Conservative Party after the election

[Pete_uk]

I'm not sure the Tories will end up in third place or have less than 100 MPs, but I hope they do.

In which case it's rotten carcus will he left to rot in a dark corner. Even the hyenas will turn their noses up at it.

 

[takno]

Re the voting age being lowered, you’d be happy that the 12 year old kid who killed someone with a machete would be considered mature enough to vote in four years time then?

Most people who kill people with machetes are already over 18.

 

[M&NEJ]

Don't see how it could hurt. The mental faculties of a 16 year old are probably greater than most 90+ year olds.

I would have thought a 16-year old would vote on impulse whereas a 90-year old would possess wisdom.

 

[simonw]

I would have thought a 16-year old would vote on impulse whereas a 90-year old would possess wisdom.

I doubt it, from the 90 year olds I've interacted with. Ymmd.

 

[nw1]

Oddly, Holly Valance did consider running in Basildon against Richard Holden. she'll probably will try and become a MP in 2029.

As a Reform candidate in Basildon?

By a strange coincidence, her big hit has just played on Radio 2.

 

[gg1]

Re the voting age being lowered, you’d be happy that the 12 year old kid who killed someone with a machete would be considered mature enough to vote in four years time then?

That's definitely the most ludicrous argument I've heard against lowering the voting age.

Are you not aware that every adult ex-con in the UK is entitled to vote (assuming they are UK citizens), regardless of the seriousness of their crime?

 

[nw1]

Are you not aware that every adult ex-con in the UK is entitled to vote (assuming they are UK citizens), regardless of the seriousness of their crime?

And I'd hope so too. Banning someone from voting for life once out of prison is, IMO, going beyond the realms of acceptability. If their crime is so very serious, then make it a whole-life sentence.

 

[Busaholic]

I doubt it, from the 90 year olds I've interacted with. Ymmd.

Perhaps you never met Henry Kissinger or, more pertinently, the D-Day veterans in Normandy last week.

 

[gg1]

And I'd hope so too. Banning someone from voting for life once out of prison is, IMO, going beyond the realms of acceptability. If their crime is so very serious, then make it a whole-life sentence.

For the avoidance of doubt - that's exactly my view too.

I raised the point by way of comparison to the previous poster's comment about the 12 year old offender potentially being allowed to vote in 4 years time (as opposed to 6 years as is the case now).

 

[nw1]

For the avoidance of doubt - that's exactly my view too.

I raised the point by way of comparison to the previous poster's comment about the 12 year old offender potentially being allowed to vote in 4 years time (as opposed to 6 years as is the case now).

Yes, I thought so, just raising it as a general point.

 

[simonw]

Perhaps you never met Henry Kissinger or, more pertinently, the D-Day veterans in Normandy last week.

Perhaps you never met Henry Kissinger or, more pertinently, the D-Day veterans in Normandy last week.

I've known many ww2 participants, Including my father. I stick by my view. As to Kissinger, the less said the better.

 

[Bald Rick]

Latest 'odds' regarding next Conservative leader: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader

The Wolf has it!

That will make them even more unelectable.

 

[AlterEgo]

Perhaps you never met Henry Kissinger or, more pertinently, the D-Day veterans in Normandy last week.

Some of us have met a lot of 90 year olds!

The idea that D Day veterans well enough to make a foreign trip, and Henry Kissinger, are the median nonagenarian is a bit strange.

 

[Cowley]

The Wolf has it!

That will make them even more unelectable.

Yet another leader who comes across as irritable whenever they’re pushed in an interview.

 

[nw1]

The Wolf has it!

That will make them even more unelectable.

87027 - the loco - would make a better Tory leader. At least it wouldn't come out with reactionary invective.

 

[Whistler40145]

87027 - the loco - would make a better Tory leader. At least it wouldn't come out with reactionary invective.

Does 87027 still exist

 

[nw1]

Does 87027 still exist

Probably not, no, but if it did...

More seriously, Mordaunt seems to be the obvious choice from the front-runners. A little bit small-c conservative, but not foaming-at-the-mouth.

 

[MotCO]

I have to agree that as long as there is a possibility of Reform doing a deal, there is a chance that Labour will not get an absolute majority. It is even within bounds that a Conservative/Reform/DUP coalition could form the next government. If Reform do run a proper campaign, then I think it is almost certain that Labour will be the largest party and probably have a workable majority. Only if something truly bizarre or horrific happens can I see the Conservatives winning if Reform fight.

The latest polls show Reform doing particularly well in the North East, North West, and Yorkshire. If you add the Reform and Tory share of the vote in polls, it more or less matches the Labour share. If Rushi, in a last shake of the dice, stood down his canidates in the north, and Reform did likewise elsewhere, could we get a Reform/Tory coalition government?

 

[Whistler40145]

I sincerely hope not

 

[Cowley]

The latest polls show Reform doing particularly well in the North East, North West, and Yorkshire. If you add the Reform and Tory share of the vote in polls, it more or less matches the Labour share. If Rushi, in a last shake of the dice, stood down his canidates in the north, and Reform did likewise elsewhere, could we get a Reform/Tory coalition government?

It’s possible if they panic at the last minute I suppose. That would certainly shake things up!

 

[Stephen42]

The latest polls show Reform doing particularly well in the North East, North West, and Yorkshire. If you add the Reform and Tory share of the vote in polls, it more or less matches the Labour share. If Rushi, in a last shake of the dice, stood down his canidates in the north, and Reform did likewise elsewhere, could we get a Reform/Tory coalition government?

It's too late to get any candidates off the ballot paper, which means people need to know who the tactical vote is for. While surveys are always imperfect, a recent YouGov poll found that many Reform voters while voting Tory last time wouldn't want to vote Tory this time if no Reform candidate anyway.

