My prediction is that Verstappen will come fifth in one of the US races and will be chasing an eight-point deficit to Norris for the rest of the season. Norris to win by three points.
Given Mclaren strategy this season, Lando winning every race is by no means a sure bet.
Personally, I the most likely non-Verstappen championship is that we see multiple (>=2?) repeats of Monza/Baku and Norris wins most races, but still fumbles a few.
Riccardo taking the fastest lap is arguably significant, as 1 point per race is critical for the championship at the current progress, however, Mclaren/Norris have blundered so many points this season:
16 at Silverstone (Norris and Piastri would've taken points off Max)
7 at Hungary
a few more at Spa
up to 13 from a poor quali strategy at Baku (they didn't need an optimal track to get through Q1, should've copied Ferrari in going out a few minutes before everyone else)
Without these Lando would be ~10 points behind Max and favourite for the championship