HS2 - What will happen next

[mike57]

Yet another sound bite from a politician this morning 'stop HS2' in response to the current financial woes.

My view is that the economic outlook for the country is as bleak as at anytime since the 1970s. Some hard choices will have to be made, I dont see any government abandoning the works started but the purse strings will have to be tightened, and I dont think the political 'colour' of the government of the day is going to change the outlook as its a result of situations beyond government control.

My own view is that anything not started 'on the ground' will end up being abandoned or cut back to the minimum.

Realistically where could money be saved and still deliver something. 250mph running could be one area, go for 'standard' 186mph rolling stock.

There is also the issue of cost over-runs, based on recent history its not going to be delivered for budgeted cost.

So how can this be managed as if it is allowed to go out of control the clamour to abandon everything might just get too loud to ignore.

 

[MattRat]

If nothing more is done apart from phase 1 and 2a that currently has the green light, there will be bottlenecks that will ultimately cripple HS2.

If they have any hope to make their money back, then they actually have to spend more to make it viable, as weird as that sounds.

 

[matacaster]

Just complete birmingham to London and abandon the rest?

 

[bib]

I reckon that like Crossrail it'll get finished, at least as far as Manchester, the political pressure to reach the North would be too much. More likely that other projects in the IRP like the Nottingham stub etc would get cancelled / delayed / descoped if money became tight. Or they could just cut the NR enhancements budget. If they were to try and save serious money on HS2 I imagine it'll be easier on Phase 2b since detailed design hasn't been completed, but I'm under the impression that most of the cost is just building a brand new railway, and that descoping it might not save much.

 

[swt_passenger]

I reckon that like Crossrail it'll get finished, at least as far as Manchester, the political pressure to reach the North would be too much. More likely that other projects in the IRP like the Nottingham stub etc would get cancelled / delayed / descoped if money became tight. Or they could just cut the NR enhancements budget. If they were to try and save serious money on HS2 I imagine it'll be easier on Phase 2b since detailed design hasn't been completed, but I'm under the impression that most of the cost is just building a brand new railway, and that descoping it might not save much.

I think the different speeds question raised earlier has been explained before as having a fairly minimal effect on overall costs. As they’re building a new high speed alignment and have already defined the exact route, downgrading the route for slightly lower speeds might even add new costs.

 

[Bald Rick]

Work is already underway for Phase 2a. Phase 2b is a certainty, (subject to Parliamentary process).

 

[matacaster]

Work is already underway for Phase 2a. Phase 2b is a certainty, (subject to Parliamentary process).

So was TSR2.

 

[Bald Rick]

So was TSR2.

you’ll be pleased to know that I know what you mean! Even if most others on the forum don’t.

 

[cle]

I see this ending at Crewe and Manchester sadly - for now. And it knocks off a decent chunk for the same frequencies north - which then free up others south, as intended now.

Probably a fourth London-Manchester train and another Manc from Brum to get more out of 2b, especially if NPR doesn't go ahead in the same way. The Manchester route will have spare capacity. Possibly even other services.

But remember the TGV ended in Lyon and so forth, for years. This was quite a big bang, there can still be an incremental approach in future - especially as benefits politics/elections.

 

[Arkeeos]

I'm not stressing too much because the current government isn't going to last much longer, and I feel confident that any change in governance will see the project reinstated in full.

 

[HSTEd]

I see this ending at Crewe and Manchester sadly - for now. And it knocks off a decent chunk for the same frequencies north - which then free up others south, as intended now.

Probably a fourth London-Manchester train and another Manc from Brum to get more out of 2b, especially if NPR doesn't go ahead in the same way. The Manchester route will have spare capacity. Possibly even other services.

But remember the TGV ended in Lyon and so forth, for years. This was quite a big bang, there can still be an incremental approach in future - especially as benefits politics/elections.

If it ends at Manchester I think it is likely they will fill the line with Euston-Manchester trains and flood the market with cheap tickets. In that scenario it probably benefits the railway, and thus the government, as a whole if everyone trying to take a train from the North changes in Manchester if they possibly can.

 

[Purple Orange]

If it ends at Manchester I think it is likely they will fill the line with Euston-Manchester trains and flood the market with cheap tickets. In that scenario it probably benefits the railway, and thus the government, as a whole if everyone trying to take a train from the North changes in Manchester if they possibly can.

Yes I can see this a very plausible scenario. I’d go further and say that we will eventually see a 4 tph triangle from Manchester to Birmingham; Birmingham to London and London to Manchester. The exceptions being that London will also have HS2 classic compatible services to Liverpool, Scotland and Macclesfield and Birmingham will also have a Scotland service.

There is a further question of what can the Crewe hub facilitate as a result of the Northern and southern link on to HS2? There could be some services from Manchester start on HS2, come off at Crewe on to the WCML and continue south from there.

 

[HSTEd]

There is a further question of what can the Crewe hub facilitate as a result of the Northern and southern link on to HS2? There could be some services from Manchester start on HS2, come off at Crewe on to the WCML and continue south from there.

If a north facing connection onto HS2 is included at Crewe that would allow the TfW trains between Manchester Airport and Wales to be removed from Castlefield without surrendering the Airport stop, although it would require a high performance electro-diesel.

 

[Starmill]

If it ends at Manchester I think it is likely they will fill the line with Euston-Manchester trains and flood the market with cheap tickets. In that scenario it probably benefits the railway, and thus the government, as a whole if everyone trying to take a train from the North changes in Manchester if they possibly can.

