GEML franchise 2016

[samuelmorris]

Given the considerably reduced pace of the 321 refurbishment progress thus far and the fact that neither of the two current units may be in revenue service by the original date the new franchise was supposed to start, it may well be that the project is written off with the original small batch rather than expanded. That said, I consider it very unlikely any large-scale rolling stock replacements are going to happen in the next franchise post-brexit. On that basis, I can see the rest of the 321 fleet kept as is. The only issue is how to deal with expansion. Perhaps a replacement fleet for the LHCS will be enlarged slightly to take the Ipswich services as well, with the small number of 321s that displaces being used to make up the numbers - the 317/6 diagrams perhaps redeployed to somewhere else on the GEML?

Either way, circumstances that have led up to this point make me think the East Anglia franchise will remain at or very near the bottom of the 'fleet age' tables for the entirety of the next franchise, possibly until the end of the 2020s.

 

[Bald Rick]

Greater Anglia needs a clear out, it's just a mess in terms of stock. What possessed National Express to order Electrostars instead of Class 350 Desiro stock, for example ?

They were much, much cheaper!

 

[HH]

Rumour is that, with an Abellio win, Alstom are the preferred manufacturer for any new stock.

Old news.

 

[Sleepy]

If this does turn into a complete dogs breakfast as many are predicting then plenty of East Anglia MPs will glad Mrs May is not holding a general election any time soon ..........

 

[dk1]

If this does turn into a complete dogs breakfast as many are predicting then plenty of East Anglia MPs will glad Mrs May is not holding a general election any time soon ..........

More entertainment ahead then

 

[Alfie1014]

Given the considerably reduced pace of the 321 refurbishment progress thus far and the fact that neither of the two current units may be in revenue service by the original date the new franchise was supposed to start, it may well be that the project is written off with the original small batch rather than expanded. That said, I consider it very unlikely any large-scale rolling stock replacements are going to happen in the next franchise post-brexit. On that basis, I can see the rest of the 321 fleet kept as is. The only issue is how to deal with expansion. Perhaps a replacement fleet for the LHCS will be enlarged slightly to take the Ipswich services as well, with the small number of 321s that displaces being used to make up the numbers - the 317/6 diagrams perhaps redeployed to somewhere else on the GEML?

Either way, circumstances that have led up to this point make me think the East Anglia franchise will remain at or very near the bottom of the 'fleet age' tables for the entirety of the next franchise, possibly until the end of the 2020s.

Extension has got to be dead cert with no more than two months to go. Doing nothing is not an option in respeact of rolling stock, PRI TSI/RVAR will require a refurbishment of the fleet (bringing 150+ 4 car EMUs plus hauled fleet up to standard) or replacement. That said I don't believe that this can be achieved in either case by 01/01/20 so some sort of end-date derogation will probably be a must as well. Interestingly in this months Today's Railways in an article on the new class 707s it states that the SWT EMU fleet is already compliant and the DMU fleet will be completed in the next year or so.

 

[samuelmorris]

I'm fully expecting PRM-TSI to be done away with or weakened to the extent that it allows existing stock to continue in use beyond the 2020 deadline, my understanding is that exiting the EU will allow a UK only legislation like RVAR or something to take its place. That being said, converting units like 321s to that standard does not necessitate refurbishment of the scope of the Renatus project - the 319 modifications done at Thameslink are a prime example of that. I imagine that cost a fraction as much per unit.

 

[swt_passenger]

I'm fully expecting PRM-TSI to be done away with or weakened to the extent that it allows existing stock to continue in use beyond the 2020 deadline, my understanding is that exiting the EU will allow a UK only legislation like RVAR or something to take its place. That being said, converting units like 321s to that standard does not necessitate refurbishment of the scope of the Renatus project - the 319 modifications done at Thameslink are a prime example of that. I imagine that cost a fraction as much per unit.

Reverting to RVAR doesn't change anything significantly, Roger Ford explained that the PRM-TSI actually relaxed certain aspects of RVAR.

 

[Dave1987]

Will Quince is already sounding a bit nervous on his social media about the whole saga.

 

[3141]

Will Quince is already sounding a bit nervous on his social media about the whole saga.

He and many other MPs could soon start sounding nervous about future franchises in general.

West Coast: uncertainties about reconstruction of Euston for HS2 (if it survives).

Wales: when or whether Cardiff to Swansea and The Valleys will be electrified.

