Eurostar possible expansion?

[Meerkat]

which are the best rail hubs that are in reach?
Can you get a lot of places from Geneva?
How long is it to Lyon and Marseilles (picked as all high speed)? Lyon is a major business centre and between there and Marseille covers a lot of touristy/holiday home kind of territory. With a decent luggage service there could be a market.

 

[Aictos]

Ok with Eurostar potential expansion I think this is a realistic future 'long term' timetable:

17tpd: London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
10tpd: London St Pancras International to Brussels
5tpd: London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal (up from 3 now)
7tpd: London St Pancras International to Frankfurt via Cologne
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Dortmund
6tpd: London St Pancras International to Geneva
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Barcelona
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Lisbon
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Rome
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Milan
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Marseille

I think you're wandering into the realms of fantasy here and yes I do know the purpose of this forum is for speculative ideas.

Below is a much more realistic potential timetable taking into account the ongoing merger between Eurostar and Thalys, flights and time:

Eurostar:

London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels 1tp2h
London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels 1tp2h

Seasonal Eurostar:

London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
London St Pancras International to Marseille
London St Pancras International to Bourg-Saint-Maurice

With the Amsterdam and Cologne services they would look like this:

07:00 London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels
08:00 London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels
09:00 London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels
10:00 London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels

etc....

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

I think you're wandering into the realms of fantasy here and yes I do know the purpose of this forum is for speculative ideas.

Below is a much more realistic potential timetable taking into account the ongoing merger between Eurostar and Thalys, flights and time:

Eurostar:

London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels 1tp2h
London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels 1tp2h

Seasonal Eurostar:

London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
London St Pancras International to Marseille
London St Pancras International to Bourg-Saint-Maurice

With the Amsterdam and Cologne services they would look like this:

07:00 London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels
08:00 London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels
09:00 London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels
10:00 London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels

etc....

That could work

 

[popeter45]

how many paths per Hour are available for Eurostar on HS1/the Channel tunnel?

 

[Gadget88]

I think you're wandering into the realms of fantasy here and yes I do know the purpose of this forum is for speculative ideas.

Below is a much more realistic potential timetable taking into account the ongoing merger between Eurostar and Thalys, flights and time:

Eurostar:

London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels 1tp2h
London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels 1tp2h

Seasonal Eurostar:

London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
London St Pancras International to Marseille
London St Pancras International to Bourg-Saint-Maurice

With the Amsterdam and Cologne services they would look like this:

07:00 London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels
08:00 London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels
09:00 London St Pancras International to Cologne via Brussels
10:00 London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal via Brussels

etc....

I agree Cologne is realistic I think they are more likely to extend all the way to Frankfurt though as it would be like the Eurostar terminating at Rotterdam and not Amsterdam.

People might think Rome is bonkers but we are seeing flight shambling now and people caring about the environment. There is certainly a push to travel by train these days I think it’s realistic. How long it would take it another matter. Any expansion outside Germany would surely require more platforms and more trains?

 

[Aictos]

I agree Cologne is realistic I think they are more likely to extend all the way to Frankfurt though as it would be like the Eurostar terminating at Rotterdam and not Amsterdam.

The Brussels to Frankfurt route is served by DB's ICE 79 route so if any competition was to compete with DB then it should be Thalys not Eurostar.

So if Thalys was to expand in partnership with Eurostar then I would hope that Frankfurt, Dortmund and Berlin would be served with Thalys trainsets but codesharing with Eurostar so you would buy your ticket from either and it would be valid.

 

[bspahh]

Running long distance Eurostar services needs passport control infrastructure, that won't be used much. Reducing the 12 hour gap in the current timetable between London and Brussels in both directions, between the last arrival in the evening, and the first one in the morning, will make longer journeys more attractive. It would be good to be able to finish a normal business day in a wider spread of cities, and still get home that evening.

Even if those trains are lightly loaded, they make earlier trains more attractive as an insurance policy, if you get delayed earlier on.