The station as proposed doesn't have enough capacity for that.

In any case, because of the likely need to add new Nottingham services there will only be one vacant path, plus the one "reserved for growth". These may in fact not be vacant anyway given the descoping of Euston.

 

[The Planner]

If a north facing connection onto HS2 is included at Crewe that would allow the TfW trains between Manchester Airport and Wales to be removed from Castlefield without surrendering the Airport stop, although it would require a high performance electro-diesel.

Its part of 2b.

 

[Purple Orange]

The station as proposed doesn't have enough capacity for that.

In any case, because of the likely need to add new Nottingham services there will only be one vacant path, plus the one "reserved for growth". These may in fact not be vacant anyway given the descoping of Euston.

There won’t be a Nottingham service from Manchester. In any case, there are 6 platforms and could easily be 12 tph heading south through the HS2 tunnel.

 

[Starmill]

There won’t be a Nottingham service from Manchester. In any case, there are 6 platforms and could easily be 12 tph heading south through the HS2 tunnel.

It's a London to Nottingham service which is a recent addition.

 

[Irascible]

you’ll be pleased to know that I know what you mean! Even if most others on the forum don’t.

My father worked on it! one would hope HS2 has significantly less committees...

 

[Purple Orange]

It's a London to Nottingham service which is a recent addition.

Only if there is an eastern branch. The premise of the earlier question was if HS2 is just London to Birmingham and Manchester. It means there would be 7 available paths in to Euston to play with.

 

[D365]

Just complete birmingham to London and abandon the rest?

And that would leave us... where?

 

[Starmill]

Only if there is an eastern branch. The premise of the earlier question was if HS2 is just London to Birmingham and Manchester. It means there would be 7 available paths in to Euston to play with.

I don't think anyone seriously believes that there won't be any service whatsoever for the East Midlands.

 

[HST43257]

What I hope is different to what I expect to happen

What I hope (in this order chronologically):
- IRP stuff done relatively quickly with no cost increase
- Completion of pre-IRP HS2 Phase 2b and a couple of small bits added to NPR to release capacity around Leeds
- Finding a practical (unfortunately not easy probably) route to Scotland at relatively low cost

What I expect:
- A very long time taken to carry out the IRP, or perhaps less, with even higher cost

 

[Purple Orange]

I don't think anyone seriously believes that there won't be any service whatsoever for the East Midlands.

On what grounds is there is to really believe that we will see a hybrid bill appear for HS2 East or NPR? The evidence we have seen from this government has been to cancel elements of HS2.

 

[mike57]

When I started this thread, my own thought was that in the medium term we will get London Birmingham Manchester and nothing else, I think the economic situation will mean that everything else will be 'later'. Maybe not cancelled but postponed for so long that to all intents and purposes it might as well have been.

The problem with long term postponement is that when the economic conditions do finally improve enough to allow further development other changes may have taken place which then undermine the original case.

 

[stuu]

What I find absolutely bizarre about the cancellation of the eastern leg is that it wasn't planned to start construction for at least a decade anyway. Why not just say it is being phased differently and will be built as and when funds allow? France has had a plan for a nationwide high speed network for 40 years which they are slowly building, so it's hardly unusual.

None of the people in power now will be the ones making the decisions in 10+ years so I don't understand why they took the political hit of cancelling it now.

 

[Mikw]

We'll all be dead by the time it opens

 

[The Planner]

We'll all be dead by the time it opens

Speak for yourself!

 

[HSTEd]

What I find absolutely bizarre about the cancellation of the eastern leg is that it wasn't planned to start construction for at least a decade anyway. Why not just say it is being phased differently and will be built as and when funds allow? France has had a plan for a nationwide high speed network for 40 years which they are slowly building, so it's hardly unusual.

None of the people in power now will be the ones making the decisions in 10+ years so I don't understand why they took the political hit of cancelling it now.

Because everyone knows that when a British politician says anything like that, it means it has been cancelled.
It's not credible to point to a long term plan because long term plans always get dumped a couple of years later in favour of some new short termist delusions.

I can't think of a single long term plan actually being followed through on since Maggie took power.
Claiming a long term plan exists will cause massive problems when they inevitably jettison it later, without the political benefit of appeasing those who oppose it now.

 

[JonathanH]

What I find absolutely bizarre about the cancellation of the eastern leg is that it wasn't planned to start construction for at least a decade anyway. Why not just say it is being phased differently and will be built as and when funds allow?

Planning blight I would imagine. If the route is announced and safeguarded the planning blight continues until it is cancelled or built. As HSTEd has just written, by cancelling it now there is a political benefit of keeping the people happy who don't want the building work to happen.

 

[matacaster]

And that would leave us... where?

Birmingham or London?

I'm afraid I've always thought that politics got in the way from the start.
Govt wanted a totemic infrastructure plan which would appease commuters on southern wcml, but also needed something to sell it to the northern half of the country. So phase 1 was a goer and as everybody knows grandiose plans and spending, particularly at the London end of phase 1 have meant that work north of Birmingham will be poverty spec or cancelled.
Just because there are lots of commuters wanting to go to London at 08.00 is not justification to spend a fortune... They and their employers could agree to start later in the day or work from home (as proven by covid). Indeed freight capacity on wcml could have taken place if commuter services on wcml had been reduced and still can.