Eurostar possible expansion?

[EAD]

This isn't a Brexit thread. I can see that there's some overlap but we don't need to hash out the arguments that are general to Brexit rather than specifically any which apply to Eurostar. Please ensure that you keep to the topic thank you.

Respectfully, and I appreciate of course the mod comment is general of course, my specific response was to assist where it had already drifted and was providing clarification which is of relevance to current UK border entry requirements and so Eurostar too rather than B. in general.

I agree that we collectively need to row back towards the topic on which it is very simple IMHO:

1) further expansion will be very limited given the requirements for traffic entering the UK via the tunnel to have been security screened in a sterile area and Border Force not been overly keen I understand on further staff being at juxtaposed posts - that of course buts up against the UK desire to have juxtaposed checks in the first place.
2) Even if there is demand/a will, the issues at 1 cause significant issues at stations within Schengen e.g. can you build the infrastructure, how much capacity do you lose etc. Look how long it has taken with Amsterdam/Rotterdam. If you are looking at only a train a day you get the Lille shuffle issue absent building quite significant infrastructure for very little gain, even if we all would love these connections here on a Rail Forum.

 

[Aictos]

How many paths are available between London and Brussels including HS1 and Channel Tunnel bearing in mind they have to fit in with the existing services.

 

[AY1975]

This isn't a Brexit thread. I can see that there's some overlap but we don't need to hash out the arguments that are general to Brexit rather than specifically any which apply to Eurostar. Please ensure that you keep to the topic thank you.

Yes, I did realise that, but the comment that I wanted to reply to just happened to be in this thread. I did include a link to a more relevant thread.

However, I have just discovered that you can copy a quote from one thread and then paste it in another thread that is more relevant to what the quote was about and then reply to it there (with a note of which thread you copied it from). I will do that in future if you prefer.

 

[Ianno87]

How many paths are available between London and Brussels including HS1 and Channel Tunnel bearing in mind they have to fit in with the existing services.

Nominally two standard paths per hour. Running non-stop to Lille these correspond to xx04 and xx34 departures from St Pancras.

 

[Aictos]

Nominally two standard paths per hour. Running non-stop to Lille these correspond to xx04 and xx34 departures from St Pancras.

Can those paths be used for any potential new international services or fo they need to be left as they are to provide some leeway with the timetable?

 

[Ianno87]

Can those paths be used for any potential new international services or fo they need to be left as they are to provide some leeway with the timetable?

If there's a path, in theory it can be used.

 

[MontyP]

The obvious target destinations are Cologne / Frankfurt, Lyon and Geneva. Possibly Zurich. This would open up a huge number of single-change destinations without having to cross Paris. Demand on weekends for leisure destinations like Barcelona would probably also work, like the summer service to Avignon and the winter ski services. Beyond that the focus should be on sleeper services, this is the only way to compete on journey times. Not many people would take a train for 7-8 hours when a flight is less than 2.

 

[Bald Rick]

The obvious target destinations are Cologne / Frankfurt, Lyon and Geneva. Possibly Zurich. This would open up a huge number of single-change destinations without having to cross Paris. Demand on weekends for leisure destinations like Barcelona would probably also work, like the summer service to Avignon and the winter ski services. Beyond that the focus should be on sleeper services, this is the only way to compete on journey times. Not many people would take a train for 7-8 hours when a flight is less than 2.

Almost exactly as I wrote in post#28. Except that there is no chance of sleeper services.no one is going to want to spend upwards of £300 on a sleeper when the flight is less than £30.

 

[Birkonian]

Almost exactly as I wrote in post#28. Except that there is no chance of sleeper services.no one is going to want to spend upwards of £300 on a sleeper when the flight is less than £30.

Not totally true. Many people won't fly/don't like flying - like me.

 

[cle]

Swap Bordeaux with Barcelona, and it's within 5 hours. Much more compelling (and so many second home owners).

