First Group: General Discussion

[Robertj21a]

The 16 plates that went to Norwich and Leicester but did a stint ON Bristol to Bath RRS on delivery last March

Thanks, that's what I thought. I'm surprised that there's still a debate about which year's order they related to. I had confirmation at the time that they were a 'special' extra order, signed off before anything had been agreed for the following year (rather confirmed by their delivery dates).

I suppose it doesn't really now matter as to which year First allocated them to - some will say that they were clearly a late addition (although First's internal papers may need to suggest otherwise).

 

[THarris123]

https://www.firstgroup.com/about-us/news/red-buses-return-norwich

Sounds to me like Norwich might be getting some new investment this year. Considering that quite a lot of their fleet are 51-52 reg Tridents, surely they can't be directly replacing those with new stock? What lines are there left to add modern fleet on - Orange, Purple and Yellow?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

https://www.firstgroup.com/about-us/news/red-buses-return-norwich

Sounds to me like Norwich might be getting some new investment this year. Considering that quite a lot of their fleet are 51-52 reg Tridents, surely they can't be directly replacing those with new stock? What lines are there left to add modern fleet on - Orange, Purple and Yellow?

You'll just have to find out!

However, this is the issue with First. There was an upsurge in new vehicles delivered in 2001-5 both provincially and then to London that then had to be rehomed. All you have to do is look at fleets like Bristol, Glasgow or West Yorkshire to see the evidence of that; a lot of fleet in those areas date from that period.

Without wishing to read too much "between the lines", it doesn't actually say new buses. It uses more vague terms like "continued investment" so will just have to see what gives. Indeed, the vehicles illustrated are modern cascades

 

[THarris123]

You'll just have to find out!

However, this is the issue with First. There was an upsurge in new vehicles delivered in 2001-5 both provincially and then to London that then had to be rehomed. All you have to do is look at fleets like Bristol, Glasgow or West Yorkshire to see the evidence of that; a lot of fleet in those areas date from that period.

Without wishing to read too much "between the lines", it doesn't actually say new buses. It uses more vague terms like "continued investment" so will just have to see what gives. Indeed, the vehicles illustrated are modern cascades

Maybe they'll just see some more 12 plate B9s.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Maybe they'll just see some more 12 plate B9s.

Who knows? They have been trialling a Scania e400mmc on the X1 so any order for that service could release vehicles for redeployment either locally or elsewhere.

Trying to second guess is always a fraught affair

 

[overthewater]

At least there getting newer stock, come to Glasgow where its just been reported on this forum 16 year old stock is being push into front line service.

I've always said if a bus is looked after its can do 20 years.... those tridents haven't.

 

[THarris123]

At least there getting newer stock, come to Glasgow where its just been reported on this forum 16 year old stock is being push into front line service.

I've always said if a bus is looked after its can do 20 years.... those tridents haven't.

Yes but Glasgow are bound to have a fair few new buses this year. The number of old 15-16 year old vehicles is the highest in the entire first fleet. I wonder if the 61 reg E400s will be displaced this year with new stock? Or maybe we'll see some of the routes the 2004 reg B7TLs operate on get new stuff? We could maybe see some cascades from Scotland East which now has hardly any old fleet left.

 

[Volvodart]

Yes but Glasgow are bound to have a fair few new buses this year. The number of old 15-16 year old vehicles is the highest in the entire first fleet. I wonder if the 61 reg E400s will be displaced this year with new stock? Or maybe we'll see some of the routes the 2004 reg B7TLs operate on get new stuff? We could maybe see some cascades from Scotland East which now has hardly any old fleet left.

Scotland East will not be likely to get any new buses for several years with its fleet age profile. It is likely any cascades to Glasgow will be travelling north rather than south.

 

[overthewater]

Yes but Glasgow are bound to have a fair few new buses this year. The number of old 15-16 year old vehicles is the highest in the entire first fleet. I wonder if the 61 reg E400s will be displaced this year with new stock? Or maybe we'll see some of the routes the 2004 reg B7TLs operate on get new stuff? We could maybe see some cascades from Scotland East which now has hardly any old fleet left.