 

[Bald Rick]

Ok with Eurostar potential expansion I think this is a realistic future 'long term' timetable:

17tpd: London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
10tpd: London St Pancras International to Brussels
5tpd: London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal (up from 3 now)
7tpd: London St Pancras International to Frankfurt via Cologne
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Dortmund
6tpd: London St Pancras International to Geneva
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Barcelona
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Lisbon
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Rome
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Milan
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Marseille

Ha ha! Dream on.

which are the best rail hubs that are in reach?
Can you get a lot of places from Geneva?
How long is it to Lyon and Marseilles (picked as all high speed)? Lyon is a major business centre and between there and Marseille covers a lot of touristy/holiday home kind of territory. With a decent luggage service there could be a market.

Hence the current service to Lyon, Avignon and Marseille. Lyon is 4h45, Marseille 6h30 (both outbound) on the existing Eurostar with one intermediate stop at Ashford. The train stops at Lyon Part-Dieu for direct city access; if it went direct via St Exupéry it would be about 20 minutes quicker to Avignon / Marseille. Eurostar already do pretty well out of the existing train, however logistics are against further expansion; you need the train to do out and back in a day to make it work, and the timings are just about as stretched as they can be. (0719 off St P, 2200ish return back st St P). Also capacity on LGV-SE is at a premium, ie there isn’t any on Summer Friday / Saturdays (or Winter Saturdays for that matter).

Also, whilst Lyon is a big business centre, it is a big business centre for French Business. There are only 6 flights a day from the whole of the U.K. to Lyon outside Saturdays in ski season. For comparison, to Amsterdam there’s well over 60 just from London (plus another 5 to Rotterdam), and another 70 or so from the rest of the country. Amsterdam is a huge market, but realistically, Eurostar will struggle to fill more than the 5-6 trains a day planned. (Even then, 5-6 dedicated trains will have the same capacity as about 25-30 flights, and at 80% load factor would carry twice as many people by train than London - Edinburgh). The Lyon / Marseille market is just about covered by the existing service, and I can’t see that changing.

As I have posted several times recently (and @Chester1 has independently suggested) the only likely further Eurostar route expansion is:
Frankfurt via Köln
Geneva
Bordeaux summer weekends
Lyon ski season Saturdays.

I agree Cologne is realistic I think they are more likely to extend all the way to Frankfurt though as it would be like the Eurostar terminating at Rotterdam and not Amsterdam.

People might think Rome is bonkers but we are seeing flight shambling now and people caring about the environment. There is certainly a push to travel by train these days I think it’s realistic. How long it would take it another matter. Any expansion outside Germany would surely require more platforms and more trains?

Frankfurt is certainly worth considering, but Rome is absolutely bonkers. It would be at least 11-12 hours - it’s 1200 miles and there’s quite a bit of it on the conventional network through the Alps. It couldn’t possibly compete on time, frequency or price.

 

[Gadget88]

Ha ha! Dream on.




Hence the current service to Lyon, Avignon and Marseille. Lyon is 4h45, Marseille 6h30 (both outbound) on the existing Eurostar with one intermediate stop at Ashford. The train stops at Lyon Part-Dieu for direct city access; if it went direct via St Exupéry it would be about 20 minutes quicker to Avignon / Marseille. Eurostar already do pretty well out of the existing train, however logistics are against further expansion; you need the train to do out and back in a day to make it work, and the timings are just about as stretched as they can be. (0719 off St P, 2200ish return back st St P). Also capacity on LGV-SE is at a premium, ie there isn’t any on Summer Friday / Saturdays (or Winter Saturdays for that matter).

Also, whilst Lyon is a big business centre, it is a big business centre for French Business. There are only 6 flights a day from the whole of the U.K. to Lyon outside Saturdays in ski season. For comparison, to Amsterdam there’s well over 60 just from London (plus another 5 to Rotterdam), and another 70 or so from the rest of the country. Amsterdam is a huge market, but realistically, Eurostar will struggle to fill more than the 5-6 trains a day planned. (Even then, 5-6 dedicated trains will have the same capacity as about 25-30 flights, and at 80% load factor would carry twice as many people by train than London - Edinburgh). The Lyon / Marseille market is just about covered by the existing service, and I can’t see that changing.