 

[MontyP]

Almost exactly as I wrote in post#28. Except that there is no chance of sleeper services.no one is going to want to spend upwards of £300 on a sleeper when the flight is less than £30.

Not quite a fair comparison as a sleeper saves the cost of a hotel.
For example, picking Brussels to Vienna.
On Thu 5th Mar, an evening direct flight is around £130 (1905 with Brussels Airlines).
A 3-star hotel in central Vienna is around £70 (Holiday Inn or Radisson Blu).
One-way on the Nighjet sleeper is around £240.

 

[RT4038]

Not quite a fair comparison as a sleeper saves the cost of a hotel.
For example, picking Brussels to Vienna.
On Thu 5th Mar, an evening direct flight is around £130 (1905 with Brussels Airlines).
A 3-star hotel in central Vienna is around £70 (Holiday Inn or Radisson Blu).
One-way on the Nighjet sleeper is around £240.

So the air/hotel option wins hands down for most people. Cheaper, and a far better nights sleep (much bigger room, en-suite facilities, consistent service, not swaying and bouncing about/grinding to a stop etc etc.) And I love sleeping car journeys, but I am also realistic as to how they really are!

 

[RT4038]

Airline checks on their pax who have to adhere to specific rules on entry are common-like wanting to see a visa if the destination wants you to have one. They cannot check as thoroughly, nor even have the equipment to do that, as the real borderforcepeople have to do. I kindof think sprunt does not quite understand what borderchecks mean in fact nor all their consequences.
For me (a dutch continental) this is all just daydreaming. As long as the Uk is so afraid to join anything like Schengen or is paranoid about all those hapless souls in FR wanting to cross over the Channel, nothing will come of it. IF your Uk will start asking that EU-pax cannot enter on their ID anymore but must have full passprts (yuck, another thing we dont have so cannot understand? nor want) this will lead to a dramatic fall in people popping over-its not just for the pleasure of Brits that these trains run, they would not be viable at all if so. Having just for the pleasure of a few Brits large parts of stations fenced off and having British staff to man there the checks-it happens nowhere in this world.
The very best for now possibly way to a merger of the 2 will be to make more and more easy direct changes in Lille or BRussel with Thalys and/or TGV=OUI/SNCF on the Lille method-checks there before boarding the UK sterilised train. One could even look at how the Russians do that on the many trains that enter their giant country. (oh, would you even like to be compared to that?
BTW-just on another forum I read someone proposing new and more trains from LON to BRU-airport, which is underused, as a way to relieve overcrowding at Heathrow.

Are there lots of third world economic refugees trying to get into Russia? No. If you look around the world there are actually relatively few cross border train services [outside of 'Common Travel Area / Schengen Zone type arrangements] - there are indeed few into the Schengen Zone, and all bar one of these are from former USSR countries which are not on refugee routes for obvious reasons. The other is the daily Istanbul-Bulgaria train - try getting a nights sleep on that at he border crossing (impossible due to immigration checks whilst standing for hours at the border station].
There are no cross border trains in South or Central America. The few in North America are Canada/USA, not known as a economic refugee route. There are about 3 in Africa, none of them remotely comparable to Eurostar. This leaves Asia, which has actually very few, and all a major rigmarole and delay at the borders. I think none of these have seemless journeys across the border, for all the obvious and well known reasons.
The juxta-positioning of Border Controls at Eurostar stations may well be unique, but is a remarkably effective alternative to running no cross border services at all, or massive delays at borders, which is the de facto position elsewhere in the world.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not quite a fair comparison as a sleeper saves the cost of a hotel.
For example, picking Brussels to Vienna.
On Thu 5th Mar, an evening direct flight is around £130 (1905 with Brussels Airlines).
A 3-star hotel in central Vienna is around £70 (Holiday Inn or Radisson Blu).
One-way on the Nighjet sleeper is around £240.

But for 99% of the population, the hotel is part of the experience. Arriving in a city early in the morning, having had a poor night’s sleep, is not.