South Western: whether or not to go for new trains, and the effects of a possible economic slowdown.

East and West Midlands: future electrification, or not, plus economic slowdown.

Senior figures at the DfT should be feeling nervous too. With the £ having fallen against the Euro and no-one knowing what level it may reach, and economic uncertainty making it more difficult to forecast future passenger growth or maybe decline, I'd be preparing the new Secretary of State for the idea of management contracts replacing franchises for several years to come.

 

[coppercapped]

I'm fully expecting PRM-TSI to be done away with or weakened to the extent that it allows existing stock to continue in use beyond the 2020 deadline, my understanding is that exiting the EU will allow a UK only legislation like RVAR or something to take its place. That being said, converting units like 321s to that standard does not necessitate refurbishment of the scope of the Renatus project - the 319 modifications done at Thameslink are a prime example of that. I imagine that cost a fraction as much per unit.

for the umpteenth time - the European TSI-PRM directive does NOT include any date for compliance. The UK added the compliance date to its internal legislation which was needed to transfer the TSI-PRM to UK law.

If the UK wants to give a derogation or repeal that part of the Act referring to the date it is quite entitled to do so. It has NOTHING to do with the EU.

The TSI-PRM in the rest of Europe simply means that new stock has to meet the requirements. There is no necessity to retrospectively modify existing stock.

 

[YorkshireBear]

for the umpteenth time - the European TSI-PRM directive does NOT include any date for compliance. The UK added the compliance date to its internal legislation which was needed to transfer the TSI-PRM to UK law.

If the UK wants to give a derogation or repeal that part of the Act referring to the date it is quite entitled to do so. It has NOTHING to do with the EU.

The TSI-PRM in the rest of Europe simply means that new stock has to meet the requirements. There is no necessity to retrospectively modify existing stock.

And that is one of the answers to the question, why are European Railways better value for money. It is amazing how many EU laws cause untold trouble for us but no one else in Europe, the answer is as said, to look closer to home.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

And that is one of the answers to the question, why are European Railways better value for money. It is amazing how many EU laws cause untold trouble for us but no one else in Europe, the answer is as said, to look closer to home.

The 2020 date is there to motivate the TOCs/ROSCOs to upgrade/replace their stock, and to satisfy the disability lobby.
The same thing happened with slam door stock, and the TOCs/ROSCOs were essentially caught out, having to replace large quantities of stock by 2000, despite a decade or so's notice.
The EU left it to local laws under subsidiarity agreements (the last time we complained about being managed from Brussels).

 

[Sleepy]

:roll::roll::roll: whatever happens the AGA is desperate for additional DMU stock somehow: when you have 153 full & standing from Beccles to Ipswich on a Monday afternoon something is going to have give soon.

 

[northwichcat]

:roll::roll::roll: whatever happens the AGA is desperate for additional DMU stock somehow: when you have 153 full & standing from Beccles to Ipswich on a Monday afternoon something is going to have give soon.

Is that due to school holidays or is it normally the case?

 

[43074]

:roll::roll::roll: whatever happens the AGA is desperate for additional DMU stock somehow...

I think that much has been apparent for a long time before now! School holidays or not, AGA frequently struggle to run the advertised DMU service, anyway, only exacerbated when you have incidents involving one of the many level crossings in the area, or a bad leaf fall etc etc.

What will be interesting is not only what is proposed to strengthen the existing DMU fleet but more what has been proposed for the extra Lowestoft - London & Stansted Airport extensions, if Anglia were to take on the 5 156s from Scotrail that would be a great help in terms of just running the basic service, but I can't see those running to Liverpool St or Stansted Airport...

 

[deltic]

I understand an announcement should at last be made this week - no idea who the winner is

 

[ainsworth74]

I understand an announcement should at last be made this week - no idea who the winner is

"We're sorry to announce that the franchise award for the Greater Anglia Franchise has been delayed. This is due to turbulent political weather. There is currently no estimate for when franchise awards will resume. Please listen for further announcements."

I should expect something like that any way

 

[HH]

Rumours say that an October start is still on the cards. If that's the case there can only be one winner...

 

[WatcherZero]

So what was about to be announced before the Brexit vote was Abellio to retain with a near complete fleet replacement of a brand new Alstom 125mph design and Stadler in the running for regional stock.

Will be interesting to see how its changed, whether the amount of new rolling stock will be reduced to the level of the other two bidders who wernt as ambitious with new build orders. Or even a temporary extension or different winner.

