England's new three-tier lockdown system

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think the country can afford to do it again, which is why this regional tier ideas have come into play.

That may well be true - I was more referring to this being done in the tier 3 areas, which aren't actually that big.

 

[Y Ddraig Coch]

That may well be true - I was more referring to this being done in the tier 3 areas, which aren't actually that big.

At the moment, but if it turns into Liverpool, Manchester, Lancashire, London and Essex as expected then all of a sudden its a huge number.

 

[hwl]

I don't think it will, to be honest, because people will mostly just ignore it, and as SAGE said pubs aren't that significant.

all it should need to get R down to ~1 is to reduce the daily spread rate increase from the current 5-9% range in various regions the UK down to 0% i.e. some marginal changes so 1 in 11 to 1 in 20 transmissions doesn't happen. Hence pubs etc could help do that. Retail split by essential and non essential (as per earlier in the year) couldn't make that difference on their own it would need both.

Part of the issue is that the UK doesn't do forward and backward tracing in the community just forward hence we have a comparatively poor understanding of the impact of locations outside medical locations (that do have forward and backward tracing). Another world class Track and Trace failure...

 

[Carlisle]

Jordan is trialling 2 days locked down 5 days more open to see how that reduces the transmission rate. Not sure that it will be more than minimally effective but possibly worth a try to see if a lower economic impact strategy can work?

I believe Turkey & Israel tried something similar,, it clearly didn’t work in Israel as they’re still in full lockdown

 

[DB]

I believe Turkey & Israel tried something similar,, it clearly didn’t work in Israel as they’re still in full lockdown

Well, seriously, why would it? People will just be going out doing what they do on two fewer days, potentially leading to more people out on the other five and hence more opportunities for it to spread.

 

[Bantamzen]

Sadly, people in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia are laughing their heads off at comments like this.
They have stopped the virus in its tracks completely, while it seems that only viable way left in UK is herd immunity (i.e. let everyone catch it, and hope not too many die), and we cannot even wait for stage 3 vaccine test results, which should be available in a month or so. Russia has already authorised 2 vaccines.
This is a real eye opener to "western democracy and freedom".

Except they aren't, they are all finding that no matter what measures they take, the virus stubbornly carries on bubbling under. And countries like New Zealand have the small problem of working out how to open the doors again.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Except they aren't, they are all finding that no matter what measures they take, the virus stubbornly carries on bubbling under. And countries like New Zealand have the small problem of working out how to open the doors again.

Far, far less of a problem than the one we face.

 

[DB]

Far, far less of a problem than the one we face.

But yet again, what's the exit strategy?

 

[Ianno87]

Far, far less of a problem than the one we face.

It will be when they, eventually, have to accept reopening and letting the virus in when the world hasn't suppressed it.

 

[HSTEd]

Sadly, people in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia are laughing their heads off at comments like this.
They have stopped the virus in its tracks completely, while it seems that only viable way left in UK is herd immunity (i.e. let everyone catch it, and hope not too many die), and we cannot even wait for stage 3 vaccine test results, which should be available in a month or so. Russia has already authorised 2 vaccines.
This is a real eye opener to "western democracy and freedom".

Australia and New Zealand are unusual given their extremely isolated position.
Indeed they never even had endemic smallpox!

As to the others, if you think living in Britain with coronavirus killing some people isn't better than living in a totalitarian dictatorship where you have no value except as a tool of the state....... I think you are somewhat naive.
To quote the old saying "Freedom isn't free"

As to the vaccines.... do you think hundreds of millions of doses will just magically appear when the regulator signs a bit of paper?
Even the people pushing the vaccination solution admit that it wont be plausible to mass vaccinate before 2022.......

If we could have a vaccine on the same basis of China or Russia we would have had one by July!

 

[bramling]

It will be when they, eventually, have to accept reopening and letting the virus in when the world hasn't suppressed it.

Their strategy entirely hinges on a vaccine appearing. If one does then it will have been seen to be a roaring success. If not...

High stakes.

 

[philosopher]

Sadly, people in China, Taiwan, Singapore, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia are laughing their heads off at comments like this.
They have stopped the virus in its tracks completely, while it seems that only viable way left in UK is herd immunity (i.e. let everyone catch it, and hope not too many die), and we cannot even wait for stage 3 vaccine test results, which should be available in a month or so. Russia has already authorised 2 vaccines.
This is a real eye opener to "western democracy and freedom".

