BR Class 180 - Adelantes

[45076]

spare 221's from Avanti might be an option.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

spare 221's from Avanti might be an option.

Won't happen. It's not about deciding the 180s aren't good enough and looking for a replacement. It's about axing smaller fleets that TOCs can get by without (although it often takes some scraping of the barrel, see Southern) as a result of budget cuts.

GWR are axing Castles and 769s. Southern have axed 455s. Rumours on Facebook suggest the LNER 225s and XC HSTs are likely to be future targets.

 

[45076]

Won't happen. It's not about deciding the 180s aren't good enough and looking for a replacement. It's about axing smaller fleets that TOCs can get by without (although it often takes some scraping of the barrel, see Southern) as a result of budget cuts.

GWR are axing Castles and 769s. Southern have axed 455s. Rumours on Facebook suggest the LNER 225s and XC HSTs are likely to be future targets.

Anything that's expensive to run and maintain then.

 

[Energy]

Almost certainly nothing. The DFT don’t care about the passengers, they’ll not be the slightest bit worried about passengers being squeezed into an ever more overused fleet of 222s.

The 810s originally required 31/33 sets with some of those being double sets. Each single set has the same standard class capacity as a 7 car 222 so it isn't the end of the world if a few double services change to a single 810. Once more MML electrification is done 360s can be used further as well.

 

[RailWonderer]

The 810s originally required 31/33 sets with some of those being double sets. Each single set has the same standard class capacity as a 7 car 222 so it isn't the end of the world if a few double services change to a single 810. Once more MML electrification is done 360s can be used further as well.

No. 360s in that configuration are not suitable for anything further than Corby, so no I would dread to have to use one all the way to Nottingham. EMR didn't order enough 810s so some 222s will still be needed and can run doubled up because a single Meridian is mostly crowded.

 

[LowLevel]

Not disputing it, but where are the actual publications stating 180s will go in April? And if they are going, why not May at the timetable change?

Won't happen. It's not about deciding the 180s aren't good enough and looking for a replacement. It's about axing smaller fleets that TOCs can get by without (although it often takes some scraping of the barrel, see Southern) as a result of budget cuts.

GWR are axing Castles and 769s. Southern have axed 455s. Rumours on Facebook suggest the LNER 225s and XC HSTs are likely to be future targets.

Depends when the lease ends but it's now well known internally that the 180s will be gone by/at the May timetable change. It's not something you issue press releases about and definitely not months in advance

As for the 221s, no guarantee anything will actually come of it but the basic enquiry regarding feasibility is from a very good source so it seems likely that the questions are being asked. EMR is performing fairly well so if you have spare trains that can help support that for a fairly small investment then that's not unreasonable to progress.

It isn't a loss making by default "local" after all, it's a money making Intercity one.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Won't happen. It's not about deciding the 180s aren't good enough and looking for a replacement. It's about axing smaller fleets that TOCs can get by without (although it often takes some scraping of the barrel, see Southern) as a result of budget cuts.

GWR are axing Castles and 769s. Southern have axed 455s. Rumours on Facebook suggest the LNER 225s and XC HSTs are likely to be future targets.

Some of the many many rumours around at the moment. It's a rumour high output factory out there at the moment.

The only positive is EMR I think are second in the stats for passenger bounce back from covid, behind LNER. So hopefully this is the only cut they will see.

 

[Trainbike46]

Depends when the lease ends but it's now well known internally that the 180s will be gone by/at the May timetable change. It's not something you issue press releases about and definitely not months in advance

As for the 221s, no guarantee anything will actually come of it but the basic enquiry regarding feasibility is from a very good source so it seems likely that the questions are being asked. EMR is performing fairly well so if you have spare trains that can help support that for a fairly small investment then that's not unreasonable to progress.

It isn't a loss making by default "local" after all, it's a money making Intercity one.

While I would hope that EMR gets a replacement for the 180s, what is the logic in replacing one microfleet (the 180s) with another (221s)?

 

[LowLevel]

While I would hope that EMR gets a replacement for the 180s, what is the logic in replacing one microfleet (the 180s) with another (221s)?

While the 221s are still a different beast to the 222s, I suppose for the time being they're rather less different than the 180s are and are far less problematic.

 

[rjames87]

Surely somewhere down the line it has to become more cost effective to order the additional train. Given how long manufacturing takes, they won’t be paying for it for some time anyway, and this would solve the longer term issue.

 

[gingertom]

Surely somewhere down the line it has to become more cost effective to order the additional train. Given how long manufacturing takes, they won’t be paying for it for some time anyway, and this would solve the longer term issue.

is there an option to order additional 810s at the current price tag or has that boat long sailed?

 

[Bald Rick]

The only positive is EMR I think are second in the stats for passenger bounce back from covid, behind LNER.