As I have posted several times recently (and @Chester1 has independently suggested) the only likely further Eurostar route expansion is:
Frankfurt via Köln
Geneva
Bordeaux summer weekends
Lyon ski season Saturdays.



Frankfurt is certainly worth considering, but Rome is absolutely bonkers. It would be at least 11-12 hours - it’s 1200 miles and there’s quite a bit of it on the conventional network through the Alps. It couldn’t possibly compete on time, frequency or price.

I thought Paris to Milan is going down to 4 hours from 2030. That would be six hours from London that might be a viable route in the next ten years a London to Milan train?

 

[Bald Rick]

I thought Paris to Milan is going down to 4 hours from 2030. That would be six hours from London that might be a viable route in the next ten years a London to Milan train?

That relies on the Turin - Lyon ‘high speed’ line wing constructed. It’s been planned for more than 20 years, and construction is not yet committed. Just the Mont Cenis base tunnel is a 10 year job, so 2030 is very optimistic.

Also 4 hours would be non- stop; that would mean 6h30 from London as the train would have to stop for train crew.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

how many paths per Hour are available for Eurostar on HS1/the Channel tunnel?

I'm fairly certain it's four but obviously not all are used at the moment. If I remember rightly, it's generally clockface all day with some minor variations so as to fit in with Eurotunnel and the LGV Nord so looking at the times that do run it should be possible to deduce the full set in each hour.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'm fairly certain it's four but obviously not all are used at the moment. If I remember rightly, it's generally clockface all day with some minor variations so as to fit in with Eurotunnel and the LGV Nord so looking at the times that do run it should be possible to deduce the full set in each hour.

Yes effectively 4 through the tunnel, albeit as you say nowhere near all of them are used, so some are used instead for shuttles etc.

 

[popeter45]

I'm fairly certain it's four but obviously not all are used at the moment. If I remember rightly, it's generally clockface all day with some minor variations so as to fit in with Eurotunnel and the LGV Nord so looking at the times that do run it should be possible to deduce the full set in each hour.

So could work as followed?
XX.00 Paris
XX.15 east of Brussels services (e.g. Amsterdam/Frankfurt alternating with 1-2 tpd to further destinations such as Hamburg or Berlin)
XX.30 South of Paris services (Disney, Marseille etc with possible extensions to maybe even Barcelona but that's a heavily stretch)
XX.45 Brussels

 

[Peter Mugridge]

So could work as followed?
XX.00 Paris
XX.15 east of Brussels services (e.g. Amsterdam/Frankfurt alternating with 1-2 tpd to further destinations such as Hamburg or Berlin)
XX.30 South of Paris services (Disney, Marseille etc with possible extensions to maybe even Barcelona but that's a heavily stretch)
XX.45 Brussels

No, the paths aren't evenly spread; it's a 7/23/7/23 pattern. Most of the day, not all of the day.

Clockface here meaning at the same minutes past each hour, not evenly spread.

They are generally xx.24 and xx.31 ( and xx.54 and xx.01 ) off St Pancras.

 

[popeter45]

No, the paths aren't evenly spread; it's a 7/23/7/23 pattern. Most of the day, not all of the day.

Clockface here meaning at the same minutes past each hour, not evenly spread.

They are generally xx.24 and xx.31 ( and xx.54 and xx.01 ) off St Pancras.

Went with 15 minute intervals as didn't know exact timing but Point still stands of rough groupings

 

[Ianno87]

So could work as followed?
XX.00 Paris
XX.15 east of Brussels services (e.g. Amsterdam/Frankfurt alternating with 1-2 tpd to further destinations such as Hamburg or Berlin)
XX.30 South of Paris services (Disney, Marseille etc with possible extensions to maybe even Barcelona but that's a heavily stretch)
XX.45 Brussels

No, the paths aren't evenly spread; it's a 7/23/7/23 pattern. Most of the day, not all of the day.

Clockface here meaning at the same minutes past each hour, not evenly spread.

They are generally xx.24 and xx.31 ( and xx.54 and xx.01 ) off St Pancras.

