Conservative Party after the election

[AlterEgo]

at this point, boring is a very desirable situation.
Massively preferable to constant gaslighting, dog whistles, dead cats, divisive policies, deflect & blame and scandal after scandal after scandal.

Perhaps! At least Labour cannot try to gaslight us over the last 14 years. That’s a start.

 

[Cross City]

Maybe because 16 year olds are basically, in many ways, children? Do you really believe that schoolkids should be deciding who the Government is?

Don't see how it could hurt. The mental faculties of a 16 year old are probably greater than most 90+ year olds.

Is that the best argument you can offer for votes for 16 year olds? Smearing and mischaracterising people who disagree with you? Can't you offer some actual rational reasons for your views?

No, obviously it's not the best arguement. I was merely pointing out a reason why people are weirdly fragile about this.

The best reason is that they could be well into their 20s by the time they get a vote in a GE otherwise, which is stupid.

 

[Enthusiast]

Personally I'd give the vote to anybody who'd turn 18 within the next scheduled parliamentary term.

So 13 year olds will get the vote???

 

[Cross City]

So 13 year olds will get the vote???

Sure. Secondary school age is plenty old enough to know whether you enjoy the state of the country or not.

 

[telstarbox]

It‘s a long time ago, but I was paying NI and some tax when I was 16 doing part time jobs weekends and evenings plus many many extra hours in the summer holidays.

Same here, when the income tax allowance was much lower at £5k.

 

[Busaholic]

Sure. Secondary school age is plenty old enough to know whether you enjoy the state of the country or not.

So, it's 11 year olds now? The idea that a vote is about 'enjoying the state of the country' just shows the vacuity of your 'argument.'

 

[Bald Rick]

Same here, when the income tax allowance was much lower at £5k.

Rather less than that for me! I managed to clear over £400 one week, which was about 15% of the annual allowance.

 

[AlterEgo]

Sure. Secondary school age is plenty old enough to know whether you enjoy the state of the country or not.

You are surely trolling with this!

 

[M&NEJ]

Please can we discuss the Conservative party after the election, and put 16-year-olds or whatever into a separate thread?

Today's news seems to be that an opinion poll puts Reform ahead of the Conservatives by a whisker. Surely that trend is going to affect the direction of travel of the Tories!

Edit: I mean please can we discuss "the Conservative party after the election" now; not please can we have the discussion after the election.

 

[nw1]

It's interesting to speculate on what might happen.

I see Braverman is making noises about allowing Farage in into the Tory Party:

Suella Braverman says Conservatives should 'welcome' Nigel Farage to 'unite the right' | LBC

Suella Braverman has called on the Conservatives to "welcome" Nigel Farage into the party in order to "unite the right".

www.lbc.co.uk

Suella Braverman says Conservatives should 'welcome' Nigel Farage to 'unite the right'

I can't see even moderate small-c conservatives such as, for example, Duncan Smith or Mordaunt being particularly enamoured about a merger with Farage.

I wouldn't mind betting that if there are any attempts to bring Farage into the Tories, or for Farage to take the Tories over, the Tories will split into two.

A continuation Moderate Tory party which will revert back to the classic (pre-2019) era, and a new party of the hard-right containing people like Braverman, Jenrick and Patel and led by Farage. Anderson would of course be there, and so would Gullis if he somehow miraculously manages to hold his seat.

It could perhaps be called the "People's Populist Party" (PPP). I can imagine it having a logo consisting of a clenched fist protruding from a jacket with the Union Jack colours, and with "PPP" in a rather harsh and angular font.

In related news, this was quite a surprise. Best friends with Nigel, apparently. Perhaps she could replace him as PPP leader to give the party a more modern image.

Holly Valance: From Aussie pop star to Trump cheerleader

Valance got her break as a teenage Aussie soap star. Now she's fronting fundraising efforts for the Trump campaign.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[M&NEJ]

In related news, this was quite a surprise. Best friends with Nigel, apparently. Perhaps she could replace him as PPP leader to give the party a more modern image.