But that is only because the new Corby services are carrying a lot of ex Thameslink punters from Bedford and Luton.

 

[YorkshireBear]

But that is only because the new Corby services are carrying a lot of ex Thameslink punters from Bedford and Luton.

Fair point. Had not considered that!

 

[M1544]

Grand Central has cancelled one return Bradford Interchange to London service every single day this last week. That’s 6 days in a row after not running last weekend at all.
Today the 1023 BDI to London was cancelled, then the 1523 BDI was cancelled as the inward 180106 on the inward service from London failed after arrival into Bradford. The service is rediculously unreliable now. It’s getting beyond a joke. The cancellations seemed to noticeably increase when the extra Sunderland return service was added to the timetable last year, the availability of the180s is just not sufficient for the timetabled services Grand Central attempt to operate. I cannot recall a day recently when all 4 Bradford to London services have actually run.

 

[Trainbike46]

Grand Central has cancelled one return Bradford Interchange to London service every single day this last week. That’s 6 days in a row after not running last weekend at all.
Today the 1023 BDI to London was cancelled, then the 1523 BDI was cancelled as the inward 180106 on the inward service from London failed after arrival into Bradford. The service is rediculously unreliable now. It’s getting beyond a joke. The cancellations seemed to noticeably increase when the extra Sunderland return service was added to the timetable last year, the availability of the180s is just not sufficient for the timetabled services Grand Central attempt to operate. I cannot recall a day recently when all 4 Bradford to London services have actually run.

In not too long they'll have the option of leasing extra 180s if reliability is insufficient, if they want to take on some of the ex-emr units after they leave emr

 

[Anonymous10]

With EMR wanting to bin their Class 180s by April, what will be their replacement?

Their reliability is less than impressive, with near daily faults resulting in them having to be taken out of service.

The 222s are already stretched to their limit, with some of them failing from time to time.

I’m not sure how true this is but apparently EMR are exploring the possibility of using the stored AWC 221s. Talks with Alstom have/are to be made in regards to the relevant modifications required for them, if they were to enter service with EMR.

Could they start taking tfw 175s? Which are somewhat similar to the 180s and slightly more reliable

 

[Energy]

Could they start taking tfw 175s? Which are somewhat similar to the 180s and slightly more reliable

Taking on new stock is expensive for training and sorting maintanence. The 180s to EMR is to deal with the DfTs desire for HSTs to have left ASAP otherwise they'd have probably kept the HSTs till the Hitachis arrive or 170s could have been borrowed.

 

[Spartacus]

Could they start taking tfw 175s? Which are somewhat similar to the 180s and slightly more reliable

Only 100mph, no First Class, and increasingly having their own reliability issues, which could be made a whole lot worse by running long distances at speed. That leaves aside training and them only being a max of 3 cars, so a maximum length of 6 if doubled up as the EMR 180s sometimes are.

 

[RailWonderer]

Could they start taking tfw 175s? Which are somewhat similar to the 180s and slightly more reliable

175s are only 100mph units, EMR need 125mph units for the IC operation. I think the ex-Avanti Voyagers would be the best fit, though they would most likely deactivate tilt for cost purposes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Jan 2023 ==

Only 100mph, no First Class, and increasingly having their own reliability issues, which could be made a whole lot worse by running long distances at speed. That leaves aside training and them only being a max of 3 cars, so a maximum length of 6 if doubled up as the EMR 180s sometimes are.

Midland Mainline did run 170s at 100mph to Derby and Nottingham from St Pancras pre-Meridian era though they soon replaced them as they were overcrowded and not quick enough.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Midland Mainline did run 170s at 100mph to Derby and Nottingham from St Pancras pre-Meridian era though they soon replaced them as they were overcrowded and not quick enough.

What the 170s did achieve was proving that there was a market for semi-fast services on the MML, which then gave the basis for ordering the more appropriate 222 sets. The line wasn't as busy back then, nor were linespeeds as high- so initially being 100mph max wasn't the problem it would be today.

 

[RailWonderer]

The line wasn't as busy back then, nor were linespeeds as high- so initially being 100mph max wasn't the problem it would be today.

I did not know the MML line speeds were lower back then. Were there any 125mph sections in the early 2000s or was the line upgraded at some point?

 

[Bald Rick]

Were there any 125mph sections in the early 2000s or was the line upgraded at some point?

no 125. Some areas of 110. Linespeed upgrade about 7/8 years ago, and this covered lower speed areas too.

 

[43096]

no 125. Some areas of 110. Linespeed upgrade about 7/8 years ago, and this covered lower speed areas too.

9 years now: December 2013.

 

[ThePeakNed]

Is there any potential timeframe for 180103 returning to traffic, or is it reliant on all the other knackered cars being fixed at Ilford first?