New Zealand and Australia are remote islands or island continent nations with low population densities. They can quarantine new arrivals very easily as the few arrivals will come in by plane or through cargo ships and it probably easier to do social distancing in those countries. China, Singapore, Vietnam have quite, or in the case of China very authoritarian governments where the population do very much what they are told making things like lockdowns and contact tracing far more effective. Taiwan and South Korea had both set up really good but somewhat invasive contact tracing systems in the aftermath of SARS and MERS.

The UK and most of Europe do not have these features that make controlling it easier.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But yet again, what's the exit strategy?

As things stand it's a vaccine. If that changes, such as it being proven that one won't work, then the issue needs to be re-debated.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Oct 2020 ==

It will be when they, eventually, have to accept reopening and letting the virus in when the world hasn't suppressed it.

Or, assuming a vaccine is possible, which I believe it will be, they reopen on the condition of having had it.

 

[takno]

Khan was just on the news and he seemed surprisingly muted.

He was probably bluffing, confident that the government wouldn't put any restrictions on London. Either that or he's accidentally met some ordinary Londoners and they've explained in detail just how keen they are

 

[Bantamzen]

Far, far less of a problem than the one we face.

You mean the growing economic problem that the IMF predicts that could throw 150-500 million people around the globe into poverty? Yeah, then I agree.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You mean the growing economic problem that the IMF predicts that could throw 150-500 million people around the globe into poverty? Yeah, then I agree.

I certainly agree that our economy would overall be doing better with closed borders but fewer domestic restrictions, yes.

 

[Howardh]

An interesting question is whether 2 weeks on, 4 weeks off would be better than continuous lower-level but still restrictive measures.

One of the many reasons this really needs to be debated properly by Parliament.

I think that would work as long as the schools/colleges were out during lockdown, so their terms would have to be re-alligned, or in some way work around the holidays and half-terms (shorten longer holidays and lengthen half-terms). In fact, it might be the only way we get through 2021.

But there's no point having lockdown if some parts remained open..spreading it when we're supposed not to.

 

[Ianno87]

I certainly agree that our economy would overall be doing better with closed borders but fewer domestic restrictions, yes.

That ship sailed a looooooong time ago!

 

[brad465]

All at lower latitudes with more sun and warmer which is less good for the virus.
Slightly cooler climates may have far more issues in the winter with the virus.

Generally true except for New Zealand which is antipodal to Spain, and we know how things have gone there so the climate argument won't apply for the former's handling of it.

New Zealand and Australia are remote islands or island continent nations with low population densities. They can quarantine new arrivals very easily as the few arrivals will come in by plane or through cargo ships and it probably easier to do social distancing in those countries.

The remote islands argument makes sense but average population density doesn't make sense when, like most countries, they still have densely populated cities (New Zealand's 2nd flareup was centred around Auckland and its 1.66m population). Furthermore things haven't exactly gone well in Victoria.

 

[big_rig]

Except they aren't, they are all finding that no matter what measures they take, the virus stubbornly carries on bubbling under. And countries like New Zealand have the small problem of working out how to open the doors again.

It is even worse than that. Did you know that you are not even allowed to leave Australia under your own free will? Let alone allowing people in, they will not let them out. They envisage this lasting until late 2022 Even travel between Australian stated is banned and Victoria has been under a stricter lockdown than the UK for months. Masks are mandatory at all times outside your home and this is when they have a handful of cases a day! The Victorian health department even has a section of their website dedicated to advising on how many times you dog can wee outside (and notes this task should be undertaken as part of your once-daily outside excursion).

If you are an Australian citizen or a permanent resident you cannot leave Australia due to COVID-19 restrictions unless you have an exemption.

Department of Home Affairs Website

Home Affairs brings together Australia's federal law enforcement, national and transport security, criminal justice, emergency management, multicultural affairs, settlement services and immigration and border-related functions, working together to keep Australia safe.

covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au

 

[Bantamzen]

I certainly agree that our economy would overall be doing better with closed borders but fewer domestic restrictions, yes.

Well so much for altruism eh? So long as good old Blighty is OK, stuff the rest? It might have worked a couple of hundred years ago, but you know time moved on.

 

[Bikeman78]

It is even worse than that. Did you know that you are not even allowed to leave Australia under your own free will? Let alone allowing people in, they will not let them out. They envisage this lasting until late 2022 Even travel between Australian stated is banned and Victoria has been under a stricter lockdown than the UK for months. Masks are mandatory at all times outside your home and this is when they have a handful of cases a day! The Victorian health department even has a section of their website dedicated to advising on how many times you dog can wee outside (and notes this task should be undertaken as part of your once-daily outside excursion).