Besides, we are talking sbout sleepers through the channel tunnel. Leaving aside the issue of pathing (HS1 wouldn’t be too keen on 100mph trains, and the LGVs in France all close before 2300); London to, say, Frankfurt would be a minimum of 10 hours, what with stops for crew, pathing, loco changes, etc.

Let’s not forget that the Caledonian Sleeper operation costs around £300 per passenger, and that includes all those in the seats and using it as a day train. If we just used the sleeper passengers, it would be nearer £400. Add in the tunnel toll etc, and it’s clear it would need massive subsidy to be remotely attractive for passengers. It’s not going to happen.

 

[Chester1]

I stand corrected, I cant really see any reason to change that then. I know in the UK my driving license is linked to my passport anyway in fact it uses the passport photo.

Just to point out that it will likely change if the Home Office gets its way as it is not a fan of ID cards and want's everything to be scan-able with chips [well Border Force does ideally]. Anecdotally, some of my EEA citizen friends have had some pretty daft discussions at the UK border when re-entering as per usual on their ID card in the last couple of years (they live and work here), whereby they have been told they should use their passport next time although there is no obligation on the individual to do so [probably in sum because it is easier for the officer in terms of scan and capture against records].

On the passport - drivers licence link, that is basically a money saving idea when you request a new one to be issued - if you have valid passport you can tick to pull through that image to the new driving licence. They are not "linked" other than that and indeed a driving licence is not full valid ID in the same sense as government issued ID card is [within the UK it in essence is, but outwith it is not other than for driving, though practically it will be accepted if all that is needed is proof of name/address etc.]

The most similar thing in the UK to most EU national ID cards are Biometric Residence Permits. These are issued to non EU immigrants. They are essentially the ID cards that the Labour government tried to introduce for Brits but that the Coalition government scrapped. Most EU countries ID cards contain the same sort of data as passports but some are more comparable to driving licences. I suspect the government will offer to accept them again once there are EU minimum standards of data and security for the cards.

Banning use of EU ID cards to enter the UK will effect all forms of transport and will discourage people visiting the UK but it will make it much to enter the UK with a forged document. I suspect that Eurostars non British customers are more likely to have passports than those of budget airlines. Business travelers and better off passengers are more likely to occasionally travel out of the EU and therefore will need a passport. The cost of a passport is a relatively low proportion of a single holiday. All British passengers use passports and are therefore unaffected. Eurostar has clearly assessed next year's requirement of a passport to be a minor problem. If they thought it would significantly reduce demand they wouldn't be intending to launch a fourth service this year and a fifth service next year.

Geneva would have a good balance of business and tourist traffic compared with Frankfurt or Bordeaux. Frankfurt's advantage is that it would be an extension of services that start or terminate at Brussels but timings would be a problem. If the first Brussels Eurostar (6:47am) was extended it wouldnt arrive in Frankfurt until nearly midday. The 5pm departure from London would be good but its used by the Amsterdam service. Perhaps 2 small sets splitting and joining at Brussels? Something like 6am, 11:30am and 5pm departures from both London and Frankfurt might work.

 

[Giugiaro]

Lisbon will be an interesting challenge - a variable-gauge Eurostar?

Lisbon would be trickier, but I suspect that someone at the Daily Heil has misread a press-release.

There was no press-release misreading as the same detail was caught in Portuguese media.

Though someone should tell Eurostar that Portugal has no quality connections between Lisbon and Spain.
It currently takes 10 hours to get from Lisbon to the French border in Hendaye. No way are they going to manage a 10-hour connection from Lisbon to London, not at least in the next 20 years!!!

 

[davetheguard]

There was no press-release misreading as the same detail was caught in Portuguese media.

Though someone should tell Eurostar that Portugal has no quality connections between Lisbon and Spain.
It currently takes 10 hours to get from Lisbon to the French border in Hendaye. No way are they going to manage a 10-hour connection from Lisbon to London, not at least in the next 20 years!!!