Until we see a nice order and there are sent to Glasgow, its impossible to say.

I think First really should buy 100 odd extra deckers to be split between Glasgow and Yorkshire. I cant see how the current fleet replacement will manage to clear out the fleet.

Scotland East will not be likely to get any new buses for several years with its fleet age profile. It is likely any cascades to Glasgow will be travelling north rather than south.

I think FSE will get some cascades in a maybe 2018/19 to keep the deckers within age for the school work.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Until we see a nice order and there are sent to Glasgow, its impossible to say.

I think First really should buy 100 odd extra deckers to be split between Glasgow and Yorkshire. I cant see how the current fleet replacement will manage to clear out the fleet.


I think FSE will get some cascades in a maybe 2018/19 to keep the deckers within age for the school work.

Correct - it really is impossible to say.

Remember that the asset life has been pushed out to 17 years so deckers that are 15/16 yrs old may have to push on a little bit further

 

[overthewater]

Correct - it really is impossible to say.

Remember that the asset life has been pushed out to 17 years so deckers that are 15/16 yrs old may have to push on a little bit further

That would mean the 51 plates must be on the way out this year surly?

 

[GaryMcEwan]

That would mean the 51 plates must be on the way out this year surly?

Doubt it, they are still using Presidents that are older than that...

 

[THarris123]

Scotland East will not be likely to get any new buses for several years with its fleet age profile. It is likely any cascades to Glasgow will be travelling north rather than south.

Very true. I don't think they will get new vehicles this year at all in Scotland East and I have no idea why I mentioned that

I cant see Scotland East getting anything new for the next 2 years at least, however they might see that some midlife stuff could do with replacing to be cascaded elsewhere.

But yes you are generally right - I suspect we'll see some cascades from the south to Glasgow this year. Not sure where it will be from, nor what it will be.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That would mean the 51 plates must be on the way out this year surly?

If the asset life has been extended, there is the potential for outstanding depreciation by withdrawing early and so a financial hit surely?

 

[overthewater]

If the asset life has been extended, there is the potential for outstanding depreciation by withdrawing early and so a financial hit surely?

I believe the only reason the those buses have been sent to Glasgow, is there are badly needing buses. I keep on hearing Glasgow is short.

 

[THarris123]

I believe the only reason the those buses have been sent to Glasgow, is there are badly needing buses. I keep on hearing Glasgow is short.

I think everywhere is short at the moment from what I understand.

 

[overthewater]

I think everywhere is short at the moment from what I understand.

Maybe it should buy more second hand stock? I just dont want to see any more cuts, Glasgow cant take them, Stagecoach and Mcgills will just dive straight in.

 

[THarris123]

Maybe it should buy more second hand stock? I just dont want to see any more cuts, Glasgow cant take them, Stagecoach and Mcgills will just dive straight in.

I think we'll see about 50 or so vehicles for Glasgow this year and probably at least 40 next. Then a few cascades over the next couple of years too. There's a chunk of 2003 reg stuff in Glasgow too, so its not like its seriously old.

 

[overthewater]

I think we'll see about 50 or so vehicles for Glasgow this year and probably at least 40 next. Then a few cascades over the next couple of years too. There's a chunk of 2003 reg stuff in Glasgow too, so its not like its seriously old.

That alone would not even make it possible for Glasgow to have 17 year life span, it would be more like 21 years.

Of course the Lanarkshire routes might get stock since its making money, but the inner city, I dont know what to think.

 

[THarris123]

That alone would not even make it possible for Glasgow to have 17 year life span, it would be more like 21 years.

Of course the Lanarkshire routes might get stock since its making money, but the inner city, I dont know what to think.

Well Glasgow have 129 2001 reg vehicles (singles and deckers), so if we said 50 new this year, 40 new next and then about 40 cascades that would cover it. Then Glasgow currently have 8 2000 reg vehicles, 23 2002 and 65 2003 so if they had 50 in 2019 they would be changing the age profile quite a bit.