Department of Home Affairs Website

Home Affairs brings together Australia's federal law enforcement, national and transport security, criminal justice, emergency management, multicultural affairs, settlement services and immigration and border-related functions, working together to keep Australia safe.

covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au

Wow. That sounds grim. Fortunately I have almost zero interest in going there.

 

[MikeWM]

It is even worse than that. Did you know that you are not even allowed to leave Australia under your own free will? Let alone allowing people in, they will not let them out.

Indeed - I know a friend-of-a-friend who married an Australian only last year. Don't know how they ended up in this situation, but now he's in the UK and she's stuck in Victoria, with no idea when they'll be able to see either other again. (Apparently, even though there may be theoretical exemptions for this sort of situation, it is basically impossible to get anyone to issue one).

 

[Swanny200]

Jeez, but yet Adam Hills of last leg fame tweeted that he has swapped his Melbourne lockdown for a London one, with his new show due to start I think tomorrow night, I find it hard to fathom why he would leave his wife and two kids behind there and get an exemption to leave Australia in order to present a show on channel 4, during lockdown they managed to do it via videolink, he also tweeted that 2 people in his street had sadly passed from COVID too.

 

[Ianno87]

Jeez, but yet Adam Hills of last leg fame tweeted that he has swapped his Melbourne lockdown for a London one, with his new show due to start I think tomorrow night, I find it hard to fathom why he would leave his wife and two kids behind there and get an exemption to leave Australia in order to present a show on channel 4, during lockdown they managed to do it via videolink, he also tweeted that 2 people in his street had sadly passed from COVID too.

Perhaps a rather generous monetary offer to do so...?

 

[hwl]

Khan was just on the news and he seemed surprisingly muted.

He has been saying it is going to get worse for a while.

who knows if a deal has been done - short notice TfL finance meeting tomorrow am...

 

[Swanny200]

Perhaps a rather generous monetary offer to do so...?

That is all I can think of but then I sometimes find it hard to understand why you would leave your wife and 2 young kids for 3 months to jet to the other side of the world when you did the last series on zoom calls.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

London, York, Essex and parts of Surrey to enter Tier 2 lockdown restrictions from midnight Saturday

Covid alert level: London, Essex, York and other areas moving to Tier 2

Millions of people face more restrictions from Saturday, including a ban on households mixing indoors.

www.bbc.co.uk

Millions of people in London, Essex, York and other areas face tougher Tier 2 Covid measures from Saturday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.
Under this "high" alert level, there is a ban on households mixing indoors, including in pubs and restaurants.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is resisting the region moving to Tier 3, ahead of a final decision on this.
More than half of England's population will now be living under high or very high-alert restrictions.
The areas to go into high alert restrictions this weekend are: London, Essex (apart from Southend and Thurrock), York, North East Derbyshire, Chesterfield, Erewash in Derbyshire, Elmbridge in Surrey, and Barrow in Furness, Cumbria.

 

[Ianno87]

That is all I can think of but then I sometimes find it hard to understand why you would leave your wife and 2 young kids for 3 months to jet to the other side of the world when you did the last series on zoom calls.

I think pretty much everybody has their eventual price point if the offer gets high enough....

 

[Howardh]

I believe Turkey & Israel tried something similar,, it clearly didn’t work in Israel as they’re still in full lockdown

It is even worse than that. Did you know that you are not even allowed to leave Australia under your own free will? Let alone allowing people in, they will not let them out. They envisage this lasting until late 2022 Even travel between Australian stated is banned and Victoria has been under a stricter lockdown than the UK for months. Masks are mandatory at all times outside your home and this is when they have a handful of cases a day! The Victorian health department even has a section of their website dedicated to advising on how many times you dog can wee outside (and notes this task should be undertaken as part of your once-daily outside excursion).

Department of Home Affairs Website

Home Affairs brings together Australia's federal law enforcement, national and transport security, criminal justice, emergency management, multicultural affairs, settlement services and immigration and border-related functions, working together to keep Australia safe.

covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au

Anecdotally I heard an Aussie cricketer (sorry, didn't get the name) currently based elsewhere is returning to Aus and has to quarantine at Perth for a fortnight, and another fortnight at Melbourne. Basically the states must have their own rules, and flights in/out of Australia curtailed to the bare minimum.