I don't think this is about Eurostar getting it wrong. This is all about a British Transport Secretary (or his DfT advisors) who doesn't appear to be on top of his job.

 

[EAD]

The most similar thing in the UK to most EU national ID cards are Biometric Residence Permits. These are issued to non EU immigrants. They are essentially the ID cards that the Labour government tried to introduce for Brits but that the Coalition government scrapped. Most EU countries ID cards contain the same sort of data as passports but some are more comparable to driving licences. I suspect the government will offer to accept them again once there are EU minimum standards of data and security for the cards.

I would not say current EU ID cards are the same as the biometric cards HO issue to non-EU citizens at present, but I fully understand why you reference it for context. There is of course the move made a decade ago to the credit card sized ID card with similar standards and chip, but as you touch on there is a move by EU Council ministers to revamp the existing standards (appearance is as now open) to pull through full ICAO machine readable and fingerprint data standards in line with passports from 2021 [NB interestingly the UK as a Member State had an opt out on fingerprints in passports]. At present it varies somewhat as to what is on the chip I agree so you get similar but not always same data as passports.

This is part of a drive to improve them when you realise some countries issue certain citizens paper ones still if done via the consulate with no machine readable qualities (e.g. Italy) and according to articles I have read the Commission estimates 80M ID cards in use currently do not have biometrics on them (in many cases they will simply be old).

I agree that in future you could easily agree that if ICAO standards akin to passports are on then you should be able to accept ID cards, but let's see.

Anyhow we are getting a long way off potential routes for Eurostar - I don't think border entry requirements are a big issue in that conundrum. The bigger problem that is always present is the requirement for full security checks/sterile areas and desire for conducting passport checks on the ground pre boarding. Those combined make expansion difficult and very much subject to UK state cooperation unless you want to turf everyone out at Lille and do the security shuffle, in which case you defeat the object of a direct service and may as well work on good connections which in many cases already exist.

I do think many of us active in this thread have become slightly blinkered by what we have come to accept as the current normal, namely UK being completely against document checks on the move (this was not the case at the start of EST services) and Schengen travel removing checks (other than "temporary" reintroduction). Pre-Schengen you would get checks on train in motion (on a night train in sleepers you handed you passport over to staff so they could avoid you being disturbed unless border staff wanted to see you) and where relevant at border stations you had barriers and custom points too. As someone who travelled a lot as a child at that time I recall it and e.g. queues for borders that now simply do not exist. It is impressive to think of what has gone - a recent example is with Switzerland joining Schengen and its more streamlined approach to individual border customers. Somewhere like Konstanz, Buchs or Basel has changed a lot with no more passport controls and walk through custom posts. Of course plenty of spot checks are done. I used to live in Konstanz so popping over the border to arbitrage pricing on purchases was a weekly event.

An interesting thread, but I suspect EST will focus on in-fill using existing infrastructure and consolidation for the next few years no matter what the slightly odd soundings of a minister have been interpreted to mean.

 

[Gadget88]

So what sort of platforms and customs area would there be in Frankfurt? It’s quite a large station so I guess it’s possible?

 

[Chester1]

So what sort of platforms and customs area would there be in Frankfurt? It’s quite a large station so I guess it’s possible?

Hard for non government people to be sure, but approximately what is at Amsterdam i.e. a small version of the facilities at St Pancras. Its not the primary issue, which is demand. Its 1 hour 50 minutes and then 3 hours 2 minutes on the fastest services. Its realistically a 5 hour through journey and most people will choose to fly. There would be a modal shift for London - Cologne but its a smaller market. They would probably need to fill 3 half sized Eurostar units each day. Thats about 1350 seats or 7 or 8 320 family or 737 jets. It wouldn't be easy and Geneva would have a similar journey time but appeals to both business travelers and tourists.

The next stage after Amsterdam going up to 5 direct services each way next year (and saturating the market) should be proper through ticketing if the merger with Thalys goes ahead. It would encourage people who want to avoid flying to do so, but without the cost of introducing new services.

