Exit strategy predictions

[chris11256]

newspapers exaggerated slightly, Boris has promised a plan next week. Although there'll be no dates attached to the plan.

 

[takno]

newspapers exaggerated slightly, Boris has promised a plan next week. Although there'll be no dates attached to the plan.

My guess is that he got Sturgeon to front up earlier with the downbeat message, and when it didn't play well decided to go for plan B

 

[C J Snarzell]

From Boris Johnson's speech to the nation earlier it does seem that over the next seven days there will be teams of 'planners' spending some long hours drawing up proposals for implementing the exit strategy. I would think there will be teams looking at different aspects of the whys and wherefores of do & not doing certain things.

Going back to social distancing - my 75-year-old auntie spent a very difficult hour this afternoon queuing up in the pouring rain outside her Morrisons store (clutching her umbrella!). We've so far been fortunate to have the Spring weather on our side the past few weeks, but it is a good point she made about it - ''If Covid19 doesn't get me, pneumonia will!!''. Can we expect lines of people to form long queues in adverse weather like this for months to come?

Again I've had many conversations about social distancing. For example, would I be able to test drive a new car because in theory the car dealer wouldn't be able to sit with me in a confined space!!! Therefore are car garages going to suffer from the fallout of this epidemic.

CJ

 

[baz962]

From Boris Johnson's speech to the nation earlier it does seem that over the next seven days there will be teams of 'planners' spending some long hours drawing up proposals for implementing the exit strategy. I would think there will be teams looking at different aspects of the whys and wherefores of do & not doing certain things.

Going back to social distancing - my 75-year-old auntie spent a very difficult hour this afternoon queuing up in the pouring rain outside her Morrisons store (clutching her umbrella!). We've so far been fortunate to have the Spring weather on our side the past few weeks, but it is a good point she made about it - ''If Covid19 doesn't get me, pneumonia will!!''. Can we expect lines of people to form long queues in adverse weather like this for months to come?

Again I've had many conversations about social distancing. For example, would I be able to test drive a new car because in theory the car dealer wouldn't be able to sit with me in a confined space!!! Therefore are car garages going to suffer from the fallout of this epidemic.

CJ

On the car test drive bit. Time before last that we renewed the other halfs car , the dealer didn't come. Just let her and I to it , on our own.

 

[HH]

Another +1 on weekly vs 3 weekly.

Strangely enough I said to my wife that this was a change that made sense - if they want to be "sure footed" as they said numerous times the other day, then waiting 3 weeks to change things doesn't seem operable.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Again I've had many conversations about social distancing. For example, would I be able to test drive a new car because in theory the car dealer wouldn't be able to sit with me in a confined space!!! Therefore are car garages going to suffer from the fallout of this epidemic.

The answer to this is probably already there - go ask a motorcycle dealer how they manage test rides and do that. Or indeed a car hire place!

Probably involves giving credit card details and agreeing to a whacking debit if not returned or returned damaged.

By the way you don't get pneumonia from standing in the cold any more than you get a cold that way. Though I'd like to see older people given priority - let us young (ish) people do the standing in the cold because it really is not going to kill us.

 

[Enthusiast]

Except that you were talking about new cases, not hospitalisations...

The only "new cases" that are counted (and those I have been referring to in my calculations) are those resulting in hospitalisations. Nobody knows how many new cases there are in total. There are those who may have sought medical help but not been hospitalised, those who have or have had the disease but not severely enough to require medical treatment and those who have or have had the disease and were completely unaware of it. All of these may have infected others and nobody knows how many of them there are or how many they have infected. Suggestions that they may have a "good idea" of how many there are fanciful. They can guess. That's why talk of the magic "R" number (particularly to one decimal place) is mumbo-jumbo. If it isn't perhaps somebody can help me understand how it can be calculated. Since nobody knows how many are infected and nobody knows how many are becoming infected it is impossible to say how many, on average, those with the virus have infected. The only firm guidance they have are hospitalisations and deaths. All the rest - including the "R" number - is pure guesswork. Interestingly, coupled with the PM's announcement that we were "past the peak" came today's hospitalisation numbers. They were 6,032. This is only the second time they have exceeded 6,000. The other occasion was on 11th April when there was what seemed to be a "spike" of 8,719.

 

[Domh245]

Interestingly, coupled with the PM's announcement that we were "past the peak" came today's hospitalisation numbers. They were 6,032. This is only the second time they have exceeded 6,000. The other occasion was on 11th April when there was what seemed to be a "spike" of 8,719.

