edwin_m
Veteran Member
Essentially shows Long Distance capacity has increased by 50% since 2007/8 and while demands growing around 7% a year its led to quite a bit of excess capacity that should last a decade or so. Suburban capacity on the other hand has increased by about 5-15% but is pretty full in peaks, looks like it will be beyond peak capacity in only a couple of years time though still masses of offpeak capacity (offpeak services between a third and half full with well over a decade of growth potential left).
(should of course be pointed out that a train leaving a terminus will usually increase loading till around midpoint during the journey while a train arriving at a terminus is not neccesarily still at its highest loading, i.e if a train leaves Euston for Scotland half full it will be a lot fuller by the time it reaches Wigan/Preston)
Doing the sums, compound growth of 7% a year results in a 50% increase in five years not ten, so if the 7% is correct this capacity will have been taken up already! However I suspect the actual growth is quite a bit less, as the new timetable probably caused a spike in 2008 and since then we have had the recession and some indication that the growth rates of the last decade or so will not continue long term.
The midpoint rule usually doesn't apply for trains serving London - they are generally fullest at the London terminus except for routes that serve a major interchange just outside London such as Clapham Junction.