HS2 - What will happen next

[Mikey C]

There's zero chance this government would cancel the eastern leg (as exists in the current plans) as the Tories would be decimated across the East Midlands

 

[snowball]

Planning blight I would imagine. If the route is announced and safeguarded the planning blight continues until it is cancelled or built. As HSTEd has just written, by cancelling it now there is a political benefit of keeping the people happy who don't want the building work to happen.

But the north-eastern arm to Leeds (probably also Church Fenton?) and the Golborne link are both continuing to be safeguarded until something is decided to replace them. Will probably be for many years, especially the NE arm.

 

[Wynd]

Its a disappointing view to hold, but I dont think its ever going beyond Birmingham, and worse still, i genuinely think that was the plan all along.

Given the advancing headwinds, that appears to be an inevitability.

 

[snowball]

Its a disappointing view to hold, but I dont think its ever going beyond Birmingham, and worse still, i genuinely think that was the plan all along.

Given the advancing headwinds, that appears to be an inevitability.

It's already got beyond Birmingham. It's fully under construction to Handsacre, 20 miles north of Birmingham. The Act to take it to Crewe was passed in Feb 2021 and advance works are in progress.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Its a disappointing view to hold, but I dont think its ever going beyond Birmingham, and worse still, i genuinely think that was the plan all along.

Given the advancing headwinds, that appears to be an inevitability.

I must admit I have thought this. Phase 1 only - I'd say I expected it to be canned entirely, but too much Phase 1 work has already been done.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jun 2022 ==

It's already got beyond Birmingham. It's fully under construction to Handsacre, 20 miles north of Birmingham.

Is that the Trent Valley connection for Phase 1 that allows full relief of the south WCML? If it literally only went to Birmingham it would only remove 1tph from the WCML. (2tph classic line fasts are to be retained)

 

[snowball]

Is that the Trent Valley connection for Phase 1 that allows full relief of the south WCML?

Yes, between Lichfield and Rugeley.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes, between Lichfield and Rugeley.

Thanks. So I wouldn't be surprised if Phase 1 was built in full including that (so as to allow the WCML fast service to reduce from 9tph to 4tph*) but never went further. That gets you the south WCML relief which is the most important part, though not a massively quicker run to Manchester or beyond.

* From 3 Manc, 3 Brum, 1 Scotland, 1 Liverpool, 1 North Wales to 2 Brum, 1 Manc, 1 North Wales.

 

[snowball]

If they're about to drop phase 2a, why have they just reaffirmed their intention to introduce a Bill for phase 2b?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they're about to drop phase 2a, why have they just reaffirmed their intention to introduce a Bill for phase 2b?

Q: How do you know Boris Johnson is lying?
A: Because his mouth is moving.

I believe things when I see them actually happen at the moment.

 

[matacaster]

Its a disappointing view to hold, but I dont think its ever going beyond Birmingham, and worse still, i genuinely think that was the plan all along.

Given the advancing headwinds, that appears to be an inevitability.

I agree.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Jun 2022 ==

If they're about to drop phase 2a, why have they just reaffirmed their intention to introduce a Bill for phase 2b?

That's only a stated intention. It might not happen... however it might impress electorate in the meantime. A complex bill taking up lots of parliamentary time might actually be a godsend if it distracts from other issues. Scrapping it and downsizing other projects will be easy. All they have to do is do a full economic review in the light of covid, wfh, and Ukraine on nations finances and bingo!

 

[Purple Orange]

Q: How do you know Boris Johnson is lying?
A: Because his mouth is moving.

I believe things when I see them actually happen at the moment.

This won’t be Johnson’s decision to make soon enough.

 

[Purple Orange]

Has work actually started on Curzon Street station? If so, and phase 2b was cancelled in full, can anyone explain what the benefit of Curzon Street will actually be anymore? It’ll just be the station you go to if you want a train to London, but nothing connecting it there. At least with a 9 tph timetable, the fact that it served the majority of the country somewhat mitigates its poor connectivity within Birmingham.

 

[Bald Rick]

particularly at the London end of phase 1 have meant that work north of Birmingham will be poverty spec or cancelled.

work north of Birmigham is under consrruction

Its a disappointing view to hold, but I dont think its ever going beyond Birmingham, and worse still, i genuinely think that was the plan all along.

Given the advancing headwinds, that appears to be an inevitability.

work north of Birmingham is under construction.

Has work actually started on Curzon Street station? If so, and phase 2b was cancelled in full, can anyone explain what the benefit of Curzon Street will actually be anymore? It’ll just be the station you go to if you want a train to London, but nothing connecting it there. At least with a 9 tph timetable, the fact that it served the majority of the country somewhat mitigates its poor connectivity within Birmingham.

Yes, extensively.

trains will use it to head to the north, even if Ph2 to Crewe / Manchester was cancelled (which it won’t be).

 

[The Planner]

Cancel phase 2a and you end up with a massively diminshed case for Crewe renodelling. Would probably revert to like for like.

 

[ABB125]

Cancel phase 2a and you end up with a massively diminshed case for Crewe renodelling. Would probably revert to like for like.

Don't give the Treasury ideas...