 

[43074]

But that is only because the new Corby services are carrying a lot of ex Thameslink punters from Bedford and Luton.

You keep repeating that but I must admit I'm sceptical - sure I can see there'd have been some switch to EMR Connect but the station usage stats even for 2021/2022 show Kettering and Corby for instance are virtually at pre-pandemic levels of usage (not the "done thing" to do these days but maybe EMR running a pretty good timetable has something to do with it!). What % of EMRs passenger numbers are ex Thameslink then?

Whereas the peak services from Nottingham/Sheffield used to fill up with passengers from Kettering and Wellingborough with plenty of seats on departure from Leicester, even with 10-cars running non-stop south of Leicester in the peaks they are busier than they ever were pre-Covid. I suspect there's been some customers from Sheffield etc who would otherwise have gone via Doncaster but have been attracted by faster morning services on the MML for instance.

 

[QSK19]

Whereas the peak services from Nottingham/Sheffield used to fill up with passengers from Kettering and Wellingborough with plenty of seats on departure from Leicester, even with 10-cars running non-stop south of Leicester in the peaks they are busier than they ever were pre-Covid.

Which is why I think that, on hindsight, EMR should have pushed to order more than 33 810s: to base the order on having 31 of the 33 in service was ill-advised. The theory of around half the services running as 10 car formations won’t happen - more services will be 5 car than originally thought.

As much as keeping the 180s long-term was a(n on the face of it) cheap way to mitigate the problem described above, it was never going to happen in view of the DfT cuts and their reliability.

Some more 810s need to be ordered; but I appreciate that there is probably next to no chance of this happening.

 

[Bald Rick]

You keep repeating that but I must admit I'm sceptical - sure I can see there'd have been some switch to EMR Connect but the station usage stats even for 2021/2022 show Kettering and Corby for instance are virtually at pre-pandemic levels of usage (not the "done thing" to do these days but maybe EMR running a pretty good timetable has something to do with it!). What % of EMRs passenger numbers are ex Thameslink then?

Whereas the peak services from Nottingham/Sheffield used to fill up with passengers from Kettering and Wellingborough with plenty of seats on departure from Leicester, even with 10-cars running non-stop south of Leicester in the peaks they are busier than they ever were pre-Covid. I suspect there's been some customers from Sheffield etc who would otherwise have gone via Doncaster but have been attracted by faster morning services on the MML for instance.

Corby has seen solid growth, not least due to a doubling of the service

Kettering is back where it was, partly because of the service increase, partly because there are now two trains an hour non stop to London (which was never the case before), and partly because it has attracted some passengers who used to use Wellingboro.

Bedford, Luton and Luton AP now have a consistent half hourly fast service in the peaks to St P. They didn’t have this before the change, and you just have to see how many passengers are boarding / alighting at these three to know how many have transferred from TL (almost all of them). I don’t have the numbers.

Your point about Sheffield services attracting people from the ECML may well be true, but that just adds to my point, ie these are passengers who have transferred. Of course there is some growth as well, I’m not suggesting there isn’t.

 

[Trainbike46]

Corby has seen solid growth, not least due to a doubling of the service

Kettering is back where it was, partly because of the service increase, partly because there are now two trains an hour non stop to London (which was never the case before), and partly because it has attracted some passengers who used to use Wellingboro.

Bedford, Luton and Luton AP now have a consistent half hourly fast service in the peaks to St P. They didn’t have this before the change, and you just have to see how many passengers are boarding / alighting at these three to know how many have transferred from TL (almost all of them). I don’t have the numbers.

Your point about Sheffield services attracting people from the ECML may well be true, but that just adds to my point, ie these are passengers who have transferred. Of course there is some growth as well, I’m not suggesting there isn’t.

of course, if some shifting from LNER to EMR has happened that is not exactly a bad thing, as LNER's recovery numbers are better than EMR

The fact that LNER and EMR are offering a better service is undoubtedly part of the reason why the recovery at both of them has been so much better than at say Avanti

 

[Bald Rick]

The fact that LNER and EMR are offering a better service is undoubtedly part of the reason why the recovery at both of them has been so much better than at say Avanti

There is definitely evidence that Avanti’s woes have caused people to switch to LNER and EMR too.

 

[Trainbike46]

There is definitely evidence that Avanti’s woes have caused people to switch to LNER and EMR too.

Udoubtedly, If I was in a place where both made sense, I would prefer LNER/EMR over Avanti too

And of course with Avanti trains regularly showing up as "sold out" (or, on some websites, not available for booking), that will undoubtedly shift passengers to LNER/EMR services where those do show up as available

To be honest, for some connections I wouldn't even be surprised if people were shifting to XC or even GWR.

Personally, I have used LNWR+XC+GWR instead of Avanti (though admittedly, that was during a signal failure at Watford Junction, so not really avanti's fault)