Not quite. 01/31 are non-stop Paris paths, which become 54/24 when stopping at Ebbsfleet, or 52/22 when stopping at Ashford.

Likewise 04/34 for Brussels, departing 7/9 mimutes earlier when calling Ebbsfleet/Ashford.

So paths through the tunnel are 01/04/31/34 based on non-stop runs from St Pancras.

 

[Bald Rick]

So could work as followed?
XX.00 Paris
XX.15 east of Brussels services (e.g. Amsterdam/Frankfurt alternating with 1-2 tpd to further destinations such as Hamburg or Berlin)
XX.30 South of Paris services (Disney, Marseille etc with possible extensions to maybe even Barcelona but that's a heavily stretch)
XX.45 Brussels

Leaving aside the precise timings, in some hour (and on some days) both ‘Paris’ paths are used for Paris trains. However many of the ‘Brussels’ paths are spare.

 

[tasky]

Lisbon is absolutely not happening, that was the silliest thing about Shapps' speech

Rough calculations for a direct train on current tracks:

London to Paris and around LGV interconnexion 2h30
Paris - Barcelona 6h30
Barcelona - Madrid 2h30

That's 11 hours to Madrid... then currently Madrid to Lisbon is a 10 hour sleeper train. Even if a Lisbon - Madrid high-speed line got built you'd be looking at another 3 hours.

If LGV LGV Montpellier–Perpignan gets built (20 years off) and knocks an hour or so off Paris-Barcelona then services to Spain might be a possibility if people really take to long-distance international trains. Barcelona certainly. But Lisbon is just so far that unless flying is made practically illegal people won't do it.

 

[Meerkat]

Is there a significant market to Barcelona that isn’t massively price nor time sensitive?
Probably best not to get into the stag/hen party market with all the behaviour issues 6 hours on a train would cause!

 

[Aictos]

Don’t forget that Eurostar and Thalys are merging so it shouldn’t be difficult to codeshare on either other’s services in much the same way that British Airways and American Airlines sell tickets for each other’s flights using one ticket for the journey.

So someone wanting to travel London to Frankfurt could use Eurostar to Brussels and then Thalys to Frankfurt in much the same way that someone travelling Birmingham to Bedford via Bletchley can.

I think instead of expanding Eurostar, we should look at how we can make the most of the merger between Eurostar and Thalys.

 

[Bald Rick]

Don’t forget that Eurostar and Thalys are merging so it shouldn’t be difficult to codeshare on either other’s services in much the same way that British Airways and American Airlines sell tickets for each other’s flights using one ticket for the journey.

So someone wanting to travel London to Frankfurt could use Eurostar to Brussels and then Thalys to Frankfurt in much the same way that someone travelling Birmingham to Bedford via Bletchley can.

I think instead of expanding Eurostar, we should look at how we can make the most of the merger between Eurostar and Thalys.

You can already do that, have been able to for a while.

 

[kevin_roche]

Given that the Euro-skouse would have to be pathed in between the 10 min interval all stations North London Line service before a flat junction to St Pancras and the fact that most North London stations would have higher demand for a Paris service that Liverpool Euro-Skouse International anyway I suggest the following calling pattern Liverpool Euroskouse International to London Old Oak Common International, London Queens Park International, London Kensal Green international, London Kensal Rise International, London Brondesbury Park International, london Brondesbury International, London West Hampstead International, London Finchley Rd & Frognal International, London Hampstead heath International, London Gospel Oak International, London Kentish Town West International, London Cambden town International, London St Pancras International, Stratford Int, Ebbsfleet International, Ashford international and Paris North.
Contactless and Oyster would be available between OOC and Stratford at an enhanced rate but the use of stations with ticket barriers might discourage domestic traffic from Liverpool anyway??

Mornington Crescent!

 

[DJ_K666]

Could always use Cologne Messe. Also they wouldn’t have to set down for one hour 5 mins like Lille as they would either go Thalys route to Dortmund or expand to Frankfurt. Frankfurt would be the end destination?

I'd want London to Hamburg as there's a very popular music festival about 2 hours from there and I'd prefer not to have to fly.