 

[Strathclyder]

I wonder if the 61 reg E400s will be displaced this year with new stock?

Highly unlikely, as they are the only deckers that can be used on the busy No.6 cross-city service (Clydebank - East Kilbride), due to the low railway bridge at Busby and their low-height specification as a direct result. If they were to be cascaded out, 30+ new low-height deckers would have to be sourced to replace them, in addition to replacements for the oldest Tridents. It's better that they're kept here for the foreseeable.

 

[Robertj21a]

Maybe it should buy more second hand stock? I just dont want to see any more cuts, Glasgow cant take them, Stagecoach and Mcgills will just dive straight in.

Why should they be making significant cuts ? - the last Accounts showed Glasgow to be one of the most profitable parts of First Bus.

 

[overthewater]

Why should they be making significant cuts ? - the last Accounts showed Glasgow to be one of the most profitable parts of First Bus.

FiG no2 which made the most money, Fig no1 has a much bigger fleet and more routes and made less profits, than No2. No2 also has newer stock, No1 has the oldest stock. Think of Wigan.

Mind you there are still people complaining in the metro about Fig no1.

 

[Robertj21a]

FiG no2 which made the most money, Fig no1 has a much bigger fleet and more routes and made less profits, than No2. No2 also has newer stock, No1 has the oldest stock. Think of Wigan.

Mind you there are still people complaining in the metro about Fig no1.

Are we looking at the same Accounts ?

First Glasgow 1 showed Operating Profits c£6m
First Glasgow 2 showed Operating Profits c£5m

That's pretty good going for First !

 

[overthewater]

There is 854 buses in First Glasgow in Total.

First Glasgow has:

Blantyre: 144
Dumbarton: 65
Overtown: 53
Overall No2: 262

Yet First Glasgow No1 has three times as much with around 600 buses and yet can only muster up £1 million more profits?

 

[Robertj21a]

There is 854 buses in First Glasgow in Total.

First Glasgow has:

Blantyre: 144
Dumbarton: 65
Overtown: 53
Overall No2: 262

Yet First Glasgow No1 has three times as much with around 600 buses and yet can only muster up £1 million more profits?

The key point isn't really about the number of buses but that both operations are significantly profitable - I bet First wish they had a few more like it !!

 

[overthewater]

Yet the fleet of FiG wouldn't cry out as significantly profitable. More like its on the cheap.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

There is 854 buses in First Glasgow in Total.

First Glasgow has:

Blantyre: 144
Dumbarton: 65
Overtown: 53
Overall No2: 262

Yet First Glasgow No1 has three times as much with around 600 buses and yet can only muster up £1 million more profits?

Your maths are atrocious - 31% of the fleet is FG2 so FG1 has just over twice as many vehicles. Let's not dip down into post truth!

The fact is that we're into the silly season of people trawling through fleetlists and press releases to try and second guess what may occur in the next month.

Experience proves that this approach is seldom correct - I don't recall anyone predicting 30 new deckers for Cornwall

 

[DD12]

The fact is that we're into the silly season of people trawling through fleetlists and press releases to try and second guess what may occur in the next month.

Experience proves that this approach is seldom correct - I don't recall anyone predicting 30 new deckers for Cornwall

I like to speculate about all possible future bus developments - I find it great fun, and I like to read all the speculations on here -
including the possible cascades.

There are often interesting bits of information and debate mixed in with it -
like I didn't know about the Scania E400 mmc, on trial on the X1.

Keep it up everyone !!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I like to speculate about all possible future bus developments - I find it great fun, and I like to read all the speculations on here -
including the possible cascades.

There are often interesting bits of information and debate mixed in with it -
like I didn't know about the Scania E400 mmc, on trial on the X1.

Keep it up everyone !!

In which case, they'll be 100 new deckers for each of Glasgow, Bristol, Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester plus at least 10 e200mmc for Balfron, Lowestoft, Haverfordwest and Braintree.

That do you for speculation

There is a difference between sensible informed speculation and total BS.