 

[northwichcat]

So what was about to be announced before the Brexit vote was Abellio to retain with a near complete fleet replacement of a brand new Alstom 125mph design and Stadler in the running for regional stock.

Will be interesting to see how its changed, whether the amount of new rolling stock will be reduced to the level of the other two bidders who wernt as ambitious with new build orders. Or even a temporary extension or different winner.

What's interesting about that is Abellio originally partnered with Stagecoach so that Stagecoach could provide financial backing for their ambitious plans. Presumably they found an investor to take Stagecoach's place but is their replacement investor willing to invest as much as they originally proposed?

 

[deltic]

This is only a guess but I would expect the only changes to be some mechanism which allows for changes in the level of premium paid by the winning bidder in the event the economy performs less well than the economic forecasts on which the bids were originally predicated. If growth is less than predicted then there may also be some get out from providing additional rolling stock.

As the whole process did not go out to retendering it would be surprising if fundamental changes could be made to the proposals made by the bidders.

 

[WatcherZero]

The bids are always modular though with lots of options that the Dft can choose from beyond the base bid, this much reduction in premium will allow x extra capacity investment or y less in the initial years will allow more investment and greater premiums to be returned to the Dft in later years.

 

[deltic]

The bids are always modular though with lots of options that the Dft can choose from beyond the base bid, this much reduction in premium will allow x extra capacity investment or y less in the initial years will allow more investment and greater premiums to be returned to the Dft in later years.

But the issue here is that the base case has changed due to the assumed economic fallout from Brexit. The question for DfT and preferred bidder is how do they deal with this expected reduction in demand and revenues and what is the implication in terms of rolling stock requirements.

 

[WatcherZero]

That should actually be less of an issue, a financial adjustment negotiated. All bidders bid to an expected economic performance so an updated economic forecast change to that at award shouldn't invalidate the process itself.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

That should actually be less of an issue, a financial adjustment negotiated. All bidders bid to an expected economic performance so an updated economic forecast change to that at award shouldn't invalidate the process itself.

The question is whether both sides (DfT and bidders) are prepared to take the economic risk over the 9 years intended franchise length.
Part of the risk is UK growth, but the other is the cost of non-UK rolling stock and services (not limited to the EU).
I could see the franchise length being reduced to something the parties would accept (say 5 years?), and then the question is what that does to the business case for stock replacement.
Other recent pre-Brexit deals must also be affected - eg the Northern deal with CAF.
Any deal also needs the Roscos and the banks to sign up to it.
One would hope the DfT wants to do a deal, so that it can be seen as "business as usual".
If we have a Hinkley "pause" it could be very damaging for future franchising.

 

[northwichcat]

Other recent pre-Brexit deals must also be affected - eg the Northern deal with CAF.

According to Arriva the CAF contract was signed on 21st January: http://www.arriva.co.uk/media/news/2016/21-01-2016 so if it's a done deal it'll be a bit hard for someone to pull out. Northern are one of the few franchises who would expect to see passenger number rises across the network in the event of a recession so if a recession does occur it might seem like they've acquired too few additional carriages.

 

[deltic]

Unlikely to be a reduction in length of franchise as that would presumably require such a fundamental change in the contract that it would have to be retendered. All bids as I understand it are based on substantial fleet replacement which is a key factor in achieving growth and reducing costs. Roger Ford has made this comment a few times.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

According to Arriva the CAF contract was signed on 21st January: http://www.arriva.co.uk/media/news/2016/21-01-2016 so if it's a done deal it'll be a bit hard for someone to pull out. Northern are one of the few franchises who would expect to see passenger number rises across the network in the event of a recession so if a recession does occur it might seem like they've acquired too few additional carriages.

I didn't mean that deal would be unpicked, just that the (adverse) impact of Brexit would likely affect Northern's/DfT's finances and therefore impact the generosity of upcoming franchise deals.
You can't just lose 10% (or whatever it turns out to be) on rolling stock costs and not notice.

 

[northwichcat]

I didn't mean that deal would be unpicked, just that the (adverse) impact of Brexit would likely affect Northern's/DfT's finances and therefore impact the generosity of upcoming franchise deals.
You can't just lose 10% (or whatever it turns out to be) on rolling stock costs and not notice.

But if the leasing costs have been agreed then won't it be the ROSCO who takes the hit and possibly a future TOC not really getting as much of a discount as they expect for leasing second-hand trains?