 

[Aictos]

I'd want London to Hamburg as there's a very popular music festival about 2 hours from there and I'd prefer not to have to fly.

I would prefer Dortmund for its ease of access to the North Rhine-Westphalia area including Düsseldorf, Bonn and Cologne.

Be direct from London or change at Brussels.

 

[Chester1]

If LGV LGV Montpellier–Perpignan gets built (20 years off) and knocks an hour or so off Paris-Barcelona then services to Spain might be a possibility if people really take to long-distance international trains. Barcelona certainly. But Lisbon is just so far that unless flying is made practically illegal people won't do it.

I was thinking this. London - Barcelona today would be about 9 hours with limited stops (Lille, Lyon, Montpellier) and an extra hour needed at Lille on return journey. Marseille works because a return journey takes 15 hours (approximately 7am to 10pm). Even when the whole route is high speed it would be difficult to timetable a return journey in a day at times that would appeal to passengers. The possibility of running to Millan is similar. If the proposed lines are built then seasonal services are possible but would never be important.

I think there needs to be distinction made between regular Eurostar services and seasonal specials. Its one thing to launch summer services to somewhere like Bordeaux, Disneyland, Alps and another to try to run a service multiple times each day. The Amsterdam service is a big deal because its the only significant new service since launch. Seasonal services are of marginal importance to the business.

 

[BigCj34]

Lisbon is absolutely not happening, that was the silliest thing about Shapps' speech

Rough calculations for a direct train on current tracks:

London to Paris and around LGV interconnexion 2h30
Paris - Barcelona 6h30
Barcelona - Madrid 2h30

That's 11 hours to Madrid... then currently Madrid to Lisbon is a 10 hour sleeper train. Even if a Lisbon - Madrid high-speed line got built you'd be looking at another 3 hours.

If LGV LGV Montpellier–Perpignan gets built (20 years off) and knocks an hour or so off Paris-Barcelona then services to Spain might be a possibility if people really take to long-distance international trains. Barcelona certainly. But Lisbon is just so far that unless flying is made practically illegal people won't do it.

Paris - Madrid will be soon possible at a quicker rate via Bordeaux and Hendaye, due to high speed works taking place in Basque country, at 7h25 and would go down to 6h05 should an LGV be built on the French side as well. That would still be 8h30 to 9 hours from London to Madrid however, so any London - Spain service could only compete as a sleeper. Once infill high speed works take place between Montpellier and Perpignan that would bring the 6h30 Paris - Barcelona journey down to 5h30, so a London Barcelona link could take around 8h to 8h30.

As you say, add 3 hours for any trip to Lisbon if that gets a high speed link.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

So paths through the tunnel are 01/04/31/34 based on non-stop runs from St Pancras.

Can I just check that these are the only hourly paths currently available through the tunnel, or are there others which are in place but never used?

 

[StephenHunter]

Frankfurt makes more sense than Cologne as it is a terminus station, although you might need some rebuilding for passport controls.

As another related idea, what about a NightJet service to Vienna?

 

[tasky]

One thing that would be very handy for passengers from London but will never happen would be a Paris Hauptbahnhof making interchange between all the LGVs in Paris easier. A single change for a service to somewhere like Geneva would be a much more enticing prospect even without direct trains if it didn't involve an RER trip (even if in practice this is usually fine). Lille is OK for some destinations but there isn't the same variety.

Relatively sensible interchange at Brussels Midi, for all its faults, is one of the reasons why catching a train to destinations in Germany is a much more attractive prospect than to destinations where interchange at Paris is required, despite faster and more comprehensive LGVs from Paris than into Germany.

It reminds me of something that we probably don't acknowledge enough – that Belgium is a very good neighbour when it comes to railways! A country that size could have easily said they didn't need high speed lines, which would have made things a lot more difficult for passengers from London, but fortunately it provides a great transit corridor for passengers going to the Netherlands and Germany.

 

[30907]

Can I just check that these are the only hourly paths currently available through the tunnel, or are there others which are in place but never used?

These are the only paths allocated to passenger trains.