Where are you getting this hospitalisation number from? I can see reference to a "6032" today, but that's the increase in the number of positive tests. Seeing as we're now testing far more people than before, you'd expect this number to go up. The number of COVID patients in Hospital is down by 316 to 15,043. Source

 

[Qwerty133]

The answer to this is probably already there - go ask a motorcycle dealer how they manage test rides and do that. Or indeed a car hire place!

Probably involves giving credit card details and agreeing to a whacking debit if not returned or returned damaged.

By the way you don't get pneumonia from standing in the cold any more than you get a cold that way. Though I'd like to see older people given priority - let us young (ish) people do the standing in the cold because it really is not going to kill us.

The thing is that older people shouldn't be in the shops in the first place and should be shopping online where possible or having relatives (or volunteers) shop for them. In the same way that many stores have realised that dedicated hours was encouraging such people to needlessly shop for themselves it is likely that priority queuing would cause an increase in older people shopping which wouldn't be a good thing. The other issue in that would be that many older people wouldn't opt for the priority queue if the system was self policing and if it was policed they'd almost certainly end up being numerous arguments as to the cut off age or why x circumstance means a person deserves priority.
Unfortunately while not ideal for everyone a first come first served system with no exceptions is almost certainly the best option in the current circumstances, and those who are less able to queue should simply opt to shop at a less popular time where ever possible.

 

[johnnychips]

The thing is that older people shouldn't be in the shops in the first place and should be shopping online where possible or having relatives (or volunteers) shop for them.

No.

I have seen loads of evidently over-70 people walking in the streets and parks of Sheffield, keeping the required distance, and to some extent going for walks at quieter times. To a lesser degree they are going shopping.

I haven’t any friends or relatives over-70, but if there are any members here in that group do let me know what you think.

If I were 70, and this is only 10 years away, I expect I might be thinking:

- if I have this virus, I certainly don’t want to give it anyone, but I have no symptoms
- if I catch this virus, I’ve got a higher chance of dying than most people
- however, this self-isolation is doing my head in. I might not even be able to access all this Skype and Zoom; or unfortunately I’ve nobody who cares for me anyway
- I really need to get out, so I’ll go out at times when I’m less likely to meet other people
- if I get it, these things happen

 

[Enthusiast]

Where are you getting this hospitalisation number from? I can see reference to a "6032" today, but that's the increase in the number of positive tests. Seeing as we're now testing far more people than before, you'd expect this number to go up. The number of COVID patients in Hospital is down by 316 to 15,043.

Though it may now be changing, the predominant number of positive tests are among those seriously ill and in hospitals. From NHS England:

It’s also important to remember that most testing to date has been offered to those in hospital with a medical need as well as NHS key workers, rather than the general population, many with mild symptoms. So confirmed cases represent the typical population of people with severe disease, rather than all of those who get infected.

 

[jellybaby]

Since nobody knows how many are infected and nobody knows how many are becoming infected it is impossible to say how many, on average, those with the virus have infected.

We know how many are hospitalised we have a working theory of how the percentage of people that get infected need hospital treatment (eg from other countries) which allows you to work backwards to the number of infections. I agree it will have massive error bars though.

There is a plan to test 100,000 random people next week which will give a better picture. More details at https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/197217/home-testing-coronavirus-track-levels-infection/ and https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ll-track-levels-of-infection-in-the-community

 

[C J Snarzell]

The answer to this is probably already there - go ask a motorcycle dealer how they manage test rides and do that. Or indeed a car hire place!

Probably involves giving credit card details and agreeing to a whacking debit if not returned or returned damaged.

By the way you don't get pneumonia from standing in the cold any more than you get a cold that way. Though I'd like to see older people given priority - let us young (ish) people do the standing in the cold because it really is not going to kill us.

If we had a full week of poor weather (which is not uncommon) could the practicalities of social distant queuing be worthwhile? You could argue, that people could do the weekly shop on a 'dry' day so they can stand outside the supermarket and not get soaked. The problem comes if everyone thinks that way and hardly anyone turns up on 'wet' days and then when the sun comes out people are queuing up for miles!!!

My auntie did feel a little unwell after being exposed to wet weather for over an hour when it was quite windy on the car park aswell. My original post is that potentially making older people stand outside queuing for prolonged periods in inclement weather may make them vulnerable to catching other illnesses attributed to the cold.

Even if shops and businesses tried to prioritise older people (like they have done with NHS staff), so they wouldn't be stood outside too long in bad weather - wouldn't the younger folks kept stood in the rain for longer start to object? People may potentially need to prove their age by way of ID, but again would this system only be used in periods of bad weather? When the sun comes up, would older people then have to revert to queuing again?