Holly Valance: From Aussie pop star to Trump cheerleader

Valance got her break as a teenage Aussie soap star. Now she's fronting fundraising efforts for the Trump campaign.

www.bbc.co.uk

A surprise indeed! Holly Vallance openly in denial about climate change. Quite a disappointment I think!

 

[Gloster]

I don’t know anything about Holly Valance: I had only ever heard the name and had no idea what she did. However, I have heard of Nick and Christian Candy and find it totally unsurprising that they are pro-Trump. They are not the sort of people I would like to meet on a dark night.

 

[BrianW]

Latest 'odds' regarding next Conservative leader: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader

Remember young William Hague, Rishi's Richmond predecessor, on offer at 100/1.

'He first made the national news at the age of 16 by addressing the Conservatives at their 1977 Annual National Conference. In his speech he told the delegates: "half of you won't be here in 30 or 40 years' time..., but that others would have to live with consequences of a Labour Government if it stayed in power"- from Wikipedia entry, Baron Hague of Richmond.

 

[D6130]

If the Tories suffer the predicted drubbing in the GE, I wouldn't be surprised if the more centerist MPs defect to the LibDems, while the far right loons go to Reform....thereby making the Conservative Party redundant.

 

[AlterEgo]

If the Tories suffer the predicted drubbing in the GE, I wouldn't be surprised if the more centerist MPs defect to the LibDems, while the far right loons go to Reform....thereby making the Conservative Party redundant.

We can but hope. Reform is a very nicely sized receptacle for lunatic voters. Farage will sell them all down the river anyway, which is what anyone voting for them deserves.

 

[Gloster]

My feeling is that after the election the Conservative Party is going to split in two stages. Firstly, a group of the right-wing will peel off and join Reform: how many this will be will depend on who saves their seat. The rest will divide into two factions: a rump of more moderate (that is moderate by today’s standards: fifty years ago they would have been the hard right) members and a group of the more extreme ones who will move ever further to the right.

 

[birchesgreen]

After a bad defeat it tends to take a party quite a while to realise that its not you (the electorate) its us. Starmer managing to do this with Labour within 5 years was quite good going and not usually how fast it happens!

 

[sannox]

I'm getting deja vu for the 1993 Canadian Election where a party founded a few years earlier called Reform crippled the Conservatives.

I don't think the Conservatives here will suffer as much as that election, nor will Reform do as well, but they could take enough of the Tory vote to let Labour sneak over in some constituencies.

 

[jfollows]

I don't think the Conservatives here will suffer as much as that election, nor will Reform do as well, but they could take enough of the Tory vote to let Labour sneak over in some constituencies.

Potentially many, I agree.
A prediction for my constituency, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Tatton, has Con 37%, Lab 39% & Reform 11%. I don’t live in a Brexit-UKIP-Reform hotbed of any sorts, just a regular suburban “guaranteed” Conservative seat. Not this time.

 

[nw1]

Potentially many, I agree.
A prediction for my constituency, https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Tatton, has Con 37%, Lab 39% & Reform 11%. I don’t live in a Brexit-UKIP-Reform hotbed of any sorts, just a regular suburban “guaranteed” Conservative seat. Not this time.

Been taking a look at a few seats and staggeringly, the Tories will be left with only three seats in Surrey according to Electoral Calculus.

I'd have expected Guildford, Woking and Esher and Walton Lib Dem gains, and perhaps Godalming and Ash, but most of the others are forecast LD gains too (except Kwarteng's seat which is forecast Labour, incredibly). This includes Surrey Heath though it's very marginal.

The Tory holds are mostly in the east of the county (Reigate and East Surrey) plus Runnymede and Weybridge, i.e. Phillip Hammond's old seat.