Bordeaux could work but as a seasonal service like Marseille, running between once a week and daily. It would be nearly empty in winter!

 

[GingerSte]

Is there really much advantage to having temporary mobile border control at Liege when Brussels is not that far away, all trains have to pass through, and most likely any extra staff would just be taken from those stationed at Brussels?

Some advantages...

• A slicker / more seamless service - passengers would be on board and able to relax at Liege without having to change trains at Brussels. Changing trains is certainly something that puts people off, and changing at big stations scares some people. Many people will be camping, and have luggage so the fewer connections the better.
• Less worrying about late trains and connections. As the service(s) would be tied to the event, if the event runs late, then the service(s) can more easily be held to suit.
• Overcrowding - there's only so much space at Brussels, and big sport comes with big crowds for a short length of time. Better to do that in a marquee next to Guillemins station than block the concourse at Midi? I suspect that if you had all the border staff working at once, you wouldn't have spaces to put them all, too! This also keeps Midi at a more constant level (I don't want to say quiet or quick) for the regular travellers.
• Improved ability for E* to provide (and advertise) packages: train + transfer coach + GP ticket.
• For E*: a bigger share of the profits, and a potential market to be served. Wikipedia quotes a capacity of 70,000 at that circuit, one percent of which will almost completely fill a class 374.

 

[Gadget88]

Hard for non government people to be sure, but approximately what is at Amsterdam i.e. a small version of the facilities at St Pancras. Its not the primary issue, which is demand. Its 1 hour 50 minutes and then 3 hours 2 minutes on the fastest services. Its realistically a 5 hour through journey and most people will choose to fly. There would be a modal shift for London - Cologne but its a smaller market. They would probably need to fill 3 half sized Eurostar units each day. Thats about 1350 seats or 7 or 8 320 family or 737 jets. It wouldn't be easy and Geneva would have a similar journey time but appeals to both business travelers and tourists.

The next stage after Amsterdam going up to 5 direct services each way next year (and saturating the market) should be proper through ticketing if the merger with Thalys goes ahead. It would encourage people who want to avoid flying to do so, but without the cost of introducing new services.

Bordeaux could work but as a seasonal service like Marseille, running between once a week and daily. It would be nearly empty in winter!

There seems to be a snobbery about changing trains I noticed this with the Amsterdam service so perhaps a direct route would be popular. I am sure the newspapers reported doing Frankfurt in under 5 hours perhaps if they miss out a few stops it would be possible?

 

[Ianno87]

Hard for non government people to be sure, but approximately what is at Amsterdam i.e. a small version of the facilities at St Pancras. Its not the primary issue, which is demand. Its 1 hour 50 minutes and then 3 hours 2 minutes on the fastest services. Its realistically a 5 hour through journey and most people will choose to fly. There would be a modal shift for London - Cologne but its a smaller market. They would probably need to fill 3 half sized Eurostar units each day. Thats about 1350 seats or 7 or 8 320 family or 737 jets. It wouldn't be easy and Geneva would have a similar journey time but appeals to both business travelers and tourists.

I wonder if a Frankfurt service timed to suit business travellers commuting for a week might work - i.e. a trip each way on a Monday morning and again on a Thursday/Friday. Timed so business users can work on it as part of their working day each way.

 

[Chester1]

There seems to be a snobbery about changing trains I noticed this with the Amsterdam service so perhaps a direct route would be popular. I am sure the newspapers reported doing Frankfurt in under 5 hours perhaps if they miss out a few stops it would be possible?

Those times I quoted are for the fast current services. Some London - Brussels services take 2 hours 10 minutes. Presuming removal of 4 stops between Brussels and Frankfurt there could be further reductions. However to allow intermediate journeys between Frankfurt and Brussels it would need a long stop in Brussels (As Eurostar Amsterdam to London services will have). "Under 5 hours" means something like 4 hours 40 minutes eastbound and 4 hours 55 minutes westbound (i.e. 45 minutes longer than the east and westbound Amsterdam services).