I've had quite a few conversations about social distancing with different people and I genuinely think it is not practical long term for multiple reasons. It does seem to be working for the time being and I do think people are adhering to it but can it still be used for months to come?

CJ

 

[bramling]

If we had a full week of poor weather (which is not uncommon) could the practicalities of social distant queuing be worthwhile? You could argue, that people could do the weekly shop on a 'dry' day so they can stand outside the supermarket and not get soaked. The problem comes if everyone thinks that way and hardly anyone turns up on 'wet' days and then when the sun comes out people are queuing up for miles!!!

My auntie did feel a little unwell after being exposed to wet weather for over an hour when it was quite windy on the car park aswell. My original post is that potentially making older people stand outside queuing for prolonged periods in inclement weather may make them vulnerable to catching other illnesses attributed to the cold.

Even if shops and businesses tried to prioritise older people (like they have done with NHS staff), so they wouldn't be stood outside too long in bad weather - wouldn't the younger folks kept stood in the rain for longer start to object? People may potentially need to prove their age by way of ID, but again would this system only be used in periods of bad weather? When the sun comes up, would older people then have to revert to queuing again?

I've had quite a few conversations about social distancing with different people and I genuinely think it is not practical long term for multiple reasons. It does seem to be working for the time being and I do think people are adhering to it but can it still be used for months to come?

Yes I think there would be objections if old people were prioritized if (as is inevitable) this means everyone else has to wait longer. The queuing isn't such a massive issue at the moment as many people have time on their hands, however once people are back at work and having to juggle many activities into a finite space of time, as key workers are doing at the moment, the supply of patience will evaporate very quickly.

 

[HH]

The only "new cases" that are counted (and those I have been referring to in my calculations) are those resulting in hospitalisations.

That's simply not true. All the rest of your explanation is moot, because this is wrong from the start. The fact that the "blue bar" tests are largely carried out in hospitals is not the same as the number of hospitalisations that day. If you want to use it as an approximation, just say that.

 

[edwin_m]

That's simply not true. All the rest of your explanation is moot, because this is wrong from the start. The fact that the "blue bar" tests are largely carried out in hospitals is not the same as the number of hospitalisations that day. If you want to use it as an approximation, just say that.

In the last few weeks the number of tests done has gone up by a factor of around three, so it's only to be expected that they will be picking up more positives of people who weren't ill enough to go to hospital. As I posted earlier, the total number in hospital is the best measure to look at if the strategy is to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed, as that also takes account of the likelihood that the average time in hospital is reducing. That's gone down from a peak of just over 20000 to just over 15000 now, so with about 30000 beds available it suggest the NHS could cope with a doubling of cases (but there is some risk that there aren't enough qualified staff to match the number of beds). That probably still isn't enough to justify relaxing the lockdown, but if the numbers continue current trends it might be in a few weeks.

 

[HH]

In the last few weeks the number of tests done has gone up by a factor of around three, so it's only to be expected that they will be picking up more positives of people who weren't ill enough to go to hospital. As I posted earlier, the total number in hospital is the best measure to look at if the strategy is to prevent the hospitals being overwhelmed, as that also takes account of the likelihood that the average time in hospital is reducing. That's gone down from a peak of just over 20000 to just over 15000 now, so with about 30000 beds available it suggest the NHS could cope with a doubling of cases (but there is some risk that there aren't enough qualified staff to match the number of beds). That probably still isn't enough to justify relaxing the lockdown, but if the numbers continue current trends it might be in a few weeks.

Yes, I wouldn't disagree with this at all.

I do think it would be helpful for them to release the hospital figures by "previous number, +new admissions, -deaths, -recoveries (left hospital), new number" format, but I suspect that the numbers would scare some people (i.e. the number of deaths compared to the number hospitalised).

 

[AM9]

I'm sure that I'm not the only person here over 70, but I'll answer your points, (within your text).

... but if there are any members here in that group do let me know what you think.

If I were 70, and this is only 10 years away, I expect I might be thinking:

- if I have this virus, I certainly don’t want to give it anyone, but I have no symptoms

agreed

- if I catch this virus, I’ve got a higher chance of dying than most people

agreed

- however, this self-isolation is doing my head in. I might not even be able to access all this Skype and Zoom; or unfortunately I’ve nobody who cares for me anyway

not true for me but I can undertstand the plight of some although there is a lot of hyperbole around on the subject

- I really need to get out, so I’ll go out at times when I’m less likely to meet other people

agreed

- if I get it, these things happen

agreed

 

[HH]

Reported in today's Times that South Korean scientists have revered their previous conclusion that people can get the virus twice (within a relatively short timeframe, as they obviously don't have longer term data yet). Apparently it was their testing that was at fault - which shows that at least one of our scientific expert's mantas is true, "a bad test is worse than no test".