I suspect the Tories will hold on to some of the others but an interesting prediction.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Jun 2024 ==

Latest 'odds' regarding next Conservative leader: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader

Remember young William Hague, Rishi's Richmond predecessor, on offer at 100/1.

'He first made the national news at the age of 16 by addressing the Conservatives at their 1977 Annual National Conference. In his speech he told the delegates: "half of you won't be here in 30 or 40 years' time..., but that others would have to live with consequences of a Labour Government if it stayed in power"- from Wikipedia entry, Baron Hague of Richmond.

Four of the six top ones being thoroughly unpalatable.

I also see a good number of other people who are either standing down at this election or have already left Parliament. Peter Bone's unexpected comeback?

 

[SynthD]

The voting age hasn't always been 18, it was lowered from 25 to 21 to 18 for reasons not far off what I see now for 16.

The party will be pulled in all the directions suggested, but I don't think it will split or lose many. Everyone wants the name, brand, voter familiarity, local networks, and most of all the corporate sponsors who are still on board with populism. Reform will run out of Tice's money and, unless there's a replacement sugar daddy, the end to that will shrink them down to tv appearances. Lib Dem should loom larger than Reform, but won't. There will be many op-eds looking for a new direction, but the money will dictate repeating the past.

Bone's partner, who lost the by-election, is running in that seat again. I think his only comeback option is the Lords. Sunak's final list of nominations will be interesting.

 

[takno]

The party will be pulled in all the directions suggested, but I don't think it will split or lose many. Everyone wants the name, brand, voter familiarity, local networks, and most of all the corporate sponsors who are still on board with populism. Reform will run out of Tice's money and, unless there's a replacement sugar daddy, the end to that will shrink them down to tv appearances. Lib Dem should loom larger than Reform, but won't. There will be many op-eds looking for a new direction, but the money will dictate repeating the past.

This is likely, but with Reform leading them in the polls this close to an election i wouldn't be so confident. It's not unbelievably expensive to buy a political party in the current climate, and the Tories biggest sponsors seem to be people who have large public sector contracts rather than anybody who has an ideological attachment to them.

With an ageing membership and a small number of members and likely few MPs and little short money after the election it's quite possible that the whole thing essentially implodes. I'm certainly more concerned about Reform right now

 

[Gloster]

Bone's partner, who lost the by-election, is running in that seat again. I think his only comeback option is the Lords. Sunak's final list of nominations will be interesting.

She is running in East Thanet, not Wellingborough.

 

[Thirteen]

Holly Valance is married to billionaire Nick Candy. I don't think she's interested in politics but she has the resources if she ever decided to do so.

 

[M&NEJ]

Holly Vallance is married to billionaire Nick Candy. I don't think she's interested in politics but she has the resources if she ever decided to do so.

When I see the damage being done and the potentially worse damage to come, it makes me quite angry to see otherwise intelligent people deny climate change. Maybe intelligent is the operative word..?

 

[Thirteen]

When I see the damage being done and the potentially worse damage to come, it makes me quite angry to see otherwise intelligent people deny climate change. Maybe intelligent is the operative word..?

Oddly, Holly Valance did consider running in Basildon against Richard Holden. she'll probably will try and become a MP in 2029.

 

[londonbridge]

Re the voting age being lowered, you’d be happy that the 12 year old kid who killed someone with a machete would be considered mature enough to vote in four years time then?

 

[AlterEgo]

Re the voting age being lowered, you’d be happy that the 12 year old kid who killed someone with a machete would be considered mature enough to vote in four years time then?

What if they were 14 and did a knife murder? Would they be mature enough at 18? I don’t get this logic.

 

[birchesgreen]

Re the voting age being lowered, you’d be happy that the 12 year old kid who killed someone with a machete would be considered mature enough to vote in four years time then?

Most 16 years i speak to make more sense than this to be honest.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Don't see how it could hurt. The mental faculties of a 16 year old are probably greater than most 90+ year olds.

That is almost certainly true.