I wonder if a Frankfurt service timed to suit business travellers commuting for a week might work - i.e. a trip each way on a Monday morning and again on a Thursday/Friday. Timed so business users can work on it as part of their working day each way.

How many business travels stay for a whole week? I don't know! You are right about business travel and the working day, 5 hours on Eurostar would be more productive than the current flight time. Scotland to London flows show that its not always the most important factor. 5 hours is a bit too long. Amsterdam services have been a huge success and show that 4 hours journeys can compete but there aren't other viable terminals within 4 hours of London. Cologne would work if there was political will to indirectly subsidise the service. Paris and London are terminal stations and there aren't any UK cities with very large flight numbers to Brussels or Paris or French cities to London.

 

[GingerSte]

There seems to be a snobbery about changing trains I noticed this with the Amsterdam service so perhaps a direct route would be popular. I am sure the newspapers reported doing Frankfurt in under 5 hours perhaps if they miss out a few stops it would be possible?

I don't think it's a snobbery, as such. There are lots of reasons why people don't like changing trains if they don't have to.

• The risk of not making a connection is top of my list. The 15 minute change at Brussels leaves me anxious until I'm on that Brussels to Cologne train. Yes, I could get an earlier E* but that definitely costs me time.
• I have been getting trains for years. I know my way around the average station, and how they "work". The idea of changing at a big station (especially when you don't speak the lingo) and ending up on the wrong train is a legitimate concern for people who haven't done it before. Until you've tried it, you just don't know!
• When I travel I only take what I can carry. I can do that. Some people don't have that luxury. Maybe they can't carry much. You might say that you should only take what you can carry, but that to me ignores how the world works. Airlines kindly take your (hold) luggage at the beginning of your time with them (when you may have help from your family/friends, and give you it back at the end (when you may have help from whoever). For various reasons, train operating companies don't do that.

 

[tasky]

One thing I've wondered recently is why Eurostar doesn't bother selling through tickets to Luxembourg. They almost do - an any Belgian station ticket will take you to Arlon, but you need to buy a further single stop extension. I'm sure Luxembourg isn't a huge destination, but there is some business there (for tax purposes, usually), and it is only one change by train and there are a good 20+ flights a day from London. I suppose they haven't bothered because the Brussels–Luxembourg line is quite slow, but it wouldn't cost them much and could drive ridership with a bit of publicity.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Ok with Eurostar potential expansion I think this is a realistic future 'long term' timetable:

17tpd: London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
10tpd: London St Pancras International to Brussels
5tpd: London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal (up from 3 now)
7tpd: London St Pancras International to Frankfurt via Cologne
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Dortmund
6tpd: London St Pancras International to Geneva
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Barcelona
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Lisbon
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Rome
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Milan
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Marseille

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

It'll be good to see a range of european countries on the departure board of London St Pancras. One side is trains to Sheffield, Nottingham, Corby the other is Bedford, Peterborough, Sevenoaks, Sutton, Brighton, East Grinsted and in the middle is trains to Brussels, Lisbon, Barcelona, Frankfurt, Rome, Milan, Marseille, Geneva, Dortmund etc

 

[ainsworth74]

Ok with Eurostar potential expansion I think this is a realistic future 'long term' timetable:

Realistic?! In what universe!?!

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Ok with Eurostar potential expansion I think this is a realistic future 'long term' timetable:

17tpd: London St Pancras International to Paris Gare du Nord
10tpd: London St Pancras International to Brussels
5tpd: London St Pancras International to Amsterdam Centraal (up from 3 now)
7tpd: London St Pancras International to Frankfurt via Cologne
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Dortmund
6tpd: London St Pancras International to Geneva
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Barcelona
3tpd: London St Pancras International to Lisbon
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Rome
4tpd: London St Pancras International to Bordeaux
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Milan
2tpd: London St Pancras International to Marseille

to be honest this doesn’t look remotely realistic at all.