According to the Freedom of Information request from Jan 2011, there are thirteen LM class 150's still to find a home for. Does anyone know if a decision has been made on these yet?.
It would seem to make sense to me to send eight of these 150's to FGW to replace the eight class 143's that they have and then send those eight to Arriva Trains Wales. They then would hold all twenty three of that class.
Arriva Wales could then start the process of cascading their 142's to Northern, so that Northern can hold all the 142 stock. This would leave Arriva with seven 142's. If you take into account that Arriva Wales are also receiving two class 150's back from FGW and that LM could send them the remaining five class 150's still to allocate, then that would leave Arriva Wales in a position to send the remaining 142's to Northern.
This would leave all 143's with Arriva and all 142's and 144's with Northern. Northern could use the extra stock to further strengthen services whilst taking one or two (poorest condition) 142's from service to act as cost saving spare parts supplies.
Of course the cascading of the 142's to Northern depends on Arriva's own need to strengthen services.
As a follow on from what I have written above, if that plan were to be carried out then afterwards the DFT should then incentivise LM to place the order for a further twenty six Class 172's early. This incentive would not have to be anywhere near the full train value as LM plan to take these trains at some point anyway. This would not solve the Bomabardier jobs issue but certainly be of help.
This would free up LM's remaining few Class 150's (conflicting reports of seven or nine they are keeping for now, which is accurate?) to send to Arriva Wales. They could then strengthen services and take out one or two class 143's to act as cost saving parts machines.
I have read on here that the electrification of Liverpool-Manchester should free up around twenty five class 150's/142's. If this is correct then those could cascade to replace Northerns 144's. Leaving Northern with a large uniform 142 Pacer stock. However the electrification not taking place till 2016 leaves this too late for my liking.
In the 2016-18 timeframe my guesstimate is that thirty Networkers will be freed up by Great Western electrification. If these are cascaded further down the Western (as rumoured) then that should free up some (but perhaps not thirty) Class 150/153/158's, but it still seems that without some healthy stock orders that we will be struggling to remove Pacers by the 2019 deadline, let alone start making headway on Sprinter replacement.
Aside from the fact that there are fewer "spare" 150 (as discussed in later posts), you make some very good points here. I think that giving ATW all the 143s (plus some 150s) so that they can hand over their 142s to Northern makes sense nationally (bad for those of us in Yorkshire, but am trying to look at the bigger picture here).
Maybe the way to do it would be...
ATW gain 8x 143 from FGW
Northern gain 15x 142 from ATW
Northern lose 9x 153 to ATW
Northern lose 9x 153 to FGW
...so Northern lose all their 153s (seems daft to retain just one or two) in exchange for some larger 142s), ATW gain a more standard fleet (143s + 153s to see off their small fleet of 142s) plus FGW gain a more standard fleet as they get rid of their remaining Pacers (with the 142s already earmarked for Northern).
You can tweak it slightly, and the 150 cascade can be used to even things up, but it would make the railway operationally simpler. Plus, whilst I don't *want* Northern to end up with all the 142s, if it was in exchange for their 153s then a few services would get a capacity increase (e.g. the Sellafield service being discussed on another thread).
Also, having bigger/fewer classes at each TOC should help them get better unit availability (e.g. Northern only use 67% of their small 180 allocation each day, but with 90x 142s you'd expect them to be able to run a higher percentage).
(yes, none of the above is ideal, and wouldn't it be nice if we had brand new 172s on every line, but I'm trying to be realistic based on the finite number of DMUs we currently have and the muddled allocation of them between TOCs)