Reform UK are standing candidates in nearly all constituencies, and the data shows that even if they were to stand down just 36% of their voters say they would switch to the Conservatives. Instead, 6% would vote Labour, the same proportion would go Lib Dem, 4% would switch to the Greens, and 12% to another party. Fully a quarter (26%) simply would not vote at this election in a scenario where Reform UK were not fielding a candidate for their seat.

While people's perceptions are of their own behaviour are often poor, it's hard to see Tories getting even a majority of the Reform vote based on the above. Some of the remaining Tory vote would probably be unwilling to consider Reform as well.

 

[dosxuk]

If Rushi, in a last shake of the dice, stood down his canidates in the north, and Reform did likewise elsewhere, could we get a Reform/Tory coalition government?

The Tories won't do this. They see Reform as a threat to themselves, not a potential partner. That's why they're making the suggestion that Farage comes and joins them, to try and cut the head off Reform.

 

[Gloster]

The latest polls show Reform doing particularly well in the North East, North West, and Yorkshire. If you add the Reform and Tory share of the vote in polls, it more or less matches the Labour share. If Rushi, in a last shake of the dice, stood down his canidates in the north, and Reform did likewise elsewhere, could we get a Reform/Tory coalition government?

My post was made well before the close of nominations when it was still possible that the Conservatives and Reform could do a deal, as they did in 2019. In particular I was concerned that the Conservatives might withdraw their candidates in a few constituencies where Reform would be likely to do well so that Farage, Tice and a few cronies would have a good chance of getting in. In return Reform would pull its candidates in constituencies where their presence would be more damaging to the Conservatives, but leave them in place where they are likely to damage Labour or the other opposition parties more.

Although it is still possible to make a deal, the fact that nominations have closed and names remain on the ballot paper makes any sort of deal much more difficult. Telling voters that they should vote for your party’s candidate if they live in constituency X, but they should not vote for your candidate if they live in constituency Y next door is likely to cause damaging confusion.

 

[MotCO]

The Tories won't do this. They see Reform as a threat to themselves, not a potential partner. That's why they're making the suggestion that Farage comes and joins them, to try and cut the head off Reform.

But would the Tories prefer to let Labout get in?

Don't forget, add Reform's (17%) and Tory's (18%) share of the poll together you get 35% compared with 38% for Labour. (Yougov 10/11 June; https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Sky_VI_240611.pdf)

Edit: to add poll data

 

[gg1]

But would the Tories prefer to let Labout get in?

Don't forget, add Reform's (17%) and Tory's (18%) share of the poll together you get 35% compared with 38% for Labour. (Yougov 10/11 June; https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Sky_VI_240611.pdf)

Edit: to add poll data

You do in that one specific poll but it's something of an outlier. The vast majority of polls show the combined Conservative/Reform vote being between 5 and 10% lower than Labour. The latest 'poll of polls' figure has Labour on 42%, Conservative/Reform on a combined 36%.

General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare?

How do people say they will vote in the UK general election? Our poll tracker measures the trends.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[317 forever]

If the Tories suffer the predicted drubbing in the GE, I wouldn't be surprised if the more centerist MPs defect to the LibDems, while the far right loons go to Reform....thereby making the Conservative Party redundant.

Yes, I think we are heading for a political landscape in which the centre-left party is the LibDems, the centre-right party is Labour, the far-right party is Reform, and the Conservative party is redundant.

 

[BrianW]

Am I right in thinking the next leader of the Conservative party will be chosen by those who are Conservative MPs at the time, or will the backwoods barons, Brown's 'bigots' and blue-rinse brigade call the shots?

 

[Gloster]

Am I right in thinking the next leader of the Conservative party will be chosen by those who are Conservative MPs at the time, or will the backwoods barons, Brown's 'bigots' and blue-rinse brigade call the shots?

In theory it will have the same rules as last time: the MPs put forward two candidates and the membership choose which of them they want. However, it seems that the 1922 has the power to alter the rules before the process starts.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yet another leader who comes across as irritable whenever they’re pushed in an interview.

She’s not leader yet. I do hope PM gets it. (As in PM, not the PM)

The latest polls show Reform doing particularly well in the North East, North West, and Yorkshire. If you add the Reform and Tory share of the vote in polls, it more or less matches the Labour share. If Rushi, in a last shake of the dice, stood down his canidates in the north, and Reform did likewise elsewhere, could we get a Reform/Tory coalition government?

Absolutely no chance. Even if they did, which they can’t, theyd end up with about 120 seats between them.

Am I right in thinking the next leader of the Conservative party will be chosen by those who are Conservative MPs at the time, or will the backwoods barons, Brown's 'bigots' and blue-rinse brigade call the shots?

Yes. But, of course, the ‘bar’ for winning in terms of number of MPs who need to vote for the lesder will be much, much lower than before. What I have no feel for is what the ‘make up’ of the Conservative MPs that will be elected is, ie are they more on the sensible side, or do they need special spectacles from Specsavers to correct the direction of their eyes…

 

[JonathanH]

the centre-right party is Labour

Labour is not ever intentionally going to be a 'centre-right' party. There seems to be some blurring of what are considered 'right' and 'left' policies. Some left wing policies simply won't get past the financial markets, just as the policies that Liz Truss set out to implement didn't.

I have been watching the first six hour of the BBC's 1997 election over the last few days. Paddy Ashdown corrected David Dimbleby at one point to say that the Liberal Democrats are not a party on the left.

Everyone seems to be looking for a scapegoat for the reduction in living standards, without simply recognising that we have already sold out the future.