 

[Halifaxlad]

Has work actually started on Curzon Street station? If so, and phase 2b was cancelled in full, can anyone explain what the benefit of Curzon Street will actually be anymore?

The biggest benefit of Curzon St is that it enables 400m long services!

 

[Purple Orange]

The biggest benefit of Curzon St is that it enables 400m long services!

So it would just serve 3 tph to London with nothing else. What a waste that would be. I maintain, that Birmingham needs phase 2b to be completed.

 

[HSTEd]

So it would just serve 3 tph to London with nothing else. What a waste that would be. I maintain, that Birmingham needs phase 2b to be completed.

If Phase 2a is completed you could also put Manchester-bound crowdbuster trains into it.
Extend the Crewe-Manchester stopping service to Birmingham over HS2.

 

[Purple Orange]

If Phase 2a is completed you could also put Manchester-bound crowdbuster trains into it.
Extend the Crewe-Manchester stopping service to Birmingham over HS2.

You can’t because there is no capacity to run Birmingham-Manchester services from Crewe to Manchester via Wilmslow.

 

[HSTEd]

You can’t because there is no capacity to run Birmingham-Manchester services from Crewe to Manchester via Wilmslow.

Isn't there the Crewe-Manchester via Styal stopping service that you could extend to Birmingham?

Even with the slow slog through south manchester it is likely to be competitive with the classic service.

 

[The Planner]

You can’t because there is no capacity to run Birmingham-Manchester services from Crewe to Manchester via Wilmslow.

If people were determined to find a way of running Birmingham Manchester via HS2, something would get moved to allow it between Crewe and Wilmslow.

 

[Purple Orange]

Isn't there the Crewe-Manchester via Styal stopping service that you could extend to Birmingham?

Even with the slow slog through south manchester it is likely to be competitive with the classic service.

So the plan would be to mix a stopping service with HS2, or remove the stopping serve entirely? That particular stopping service takes roughly 75 minutes to get to Crewe from Piccadilly (and it originates from Liverpool), using a 3-car 323! The classic service takes 90 minutes Manchester to Birmingham.

If people were determined to find a way of running Birmingham Manchester via HS2, something would get moved to allow it between Crewe and Wilmslow.

What service would you take out? Who loses?

 

[The Planner]

What service would you take out? Who loses?

No idea, but someone would.

 

[HSTEd]

So the plan would be to mix a stopping service with HS2, or remove the stopping serve entirely? That particular stopping service takes roughly 75 minutes to get to Crewe from Piccadilly (and it originates from Liverpool), using a 3-car 323! The classic service takes 90 minutes Manchester to Birmingham.

Like 395 services on southeastern, it would run as a stopping service as far as crewe, then run fast to Birmingham.

Also I got the service mixed up - but there is also a Manchester-Crewe stopping service via Stockport that currently terminates at Crewe and takes ~50 minutes that can be extended to Birmingham.

Also doesn't particularly matter what stock uses it now, it could be run by classic compatibles with SDO.

 

[Purple Orange]

No idea, but someone would.

Like 395 services on southeastern, it would run as a stopping service as far as crewe, then run fast to Birmingham.

Also I got the service mixed up - but there is also a Manchester-Crewe stopping service via Stockport that currently terminates at Crewe and takes ~50 minutes that can be extended to Birmingham.

Also doesn't particularly matter what stock uses it now, it could be run by classic compatibles with SDO.

In a nutshell, it’s a non-starter. There wouldn’t be any significant gains and it would involve complete integration of HS2 with the existing network. The funny thing is that HS2 is intended to increase capacity, which is true in the south but removing capacity in the north.

 

[The Planner]

In a nutshell, it’s a non-starter. There wouldn’t be any significant gains and it would involve complete integration of HS2 with the existing network. The funny thing is that HS2 is intended to increase capacity, which is true in the south but removing capacity in the north.

Hs2 has to be integrated anyway or it doesnt work. What do you think is going to happen when phase 1 opens?

 

[CW2]

Cancel phase 2a and you end up with a massively diminshed case for Crewe renodelling. Would probably revert to like for like.

Is there anything published which gives the full details of the proposed remodelling of Crewe, assuming HS2 goes through to Manchester but Golborne link is abandoned?
I've been searching but can't find anything yet.
Thanks in advance.

 

[The Planner]

Is there anything published which gives the full details of the proposed remodelling of Crewe, assuming HS2 goes through to Manchester but Golborne link is abandoned?
I've been searching but can't find anything yet.
Thanks in advance.

I can never find stuff with the search function, but Im sure there is a youtube of a presentation to the PWI by the Crewe team. Not sure if the Crewe North spaghetti junction is on it though.

 

[swt_passenger]

I can never find stuff with the search function, but Im sure there is a youtube of a presentation to the PWI by the Crewe team. Not sure if the Crewe North spaghetti junction is on it though.

I think this is the presentation you mean. I haven’t watched it through so won’t attempt a summary:

 

[Purple Orange]

Hs2 has to be integrated anyway or it doesnt work. What do you think is going to happen when phase 1 opens?

Phase 1 and 2a are temporary solutions while 2b is built. I do acknowledge that there will be services to Liverpool and Scotland that use the existing network, but they will be a small proportion of the whole. Based on trend, the HS2 east and NPR projects are nothing but pipe dreams.