If the SK scientists are correct this time, then it does suggest you can get at least a short-term "herd immunity". Of course getting there may be a painful process.

 

[nlogax]

If the SK scientists are correct this time, then it does suggest you can get at least a short-term "herd immunity". Of course getting there may be a painful process.

Herd immunity would be good way to go but as you say..painful process - and I don't think one suited to a dangerous and fast-spreading virus such as this. Instead we may be heading into a year of (now well-rehearsed!) mini-lockdowns assisted with remdesivir and other anti-virals until a vaccine arrives.

 

[HH]

Herd immunity would be good way to go but as you say..painful process - and I don't think one suited to a dangerous and fast-spreading virus such as this. Instead we may be heading into a year of (now well-rehearsed!) mini-lockdowns assisted with remdesivir and other anti-virals until a vaccine arrives.

The other possibility is that the antibody test will now have a meaning (if you could re-catch the virus it would have been pointless) so there is some sort of case of the "health passport" idea.

Also from today's Times. Dr Flaxman (Imperial College) discussing what would be the best measure to loosen first said, "On the record, I have no idea. Off the record, I have no idea." I think that confirms it will be a political decision.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Also from today's Times. Dr Flaxman (Imperial College) discussing what would be the best measure to loosen first said, "On the record, I have no idea. Off the record, I have no idea." I think that confirms it will be a political decision.

The situation is basically that you've got a shopping list of stuff costing about £30 which represents what going fully "back to normal" would "cost" but you've only got about a tenner to spend. There are a load of loosening options, and their estimated price in terms of what they might add to R. Which ones to pick is purely a political (economic/welfare) decision. Though it's complicated by the fact that effectively all the stuff on your list is sold loose and there are no scales to check it, that tenner is in your bank account, you can't check the balance and it might actually be £8 or £12, and if you get to the checkout and have more stuff than you've got money the security guard comes and kicks you out with nothing and takes all your money too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Herd immunity would be good way to go but as you say..painful process - and I don't think one suited to a dangerous and fast-spreading virus such as this. Instead we may be heading into a year of (now well-rehearsed!) mini-lockdowns assisted with remdesivir and other anti-virals until a vaccine arrives.

Chris Whitty seems to be suggesting basically this: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

[nlogax]

Chris Whitty seems to be suggesting basically this: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Blimey - that's a good read, thanks.

 

[HH]

So we'll just have to wait and see what Boris wants. I wonder if his attitude will have been swayed by his personal experiences.

 

[leightonbd]

Blimey - that's a good read, thanks.

That article has been around for a while; the thing that caught my eye is how easy (not) it is to link steps out of lockdown to movement in R. Which is of course imprecise,but it encapsulates the challenge. Open non-essential shops with distancing: R+x. Open pubs, unrestrained: R+6x. Etc.

PS I am not saying his metrics are right but the principle of analysing the situation is.

 

[leightonbd]

Building on my prior post - I think some form of loosening to allow, say, small groups of 6-8 to have social gatherings away from other people (i e in private homes/ gardens/ flats) seems a vital next step.

This is subject to distancing on the way to/ from any gathering, though, meaning meet by walking locally or private car. Distancing more broadly, I think, will be with us (or at least, those who want it - I do) for a very long time, by compulsion or by choice. I can barely imagine taking one of Edinburgh’s excellent new buses (walking to my ex-office would take about 30 mins more than the bus, if I have to) never mind a train or a plane, for a long time.

 

[yorksrob]

Going by discussions on the radio today, the many experts think that the challenge will be getting a lot of people to leave their homes at all, rather than getting them to socially distance.

 

[HH]

Going by discussions on the radio today, the many experts think that the challenge will be getting a lot of people to leave their homes at all, rather than getting them to socially distance.

I think that is pretty definite going by recent opinion polls. However, people were split pretty evenly - around half would stay locked down whatever the policy, 40% would follow policy and 10% will carry on doing what they like. I'm not sure what that means for R (or whether opinions might change when faced with the actuality).

 

[yorksrob]

I think that is pretty definite going by recent opinion polls. However, people were split pretty evenly - around half would stay locked down whatever the policy, 40% would follow policy and 10% will carry on doing what they like. I'm not sure what that means for R (or whether opinions might change when faced with the actuality).

Presumably a lower R.